College Football Regular Season Final Game Betting Systems:
For as much as it seems like week 0 was just yesterday, another college football regular season has almost come and gone, and most teams will be playing in their regular season finale games this Thanksgiving weekend. To say it went by fast is a depressing understatement. Of course, a lot has happened since then and there is still a ton left to decide this coming weekend in terms of conference championship berths, the playoff standings, and who will or won’t be going to bowl games. Like always at this time of year, some teams have everything to play for, some are just playing out the string. Obviously, this greatly impacts the motivation levels of every team and hence the betting lines associated with the contests. As such, this week presents a lot of opportunities for bettors. I’m here to share some of the top betting systems involving FBS teams playing in their regular-season finale games.
CFB Regular Season Finale System #1
Since 2015, HOME FAVORITES of more than 20 points are 59-6 SU but just 26-39 ATS (40%) in season finale games.
System matches: (FADE ALL ATS) – INDIANA (-28.5 at Purdue), NORTH TEXAS (-20.5 vs. Temple), TEXAS TECH (-23.5 at West Virginia), OLD DOMINION (-26.5 vs. Georgia State), JAMES MADISON (-22.5 at Coastal Carolina), SOUTH FLORIDA (-27.5 vs. Rice), TULANE (-30.5 vs Charlotte), NOTRE DAME (-32.5 at Stanford), USC (-20.5 vs. UCLA)
Steve’s thoughts: Laying big numbers in regular-season finales can be difficult, regardless of the perceived difference in strength levels between the teams, as many of the regular-season finale games are rivalry contests with enhanced motivation for the underdogs. The favored teams are typically just concentrating on getting wins, as you can see by the outright record. The underdogs could also be motivated by the prospects of spoiling things for their heavily favored opponents. Of note, over the last two years, this angle is only 3-3 ATS. This year’s list of qualifying teams is a little bigger than usual and offers a few of the top teams vying for the Group of 5’s spot in the CFP.
CFB Regular Season Finale System #2
Since 2015, HOME UNDERDOGS of 7-points or more are just 23-134 SU & 62-93-2 ATS (40%) in season finale games.
System matches: (FADE ALL ATS) – EASTERN MICHIGAN (+7 vs. Western Michigan), MASSACHUSETTS (+14.5 vs. Bowling Green), MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7 vs. Ole Miss), KANSAS (+13.5 vs. Utah), PURDUE (+28.5 vs. Indiana), WEST VIRGINIA (+23.5 vs. Texas Tech), COASTAL CAROLINA (+22.5 vs. James Madison), MICHIGAN (+10 vs. Ohio State), PITTSBURGH (+7 vs. Miami (FL)), RUTGERS (+11.5 vs. Penn State), CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+10.5 vs. Toledo), SAM HOUSTON (+10 vs. FIU), OKLAHOMA STATE (+14 vs. Iowa State), CALIFORNIA (+12.5 vs. SMU), STANFORD (+32.5 vs. Notre Dame), NEVADA (+7.5 vs. UNLV)
Steve’s thoughts: In most cases, home teams that are playing as heavy underdogs in the regular season finale are overmatched by the opponent and just trying to put a positive ending on a miserable season. That isn’t a huge motivating factor. There is a reason they are a big underdog, and typically, they don’t wind up showing much fight in these finale games. In 2023, there were 20 plays and those teams went 0-20 SU and 6-13-1 ATS. Last year, the list was cut in half, and those teams were 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS. For 2025, there were 16 plays as of Monday, but a handful of other games hovering around 6.5 points that could eventually join the group.
CFB Regular Season Finale System #3
In season finale games since 2015, teams scoring more than 43 PPG are 36-9 SU and 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%) versus teams scoring less.
System matches: NORTH TEXAS (-20.5 vs. Temple),
Steve’s thoughts: In most cases, these explosive teams are looking to make one more huge impression on fans and pollsters as they build momentum for a conference title, playoff, or bowl game appearance. Last year, there was only one play and it wound up being a big upset, with Miami losing outright at Syracuse, 42-38. In general, there are fewer teams reaching this elite scoring benchmark nowadays than in the past. In fact, North Texas is the only team exceeding 41.5 PPG this season.
CFB Regular Season Finale System #4
In season finale games since 2015, when there has been a difference of 4 wins or more between the teams, when the better team has been the road team in the matchup, the record has been 88-12 SU & 61-38-1 ATS (61.6%).
