College football expert betting picks for Week 12
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(odds as of November 16, 10:35 p.m. PT)
Coastal Carolina (-3,5; 43) at Army
Coastal Carolina clinched bowl eligibility two weeks ago with a victory at Old Dominion, and then followed it up with a home underdog win over Texas State. Now the Chanticleers, behind third-string freshman QB Ethan Vasko (who is 2-0 as a starter), go on the road to take on Army, who has won two straight games.
The Chanticleers have a home game with likely still undefeated James Madison next week to clinch the East Division and reach the Sun Belt Championship Game. As an aside note, James Madison was ruled ineligible for the conference championship as a transition team from FCS to FBS.
This could be a look-ahead spot for Coastal Carolina and a tough spot at that to have to face a triple-option squad this late in the season. Coastal may also rest some key players here with a shot at the conference championship game on deck.
Army is also in a revenge spot, having lost 38-28 at Coastal last season and being 4-6, the Black Knights can win this one and then against Navy to reach bowl eligibility.
As an underdog of more than a field goal, Army head coach Jeff Monken owns a career 28-13-1 ATS record.
Bet: Army +3.5
Michigan (-19.5; 50) at Maryland
Michigan took care of business last week at Penn State, a day after the Big Ten suspended Jim Harbaugh for three games as part of the sign-stealing scandal and is still undefeated and No. 3 in the College Football Playoff standings.
Harbaugh said earlier this week, “The perseverance, you know, and just the stalwartness of these guys. I mean, it’s gotta be America’s Team." “America loves a team that beats the odds, beats the adversity, you know, overcomes what the naysayers and critics, so-called experts think. That’s my favorite kind of team.”
Now the Wolverines go back on the road to take on Maryland in the ultimate sandwich spot between last week’s game at Penn State and the "Big Game" with No. 2 Ohio State next weekend.
Maryland took care of bowl eligibility with a hard-fought 13-10 victory at Nebraska last week. The Terps played Michigan tough last year, only losing 34-27 in Ann Arbor. They could catch the Wolverines sleeping in an early noon ET kickoff, and Michigan’s playoff hopes hinge upon next week anyway, so any "style points" are not pertinent here.
Bet: Maryland +19.5 (Play to +18.5)
UNLV at Air Force (-3; 47)
Three weeks ago, Air Force was undefeated and ranked in the Top 25, albeit largely due to a weak schedule. Then, the Falcons lost at home to Army, 23-3 as 18.5-point favorites. The following week, Air Force was a 19.5-point favorite at Hawaii and lost outright, 27-13.
Now, the Falcons find themselves in a dogfight atop the Mountain West against surging UNLV.
Falcons QB Zac Larrier left last week in the second quarter with a leg injury and is questionable. Air Force struggled to move the ball without Larrier, running back Emmanuel Michel, and wide receiver Dane Kinamon.
Last week, this number was Air Force -9.5 and is now just -3. Air Force looks to have no momentum, and UNLV has all of the momentum, but this looks like a good time to buy on the dip.
Bet: Air Force -3
Washington at Oregon State (-1; 62.5)
Washington remains unbeaten and is No. 5 in the CFP standings and appears to be on track to have a rematch with No. 6 Oregon in the swan song championship game for the Pac-12.
However, the Huskies have had six straight competitive games, including a seven-point win at Arizona, the three-point win over Oregon, the 15-7 win vs. Arizona State where they failed to score an offensive touchdown, a nine-point victory at Stanford (a two-point game with 2:00 to play), a ten-point win at USC (tied in the fourth quarter), and a hard-fought win by seven over Utah last week.
Washington has been living dangerously, and it seems to be only a matter of time before the Huskies get got.
The Beavers rank ninth nationally in yards per carry at 5.39 and have the ground game to keep Michael Penix and Washington’s No. 1 passing offense on the sidelines for long periods of time.
Bet: Oregon State -1 (Play to -2.5 or ML)
Florida at Missouri (-12; 57)
Missouri, as three-point home underdogs, thrashed Tennessee 36-7. Now they are laying close to two touchdowns to Florida, who is still seeking that sixth win for bowl eligibility.
The Tigers are off consecutive max effort games vs. now-No. 1 Georgia and last week vs. No. 13 Tennessee. There is a good chance that Mizzou could be a little out of gas on Senior Day, which is always an emotionally draining spot.
Despite a non-cover last week as an underdog at LSU, Billy Napier is still 19-8 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career.
Bet: Florida +12 (Play to +11)
