The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 11. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Higher-ranked home teams playing as single-digit favorites or underdogs against a worse-ranked opponent have gone 71-30 SU and 63-35-3 ATS (64.3%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-7.5 vs USC)

• UTSA has won 14 of its last 15 conference games ATS when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): UTSA (+2.5 vs North Texas)

* When there is a win-loss record difference of 5+ wins in any game, the better team is on a 91-54 ATS (62.8%) surge since 2016 when the line is not -21 or higher.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WESTERN MICHIGAN (-15.5 at Akron), WYOMING (-7.5 at UTEP)

* Teams that have won back-to-back conference games both SU and ATS while being defensively dominant (<12 PPG allowed in those two games), have been tremendous when playing on the road in the next game, 64-35 ATS (64.6%) since 2019.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DUKE (+13.5 at Miami (FL)), GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-5.5 at Georgia State), TEXAS (+4 at LSU), JACKSONVILLE STATE (-7.5 at Western Kentucky)

* LIBERTY is 0-12 ATS in the last 12 as a favorite of 20+ points
Trend Match (FADE): LIBERTY (-20.5 vs Middle Tennessee State)

* College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 117-23 SU and 88-47-5 ATS (65.2%) since 2016. 
System Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-13.5 vs Georgia Tech)

* Teams coming off losses in which they were road dogs of less than 3 points are just 74-124 ATS (37.4%) in the follow-up game since 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALL STATE (+2.5 vs Buffalo), WASHINGTON STATE (-9.5 vs Colorado State)

* Over the total has converted in nine of the last ten matchups between Arkansas and Mississippi State
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AUBURN-MISSISSIPPI STATE (o/u at 50.5)

* HAWAII is 17-3-2 ATS (85%) as a home underdog in conference games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): HAWAII (+6.5 vs North Dakota State)

College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB Ranked Team System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 240-126 SU and 208-149-9 ATS (58.3%). 
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SMU (+1.5 vs Wake Forest), INDIANA (-7.5 vs USC), ARIZONA (+3 vs Utah), LSU (-4 vs Texas)
Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 133-34 SU and 100-63-4 ATS (61.3%). 
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-7.5 vs USC)
Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 71-30 SU and 63-35-3 ATS (64.3%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-7.5 vs USC)

CFB Ranked Team System #5: Unranked teams that favored over ranked teams in Power 4 conference games boast a record of 66-33 SU and 55-40-4 ATS (57.9%) dating back to November 2016.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA STATE (-3.5 vs Texas Tech)
*WATCH FOR OKLAHOMA vs OLE MISS (+1.5 CURRENTLY)

CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 372-29 SU but just 175-222-4 ATS (44.1%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GEORGIA (-15.5 vs Missouri), IOWA (-16.5 vs Purdue)
*WATCH FOR NEW MEXICO vs UNLV (-14 CURRENTLY)

CFB Ranked Team System #7: Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 97-60 Under the total (61.8%) dating back to October 2016.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): FLORIDA-KENTUCKY (o/u at 52.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an upset win over a Top 15 ranked team are 129-99 SU but just 99-128-1 ATS (43.6%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ALABAMA (-15.5 at Vanderbilt), USC (+7.5 at Indiana), OREGON (-11.5 vs Michigan)

CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top 10 ranked team are just 147-153 SU and 134-164-2 ATS (45%) in the next game since October of 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MISSOURI (+15.5 at Georgia), OLE MISS (-1.5 at Oklahoma), LSU (-4 vs Texas), MINNESOTA (+9.5 at Penn State)

CFB Ranked Team System #10: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 128-31 SU but just 66-89-4 ATS (42.6%) since December of 2015.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (FL) (-13.5 vs Duke)

CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread are on a 238-55 SU and 169-121-3 ATS (58.3%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-10 at Colorado), INDIANA (-7.5 vs USC), NOTRE DAME (-29.5 vs Boston College)

CFB Ranked Team System #12: Ranked teams coming off double-digit losses have responded well lately, going 70-32 SU and 59-42-1 ATS (58.4%) in the next game since November 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE (-12.5 vs Northwestern), KENTUCKY (-3.5 vs Florida), OLE MISS (-1.5 at Oklahoma), LSU (-4 vs Texas)

CFB Ranked Team System #13: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 89-42 SU but just 57-72-2 ATS (44.2%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November of 2015.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR OKLAHOMA vs OLE MISS (+1.5 CURRENTLY)

CFB Ranked Team System #14: Teams still ranked even after losing as 7-point favorites or more are 82-38 SU but 48-70-2 ATS (40.7%) in the follow-up games. These teams are also 70-49-1 Under the total (58.8%) in these next contests since September of 2016.
System Match (FADE): OHIO STATE (-12.5 vs Northwestern)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NORTHWESTERN-OHIO STATE (o/u at 45.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 77-109 SU and 80-103-3 ATS (43.7%) since September 2019. These teams are also 91-52 Under the total (63.6%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): USC (+7.5 at Indiana), OKLAHOMA (+1.5 vs Ole Miss), UTAH (-2.5 at Arizona), TEXAS (+3.5 at LSU)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): USC-INDIANA (o/u at 49.5), OLE MISS-OKLAHOMA (o/u at 49.5), UTAH-ARIZONA (o/u at 54.5), TEXAS-LSU (o/u at 46.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #16: Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 103-86 SU and 113-74-2 ATS (60.4%) dating back to November of 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MISSOURI (+15.5 at Georgia), LSU (-4 vs Texas)

