There are many reasons why college teams perform at varying levels in certain situations. Some teams may perform best when they feel they are being overlooked; others may be overwhelmed by that underdog role. There are always teams that play better at home than on the road, and even vice versa. Some teams have developed a specific style of play that favors betting on one side of the total or the other. Whatever the case, when these performance levels tend to gain consistency over the course of multiple seasons, that’s when they must be considered as part of the handicapping routine. With that in mind, as we approach the opening of the 2025 season, I thought I’d review the VSiN database and share 40 of the top team situational trends that will be in play at various points throughout the season. Along with the trends, I’ve offered up my own explanation as to why the trend might be thriving, as well as the potential game(s) in which they could be in play. 

If you missed any of my college football preseason prep work, be sure to download the VSiN College Football Betting Guide, or visit VSiN.com and browse to my author page. Enjoy the trends; hopefully, they help you spot some winning plays this season. They are sorted by team name.

 

APPALACHIAN ST is 6-22 ATS (21.4%) in the last 28 games as a favorite

Steve’s thoughts: This is one of the main reasons why the Mountaineers’ program has slipped in recent years, falling to sub-.500 a year ago. New Head Coach Dowell Loggains has a sizable job to do to get ASU back in a position of competing for Sun Belt titles yearly.

Potential ’25 spots: My numbers show ASU favored in seven games this season, including the first three

–

CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 3-13 ATS (18.8%) as a favorite over the last three seasons

Steve’s thoughts: Not coincidentally, Central Michigan hasn’t played in a bowl game since ’21, having failed to do so in all of the last three seasons. Winning games when supposed to is a good way to get there, and one of the foremost to-do items on new Head Coach Matt Drinkall’s wish list.

Potential ’25 spots: I have CMU favored five times this season, potentially, but none until Week 4 vs. Wagner

–

CHARLOTTE is 4-15 ATS (21.1%) in the last 19 home games

Steve’s thoughts: Head Coach Biff Poggi was expected to bring the excitement to Charlotte, but that didn’t happen. The mess has been left to clean up for new Head Coach Tim Albin, who is off a successful run at Ohio U. Albin has a former UNC recruit at QB this year as he looks to restore some semblance of home-field advantage.

Potential ’25 spots: Charlotte has a difficult home opener versus North Carolina on 9/6, as well as five other home tilts

–

CINCINNATI is 4-14 ATS (22.2%) as an underdog over L4 seasons

Steve’s thoughts: Back in the American Athletic Conference, being an underdog was rare for Cincinnati. However, things are a lot different in the Big 12, and the Bearcats’ inability to compete well in the underdog role has cost them in the standings. With 15 starters back in 2025, perhaps that can change this fall.

Potential ’25 spots: I have Cincinnati set up as an underdog in seven of its 12 games this season, including the opener vs. Nebraska at Arrowhead Stadium

–

CLEMSON is 12-4 ATS (75%) when coming off a straight up loss since 2019

Steve’s thoughts: Clemson hasn’t lost a whole lot under HC Dabo Swinney, but unfortunately, the frequency has picked up a bit in recent years. Regardless, he has always done well in getting his guys to respond directly afterward. Good coaches can use defeats as effective motivating factors.

Potential ’25 spots: My projections have the Tigers favored in all 12 games this season, but the opener vs. LSU is very tough. A date with Troy follows.

–

COLORADO is 8-1 ATS (88.9%) when coming off an outright loss over the last two seasons

Steve’s thoughts: Media folks have been quite tough on HC Deion Sanders with the way he has handled his team and the spotlight since his arrival in Boulder two seasons ago. However, like Swinney at Clemson, he has been quite good at getting his team to bounce back from losses, a sign of an effective leader.

Potential ’25 spots: A retooling Colorado team in 2025 is sure to suffer at least a few losses, and look no sooner than a Week 2 potential chance versus Delaware to take advantage of this trend following a home underdog spot to Georgia Tech in the opener.

–

FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 3-15 ATS (16.7%) in the last 18 games following an outright victory

Steve’s thoughts: Since Lane Kiffin left FAU for Ole Miss, the Owls have not only dropped off significantly overall, but they’ve proven to be very inconsistent as well. One of the major problems over those last five seasons has been the inability to string multiple wins together. As such, they haven’t seen a bowl game since 2020.

