The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football bowl games through December 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top college football betting trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* In games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 40-17 (70.2%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): Clemson-Texas (o/u at 51.5)

* Teams that lose a game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 41-67 SU and 37-67-4 ATS (35.6%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): OHIO STATE (-7.5 vs. Tennessee)

* SAM HOUSTON STATE is 17-5 (77.3%) ATS as an underdog since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): SAM HOUSTON STATE (+7 vs. Georgia Southern)

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 26-15 (63.4%) through midway this season. Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.

System Match (PLAY UNDER): NORTHERN ILLINOIS-FRESNO STATE (o/u at 42)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: SMU +8.5 at Penn State (+4.8 difference)

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2024 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Tuesday, December 10. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Here are the systems with updated language and records (from midway through this season) we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%), although a slight improvement at 34-36 ATS in 2024. This angle has produced at around a 46% consistently since first discovered, so I would expect an end-of-season slowdown. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARMY (vs. Navy), MEMPHIS, CALIFORNIA, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, FLORIDA, TENNESSEE, UTSA, SAN JOSE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 231-251 ATS (47.9%). In 2022 it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. This year it is actually 67-63 ATS, so I would expect this to cool down over the rest of the season. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARMY (vs. Navy), TENNESSEE, SAN JOSE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 177-167 ATS (51.5%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of majority handle can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): INDIANA, TENNESSEE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it is 20-13 ATS in 2024. It suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, CLEMSON, TENNESSEE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS game for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 405-444 ATS (47.7%), even after a 92-90 ATS start to this season. More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer. I would expect the late-season results to bring this year’s record back into normalcy.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS, OHIO, TEXAS, SAN JOSE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 52. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 57-44 (56.4%). This remains pretty rare, as it occurred in only 12 of 406 games this season.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SOUTH ALABAMA-WESTERN MICHIGAN, SOUTH FLORIDA-SAN JOSE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 26-15 (63.4%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NORTHERN ILLINOIS-FRESNO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 76-49 (60.8%), improving this season a bit after a 24-15 start. This system improved also its win percentage in 2023, so it’s on an upward climb. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NONE YET

CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a slight majority number of money line bets on a team (51-60%), bettors boast a respectable 26-19 SU (57.7%) record for +5.37 units of profit and an ROI of 11.9%. This has happened in only about one of every 10 games on average, so it is rare.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): OHIO, OHIO STATE, FRESNO STATE

College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting trend systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 192-94 SU and 165-113-8 ATS (59.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NOTRE DAME (-7.5 vs. Indiana), PENN STATE (-8.5 vs. SMU), TEXAS (-11 vs. Clemson), OHIO STATE (-7.5 vs. Tennessee)

Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 111-22 SU and 81-48-4 ATS (62.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NOTRE DAME (-7.5 vs. Indiana), PENN STATE (-8.5 vs. SMU), TEXAS (-11 vs. Clemson), OHIO STATE (-7.5 vs. Tennessee)

Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 56-19 SU and 49-23-3 ATS (68.1%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NOTRE DAME (-7.5 vs. Indiana), PENN STATE (-8.5 vs. SMU), OHIO STATE (-7.5 vs. Tennessee)

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #4
In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 40-17 (70.2%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the Under record jumps to 22-7 (75.9%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): Clemson-Texas (o/u at 51.5)

Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems 

Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 41-67 SU and 37-67-4 ATS (35.6%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): OHIO STATE (-7.5 vs. Tennessee)

Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
Over the course of the last decade, teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 139-104 ATS (57.2%).
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+7.5 at Notre Dame)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

NO QUALIFYING REVENGE SYSTEMS for pre-Christmas bowl games

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following college football betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

This section’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. FRESNO STATE +2.5 (+4.0)
2. SMU +8.5 (+3.1)
3. SAM HOUSTON STATE +7 (+2.8)
4. WESTERN KENTUCKY +7.5 (+1.9)
5. COASTAL CAROLINA +7.5 (+1.5)

This section’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOTRE DAME -7.5 (+1.1)
2. OHIO -1.5 (+0.7)
3 (tie). ARMY -6.5 (+0.4) vs. Navy
FLORIDA -12.5 (+0.4)
5. TEXAS -11 (+0.1)

This section’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SMU +8.5 (+4.8)
2. TULANE +12.5 (+4.6)
3 (tie). INDIANA +7.5 (+3.0)
CLEMSON +11 (+3.0)
5. COASTAL CAROLINA +7.5 (+1.9)

This section’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CALIFORNIA -4 (+0.4)

This section’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SOUTH FLORIDA-SAN JOSE STATE OVER 62.5 (+2.5)
2. SMU-PENN STATE OVER 54 (+2.1)
3. CLEMSON-TEXAS OVER 51.5 (+1.5)
4. INDIANA-NOTRE DAME OVER 50.5 (+1.4)
5. NAVY-ARMY OVER 38.5 (+1.0)

This section’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS-WEST VIRGINIA UNDER 56.5 (-3.0)
2 (tie). WESTERN KENTUCKY-JAMES MADISON UNDER 53 (-0.8)
TENNESSEE-OHIO STATE UNDER 47 (-0.8)
4. SOUTH ALABAMA-W MICHIGAN UNDER 57 (-0.4)
5. COASTAL CAROLINA-UTSA UNDER 57.5 (-0.2)

This section’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WEST VIRGINIA +2.5 (+8.1)
2. TULANE +12.5 (+7.7)
3 (tie). SAM HOUSTON STATE +7 (+6.3)
COASTAL CAROLINA +7.5 (+6.3)
5. INDIANA +7.5 (+5.3)

This section’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OHIO STATE -7.5 (+5.6)
2. CALIFORNIA -4 (+5.4)
3. SAN JOSE STATE -2.5 (+2.8)
4. PENN STATE -8.5 (+1.1)
5. ARMY -6.5 (+0.8) vs. Navy

This section’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA-NOTRE DAME OVER 50.5 (+4.1)
2. OHIO-JACKSONVILLE STATE OVER 54.5 (+4.0)
3. TENNESSEE-OHIO STATE OVER 47 (+2.3)
4. SMU-PENN STATE OVER 54 (+1.4)
5. CLEMSON-TEXAS OVER 51.5 (+0.9)

This section’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SOUTH FLORIDA-SAN JOSE STATE UNDER 62.5 (-5.3)
2. NORTHERN ILLINOIS-FRESNO STATE UNDER 42 (-3.7)
3. TULANE-FLORIDA UNDER 50.5 (-2.4)
4. CALIFORNIA-UNLV UNDER 51.5 (-2.1)
5. COASTAL CAROLINA-UTSA UNDER 57.5 (-1.0)

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* CLEMSON is 22-11 (66.7%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (+11 vs. Texas)

* FLORIDA is 7-16-1 (30.4%) ATS in Non-Conference games in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA (-12.5 vs. Tulane)

* FRESNO STATE is 32-18-1 (64%) UNDER the total since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NIU-Fresno State (o/u at 42)

* JAMES MADISON is 23-13 (63.9%) ATS as a favorite since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-7 vs. WKU)

* MEMPHIS and WEST VIRGINIA are both on runs of 5-1 to the OVER
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEMPHIS-WEST VIRGINIA (o/u at 56.5)

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-2.5 vs. Fresno State)

* PENN STATE is 9-20 (31%) ATS coming off SU loss since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): PENN STATE (-8.5 vs. SMU)

* SAM HOUSTON STATE is 17-5 (77.3%) ATS as underdog since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): SAM HOUSTON STATE (+7 vs. Georgia Southern)

* SAM HOUSTON STATE is 6-0 UNDER the total in the last six games of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): Georgia Southern-Sam Houston State (o/u at 47)

* TENNESSEE is 15-1 (93.8%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2021
* TENNESSEE is 5-13 (27.8%) ATS as an Underdog since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TENNESSEE (+7.5 at Ohio State)

* UNLV is 23-6 (79.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (+4 vs. California)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(453) NAVY vs. (454) ARMY
Trend: UNDER the total is 16-1-1 in the last 18 of the Navy-Army rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 38)

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