These detail top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 93-126 ATS (42.5%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARKANSAS STATE (+1.5 at Coastal Carolina), KANSAS (+3 at West Virginia)

* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 156-133 ATS (54%) surge since 2010.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): USC (+7.5 at Indiana), CALIFORNIA (+10 at Virginia), STANFORD (+15.5 at Virginia Tech)

* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 33-52 ATS (38.8%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): LA MONROE (+10.5 vs LA Lafayette)
*WATCH FOR MICHIGAN STATE vs WASHINGTON (+3 CURRENTLY)

* Conference home favorites coming off a double-digit conference loss are just 226-310 ATS (42.2%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOWLING GREEN (-5.5 vs Kent State), IOWA STATE (-3 vs Cincinnati), OHIO STATE (-12.5 vs Northwestern), COASTAL CAROLINA (-1.5 vs Arkansas State), VIRGINIA (-10 vs California), RICE (-2.5 vs Tulane), KENTUCKY (-3.5 vs Florida), LSU (-3.5 vs Texas), VIRGINIA TECH (-15.5 vs Stanford)

* Teams playing in a home conference game after losing and yielding 48+ points to another conference rival the previous game are just 79-109 ATS (42%) since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): VIRGINIA (-10 vs California), WESTERN KENTUCKY (+7.5 vs Jacksonville State), RICE (-2.5 vs Tulane), MARSHALL (+1.5 vs Appalachian State), WEST VIRGINIA (-3 vs Kansas), VIRGINIA TECH (-15.5 vs Stanford), UTSA (+2.5 vs North Texas)

* Teams playing as road underdogs in conference play after a game in which they turned the ball over 4+ times have been huge Under plays on totals, 134-89 (60%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): KENT STATE-BOWLING GREEN (o/u at 43.5), TROY-SOUTH ALABAMA (o/u at 55.5), UAB-TEMPLE (o/u at 48.5), MICHIGAN-OREGON (o/u at 38.5)

* Big 10 road favorites of -4 or less have gone 33-13 SU and 29-16-1 ATS (64.4%) in conference play since 2021
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-3 at Michigan State)

* Big 10 home underdogs of >= 11.5 points in Weeks 11 or later in the season have gone Over the total at a 25-8 (75.8%) rate in conference play since 2017
System Match (PLAY OVER): NEBRASKA-RUTGERS (spread RUTG +13.5, o/u at 52.5)

* Big 10 home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone Under the total at a 44-21 (67.7%) rate in conference play since 2017
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PURDUE at IOWA (spread IOWA -16.5, o/u at 47.5)

* Over the total is 23-10 (69.7%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): AUBURN-MISSISSIPPI STATE (spread MSST +2.5, o/u at 50.5), TENNESSEE-TEXAS A&M (spread T&M +2.5, o/u at 43.5), OLE MISS-OKLAHOMA (spread OKLA +1.5, o/u at 49.5)

* Under the total is 78-51-1 (60.5%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): FLORIDA ST-PITTSBURGH (spread PITT -3.5, o/u at 54.5), SYRACUSE-NC STATE (spread NCST +3, o/u at 53.5)

* AAC FAVORITES in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 124-20 SU and 79-59-6 ATS (57.2%) in conference play since 2015
System Match (PLAY): EAST CAROLINA (-11.5 at Charlotte)

* Home underdogs of > 10 points on Tues/Wed Night MACtion have gone Over the total at a 16-6-1 (72.7%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY OVER): WESTERN MICHIGAN-AKRON (o/u at 49.5)

* Favorites in the -16.5 to -30.5 line range on Tues/Wed Night MACtion are 22-7 (75.9%) ATS since 2015
System Match (PLAY): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-18.5 vs Sacramento St)

* MAC home/neutral underdogs in the +2.5 to +5.5 line range have seen their totals go Under at a 45-24 rate (65.2%) in conference play since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BUFFALO-BALL STATE (spread BALL STATE +2.5, o/u at 51.5)

* Sun Belt road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 75-30 SU and 64-41 ATS (61%) in conference play since 2015
System Match (PLAY): GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-5.5 at Georgia St)

* Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 58-34-1 (63%) rate since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LA LAFAYETTE-LA MONROE (o/u at 49.5)

* Sun Belt small home favorites/pick ’ems in the PK to -5.5 line range and totals within the 52.5-65 range have had these totals go Under at a 45-21 (68.2%) rate in conference play since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TROY-SOUTH ALABAMA (spread USA -3, o/u at 55.5)

* Under the total is 60-45-1 (57.1%) in Conference USA expected-tight matchups (-3 to +2.5 line range) since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NEW MEXICO STATE-MISSOURI STATE (spread MISSOURI STATE  -1.5, o/u at 48.5)

Negative FADE trends:

• MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE is on a 1-12 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win
Trend Match (FADE): MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (+20.5 at Liberty)

• MICHIGAN STATE is on a 1-14 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win
Trend Match (FADE): MICHIGAN STATE (+3 vs Washington)

• UCF has lost 14 of its last 16 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trend Match (FADE): UCF (-3.5 vs Arizona State)