Potential ’25 spots: I would expect this trend to arise for sure for FAU when it travels to rival FIU in Week 3

–

GEORGIA ST is 21-9 ATS (70%) in road/neutral games since 2020

Steve’s thoughts: Georgia State is one of the top five performing point spread teams in the country over the last five years. The Panthers’ best success has come away from home, and this includes three convincing bowl victories in that span.

Potential ’25 spots: GSU plays six road games in 2025, including its first two at SEC schools. The opener is at Ole Miss on 8/30

–

GEORGIA TECH is on a 5-17 ATS (22.7%) skid as a favorite

Steve’s thoughts: Like a restrictor plate, I always feel there is a limit to how good a team can get if it doesn’t take advantage of its chances to soundly beat teams it is supposed to. As the old saying goes, good teams win, great teams cover. Right now, the Georgia Tech football program is good, not great.

Potential ’25 spots: According to my numbers, Georgia Tech will be favored 10 times in 2025, starting with an 8/29 matchup at Colorado

–

KANSAS ST is 11-4 ATS (73.3%) following up an outright loss over the last four seasons

Steve’s thoughts: This is one of the primary reasons that Kansas State finds itself in the hunt for Big 12 titles year after year. The Wildcats are able to consistently avoid losing streaks.

Potential ’25 spots: I only show KSU playing as an underdog twice this season, but that’s not to say they won’t trip up before that first dog spot at Baylor on 10/4. In fact, the opener in Ireland vs. Iowa State will be a challenge.

–

KENTUCKY is on a 20-6 ATS (76.9%) surge in non-conference games since 2018

Steve’s thoughts: For teams in the SEC to be consistently successful and play in bowl games regularly, it behooves them to take care of business in non-conference action. Kentucky has done that under HC Mark Stoops.

Potential ’25 spots: Kentucky plays four non-conference games in 2025, including the opener versus Toledo.

–

MICHIGAN is 19-7 ATS (73.1%) in road/neutral games over the last four seasons

Steve’s thoughts: For all the superlatives that go along with the Big House in Ann Arbor and the advantage that the Wolverines get from playing in front of such huge crowds, ironically, they have actually been a better performing team away from home recently. This is one of the reasons they are just a season removed from a national title.

Potential ’25 spots: Michigan plays SIX road/neutral games in 2025, including a difficult spot at Oklahoma in Week 2

–

MISSOURI is 10-2 ATS (83.3%) in road/neutral games over the last two seasons

Steve’s thoughts: Missouri was pretty much floundering in its existence in the SEC until it started winning road games over the last two seasons. The results have been obvious, 21-5 in 2023 and 2024, including back-to-back bowl game wins.

Potential ’25 spots: Missouri only plays four road games in 2025, and none until a trip to Auburn on 10/18

–

NAVY is 15-5 ATS (75%) following up an outright win over the last four seasons

Steve’s thoughts: Discipline is one of the primary factors in teams being able to successfully manage success in college football. Obviously, discipline is a foremost trait demonstrated by service academies. Navy won a lot of games last year, much due to this trend.

Potential ’25 spots: I have Navy scheduled to be a double-digit favorite in all of its first seven games, so I expect this trend to be a regular occurrence early. Don’t be surprised if the Midshipmen are undefeated when they head to North Texas on 11/1.

–

NC STATE is 3-12 ATS (20%) in non-conference games over the last three seasons

Steve’s thoughts: This is a tough trend to digest, since NC State is actually 10-5 outright in these 15 non-conference games. It seems the Wolfpack simply lacks the motivation to hammer these non-conference foes and take care of business. The most recent outright and ATS loss was in last year’s bowl game versus a far more motivated East Carolina team.

Potential ’25 spots: The first non-conference tilt is in Week 1, a rematch game vs. ECU. Will revenge be a motivator that helps NC State prevail this time?

–

NEW MEXICO is 18-6 ATS (75%) Over the total in the last two seasons

Steve’s thoughts: New Mexico has improved tremendously offensively over the last two seasons, going from 13.1 PPG in 2022 to 27.3 PPG in 2023, then 33.5 PPG last year. Unfortunately, the defense has allowed 36.5 PPG during the two seasons. Oddsmakers haven’t fully responded and Overs on totals has been the result.

