MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, September 12.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
2:20 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Clay Holmes is pitching to a lot of contact with 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He has a 2.83 ERA thanks to giving up only 0.5 home runs per nine innings. Although the wind should be blowing out to begin the day, it will become more directional as the day goes on. While Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes has a 3.83 ERA, his fielding independent is 3.06 with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that, since the All-Star Break, is last in the National League in scoring with 3.8 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates vs. Cubs Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
3:07 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Both starters in this game have struggled with command. Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish has a 3.91 ERA with a career-low 8.3 strikeouts and four walks per nine innings. He benefits from facing a Blue Jays lineup that entered the series 29th in scoring with four runs per game. The Blue Jays will either start Spencer Arrighetti or throw him in a bulk role. Overall, he owns a 5.12 ERA with 1.5 home runs and five walks per nine innings. In his four appearances with the Blue Jays, his ERA has ballooned to 8.04.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -129
4:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starting pitcher Andrew Alvarez has a 3.60 ERA this season. He has a 3.32 fielding independent and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings, with only 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. Alvarez faces an Angels lineup that, since the All Star Break, is last in scoring with less than 3.3 runs per game. While Angels starting pitcher Walbert Urẽna has a low 2.77 ERA, he has a much higher 3.77 fielding independent, with 4.5 walks per nine innings. The Nationals are second in the league in scoring with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -133
7:15 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has a 4.05 ERA with 1.2 home runs and three walks per nine innings this season. In his seven starts since Atlanta acquired him from the San Francisco Giants, he has a 1.24 ERA with 0.7 home runs and 1.5 walks per nine innings. Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo has been sensational with a 2.87 ERA and 2.77 fielding independent with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Luzardo is backed up by a bullpen that is 19th in ERA at 4.24. The Braves are number one in the National League with a 3.35 bullpen ERA and are ninth in overall scoring with nearly 4.6 runs per game.
Picks: Braves Moneyline +114 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -101 and Total 8.3
Chicago White Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals
White Sox starting pitcher Luis Castillo has struggled this season with a 5.57 ERA. He’s allowed 1.7 home runs and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings, with that ERA going to 7.52 and 2.7 hore runs per nine innings allowed since being traded from the Seattle Mariners to the Chicago White Sox. Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy has been on a tight pitch limit recently, going four innings or fewer in each of his past three starts, but owns a 3.41 ERA with one home run and 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -114
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals Moneyline -124