• STANFORD is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 conference games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): STANFORD (+15.5 at Virginia Tech)

• RUTGERS is on a 5-13 ATS skid as a Big Ten home underdog
Trend Match (FADE): RUTGERS (+13.5 vs Nebraska) 

• NEBRASKA is just 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 games as a Big Ten favorite
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (-13.5 at Rutgers)

• TEMPLE is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 conference games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): TEMPLE (-2.5 vs UAB)

• MEMPHIS is on a 12-22 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win
Trend Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-3.5 at South Florida)

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• UTSA has won 14 of its last 15 conference games ATS when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): UTSA (+2.5 vs North Texas)

• TROY has won 15 of its last 19 Sun Belt road games ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (+3 at South Alabama)

• SAN JOSE ST is on a 12-3 ATS surge as a double-digit conference underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN JOSE STATE (+12.5 at Air Force)

• KANSAS STATE is on an 11-2 ATS run in Big 12 action when coming off a blowout loss of 20+ points
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (+10 at TCU)

Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 157-202-1 ATS (43.7%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TULANE (+2.5 at Rice), FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+5.5 at Tulsa), TULSA (-5.5 vs FAU), UTSA (+2.5 vs North Texas)

Dismal offensive performances carry over
College football teams that gained 100 yards or fewer in a game have not bounced back well in the next, going just 27-35-1 ATS (43.5%) in their last 63 tries.
System Match (FADE): NEVADA (-7 at Northern Illinois)

Forcing many turnovers doesn’t lead to success in the next outing at home
Teams playing as home favorites after a game in which they forced 4+ turnovers are just 80-102 ATS (44%) since 2021.
System Match (FADE): LOUISIANA TECH (-17.5 vs Southern Miss)

Playing well offensively but losing a good sign for next outing
College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 64-49-2 ATS (56.6%) over the last 13 years.
System Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (-3 vs Kansas)

Road favorites struggle when coming off a close loss
Road favorites coming off a close loss of 10 points or fewer are just 83-115 ATS (41.9%) since 2022. Over the total is also 118-83 (58.7%) in these games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SYRACUSE (-3 at NC State), WASHINGTON (-3 at Michigan State)

Road underdogs solid when coming off a blowout loss
Road underdogs of +27 or fewer are 130-75 ATS (63.4%) coming off a loss of 27 points or more since 2022. Under the total is also 115-90 (56.1%) in those games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS STATE (+10 at TCU), TULANE (+2.5 at Rice), GEORGIA TECH (+13.5 at Clemson), STANFORD (+15.5 at Virginia Tech), SOUTHERN MISS (+17.5 at Louisiana Tech)

Ride teams off uber-dominant performances
Any team coming off a game scoring 60+ points is 88-63 ATS (58.3%) in the follow-up game since 2022.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+5.5 at Tulsa), TULSA (-5.5 vs FAU), WAKE FOREST (-1.5 at SMU), BOISE ST (-10.5 vs Oregon St), OKLAHOMA ST (-3.5 vs Texas Tech)

Big upsets turn into focused defensive efforts next time out
Teams coming off a road conference upset loss in which they were favored by -7 or more have been big Under the total teams, 71-54 (56.8%) since 2021. These teams’ defensive points allowed fell from 31.8 PPG to 21.7 PPG.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): KENT STATE-BOWLING GREEN (o/u at 44.5), NORTH TEXAS-UTSA (o/u at 77.5)

Small road underdog losses can be demoralizing
Teams coming off losses in which they were road dogs of less than 3 points are just 74-124 ATS (37.4%) in the follow-up game since 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALL STATE (+2.5 vs Buffalo), WASHINGTON STATE (-9.5 vs Colorado State)

Home favorites off a small conference upset haven’t been good bets
Teams coming off outright conference upsets when a dog of +3 points or fewer are just 68-102 ATS (40%) when favored at home in the follow-up game.
System Match (FADE): PENN STATE (-9.5 vs Minnesota)

CFB Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors 

The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

CFB Streaks Betting System #1: Teams that have lost their last two games outright but won both ATS have been bad bets when playing as underdogs again in the next contest, going 57-85 ATS (40.1%) since 2017.
System Match (FADE): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+7 vs Nevada)

CFB Streaks Betting System #2: Teams that have won their last two games outright while losing both ATS have been fantastic when hosting a conference team in the next outing, 70-37-1 ATS (65.4%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-7.5 vs USC)

CFB Streaks Betting System #3: Teams that have won back-to-back conference games both SU and ATS while being defensively dominant (<12 PPG allowed in those two games), have been tremendous when playing on the road in the next game, 64-35 ATS (64.6%) since 2019.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DUKE (+13.5 at Miami (FL)), GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-5.5 at Georgia State), TEXAS (+4 at LSU), JACKSONVILLE STATE (-7.5 at Western Kentucky)

CFB Streaks Betting System #5: Teams that have lost their last three games SU and ATS, all in conference play, have gone just 67-97 ATS (40.9%) when hosting a conference foe in the next game.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MISSISSIPPI STATE (+2.5 vs Auburn), SAM HOUSTON STATE (+7.5 vs Kennesaw State)