Potential ’25 spots: The Lobos don’t figure to score a whole lot of points in the opener at Michigan, but the Wolverines could exploit the UNM defense for all the points needed to continue this Over trend.

–

NORTH CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (0%) at home last season

Steve’s thoughts: The situation at North Carolina is going to be extremely interesting to follow this season as longtime NFL coach Bill Belichick begins his tenure. His first order of business will be in re-establishing home-field advantage in Chapel Hill, and he took a big step in doing that by bringing back natural grass in the offseason.

Potential ’25 spots: With its home ATS losing streak at eight games, UNC hosts TCU on Labor Day

–

NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 5-20 ATS (20%) at home and 7-19 (26,9%) as a favorite over the last five seasons

Steve’s thoughts: These trends obviously coincide with one another significantly and have limited NIU’s ceiling all the while. HC Thomas Hammock desperately needs to restore this program’s advantage in Rockford this season, but only five starters return. Could be a tall task.

Potential ’25 spots: NIU hosts six games in 2025, starting 8/30 versus Holy Cross, and should be favored in five of them

–

NOTRE DAME is 30-9 ATS (76.9%) in road/neutral games over the last six seasons

Steve’s thoughts: This is simply an amazing trend, and with Notre Dame’s incredible national following, it astounds me that oddsmakers haven’t adjusted, or perhaps greatly over-adjusted to this point, to account for the incredible success. You don’t get to national title games by not being able to win away from home, and HC Marcus Freeman has kept this team doing so.

Potential ’25 spots: The Irish face what looks to be a challenging road schedule in 2025 with five games, starting in the opener at Miami.

–

OHIO U is 23-10 ATS (69.7%) in conference games over the last four seasons

Steve’s thoughts: Ohio U has played in two of the last four MAC title games, as the Bobcats have, for the most part, played their best football versus conference foes in recent years. We’ll see if losing HC Tim Albin has any impact on this trend, as it’s up to new HC Brian Smith to carry on the success.

Potential ’25 spots: The Bobcats’ MAC slate starts September 27th when they play host to Bowling Green

–

OLD DOMINION is 1-9 ATS (10%) as a favorite over the last three seasons

Steve’s thoughts: ODU has finished sub-.500 in all three years of this trend of being pathetic in the favorite role. That is no accident, and I would hope that HC Ricky Rahne makes winning games they are supposed to a focus of the Monarchs in 2025.

Potential ’25 spots: My numbers show ODU being a favorite in seven of its 12 games this season, the soonest spot coming in Week 2 vs. NC Central

–

OLE MISS is 16-5 ATS (90%) in non-conference games in five seasons under HC Lane Kiffin

Steve’s thoughts: Kiffin has made it a point for Ole Miss to impress the pollsters when his team plays non-conference tilts. These opponents are typically well-overmatched, and he has had no issue with putting his foot on their throats in unbalanced spots.

Potential ’25 spots: Ole Miss plays four home should-be easy non-conference games in 2025, starting with the opener versus Georgia State. My numbers show the Rebels playing these games as 35-point chalk on average.

–

OREGON ST is 19-7 ATS (73.1%) at home over the last four seasons

Steve’s thoughts: The Pac-12 folded around Oregon State last year, and the Beavers responded by going just 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS at home. That performance was well below standards for this program, but even still, they maintain a 73.1% cover rate as hosts over the last four seasons. Is the trend turning? Is it time to abandon ship? We’ll see.

Potential ’25 spots: Seven home games in 2025, starting with back-to-back games against Cal and Fresno State to open the season.

–

PENN ST is 30-13 ATS (69.7%) as a favorite over the last four seasons

Steve’s thoughts: After reaching the CFP semifinals last season, Penn State and Head Coach James Franklin come back perhaps better and more experienced in 2025 and looking to finish the job. This trend could prove to be very important in that quest, as the Nittany Lions are expected to be favored in 11 of 12 games at this point.

Potential ’25 spots: The only spot where PSU is not expected to be favored this season is at Ohio State on 11/1. The opener finds the Nittany Lions as favorites in excess of 40 points versus Nevada.