System matches: OLE MISS (-7 at Mississippi State), UTAH (-13.5 at Kansas), INDIANA (-28.5 at Purdue), TEXAS TECH (-23.5 at West Virginia), JAMES MADISON (-22.5 at Coastal Carolina), ALABAMA (-5.5 at Auburn), FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-10 at Sam Houston), MISSOURI (-2.5 at Arkansas), IOWA STATE (-14 at Oklahoma State), FRESNO STATE (-2.5 at San Jose State), NOTRE DAME (-32.5 at Stanford), KENNESAW STATE (-2.5 at Liberty), UNLV (-7.5 at Nevada)
Steve’s thoughts: This is somewhat similar to #2 above. I think too much is made of late-season road games for a lot of quality teams, as I believe the difficulty of the task should only be measured by the quality of the opponent. When there is a four-game or better difference in wins between two teams at this point, there is an obvious strength difference, as well as a probable motivational edge for the better team. You also get the added benefit of line value applied by oddsmakers for home-field advantage when it may or may not even apply in reality. Last year, there were eight plays on this angle, and they went 7-1 SU and 6-21 ATS. There is a healthy list of 13 games for 2025.
CFB Regular Season Finale System #5
An intriguing regular-season finale angle involves those teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility, as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in the season finales, they have gone 27-56 SU but 45-36-2 ATS (55.6%).
System matches: BUFFALO (+6.5 vs. Ohio U), MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7 vs. Ole Miss), KANSAS (+13.5 vs. Utah), KENTUCKY (+3.5 at Louisville), RICE (+27.5 at South Florida), AUBURN (+5.5 vs. Alabama), BAYLOR (-2.5 vs. Houston), UCF (+17.5 at BYU), TEMPLE (+20.5 at North Texas)
Steve’s thoughts: Obviously, there is a lot of motivation that comes along with trying to clinch bowl eligibility, both in terms of money, and in being able to extend the season out another month. Unfortunately, when teams put themselves in the difficult spot of having to accomplish that goal by beating a better team in the finale, the most common result is “close but no cigar.” This is the first of these systems that hasn’t produced well in the last two seasons, as the 19 qualifiers in those two seasons were 3-16 SU and 6-12-1 ATS. Perhaps tread lightly this season until we see this turn back?
CFB Regular Season Finale System #6
College football season finale underdogs of 4 points or more that have a better record than their opponent have gone just 5-20 SU and 8-17 ATS (32%) in their last 25 tries.
System matches: FADE ALL ATS) – KENT STATE (+4.5 at Northern Illinois), MARYLAND (+4 at Michigan State)
Steve’s thoughts: Put these games in the column of “someone knows something”. Despite having a better record than the opponent, these teams are still sizable underdogs. Don’t be fooled by a line that seems too good to be true. Last year’s teams were 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS, holding true to form. Note that both Navy and Army apply on the record/line conditions, but this week’s games are not their season finales.
CFB Regular Season Finale System #7
Some of the best season-finale types of teams to fade have been the winning teams that don’t score a lot, as teams with winning records and scoring 24 PPG or fewer have gone just 20-20 SU & 12-29 ATS (29.3%) in their season finale games.
System matches: (FADE ALL ATS) – COASTAL CAROLINA (+22.5 vs. James Madison), LSU (+10 at Oklahoma), NORTHWESTERN (+7 at Illinois), MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs. Wisconsin), CALIFORNIA (+12.5 vs. SMU)
Steve’s thoughts: This system makes a lot of sense as these may have winning records, but they aren’t complete teams, as they don’t score a lot. Oftentimes, they are laying points in the season finales because they are a winning team. I typically don’t like to trust teams laying points that aren’t capable offensively. Last year’s teams went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in five games. Another five games are on tap for 2025.
CFB Regular Season Finale System #8
College football season finale games expected to be defensive slugfests have been just that, as of the last 21 season finale games with totals less than 40, Under the total has gone 16-5-1 (76.2%).
System matches: IOWA-NEBRASKA UNDER 39.5, LSU-OKLAHOMA UNDER 37.5, WISCONSIN-MINNESOTA UNDER 37.5. Several others have totals in the low 40s as of Monday afternoon.
Steve’s thoughts: Depending upon when you got in on the game, you may have won or lost on your only qualifying play for this angle last year, since the Bowling Green-Miami (OH) contest opened at 43 but moved down to 38.5 by kickoff. The game finished with a 28-12 final. At the same time, the game I actually listed in this same space a year ago, Iowa-Nebraska, saw its total climb out of range and go from 39 to 41.5. It easily went Under, 13-10. The bottom line…weather can impact these final totals greatly in late November. Stay on top of them and be ready to pounce at kickoff, since bookmakers are setting the pins for bettors, they just have to knock ’em down by playing the obvious.