CFB Streaks Betting System #6: Teams either on four-game ATS winning streaks or four-game ATS losing streaks have been bad bets as small favorites (-4.5 or shorter) in the next contest, going just 94-106 SU and 79-118-3 ATS (40.1%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO (-2.5 at Ball St), WAKE FOREST (-1.5 at SMU)
*WATCH FOR GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA STATE (-5.5 CURRENTLY)*

CFB Streaks Betting System #7: Road/neutral teams who have won their last four ATS have been solid bets as larger favorites (-7.5 or higher) in the next game, going 89-19 SU and 59-45-4 ATS (56.7%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SOUTH CAROLINA (-7.5 at Arkansas), WYOMING (-7.5 at UTEP)

CFB Streaks Betting System #8: Home teams coming off of four straight SU losses but are now favored by more than a field goal (-3.5 or higher) have performed well, going 78-18 SU and 59-35-2 ATS (62.8%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON STATE (-9.5 vs Colorado State)
*WATCH FOR TEMPLE vs UAB (-2.5 CURRENTLY) and RICE vs TULANE (-2.5 CURRENTLY)

CFB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for CFB teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

CFB Team Strength Betting System #1:
In FBS vs. FBS games in Week 5 or later with home favorites of -25 or higher, Over the total is 77-48 (61.6%) since 2020.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOSTON COLLEGE-NOTRE DAME (o/u at 52.5)

CFB Team Strength Betting System #2:
When there is a won-lost record difference of 5+ wins in any game, the better team is on a 91-54 ATS (62.8%) surge since 2016 when the line is not -21 or higher.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WESTERN MICHIGAN (-15.5 at Akron), WYOMING (-7.5 at UTEP)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

Best
* WISCONSIN is 12-12 SU and 14-10 ATS (58.3%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): WISCONSIN (-8.5 at Maryland)
* CALIFORNIA is 22-20 SU and 27-15 ATS (64.3%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+10 at Virginia)
* SOUTH FLORIDA is 8-29 SU but 21-16 ATS (56.8%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH FLORIDA (+3.5 vs Memphis)
* TULSA is 13-27 SU but 23-16 ATS (59%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (-5.5 vs FAU)

Worst
* MARSHALL is 14-13 SU but 10-17 ATS (37%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): MARSHALL (+1.5 vs Appalachian State)

College football revenge systems

Home/Road revenge line range angles that have thrived
Teams seeking revenge at home in a competitive line range (-3.5 to +3.5) after getting blown out by this team on the road (>= 20-point loss) last time have been solid bets, going 95-79 SU and 100-70-4 ATS (58.8%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WEST VIRGINIA (-3 vs Kansas), UTSA (+2.5 vs North Texas), OKLAHOMA STATE (-3.5 vs Texas Tech)

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 124-138 ATS (47.3%) since 2016. 
System Matches (FADE ALL): FLORIDA STATE (+3.5 at Pittsburgh), WISCONSIN (-8.5 at Maryland)

Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 117-23 SU and 88-47-5 ATS (65.2%) since 2016. 
System Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-13.5 vs Georgia Tech)

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 234-186 ATS (55.7%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): TULSA (-5.5 vs FAU)

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* AKRON is 21-33-1 (38.9%) ATS at home since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): AKRON (+15.5 vs Western Michigan)

* APPALACHIAN STATE is 11-29 ATS (27.5%) in the last 40 games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): APPALACHIAN STATE (-1.5 at Marshall)

* ARIZONA STATE is 33-19-1 (63.5%) ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA STATE (+3.5 at UCF)

* BALL STATE is 43-34-1 (55.8%) UNDER the total over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUFFALO-BALL STATE (o/u at 51.5)

* BOISE STATE is 19-10 ATS (65.5%) as a home favorite in Conference games since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-13.5 vs Oregon State)

* CALIFORNIA is 33-25 (56.9%) ATS as underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+10 at Virginia)

* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 10-15 ATS (40%) as a favorite in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-18.5 vs Sacramento State)

* CINCINNATI is 9-21 ATS (30%) as an underdog since 2021
* CINCINNATI is 13-26 (33.3%) ATS in conference games since 2022
* IOWA STATE is 38-21-2 ATS (64.4%) following up a SU loss since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): IOWA STATE (-3 vs Cincinnati)

* CHARLOTTE is 6-23 (20.7%) ATS in the last 29 home games
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+11.5 vs East Carolina)

* COLORADO is 13-8-1 (61.9%) ATS in the last 22 games following a SU loss
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+10 vs Houston)

* FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 11-19 (36.7%) ATS in the last 30 games following a SU win
* TULSA is 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) as a home favorite since 2019
Trends Match: 1 FADE FLORIDA ATLANTIC, 1 FADE TULSA (spread TULSA -5.5)

* FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL is 20-34-1 (37%) in Conference games over L7 seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+5.5 at Delaware)

* FLORIDA STATE is 14-27 (34.1%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2019
* FLORIDA STATE is 16-29-1 (35.6%) ATS in conference games since 2021
* PITTSBURGH is 51-33 (63.1%) Over the total since 2020
Trends Match: FADE FLORIDA STATE (+3.5 at Pitt), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 53.5)

* FRESNO STATE is 44-29-1 (60.3%) Under the total since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): FRESNO STATE-TEXAS STATE (o/u at 59.5)

