College Football Regular Season Final Game Betting Systems:

It’s hard even to say the words as it makes me somewhat depressed, but the regular season for college football 2024 ends this weekend. To say it went by fast is a gargantuan understatement. It seems like just yesterday that we were previewing the Week 0 games and beaming with anticipation about this first season with an expanded playoff field. Of course, a lot has happened since then, and there is still a ton left to decide this coming weekend in terms of conference championship berths, those playoff standings, and who will or won’t be going to bowl games. Like always at this time of year, some teams have everything to play for, and some are just playing out the string. Obviously, this greatly impacts the motivation levels of every team and, hence, the betting lines associated with the contests. As such, this week presents a lot of opportunity for bettors. I’m here to share some of the top betting systems involving FBS teams playing in their regular season finale games.

 

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CFB Regular Season Finale System #1

Since 2015, home favorites of more than 20 points are 55-6 SU but just 23-38 ATS (37.7%) in season finale games.

System matches: (FADE ALL ATS) – BUFFALO (-21 vs. Kent State), BOISE STATE (-20.5 vs. Oregon State), OLE MISS (-26.5 vs. Mississippi State), OHIO STATE (-20.5 vs. Michigan), INDIANA (-29.5 vs. Purdue), PENN STATE (-24.5 vs. Maryland)

Steve’s thoughts: Laying big numbers in regular season finales can be difficult, regardless of the perceived difference in strength levels between the teams, as many of the regular season finale games are rivalry contests with enhanced motivation for the underdogs. The favored teams are typically just concentrating on getting wins, as you can see by the outright record. The underdogs could also be motivated by the prospects of spoiling things for their heavily favored opponents. Of note, last year, there were just two plays on this system, and those games were 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS. This year, the qualifying game list triples.

CFB Regular Season Finale System #2

Since 2015, home underdogs of 7 points or more are just 21-126 SU and 58-87-2 ATS (40%) in season finale games.

System matches: (FADE ALL ATS) – AKRON (+8 vs. Toledo), FLORIDA ST (+15 vs. Florida), TEMPLE (+11 vs. North Texas), VANDERBILT (+10.5 vs. Tennessee), MASSACHUSETTS (+10 vs. Connecticut), SYRACUSE (+11 vs. Miami FL), NORTHWESTERN (+7.5 vs. Illinois), ARIZONA (+8.5 vs. Arizona State), LA MONROE (+9 vs. LA-Lafayette), USC (+7.5 vs. Notre Dame)

Steve’s thoughts: In most cases, home teams that are playing as heavy underdogs in the regular season finale are overmatched by the opponent and just trying to put a positive ending on a miserable season. That isn’t a huge motivating factor. There is a reason they are a big underdog, and typically, they don’t wind up showing much fight in these final games. The number of games for 2024 has been cut in half in terms of a year ago when there were 20 plays. Those were 0-20 SU and 6-13-1 ATS.

CFB Regular Season Finale System #3

In season finale games since 2015, teams scoring more than 43 PPG are 36-8 SU and 27-16-1 ATS (62.8%) versus teams scoring less.

System matches: MIAMI (FL) (-11 vs. Syracuse),

Steve’s thoughts: In most cases, these explosive teams are looking to make one more huge impression on fans and pollsters as they build momentum for a conference title, playoff, or bowl game appearance. Last year, there were two plays on this system, and they went 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS, with LSU winning on the opening number versus Texas A&M but losing on the -12.5 closing line, winning 42-30. Only one team in 2024 is scoring more than 40 PPG, Miami (FL).

CFB Regular Season Finale System #4

In season finale games since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more between the teams, when the better team has been the road team in the matchup, the record has been 81-11 SU and 55-36-1 ATS (60.4%).

