College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Predictions
We’re just two days away from the first CFP quarterfinal game of the 2025 season, with the other three games to follow on Thursday. As has been the case all season, TSI has you covered with projections on sides and totals for all these games. There are plenty of storylines to go around, as Miami seeks revenge for the 2002 national championship game against Ohio State, New CFP blood Indiana looks to knock out perennial powerhouse Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss will rematch their regular season classic – albeit without Lane Kiffin on the Rebels’ sideline, and Texas Tech will look to make a splash against last year’s #1 seed, Oregon. Now, let’s get to the projections from the T Shoe Index.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T-Score Index, a full explanation can be found here.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-9.5), O/U 42.5
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Ohio State lost its last game before the playoff, which has prompted national fans and media to effectively say, “See! They aren’t that good, they just haven’t played anyone!” The Buckeyes will look to rebound from a Big Ten Championship Game loss to Indiana en route to winning a second straight title. Miami, however, is eager to prove they’re going to be a mainstay in the CFP under Mario Cristobal, despite losing to respectable-but-not-elite opponents in Louisville and SMU. TSI projects Ohio State -8 with a total of 50; however, I’m not rushing to bet the over because over these teams’ last 3 games, I’d only project this total around 36, which puts the current O/U of 42.5 right in the middle. I’m not sure how Miami is going to score many points on this Ohio State defense, but the question is how many points the Ohio State offense can muster after just 10 points against Indiana, thanks to two empty redzone trips. Miami will similarly need to stymie the Buckeyes’ red zone attack if they want to keep this game within a possession heading into crunch time; although the Buckeyes are #1 in net red zone scoring %, while Miami is 7th.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers (-6.5), O/U 48
Alabama has been a CFP mainstay since 2014, but most of that success was under Nick Saban. Now, Kalen DeBoer will look to prove his merit as the Tide’s coach after securing his first CFP win on the road at Oklahoma in the opening round. Indiana, making its second consecutive CFP appearance, this time as the 1 seed, will look to prove their 13-0 record is for real and that they’re truly the best team in the country. TSI projects Indiana -11.5 with a total of 52. I think the market is still selling the Hoosiers short, and TSI has been dialed in on them all year, projecting them to win outright at Oregon and vs. Ohio State (both correct projections). I’m going to lay the 6.5 with Indiana, who has at least a 9-point edge in every metric I look at.
Bet: Indiana -6.5
Ole Miss Rebels vs Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5), O/U 56
The first time these teams met, Ole Miss controlled the game for three quarters until the ‘dogs came alive in the fourth and won a close game. This time, the Rebels won’t have Lane Kiffin on the sidelines as he’s bolted for Baton Rouge. That wasn’t a factor in their first game against Tulane, as Ole Miss dominated, but this Georgia team is peaking at the right time and will be no easy task for Pete Goulding’s group. TSI projects Georgia -2.5 with a total of 56. Circa has moved the line to 7, but it’s not widely available yet. If you can get a 7 with Ole Miss, I’d take it. Georgia is playing great ball right now, and I do think they likely win the game, but I think it’ll be another – pardon the pun – dog fight.
Bet: Ole Miss +7 or better
Oregon Ducks (-2.5) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders, O/U 51.5
This is the tightest spread of the quarterfinals, and I’m really intrigued to see how Texas Tech performs on this stage. In Oregon’s quarterfinal game last year as the 1 seed, they got demolished by Ohio State. The Ducks looked good offensively against James Madison but did give up a ton of yards and probably too many points for Dan Lanning to feel great about his team’s opening round performance. Texas Tech has to be eager to show their season wasn’t a fluke or a result of a perceived weak conference. In fact, TSI actually favors the Raiders by a half point here, with a total of 49.5. If Dan Lanning loses this game, I think there will be real and justifiable questions about his big game coaching until he wins a couple of these types of games. I think the Under is a good play here, and if Oregon gets pushed out to -3, I’d grab Texas Tech plus the points.
Bet: Under 51.5
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