–

PURDUE is 4-15 ATS (21.1%) at home over the last three seasons

Steve’s thoughts: Purdue football has fallen on tough times, and it seems nearly every opponent no longer fears coming to West Lafayette to take on the Boilermakers. Can new Head Coach Barry Odom turn things around quickly like he did at UNLV? If he does, you can assume his team will be much better at home.

Potential ’25 spots: Purdue is expected to be a double-digit home favorite in each of its first two games, both at home. Can success in those two games lead to a 2025 resurgence?

–

RUTGERS is 15-4 ATS (78.9%) in non-conference games since HC Greg Schiano’s return in 2020

Steve’s thoughts: Teams in the Big Ten and SEC need to be successful in non-conference play to get ready for the rigors of their league slates. Rutgers under Greg Schiano has navigated these waters well. This is much of the reason the Scarlet Knights have been in bowl games in three of the last four seasons.

Potential ’25 spots: Rutgers plays three non-conference games in 2025, starting 8/28 vs. Ohio U.

–

STANFORD is 10-28 ATS (26.3%) following an outright loss since 2019

Steve’s thoughts: Bad teams lose often and can’t get out of the pattern. Stanford has been a bad team for a while now, going exactly 3-9 in four straight seasons. Can the famous duo of GM Andrew Luck and HC Frank Reich pull them out of the abyss? That remains to be seen, but avoiding lengthy losing skids has to be a big part of the revival.

Potential ’25 spots: Considering that Stanford opens in what should be road underdog roles in each of its first two games, this trend will probably be tested early, almost surely at home vs. Boston College in Week 3.

–

TEMPLE is 5-17 ATS (22.7%) in road/neutral games over the last four seasons

Steve’s thoughts: Temple’s football program is going through a rough patch, 13-42 overall dating back to 2020. Not a real surprise to see that the Owls have had a hard time covering point spreads on the road. College football bettors who back terrible teams on the road deserve to lose. Don’t be one of those bettors.

Potential ’25 spots: Temple’s first road test of 2025 is an interesting one at UMass on 8/30, as the Owls are expected to be favored

–

TENNESSEE is 16-4 ATS (80%%) in non-conference games in the four seasons under HC Josh Heupel

Steve’s thoughts: Heupel has resurrected the Tennessee program on a national scale in his four years in Knoxville. A big part of that is taking care of business against non-conference foes as it readies itself for the rigors of SEC play.

Potential ’25 spots: Tennessee’s non-conference slate starts 8/30 in a neutral field matchup with Syracuse

–

TEXAS A&M is 3-11 ATS (21.4%) in non-conference games over the last three seasons

Steve’s thoughts: As opposed to a few of the teams I have already detailed regarding using non-conference tune-up games, Texas A&M has not used these opportunities wisely. The Aggies have struggled against their non-SEC foes. To be fair, there have been some tough tests among those contests, notably losses to Notre Dame, Miami, and Appalachian State in the last three seasons, but improving on this trend still has to be a top priority for HC Mike Elko.

Potential ’25 spots: The first three games are non-conference tilts, including a rematch contest at Notre Dame in Week 3.

–

TEXAS TECH is 17-4 ATS (81%) after an outright loss over the last four seasons

Steve’s thoughts: With a nation-high 21 starters returning for 2025, Texas Tech is riding high hopes into the 2025 season, and I’m not personally banking on the Red Raiders losing too many games. That said, I do have them positioned to be an underdog three times at this point,

Potential ’25 spots: The first underdog spot for HC Joey McGuire’s team figures to be at Utah on 9/20. The follow-up game would be post-bye week at Houston on 10/4.

–

TROY is 15-5 ATS (75%) in road/neutral games over the last three seasons

Steve’s thoughts: Even in its down season of 2024, which featured a new coaching staff and just four returning starters, Troy still managed to go 3-3 ATS on the road. That still leaves the Trojans with a 75% ATS success rate dating back to 2022 in that spot.

Potential ’25 spots: The first road game will definitely be a test, but Troy will be a heavy underdog to a Clemson team coming off a mammoth opener versus LSU. Potential letdown spot for the Tigers for sure.