* MISSOURI is 14-7 ATS (66.7%) in road/neutral games in the last three seasons
* MISSOURI’s Eliah Drinkwitz is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in November
* GEORGIA is 16-25 (39%) ATS in the last 41 games following a SU win
Trends Match (PLAY): MISSOURI (+15.5 at Georgia)

* GEORGIA STATE is 9-18 (33.3%) ATS in home games since 2022
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA STATE (+5.5 vs Georgia Southern)

* HAWAII is 17-3-2 ATS (85%) as a home underdog in conference games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): HAWAII (+6.5 vs North Dakota State)

* ILLINOIS is 20-10-1 (66.7%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): ILLINOIS (+10 at UCLA)

* JAMES MADISON is 36-21 (63.2%) ATS as favorite since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-4 at UConn)

* KANSAS is 19-8 to the Over (70.4%) as a road/neutral underdog since 2021
* WEST VIRGINIA is 17-6 ATS (73.9%) in the last 23 games as a home favorite
Trends Match: PLAY WEST VIRGINIA (-3 vs Kansas), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 67.5)

* KANSAS STATE is 14-10-1 ATS (58.3%) following up a SU loss in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS ST (+10 at TCU)

* KENT STATE is 16-32 (33.3%) ATS in the last 48 games as an Underdog
* BOWLING GREEN is 8-24 ATS (25%) as a single-digit favorite since 2014
Trends Match: 1 FADE KENT STATE, 1 FADE BOWLING GREEN (spread BGSU -4.5)

* LA LAFAYETTE is 5-13 ATS (27.8%) as a double-digit favorite in conference games since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAFAYETTE (-10.5 at LA Monroe)

* LIBERTY is 0-12 ATS in the last 12 as favorite of 20+ points
Trend Match (FADE): LIBERTY (-20.5 vs Middle Tennessee State)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 47-34-1 (58%) Over the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SOUTHERN MISS-LOUISIANA TECH (o/u at 55.5)

* MEMPHIS is 26-11 (70.3%) to the Over in the last 37 conference games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEMPHIS-SOUTH FLORIDA (o/u at 49.5)

* MIAMI (OH) is on a 44-35-1 (55.7%) Under the total run over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OHIO-MIAMI (OH) (o/u at 47.5)

* MIAMI (FL) is 7-14 ATS (33.3%) as a home favorite in conference games since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (FL) (-13.5 vs Duke)

* MICHIGAN is 21-14 (60%) ATS in road/neutral games in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (+11.5 at Oregon)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 23-17 (57.5%) ATS at home since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSISSIPPI STATE (+2.5 vs Auburn)

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 6-28-2 (17.6%) ATS in the last 36 home games
Trend Match (FADE): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+7 vs Nevada)

* NC STATE is 10-4 ATS (71.4%) as a home underdog since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): NC STATE (+3 vs Syracuse)

* OHIO U is 28-18 ATS (60.9%) in conference games over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (-1.5 at Miami (OH))

* OLE MISS is 19-26-2 (42.2%) ATS in conference games since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): OLE MISS (-1.5 at Oklahoma)

* PENN STATE is 39-25 (60.9%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-9.5 vs Minnesota)

* RUTGERS is 14-2 (87.5%) to the Over as a home underdog since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NEBRASKA-RUTGERS (o/u at 52.5)

* UTAH STATE is 10-19 ATS (34.5%) in road/neutral games over the last four seasons
* SAN DIEGO STATE is 56-36 (60.9%) Under the total since 2019
Trends Match: UTAH STATE (-2.5 at San Diego State), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)

* SAN JOSE STATE is 22-10 ATS (68.8%) as a road underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN JOSE STATE (+12.5 at Air Force)

* SOUTH CAROLINA is 20-13 (60.6%) ATS as a favorite in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-7.5 at Arkansas)

* STANFORD is 15-34 ATS (30.6%) following up an outright loss since 2019
* STANFORD is 9-26 ATS (25.7%) as a road underdog since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): STANFORD (+15.5 at Virginia Tech)

* UAB is 2-17-1 ATS (10.5%) following up an outright win and 8-20-1 (28.6%) in road/neutral games over the last four seasons
* TEMPLE is 26-15-1 (63.4%) ATS coming off a SU loss since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): TEMPLE (-2.5 vs UAB)

* TROY is 26-10 (72.2%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021
* SOUTH ALABAMA is 5-15 ATS (25%) as a single-digit favorite since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY): TROY (+3 at South Alabama)

* USC is 4-17 SU and 3-18 ATS (14.3%) in the last 21 visits to Eastern/Central time zone
* USC is 39-23 (62.9%) Over the total in the last four seasons
Trends Match: FADE USC (+7.5 at Indiana), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 49.5)

* UTSA is 21-10 ATS (67.7%) off a SU loss since 2019
* UTSA is 8-0 SU and ATS in the last eight as a home underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): UTSA (+2.5 vs North Texas)

* UTEP is 11-28 (28.2%) ATS at home since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): UTEP (+7.5 vs Wyoming)

* WASHINGTON is 6-10 ATS (37.5%) in the last 16 road/neutral games
* WASHINGTON is 29-14 (67.4%) to the Under in road games since 2017
Trends Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-3 at Michigan State), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Tuesday, November 10

(101) KENT STATE at (102) BOWLING GREEN
* KENT STATE is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games with Bowling Green
Trend Match (PLAY): KENT STATE (+5.5 at Bowling Green)

