Since there are only four matchups set in stone for now, I will cover all four in this article and explain what each model’s projection is for all of the first round games.
The College Football Playoff First-Round edition of “TSI vs the Field” takes my proprietary college football model, the T Shoe Index, to compare and contrast with other respected predictive models – SP+, FPI, and Sagarin – to find where we align and disagree on the college football schedule. There are college football betting opportunities based on model alignment and games where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankingsare the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
College Football Playoff Model Projections
Oregon (-21.5) vs James Madison, O/U 50.5
In the first of two matchups featuring Power 4 teams vs Group of Five teams, Oregon will host the Dukes of James Madison in Eugene. This line movement has been one way in favor of the Ducks and there’s really no signs of this line settling anytime soon, as some offshores have already moved the line to 23.5 as of Thursday morning. However, our average model projection for this game is just Oregon -16, indicating a huge discrepancy between the metrics and the market. TSI and SP+ both make the line around 15, while FPI and Sagarin are more around -17 for the Ducks.
JMU coach Bob Chesney is set to take the UCLA job after the season but will be with the team for its playoff run, so perhaps that is influencing the market some, but I think people generally just think a G5 team is not going to be able to keep up with an elite P4 team like Oregon (see: Boise State vs Penn State last year). The models aren’t so sure.
Model Consensus Pick: James Madison +21.5
Texas A&M (-3.5) vs Miami, O/U 51.5
It was a suspenseful “selection Sunday” for Miami, but alas, they are in the College Football Playoff and will travel to College Station to take on the Texas A&M Aggies as 3.5-point underdogs. If you recall from my Monday article, this was the one game I had an early bet on, and the line has already moved in our favor on the Hurricanes. The other models agree with TSI here as well, with FPI projecting a pick ‘em, SP+ projects A&M -2 and Sagarin actually has Miami favored by a half point. So, our average model projection is A&M -0.7, indicating getting the field goal plus the hook is great value on the Hurricanes.
Model Consensus Pick: Miami +3.5
Oklahoma vs Alabama (-1), O/U 40.5
This game doesn’t have quite the consensus the first two games have, as far as the model projections go. Only FPI, which projects Alabama -1.3, has the Tide covering the current number, though TSI (Bama -0.5) and Sagarin (pick ‘em), are right around the market, which has flipped from OU as a favorite to Bama as a favorite. SP+ is the outlier here, making Oklahoma a 2.8-point favorite at home. There are online rumors that Alabama QB Ty Simpson is not 100% healthy, so I do wonder if there will be some market movement based on the evolution of that news over the next week or so. For now, I think this game is a stay-away.
Ole Miss (-17.5) vs Tulane, O/U 56.5
Here is the second of our two P4/G5 matchups in the playoff, and the market is backing the Rebels in a rematch of these teams, with Ole Miss dominating the first game earlier this year. Bettors seem to think it’s going to be more of the same with such talent and schedule strength gap. The models, though, again, are leaning towards the underdog in this one. TSI is the most Tulane-friendly, making the game just Ole Miss -13, while FPI, Sagarin and SP+ all are between 16 and 17.5, which is about where the market has been since opening.
The average projection is 15.8 in favor of the Rebels, but none of the models actually have them fully covering the 17.5 line currently available. Of note, Tulane coach Jon Sumrall has taken the Florida job and is actively performing the duties of both roles at the moment, so that at least should factor into your analysis of this game due to the potential preparation impact it could have on the Green Wave.
Model Consensus Pick: Tulane +17.5
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
