College football expert betting picks for Week 11
Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews
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(odds as of November 9, 10:35 p.m. PT)
Alabama (-11; 47) at Kentucky
The Crimson Tide now controls its destiny in the SEC West with victories over Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and pulling away in the second half vs. LSU last week. Now Alabama pays a rare visit to Lexington to face Kentucky in an early noon ET kickoff.
Last week was the first time Alabama played a complete game offensively against an opponent with a pulse, but it was against an LSU defense that ranks No. 12 out of 14 teams in the SEC and is No. 96 nationally.
Alabama has caught its fair share of breaks as well, having barely escaped at Texas A&M, only beating Arkansas, who has since fired its defensive coordinator, by three and trailing Tennessee by two touchdowns at halftime.
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops and defensive coordinator Brad White play a great deal of zone and give up the underneath stuff to take away mobile quarterbacks. The Wildcats defense held Akron’s DJ Irons to 30 yards on 13 carries, Missouri’s Brady Cook to 40 yards on 10 carries, Tennessee’s Joe Milton to 26 yards on 10 carries, and Mississippi State’s Mike Wright to 20 yards on 11 carries. Yes, Jalen Milroe is certainly an upgrade from the above list, but he could get confused by the zone and end up taking sacks or forcing a turnover.
The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five as conference home dogs of more than 4 points. Meanwhile, Alabama is 4-8 ATS over the last three years in true road games.
Bet: Kentucky +11 (Play to +10)
Virginia Tech (-1; 49) at Boston College
Boston College has won five games in a row and is now bowl eligible after a 1-3 start that included a home loss to a now 4-6 Northern Illinois team, a 3-point escape vs. FCS Holy Cross, a close call in the "red bandana" game vs. Florida State and a blowout loss at Louisville.
BC’s five-game winning streak includes victories over 2-8 Virginia, at 3-6 Army, at 5-4 Georgia Tech, who might be the most up-and-down program in FBS, vs. 1-8 UConn, and at 4-5 Syracuse, who is currently on a five-game losing streak. BC’s average margin of victory in these last five games is just 7 PPG.
Virginia Tech also started at 1-3 and crawled back to 4-5. The Hokies lost 31-3 at Louisville last weekend but can bounce back here against a BC team that is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as home chalk.
Bet: Virginia Tech -1 (Play to -2.5)
Michigan (-4.5; 45) at Penn State
As Michigan awaits results from the NCAA’s investigation regarding allegations of off-campus scouting and signal stealing by a former Wolverines staffer, the No. 3 team at last plays a team with a pulse traveling to Happy Valley to face No. 10 Penn State.
The nickname "Big Game James" refers to Los Angeles Lakers legend James Worthy, and unfortunately for Penn State fans, that moniker has not fit James Franklin as he is just 5-10 ATS in his career vs. Top 5 teams.
Franklin does have the nation’s No. 2 Total Defense (Michigan is No. 1) and the nation’s No. 1 Rush Defense that will force JJ McCarthy to make plays down the field against an elite Penn State secondary.
Penn State finally started to throw the ball down the field last week at Maryland, and Drew Allar had his best game throwing the football since the opener vs. West Virginia.
The Nittany Lions were in this situation three weeks ago, rolling off a soft schedule and then having to play a tough opponent on the road and getting behind early at Ohio State. Michigan likely does the same here.
Bet: Penn State +4.5 (Play to +4)
Texas Tech at Kansas (-4; 62)
Kansas is off two consecutive big victories as underdogs, having defeated Oklahoma and winning at Iowa State last weekend.
Everything has come up Jayhawks this season, while Texas Tech, who many predicted would be the Big XII sleeper this season, has had a multitude of injuries (particularly at quarterback) and some hard luck.
However, Behren Morton returned last week and led the Red Raiders to a 35-28 victory over TCU.
Texas Tech is 4-5 and needs this one for bowl eligibility, and Kansas is in the Iowa State and Kansas State sandwich spot here.