(103) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (104) AKRON
* Over  the total is 6-2 in the Broncos-Zips set since 2007
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WESTERN MICHIGAN-AKRON (o/u at 48.5)

Wednesday, November 11

(109) BUFFALO at (110) BALL STATE
* Underdogs are 3-5 SU but 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Buffalo-Ball State MAC series
Trend Match (PLAY): BALL STATE (+2.5 vs Buffalo)

Thursday, November 12

(115) MEMPHIS at (116) SOUTH FLORIDA
* Road teams are 7-6 SU and 10-1-2 ATS in the last 13 matchups between Memphis and South Florida, but did lose last year
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-4 at South Florida)

(117) LA LAFAYETTE at (118) LA MONROE
* Road teams have been the play historically in the Battle on the Bayou, going 14-9 SU and 20-3 ATS since 2003
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAFAYETTE (-10.5 at LA Monroe)

Saturday, November 14

(127) AUBURN at (128) MISSISSIPPI STATE
* AUBURN is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games with Mississippi State
Trend Match (PLAY): AUBURN (-2.5 at Mississippi State)

(141) ALABAMA at (142) VANDERBILT
* ALABAMA is 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six meetings with Vanderbilt
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-15.5 at Vanderbilt)

(145) GEORGIA SOUTHERN at (146) GEORGIA STATE
* Favorites are on 7-1 SU and ATS surge in GASO-GAST rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-5.5 at Georgia State)

(153) TROY at (154) SOUTH ALABAMA
* TROY is 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games with South Alabama
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (+3 at South Alabama)

(155) GEORGIA TECH at (156) CLEMSON
* CLEMSON is 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight instances hosting Georgia Tech
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-13.5 vs Georgia Tech)

(161) PURDUE at (162) IOWA
* Under the total has converted in five straight meetings between the Boilermakers and the Hawkeyes
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PURDUE-IOWA (o/u at 47.5)

(165) NEBRASKA at (166) RUTGERS
* Under the total has converted in five straight matchups between the Cornhuskers and the Scarlet Knights
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NEBRASKA-RUTGERS (o/u at 52.5)

(169) NORTH TEXAS at (170) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
* Home teams are on a 11-2 SU and 11-1-1 ATS run in the last 13 of North Texas-UTSA set
Trend Match (PLAY): UTSA (+2.5 vs North Texas)

(173) TULANE at (174) RICE
* Underdogs have gone 4-7 SU but 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of Green Wave-Owls AAC series
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (+2.5 at Rice)

(195) AUBURN at (196) MISSISSIPPI STATE
* Over the total has converted in nine of the last ten matchups between Arkansas and Mississippi State
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AUBURN-MISSISSIPPI STATE (o/u at 50.5)
* Home teams are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the overall set as well
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSISSIPPI ST (+2.5 vs Auburn)

(197) KANSAS STATE at (198) TCU
* KANSAS STATE is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS versus TCU since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (+10 at TCU)

(205) TEXAS TECH at (206) OKLAHOMA STATE
* TEXAS TECH is 4-5 SU but 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with Oklahoma State
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (+3.5 at Oklahoma State)

(211) MISSOURI at (212) GEORGIA
* MISSOURI is 0-9 SU but 7-2 ATS in their last nine games with SEC foe Georgia
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSOURI (+15.5 at Georgia)

(219) BOSTON COLLEGE at (220) NOTRE DAME
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Eagles-Irish set in South Bend
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOSTON COLLEGE-NOTRE DAME (o/u at 52.5)

(225) FLORIDA at (226) KENTUCKY
* Home teams are 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the Gators-Wildcats SEC rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (-3.5 vs Florida)

(229) UNLV at (230) NEW MEXICO
* Road teams have covered eight straight ATS in the UNLV-UNM series (7-1 SU)
Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (+14 at New Mexico)

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 4:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 665-730 ATS (47.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, UMASS, MEMPHIS, LA LAFAYETTE, UCLA, JAMES MADISON, CINCINNATI, MARYLAND, DUKE, NC STATE, NORTHWESTERN, CLEMSON, RUTGERS, ALABAMA, UAB, CHARLOTTE, KANSAS STATE, KENNESAW STATE, TENNESSEE, MISSOURI ST, DELAWARE, BAYLOR, ARIZONA STATE, GEORGIA, NEVADA, BOSTON COLLEGE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, VIRGINIA, LIBERTY, WASHINGTON, WEST VIRGINIA, MARSHALL, KENTUCKY, AIR FORCE, MINNESOTA, SOUTH ALABAMA, IOWA, LSU, NEW MEXICO, ARKANSAS, UTSA, OKLAHOMA STATE, WYOMING, COLORADO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since start of 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 295-317 ATS (48.2%). In 2022 it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. Last year it was 6 games over .500.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CENTRAL MICHIGAN, UCLA, CHARLOTTE, UCF, LIBERTY, WEST VIRGINIA, AIR FORCE, IOWA, VIRGINIA TECH

