College Football Stability Systems Picks for Week 2

College Football Stability Systems Picks for Week 2:

We have experienced modest results so far with the new Stability Systems, with each of them coming in right around the 50/50 mark against the spread. Backing teams with 17 or more starters returning has fared the best: 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS last week. That’s not to say there weren’t some highlights last week, as our systems accurately pegged the double-digit outright upset by Tulsa over Oklahoma State and the near-miss by Western Michigan in Ann Arbor. Of course, surprisingly “stable” efforts by teams like Florida, Penn State and LSU put a dent in the numbers. 

Now, we move on to Week 2, with just this slate of games and next week’s remaining on our system schedule. On this week’s board, we will be looking for better efforts from teams like Oregon and Fresno State and hope for much less stable outings from the likes of Penn State, Memphis and Iowa State. 

Hopefully, by now, you are familiar with my long-running methodology on measuring college football program stability at the start of each season. In short, being a numbers guy and always looking for quantitative advantages in betting, I like to quantify the level of stability for each program in the offseason. I figure that the higher the level of stability, the better the chances for success for any team, particularly early in the season. Naturally, putting a numerical grade to it makes it easier to spot this stability. Again, the point spread considered, the feeling is that oddsmakers don’t adjust enough for the “instability.”

My stability variables are head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, starting quarterback and returning overall starters. I have attached the chart for this season, with one noteworthy change, that being removal of a 4 from Charlotte for the starting quarterback injury to Conner Harrell.

VIEW COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY SCORES CHART HERE

This past offseason I did an in-depth study of all of the stability factors and came up with several new betting angles worthy of bettors’ attention. Here they are with the qualifying plays for week 1, and as a reminder, these systems only cover FBS vs. FBS games: 

Note: Lines shown were as of Tuesday morning, 9/8. In general, all systems are NOT line dependent and go under the assumption that oddsmakers have not accounted enough for the stability imbalance. 

NEW head coaches are 102-164 SU and 121-143 ATS (45.8%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021 (10-10 SU and ATS last week)

2026 Week 2 Plays: AGAINST Oklahoma State +22.5, Michigan +5.5, Virginia Tech -18.5, Penn State -23.5, South Florida +3.5, California +3.5, Connecticut +12.5, Michigan State -17.5, Kentucky +10.5, North Texas +3.5, Memphis +8.5, Ohio U -3, Tulane -9.5, UCLA -11.5, Iowa State +14, LSU -35.5, Oregon State +26.5, Ole Miss -47.5, Sacramento State +18.5

* NEW defensive coordinators are 175-211 SU and 177-202-7 ATS (46.7%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021 (8-13 SU but 12-7-2 ATS last week)

2026 Week 2 Plays: AGAINST Oklahoma State +22.5, Michigan +5.5, East Carolina -7.5, Purdue +3, Virginia Tech -18.5, Penn State -23.5, Texas A&M -14.5, South Florida +3.5, BYU, -7.5, Pittsburgh -7, Connecticut +12.5, Texas State -1.5, Illinois -6, Eastern Michigan +17.5, Mississippi State -1.5, Kentucky +10.5, North Texas +3.5, Memphis +8.5, Buffalo +10.5, Ohio U -3, Marshall -13.5, Georgia State +9.5, Georgia Southern +20.5, Navy -4.5, Iowa State +14, Southern Miss +33.5, Oregon State +26.5, Air Force +2.5, Sacramento State +18.5, USC -30.5

* Teams with 17+ total returning starters are 113-89 SU and 112-88-2 ATS (56%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021 (5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS last week)

2026 Week 2 Plays: ON Virginia Tech -18.5, USC -30.5, Texas A&M -14.5, UCLA -11.5, Notre Dame -44.5

From this info, bettors can certainly discern that new head coaches, new defensive coordinators and a lot of returning starters are the most impactful offseason happenings. 

Over the last decade-plus, the “old stability system” I depended on was about a 56% consistent running strategy up until last fall. However, I was also able to recognize that conference games were pulling the winning percentages down. In fact, the teams with the old stability edge of seven points or more in conference game action were only winning around 49.5% ATS. 

The other two things I found that were negatively impacting my Stability System results were 1) games with point spreads of 30+ and 2) leaving out teams with an edge of 6 on the stability scores. 

With the stats above in mind, my official new College Football Stability System(s) will read as follows: 

Play ON any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game DOES NOT have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (344-231 SU and 310-253-12 ATS, 55.1% since 2013), including 8-7 SU and 7-8 ATS last week.

2026 Week 2 Plays: ON Oregon -22.5, Oklahoma -5.5, Temple +23.5, Army -3.5, Syracuse -3.5, Maryland -12.5, Eastern Michigan +17.5, Minnesota +1.5, UNLV -3.5, Boise State -8.5, Florida International -10.5, Jacksonville State +3, South Alabama +9.5, Nebraska -28.5, San Diego State +11.5, Iowa -14, Texas Tech -26.5, Fresno State -18.5

AND

Play AGAINST any college football teams with STABILITY SCORES of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game DOES NOT have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (FADE record 269-146 SU and 226-184-4 ATS, 55.1% since 2013), including 9-8 SU and 8-9 ATS last week.

2026 Week 2 Plays: AGAINST Oklahoma State +22.5, East Carolina -7.5, Virginia Tech -18.5, Penn State -23.5, South Florida +3.5, California +3.5, Connecticut +12.5, Michigan State -17.5, North Texas +3.5, Memphis +8.5, Buffalo +10.5, Ohio U -3, Tulane -9.5, Bowling Green +28.5, Georgia Tech +12.5, Iowa State +14, LSU -35.5, Oregon State +26.5, Sacramento State +18.5

If you are unfamiliar with the Stability methodology, you can see the complete system explanation and background by downloading the VSiN College Football Betting Guide.

For more Week 2 college football picks and predictions, visit the VSiN Week 2 College Football Hub.

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