Bet: Texas Tech +4 (Play to +3.5)
Old Dominion at Liberty (-14; 60)
With a 9-0 start, the Liberty Flames make their debut in the Top 25 this week.
Liberty romped 56-30 over Louisiana Tech and clinched a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game, while Old Dominion lost 28-24 to Coastal Carolina, who was down to its third-string QB.
The Flames rank No. 97 in passing yards allowed and have allowed over 300 passing yards in each of the last three games. However, they lead the nation with 16 interceptions, which is due for regression.
ODU has covered six straight games as a dog, and each of its last eight games has been decided by seven points or less.
Bet: Old Dominion +14 (Play to +13)
NC State (-2.5; 43) at Wake Forest
The Wolfpack clinched a bowl berth last week with a win over Miami.
NC State has defeated Clemson and Miami in back-to-back weeks as home underdogs and now are in the role of road favorites off two fluke wins.
Clemson had a 364-202 yardage edge but came up short due to a 2-0 turnover deficit, including a critical pick-six. They also turned it over on downs on the potential game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter.
The following week, Miami outgained NC State, 292-231, but couldn’t overcome four turnovers with an injured Tyler Van Dyke and a turnover on downs at the goal line to take the lead in the fourth quarter.
Now, the Wolfpack must return to Brennan Armstrong as MJ Morris, after going 3-1 as a starter, elected to redshirt.
Wake Forest is in a must-win situation for bowl eligibility. The good news for the Demon Deacons is that the home team is 14-2 SU and ATS in the last 16 in this series. Plus, Dave Clawson is 51-38-1 ATS as an underdog.
Bet: Wake Forest +2.5
Miami (FL) at Florida State (-14.5; 51.5)
The underdog is on an 18-7 ATS run in this series, but Florida State (-7.5) humiliated Miami 45-3 last year.
Now, Florida State, currently rated No. 4, is in the catbird’s seat in the College Football Playoff rankings and is facing a Hurricanes team that has fallen to 6-3 and are finishing out a disappointing season.
However, Miami should be able to get motivated to ruin the Noles’ perfect season, and the U still rates Top 20 nationally in total defense.
Bet: Miami (FL) +14.5 (Play to +14)
Oklahoma State (-2.5; 65.5) at Central Florida
Oklahoma State has now won and covered five straight games, including four wins as outright underdogs, to control its destiny to reach the Big XII Championship Game.
The Cowboys come into this week off the high of defeating rival Oklahoma in what looks to be the final edition of "Bedlam" at least for the time being.
While Mike Gundy and his team deserve credit for this winning streak, it also must be recognized that they have been extremely fortunate (+8 turnover margin).
UCF is currently 4-5 and needs to win two of its last three for bowl eligibility. The Knights are better than its record because four of its five losses were without QB John Rhys Plumlee. They ended a five-game losing streak with a 28-26 victory at Cincinnati last week.
Oklahoma State is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in its last six post-Bedlam.
Hop on the Gus Bus here.
Bet: Central Florida +2.5 (Play to +2)
Utah at Washington (-9; 50)
Washington generated 572 yards of total offense (including 316 on the ground) and scored 52 points against a poor USC defense last weekend. The Huskies appear on a collision course to have a rematch with Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but the Utes may have something to say about that.
Utah has certainly had its struggles on offense with QB Cameron Rising missing the season, but the Utes are still as tough as ever and rank in the Top 10 nationally for total defense.
Kyle Whittingham and Utah are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road dog of 10 or fewer points. Whittingham is also 40-26-1 ATS in his career as an underdog.
Clearly, the Huskies are right in the mix for the College Football Playoff, which adds even more pressure to a situation that is normally difficult for them as Washington is 0-12 ATS in its last 12 games after playing USC, who they like the rest of the conference, looks at as the premier program in the conference.
Bet: Utah +9 (Play to +7.5)