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 433-482 ATS (47.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO, BUFFALO, MEMPHIS, LA LAFAYETTE, HOUSTON, JAMES MADISON, ALABAMA, KENNESAW STATE, TENNESSEE, NEVADA, JACKSONVILLE STATE, WASHINGTON, OLE MISS, LOUISVILLE, UTAH STATE, WYOMING, NORTH DAKOTA STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 68%+ majority of the handle was on small home favorites of 7 points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 100-82 ATS (54.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COASTAL CAROLINA, MISSOURI STATE, DELAWARE, WEST VIRGINIA, KENTUCKY, SOUTH ALABAMA 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 182-161-2 ATS (53.1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): KENT STATE, SACRAMENTO STATE, UMASS, FLORIDA STATE, CINCINNATI, DUKE, NORTHWESTERN, UAB, TULANE, KANSAS STATE, BAYLOR, ARIZONA STATE, USC, BOSTON COLLEGE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, FRESNO STATE, SOUTHERN MISS, MINNESOTA, COLORADO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past four seasons, this majority group has gone 175-148-1 ATS (54.2%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, NORTHWESTERN, WAKE FOREST, TULANE, KANSAS ST, USC, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, MINNESOTA, TEXAS, TEXAS TECH

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their record since the start of 2022 is 323-273 (54.2%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WESTERN MICHIGAN, BOWLING GREEN, OHIO, BUFFALO, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, MEMPHIS, LA LAFAYETTE, FLORIDA STATE, UCLA, HOUSTON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ supermajority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 83-65 (56.1%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ILLINOIS-UCLA, NORTHWESTERN-OHIO STATE, GEORGIA TECH-CLEMSON, UAB-TEMPLE, EAST CAROLINA-CHARLOTTE, KENNESAW STATE-SAM HOUSTON STATE, ARIZONA STATE-UCF, MICHIGAN-OREGON, WASHINGTON-MICHIGAN STATE, WYOMING-UTEP, NORTH DAKOTA STATE-HAWAII

CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ supermajority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 230-211 (52.2%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SACRAMENTO STATE-CENTRAL MICHIGAN, KANSAS STATE-TCU, MINNESOTA-PENN STATE, TEXAS-LSU, UNLV-NEW MEXICO, UTAH STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE, NORTH DAKOTA STATE-HAWAII

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TULANE +2.5 (+4.4)
2(tie). UTSA +2.5 (+3.5)
OREGON STATE +13.5 (+3.5)
4. WAKE FOREST +1.5 (+3.3)
5. FLORIDA +3.5 (+3.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SOUTH CAROLINA -7.5 (+6.6)
2. TCU -10 (+4.0)
3. NEVADA -7 (+3.9)
4. TEMPLE -2.5 (+3.5)
5. OHIO STATE -12.5 (+3.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. VANDERBILT +15.5 (+8.2)
2. COLORADO +9.5 (+5.7)
3. BAYLOR +7.5 (+5.6)
4. COLORADO STATE +9.5 (+5.0)
5. WAKE FOREST +1.5 (+3.8)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). NOTRE DAME -29.5 (+7.4)
NEW MEXICO -14 (+7.4)
3. UCLA -10 (+4.5)
4. GEORGIA -15.5 (+4.4)
5. VIRGINIA TECH -15.5 (+4.0)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WYOMING-UTEP OVER 39.5 (+8.9)
2. EAST CAROLINA-CHARLOTTE OVER 44.5 (+7.5)
3. NORTH DAKOTA STATE-HAWAII OVER 38.5 (+6.4)
4. WISCONSIN-MARYLAND OVER 43.5 (+6.2)
5. MICHIGAN-OREGON OVER 38.5 (+5.3)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NORTH TEXAS-UTSA UNDER 76.5 (-13.1)
2. FLORIDA ATLANTIC-TULSA UNDER 74.5 (-8.3)
3. OREGON STATE-BOISE STATE UNDER 65.5 (-5.4)
4. TEXAS TECH-OKLAHOMA STATE UNDER 72.5 (-4.5)
5. HOUSTON-COLORADO UNDER 51.5 (-4.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OREGON STATE +13.5 (+8.3)
2. TEXAS TECH +3.5 (+6.6)
3. COLORADO STATE +9.5 (+5.8)
4. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +5.5 (+5.7)
5. GEORGIA STATE +5.5 (+5.5)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEVADA -7 (+9.5)
2. MIAMI (FL) -13.5 (+8.1)
3. SOUTH CAROLINA -7.5 (+7.1)
4. TEMPLE -2.5 (+6.8)
5. NORTH DAKOTA STATE -6.5 (+6.2)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WYOMING-UTEP OVER 39.5 (+4.7)
2. NORTH DAKOTA STATE-HAWAII OVER 38.5 (+4.6)
3. MEMPHIS-SOUTH FLORIDA OVER 49.5 (+3.7)
4. MICHIGAN-OREGON OVER 38.5 (+3.4)
5. TEXAS-LSU OVER 46.5 (+3.3)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. COLORADO STATE-WASHINGTON STATE UNDER 67.5 (-5.8)
2. CINCINNATI-IOWA STATE UNDER 60.5 (-3.9)
3. WAKE FOREST-SMU UNDER 61.5 (-3.6)
4. NORTH TEXAS-UTSA UNDER 76.5 (-3.3)
5. LOUISVILLE-NORTH CAROLINA UNDER 59.5 (-3.1)

Comparing Effective Yards Per Play Ratings to This Week’s Matchups

The following are taken from an article posted on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, looking at how Steve Makinen comes up with his ratings and any edges in games each weekend. As far as actionable items, here are the games for this weekend, as far as differential of EYPP ratings versus actual point spreads, with home field advantage built into the differences.

