The College Football Playoff Final Four is set, as we’ll have Miami vs. Ole Miss in one semifinal and Oregon vs. Indiana in the other. For those who are actually keeping track of the names of these bowls during the CFP, it will be the Hurricanes and Rebels in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Thursday, January 8 and the Ducks and Hoosiers in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Friday, January 9.
Having a bye was a big talking point while Ohio State and Texas Tech were putting up offensive offensive performances, but there are no long layoffs now, as the Hurricanes get one extra day of rest and prep over their opponent from having played on New Year’s Eve, but all four teams are playing about a week after their last games.
As has been the case in each round of the CFP, we’re getting a regular season rematch here, as the Hoosiers already beat the Ducks in Eugene and will now look to do so in Atlanta with a berth in the National Championship Game on the line. Miami and Ole Miss did not play each other.
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College Football Playoff Semifinals Odds Report
Lines as of Thursday, January 1 at 9:45 p.m. PT
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: Miami (-3, 51.5) vs. Ole Miss
Thursday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
There was not nearly as much consternation about Miami making the field of 12 as there was about Alabama, but there were certainly some naysayers. And it was kind of tough to argue against that opinion, as the Hurricanes lost to Louisville and SMU during the regular season, two teams that never made it past No. 15 in the polls and were unranked at the time Miami played them.
Through two CFP games for Mario Cristobal’s team, we’ve seen a ferocious defense coupled with just enough offense thanks to some fine adjustments from OC Shannon Dawson to get them through to this point. The Hurricanes have held Texas A&M and Ohio State to 17 points and those offenses both averaged nearly 35 PPG during the regular season. Indiana’s offense performance in the Rose Bowl put to rest some of the “rust” narrative.
Miami was simply better prepared than Ohio State, including the pick-six that came one play after Julian Sayin failed to see a wide-open Max Klare for what would have been a game-tying score. But, as great as the Miami defense has been, the offense hasn’t done much. The Hurricanes have been outgained in both of their CFP wins and Carson Beck has only thrown for 241 yards. Mark Fletcher Jr. has 262 rushing yards, but he did have 80 of his 172 yards against Texas A&M on two of his 17 attempts. The Hurricanes had zero plays of 20+ yards against Ohio State.
Time will tell if the Hurricanes got fortunate that Ole Miss beat Georgia or not. The Rebels erased a 21-12 deficit at halftime against the Bulldogs to get revenge for their regular season defeat. Furthermore, they outgained Georgia by 130 yards and proved the tremendous value of special teams with three long field goals from Lucas Carneiro.
Even though Lane Kiffin left in a very public, very ugly manner, Ole Miss seems to have used his departure as a rallying cry. The game against Tulane, a team that the Rebels trounced 45-10 in the regular season, was one thing, but outlasting Georgia and doing so while battling adversity throughout the game was really impressive.
This is such a fascinating matchup because Trinidad Chambliss can run just enough to be effective against the Miami pass rush and their stellar front four. And Ole Miss has plenty of explosive athletes in space. Kewan Lacy is definitely not healthy, but he gutted out nearly 100 yards in the win over Georgia. Truth be told, I cannot wait to see which way this line goes with both teams a long way from home in Glendale, AZ.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Oregon vs. Indiana (-4, 47)
Friday, Jan. 9, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Hoosiers were a touchdown underdog when they traveled across three time zones to take on the Ducks in Eugene. Going into that game, many of us recalled what happened to an undefeated Indiana team when they went to Ohio State last season and got pushed around in a very lopsided 38-15 loss. Well, this version of Cignetti’s team is much stronger and has answered the bell in all 14 games thus far.
That 30-20 win for Indiana was hardly an offensive shootout, despite what the 50 points would suggest. The teams combined for just 593 yards and had 3.0 and 2.7 yards per carry, respectively, as the Hoosiers found just a little more success on the ground. Oregon only had 13 offensive points, as a pick-six from Orange Bowl hero Brandon Finney Jr. accounted for the Ducks’ only TD of the final three quarters.
Indiana, meanwhile, had three 75-yard TD drives, including a magnificent answer going 12 plays and 6:19 on their next possession after the pick-six. That drive feels like a microcosm of Cignetti’s team, as they are mean, unfazed, and very detail-oriented.
We’ve seen two disparate performances from the Ducks defense in the CFP, as they gave up over 500 yards to James Madison, albeit some with the reserves in the game, but then locked down against the Red Raiders with four takeaways, four sacks, and just 215 yards allowed.
It does seem concerning that Oregon couldn’t run the ball in the first game against Indiana and then had 1.4 yards per carry on 47 rushing attempts against Texas Tech, who had the best run defense in the nation.
We’ll have to see how bettors approach both side and total here on the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which likely helps the Ducks offense a little bit, though OC Will Stein and DC Tosh Lupoi are still doing double duty at Kentucky and Cal, respectively, especially with the transfer portal now open.
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