System matches: TOLEDO (-8.5 vs. Akron), FLORIDA (-15 vs. Florida State), CONNECTICUT (-10 vs. Massachusetts), DUKE (-4 vs. Wake Forest), ILLINOIS (-7.5 vs. Northwestern), ARIZONA STATE (-8.5 vs. Arizona), LA-LAFAYETTE (-9.5 vs. LA Monroe), NOTRE DAME (-7.5 vs. USC)

Steve’s thoughts: This is somewhat similar to #2 above. I think too much is made of late-season road games for a lot of quality teams, as I believe the difficulty of the task should only be measured by the quality of the opponent. When there is a four-game or better difference in wins between two teams at this point, there is an obvious strength difference, as well as a probable motivational edge for the better team. You also get the added benefit of line value applied by oddsmakers for home-field advantage when it may or may not even apply in reality. Last year, there were 19 plays on this angle, and they went 18-1 SU and 10-8-1 ATS. We are down to eight qualifiers for 2024.

CFB Regular Season Finale System #5

One of the most intriguing regular season finale angles involves those teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility, as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in the season finales, they have gone 26-49 SU but 43-30-2 ATS (61.9%).

System matches: WISCONSIN (-2 vs. Minnesota), OREGON STATE (+20.5 at Boise State), NC STATE (+3.5 at North Carolina), APPALACHIAN STATE (+2.5 at Georgia Southern), MICHIGAN STATE (-1.5 vs. Rutgers), KANSAS (+1 at Baylor), AUBURN (+11.5 at Alabama), LA MONROE (+9.5 vs. LA-Lafayette),

Steve’s thoughts: Obviously, there is a lot of motivation that comes along with trying to clinch bowl eligibility, both in terms of money and in being able to extend the season out another month. Unfortunately, when teams put themselves in the difficult spot of having to accomplish that goal by beating a better team in the finale, the most often result is “close but no cigar.” This is the first of the systems that didn’t produce in 2023, as the 11 qualifiers were 2-9 SU and 4-6-1 ATS.

CFB Regular Season Finale System #6

College football season finale underdogs of 4 points or more that have a better record than their opponent have gone just 5-17 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in their last 22 tries.

System matches: FADE ALL ATS) – PITTSBURGH (+5 at Boston College), ARKANSAS STATE (+4 vs. Old Dominion), FRESNO STATE (+9.5 at UCLA)

Steve’s thoughts: Put these games in the column of “someone knows something.” Despite having a better record than the opponent, these teams are still sizable underdogs. Don’t be fooled by a line that seems too good to be true.

CFB Regular Season Finale System #7

Some of the best season-finale types of teams to fade have been the winning teams that don’t score a lot, as teams with winning records and scoring 24 PPG or fewer have gone just 17-18 SU and 10-26 ATS (27.8%) in their season finale games.

System matches: (FADE ALL ATS) – MIAMI (OH) (+2.5 at Bowling Green), SAM HOUSTON STATE (+3 vs. Liberty), COLORADO STATE (-6 vs. Utah State), MICHIGAN (+20.5 vs Ohio State), WASHINGTON (+19 at Oregon)

Steve’s thoughts: This system makes a lot of sense as these may have winning records, but they aren’t complete teams, as they don’t score a lot. Oftentimes, they are laying points in the season finales because they are a winning team. I typically don’t like to trust teams laying points that aren’t capable offensively. For this year, however, only one of the five qualifiers is favored.

CFB Regular Season Finale System #8

College football season finale games expected to be defensive slugfests have been just that. As of the last 21 season finale games with totals less than 40, Under the total has gone 16-4-1 (80%).

System matches: NEBRASKA-IOWA UNDER 39.5. Several others have totals in the low 40s as of Monday afternoon.

Steve’s thoughts: If you recall, there was a Nebraska-Iowa game that closed with a total of 24.5 this weekend and still went Under!!! It was a 13-10 Hawkeyes’ win. All three games on this system that qualified won last year. Expecting dead offenses to wake up in late-season games that could even be impacted by negative weather circumstances has proven to be foolish. Oddsmakers are setting the pins for bettors. They just have to knock ’em down by playing the obvious.

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