–

UAB is 0-13 ATS (0%) following an outright win and 4-15 (21.1%) in road/neutral games over the last three seasons

Steve’s thoughts: There were countless analysts who seriously questioned the wisdom of UAB hiring former NFL QB Trent Dilfer as its head coach prior to the 2023 season. He had only been a TV analyst and high school coach prior to. Those concerns have been clearly validated by trends like these, as he simply can’t get this team to a level of consistent success.

Potential ’25 spots: Both of these trends figure to be in play in Week 2 when UAB travels to Navy, assuming, of course, that the Blazers beat Alabama State in the opener.

–

UNLV is 22-5 ATS (81.5%) in non-conference games since 2018

Steve’s thoughts: The Runnin’ Rebels have become a very trendy team in recent years, some very good, some very bad. HC Barry Odom’s teams went 18-10 ATS for bettors in his two years and carried on this incredible non-conference performance angle. Will it continue under new HC Dan Mullen. Considering this long-running trend covers three different coaches, I wouldn’t bet against it.

Potential ’25 spots: There are four non-conference games in 2025, all in the first four contests, starting 8/23 vs. Idaho State.

–

USC is 28-12 ATS (70%) Over the total in the last three seasons

Steve’s thoughts: To no one’s surprise, this trend coincides with the arrival of HC Lincoln Riley. His Trojans’ teams have scored right around 38 PPG in his three-year tenure, while his defenses have yielded over 29 PPG. That’s a lot of points to average, making it tough for oddsmakers to post high enough totals.

Potential ’25 spots: Interestingly, USC plays some of the historically lower-scoring teams in the Big Ten this season. Will it affect this Over trend?

–

UTAH ST is 3-15 ATS (16.7%) in road/neutral games over the last three seasons

Steve’s thoughts: I’ve personally questioned the wisdom of HC Bronco Mendenhall leaving New Mexico for Utah State this past offseason, especially with how he finally made the Lobos competitive in 2024. Plus. The Aggies have finished under .500 in three straight seasons and continue to flounder on the road.

Potential ’25 spots: Utah State has a very difficult first road game in Week 2 at Texas A&M, and then another three weeks later at Vanderbilt.

–

UTEP is 9-24 ATS (27.3%) in non-conference games since 2017

Steve’s thoughts: UTEP has won 23 total games since 2017, and it has been a dismal period for Miners’ fans. There isn’t a whole lot of reason for more success in 2025, it seems. Playing in one of the weaker conferences in the country hasn’t aided this program in any way either.

Potential ’25 spots: Can HC Scotty Walden eek out a win or two in the first four games, all non-conference? I wouldn’t bet on it.

–

VIRGINIA TECH is 6-19 ATS (24%) in non-conference games since 2019

Steve’s thoughts: Mediocrity has befallen the Virginia Tech program over the last decade, and this trend has a lot to do with it. Playing the Hokies in a non-conference tilt used to be one of the tougher tests in the country. HC Brent Pry needs this to change to get his program back to what it once was.

Potential ’25 spots: Two SEC tests await in the first two games this season as Virginia Tech takes on South Carolina in a neutral field tilt and then hosts Vanderbilt a week later.

–

WAKE FOREST is 2-10 ATS (16.7%) at Home ATS over the last two seasons

Steve’s thoughts: Wake Forest went 4-8 in each of former HC Dave Clawson’s final two seasons atop the program. Much of the struggle can be attributed to the inability to win games at home. Let’s put it this way…from 2019-2022, the Demon Deacons went 20-4 outright at home. The last two years, they were 4-9. Something had to change. Insert Jack Dickert, who led Washington State to an 8-5 mark last season.

Potential ’25 spots: Wake Forest’s first four games are at home this season, and there are seven overall.

–

WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS (0%) in road/neutral games and 0-6 (0%) following outright wins last season

Steve’s thoughts: Washington went from a 14-1 record in 2023 and national runner-up finish to 6-7 last year. Its weak spots were evident, horrible on the road, and unable to string back-to-back wins together. It was a massive fall that happened to coincide with the team’s first season in the Big Ten. Hopefully, it’s not a sign of things to come.

Potential ’25 spots: The Huskies face a first road game at a weakened Washington State team in Week 3 after playing their first two games as hefty home favorites. What could go wrong?

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR