College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Best Bets from Matt Youmans:

An expanded College Football Playoff bracket meant more games, but it did not guarantee more great games. The first round resulted in no instant classics and four blowouts, so while that aspect was disappointing, it should not have been too surprising considering the four games were played at some of the strongest home fields (Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas and Ohio State) in the nation. The underdogs were dead, losing by an average margin of 19.3 points. SMU, which did not deserve to be in the playoffs, and Tennessee proved to be the weakest teams in the field. The quarterfinal round is staged at neutral sites and these matchups will be more competitive, so here are my CFB best bets for next week:

 

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Penn State (-11) vs. Boise State

Fiesta Bowl

Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Ashton Jeanty is the nation’s leading rusher with 2,497 yards (192 per game), and the Broncos are perceived to be a one-trick pony express, but that perception is not the truth. Maddux Madsen is a capable passer who does not make big mistakes. Madsen, who has 22 touchdown passes with only three interceptions, will need to make plays to create space and loosen up a Penn State defense that will focus first on containing Jeanty. Boise played two ranked opponents this season, beating UNLV twice and falling 37-34 at Oregon on Sept. 7. It’s possible the Mountain West champions will step up in class and get outclassed by the Big Ten’s third-best team, but the Broncos are solid enough on defense to stay in this game.

Penn State’s ability to run and wear down the Boise defense with two stud backs, Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, will likely be the difference. Allen and Singleton combined for 24 carries and 229 yards in a 45-37 loss to Oregon in the conference title game. The Nittany Lions were not bullies away from home and survived close calls at USC (33-30 in overtime) and Minnesota (26-25) in Big Ten play. Penn State’s most impressive performance was probably its loss to Oregon, and the same goes for Boise. There does not appear to be a big gap between these teams and my number is Nittany Lions -8, so I’ll take the points on New Year’s Eve.

College Football Best Bet: Boise State +11

Texas (-13.5) vs. Arizona State

Peach Bowl

Wednesday, 1:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The Longhorns, 12-2 with both losses to Georgia, have few weaknesses and can be scary to bet against because of their dominant run defense. However, the Texas defense did not look bulletproof in the first round, a 38-24 victory over Clemson. The Tigers rolled up 412 total yards with Cade Klubnik passing for 336 yards and two touchdowns. Sun Devils freshman Sam Leavitt is a rising star who has accounted for 29 touchdowns, including 24 through the air with only five interceptions. The workhorse is obviously senior running back Cam Skattebo, who averaged 164.7 yards on the ground in the last three games. Arizona State has been underrated all season. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is overrated. The Longhorns will grind out the win, but this is a big number to cover on a neutral field.

College Football Best Bet: Arizona State +13.5

Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Oregon

Rose Bowl

Wednesday, 5:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The nation’s No. 1 team is an underdog, and the Ducks don’t need more motivation, but that’s a slight that should be a motivational factor. In Oregon’s 32-31 victory over Ohio State in October, the teams proved to be about as evenly matched as it gets. The Ducks held a 496-467 edge in total yards, and the Buckeyes mismanaged the clock and blew a shot to win in the final minute. Ohio State rebounded from its pitiful performance in a loss to Michigan and overwhelmed Tennessee in the first round to get its swagger back. Buckeyes coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly learned from their stubborn play-calling mistakes against the Wolverines and opened the playbook to crush the Volunteers. Will Howard played like a more confident quarterback, and Howard can spread the ball around to receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka and running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Ohio State will be tough to stop, so Oregon will need to win another shootout.

The Ducks have a few advantages, starting with Dillon Gabriel, the most reliable quarterback in the nation. Gabriel passed for 341 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting with the Buckeyes and threw for 283 yards and four touchdowns against Penn State. Gabriel is a better bet than Howard, and Dan Lanning is a better coach than Day. A three-week layoff could be detrimental to the Ducks, but they should benefit by staying on the West Coast for this game in Pasadena. I prefer to side with Gabriel in a shootout, and I’ll buy the half-point to +3 as insurance while expecting the rematch to be another cliffhanger.

College Football Best Bets: Oregon +3 (-135) and Over 55

Notre Dame vs. Georgia (-2)

Sugar Bowl

Wednesday, 8:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The wild card on New Year’s Day in New Orleans will be Gunner Stockton, Georgia’s sophomore backup quarterback who’s stepping in for injured Carson Beck. Stockton helped the Bulldogs beat Texas 22-19 in overtime in the SEC title game, and he might actually be an upgrade from Beck, who had a disappointing season. The Bulldogs were outgained 389-277 by the Longhorns and were lucky to win, but Stockton has had three weeks to run the first-team offense and prepare for this start, so there’s no reason to expect he will flop. There are also plenty of reasons to believe in Georgia coach Kirby Smart when he’s got extra time to game plan for an opponent.

Still, Notre Dame should have the edge at quarterback with veteran Riley Leonard. The Fighting Irish are more effective on the ground with Leonard and explosive running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Love busted loose for a 98-yard touchdown run in the first round against Indiana, yet he had only 10 yards on his other seven carries. The Notre Dame defense ranks No. 3 in scoring (13.8 ppg) behind Ohio State and Texas. The Irish offense is a concern, so Leonard will need to be a superstar to win this game. I have a bet on Notre Dame at 10-1 odds to win the CFP and that’s basically my bet on this game. I’m not as confident in the Irish as I was a few weeks ago and more confident in this being a low-scoring slugfest similar to Georgia’s rematch with Texas.

College Football Best Bet: Notre Dame-Georgia Under 44.5

Season record: 39-39-2 against the spread

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