The College Football Playoff semifinal games scheduled for Thursday and Friday feature four iconic brands in college football history, surely everything the committee was hoping for in this first season of expanded playoff action. 

 

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They weren’t the top-seeded teams in the bracket, and in fact were seeded 5-8. They each advanced to this point by winning a home opening-round game and then a quarterfinal against a team that had enjoyed a bye the week prior. In that sense, congratulations to anyone who still has a “perfect bracket” to this point. That said, perhaps these teams were meant to be here as they represent three of the top four and five of the top nine when it comes to my regular-season-ending power ratings. Still, for as much history and tradition as each of these programs offers, the matchups will be unfamiliar ones as Notre Dame and Penn State haven’t met since 2007, while Texas and Ohio State haven’t squared off since 2009. 

Oddsmakers expect the games to be quite competitive based on the odds. Ohio State seems to be the most respected team of the four after two dominant playoff wins to date, but the matchup against a more physical team than they’re used to facing in Texas should be a noteworthy challenge. Let’s take a quick look at some of the key trends for these matchups and my take on both games.

This is just a sampling of what you can find on the matchups pages of VSiN.com, and there are plenty of other great trends on sides and totals, as well as stats, my strength ratings, game logs, betting splits and much more. 

– NOTRE DAME has won its last 13 games ATS versus power conference opponents
– NOTRE DAME is on a 14-2-1 ATS surge versus AP Top 25 foes
For anyone who has questioned Notre Dame’s ability to compete against the elite teams, these trends are eye-openers. This includes a 10-0 ATS mark versus Power 4 teams in the 2024-25 season, with wins over Big Ten foes Purdue and USC by a combined margin of 115-42. 

– PENN STATE is just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 games versus teams outscoring opponents by 7.0+ PPG
– PENN STATE is on a 15-25 ATS skid versus AP Top 10 foes
Keep in mind that both of these trends include wins in each of the Nittany Lions’ first two playoff games. However, considering that SMU was a Group of 5 team prior to this season, and Boise State is still, Notre Dame will be a different level test for Penn State. 

– OHIO STATE is on a 13-2 ATS run against teams ranked higher than them in the AP Poll
– OHIO STATE is on a 5-1 ATS surge versus dominant teams outscoring opponents by 15.0+ PPG
These are remarkable trends considering the makeup of the teams that represent the opponents of the Buckeyes in both angles. With as good as Ohio State has been in recent years, matchups against teams ranking higher are rare.  

– TEXAS is on a 12-2-1 ATS run versus shutdown defenses allowing 5.9 yards per pass attempt or less
– TEXAS is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 tries versus high-scoring offenses putting up 32.0 PPG or more
These are conflicting trends, obviously, but they show that the Longhorns have no problem against good defenses, but they do struggle to cover point spreads against teams that can put up points. I imagine in the latter trend that Texas was favored more often than not.

These are some of the top trends bowl game trends affecting the two semifinal games.

* Including a 2-0 SU and ATS record in 2025 so far in bowl games, INDEPENDENT TEAMS are on remarkable bowl game stretches of 18-7 SU in the last 25 and 17-6 ATS in the last 23.
This record does not include Notre Dame’s CFP first-round win over Indiana, but in general, the Irish’s resurgence in bowl games has been a boon to the independent ranks. They are on a three-game SU and ATS winning streak in bowl games, all against power conference foes. 

* BIG TEN teams are on a 9-5 ATS run in bowl games as an underdog
This trend would of course apply to Penn State in the Orange Bowl versus Notre Dame. This includes a 4-2 ATS record for the 2024-25 bowl season, one of the games in which teams faced one another. The Big Ten has played itself into greater prominence this bowl season. Can the Nittany Lions pull the upset and set up a potential all-Big Ten championship game?

* BIG TEN teams are 3-1 SU and ATS vs. SEC teams in bowl games this year, all as underdogs. Heading into the 2024 bowl season, the SEC was on a 24-9 SU and 21-11-1 ATS run in the matchup, including 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS as an underdog
This conference matchup will be a real test for Ohio State, as the Buckeyes are just 1-5 SU & ATS in their last six bowl games when favored over the SEC. This does not include the home playoff matchup versus Tennessee, a game in which coach Ryan Day’s team was clearly physically superior. 

* UNDERDOGS are 14-7 ATS in the Orange Bowl dating to 2004 but are just 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four
This trend would favor Penn State for 2025, but keep in mind, the last four games have all been decisive, with the smallest victory margin being 14 points. Also, there hasn’t been a closing line of a field goal or less in any Orange Bowl since 2014. 

* FAVORITES are on runs of 7-2 SU and ATS and 11-4 SU and ATS in the Cotton Bowl, but they have lost two straight
This is in direct contradiction to the trend for the Orange Bowl in that favorites have dominated long term but underdogs have picked it up recently. The favorite trend would benefit Ohio State. However, keep in mind that the Buckeyes were in this same bowl game (not a playoff game of course) and lost to Missouri 14-3 as four-point favorites. 

* OUTRIGHT WINNERS are on a 21-0-1 ATS run in the last 22 Cotton Bowl games
If you got to read any of the bowl game trends I published on VSiN over the last month, you can probably recall that there are some bowl series in which the outright winner of the games has covered the point spread more than 20 times in a row. This is one of them. To put it frankly, games have been decisive. In fact, before the last two games won by dogs outright and ATS, the chalk had converted seven straight games, with an average score of 35.9-13. That would lend credence to the belief that if Ohio State wins, it will also cover. 

* NOTRE DAME is on winning streaks of six games outright and four games ATS as a bowl game favorite
This does not include the Indiana victory in the first round of the playoffs but is still a testament to how focused the Irish have been in postseason games when considered to be the “better team” by oddsmakers. Don’t forget, coach Marcus Freeman’s team wound up a one-point favorite over Georgia in the quarterfinals.

* OHIO STATE is just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS versus the SEC in bowl games since 1993
Although this is the first year that Texas is an SEC team, this trend is still very troubling, especially with the Buckeyes sitting as comfortable favorites. 

* PENN STATE is just 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS as a bowl game underdog since 1998
This trend includes a 1-5 outright mark in the last six tries, and three straight losses under coach James Franklin. It’s much of the reason he has earned the mocking nickname “Big Game James,” for his lack of “big game” success. 

* TEXAS has won three straight bowl games outright versus Big Ten foes but is on a four-game ATS skid in such games
The Longhorns have played four bowl games versus Big Ten foes since 1997. They were favored in all of them, including a 24-21 2009 Fiesta Bowl win over Ohio State as nine-point favorites. How will coach Steve Sarkisian’s team do with an “underdog mentality” versus a Big Ten foe? 

Steve’s takes on the CFP Semifinal Games

I closed the bowl season with a 22-22-1 record on Best Bets and a 42-21-1 ATS record picking all of the games in our CFP Bowl/Playoff Guide. I was pleased with how I ended the year, however, hitting six out of seven in the 2025 games, including 3-0 in the CFP quarterfinals. In any case, my season-long record on Best Bets has landed at 149-138-6 ATS (51.9%) with the three remaining high-stakes games still to come. With that in mind, here are my Best Bets for the two CFP semifinal games: 

Notre Dame vs. Penn State

Capital One Orange Bowl – Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida

Thursday, January 9, 7:30 p.m. ET

My Best Bets in both of these semifinal games will come down to strength ratings, as I believe the strong tend to survive when we get to this point in a college football season. The teams are so prepared that rarely do we see anything that significantly upsets the proceedings. With that in mind, as I look at my strength ratings for Notre Dame-Penn State, I see that my Power Ratings show the number essentially right where it should be. My PR says ND -2.6, and the real line is -2.5. My Effective Strength Ratings and Bettors Ratings, however, tell a different story, that being that the Irish are underpriced by at least 1.2 points. My ESRs have Notre Dame -5, and my BRs have ND -3.7. I believe this Irish team has been undervalued nearly all season long, or at least since their loss to Northern Illinois. While inexcusable, the defeat clearly served as a wake-up call as they’ve gone 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS since. USC was the only opponent to put up more than 24 points on the Irish defense all season long, and that unit is the single most underrated group of any left in the CFP semifinals. They hold teams about 19 points below their season average, and the only team that Penn State has faced this season that has exceeded that was Ohio State. Keep in mind, minus the interception return for a TD that game, Penn State scored six points. I’m not saying that James Franklin’s offense will be held that much in check, but I do have legitimate concerns about their ability to move the ball consistently on Notre Dame. I see this game as a defensive battle won by the Irish, say 23-17.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll go Notre Dame -2.5 and Under 45.5

Ohio State vs. Texas

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic – AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas

Friday, January 10, 7:30 p.m. ET

Have the ratings moved too much for this game based on what has happened in the last couple of weeks? Going into the playoffs, with both teams off of losses to end their seasons, I had Texas at a 67.5 power rating, and Ohio State at 67. Taking into account road/neutral field ratings, my Power Rating line at that time for this matchup would have been Texas -0.2. Now after two very impressive Buckeyes wins and two lesser wins for the Longhorns, we find the actual line at Ohio State -6? Can lines really move that much in two weeks for two elite teams? Let’s not forget, Texas played a pretty strong game against Clemson and out of the gate appeared to be on pace for a rout of Arizona State. I don’t think that much has changed in terms of where the teams stand now and where they did on December 20. For that reason, my current power rating line shows OSU -2.3, with my Effective Strength line being OSU -1.6 and my Bettors Ratings line being OSU -3.6. All three show that the line is overpriced. As for the actual matchup, remember that Buckeyes QB Will Howard struggled against the two physically imposing defenses he faced this year in Michigan and Penn State. In fact, I think Texas presents a far more physical challenge for Ohio State than either of the first two playoff foes did. Tennessee and Oregon were more about offensive creativity and speed/athleticism. While Texas has the latter, it also can physically match up with Ohio State. Oh, and the Longhorns are in their home state and also have the motivation of being disrespected as a rather sizable underdog. This is just the third time in three years that they will have played as dogs, both priors coming against Alabama. They were 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS in those games. I expect Texas to be a very live underdog. Let’s say Ohio State 28, Texas 27.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Texas +6 with a lesser lean on Over 53.5

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