(223) OREGON STATE at (224) BOISE STATE
Actual Home Line: BOISE STATE: +-13.5
EYPP Home Line: BOISE STATE: +1.4
Difference: 14.9, Favors – OREGON STATE

(171) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (172) TULSA
Actual Home Line: TULSA: +-5.5
EYPP Home Line: TULSA: +-17.6
Difference: 12.1, Favors – TULSA

(195) SOUTH CAROLINA at (196) ARKANSAS
Actual Home Line: ARKANSAS: +7.5
EYPP Home Line: ARKANSAS: +19.5
Difference: 12, Favors – SOUTH CAROLINA

(205) TEXAS TECH at (206) OKLAHOMA STATE
Actual Home Line: OKLAHOMA STATE: +-3.5
EYPP Home Line: OKLAHOMA STATE: +-14.9
Difference: 11.4, Favors – OKLAHOMA STATE

(227) SAN JOSE STATE at (228) AIR FORCE
Actual Home Line: AIR FORCE: +-12.5
EYPP Home Line: AIR FORCE: +-1.2
Difference: 11.3, Favors – SAN JOSE STATE

(203) STANFORD at (204) VIRGINIA TECH
Actual Home Line: VIRGINIA TECH: +-15.5
EYPP Home Line: VIRGINIA TECH: +-4.7
Difference: 10.8, Favors – STANFORD

(221) FRESNO STATE at (222) TEXAS STATE UNIV
Actual Home Line: TEXAS STATE UNIV: +-10
EYPP Home Line: TEXAS STATE UNIV: +-20.6
Difference: 10.6, Favors – TEXAS STATE UNIV

(207) USC at (208) INDIANA
Actual Home Line: INDIANA: +-7.5
EYPP Home Line: INDIANA: +-17.7
Difference: 10.2, Favors – INDIANA

(155) GEORGIA TECH at (156) CLEMSON
Actual Home Line: CLEMSON: +-13.5
EYPP Home Line: CLEMSON: +-3.5
Difference: 10, Favors – GEORGIA TECH

(127) AUBURN at (128) MISSISSIPPI STATE
Actual Home Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE: +2.5
EYPP Home Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE: +-7.4
Difference: 9.9, Favors – MISSISSIPPI STATE

(151) LOUISVILLE at (152) NORTH CAROLINA
Actual Home Line: NORTH CAROLINA: +3.5
EYPP Home Line: NORTH CAROLINA: +13.3
Difference: 9.8, Favors – LOUISVILLE

(131) KANSAS at (132) WEST VIRGINIA
Actual Home Line: WEST VIRGINIA: +-3
EYPP Home Line: WEST VIRGINIA: +6
Difference: 9, Favors – KANSAS

(139) MINNESOTA at (140) PENN STATE
Actual Home Line: PENN STATE: +-9.5
EYPP Home Line: PENN STATE: +-17.8
Difference: 8.3, Favors – PENN STATE

(173) TULANE at (174) RICE
Actual Home Line: RICE: +-2.5
EYPP Home Line: RICE: +-10.3
Difference: 7.8, Favors – RICE

(109) BUFFALO at (110) BALL STATE
Actual Home Line: BALL STATE: +2.5
EYPP Home Line: BALL STATE: +-5.3
Difference: 7.8, Favors – BALL STATE

(129) JAMES MADISON at (130) CONNECTICUT
Actual Home Line: CONNECTICUT: +4
EYPP Home Line: CONNECTICUT: +-3.6
Difference: 7.6, Favors – CONNECTICUT

(177) UTAH at (178) ARIZONA
Actual Home Line: ARIZONA: +2.5
EYPP Home Line: ARIZONA: +-4.9
Difference: 7.4, Favors – ARIZONA

(137) UAB at (138) TEMPLE
Actual Home Line: TEMPLE: +-2.5
EYPP Home Line: TEMPLE: +-9.7
Difference: 7.2, Favors – TEMPLE

(141) ALABAMA at (142) VANDERBILT
Actual Home Line: VANDERBILT: +15.5
EYPP Home Line: VANDERBILT: +22.6
Difference: 7.1, Favors – ALABAMA

(161) PURDUE at (162) IOWA
Actual Home Line: IOWA: +-16.5
EYPP Home Line: IOWA: +-23.4
Difference: 6.9, Favors – IOWA

(217) JACKSONVILLE STATE at (218) W KENTUCKY
Actual Home Line: W KENTUCKY: +7.5
EYPP Home Line: W KENTUCKY: +14.2
Difference: 6.7, Favors – JACKSONVILLE STATE

(211) MISSOURI at (212) GEORGIA
Actual Home Line: GEORGIA: +-15.5
EYPP Home Line: GEORGIA: +-22.2
Difference: 6.7, Favors – GEORGIA

(209) TENNESSEE at (210) TEXAS A&M
Actual Home Line: TEXAS A&M: +2.5
EYPP Home Line: TEXAS A&M: +9
Difference: 6.5, Favors – TENNESSEE

(181) BAYLOR at (182) BYU
Actual Home Line: BYU: +-7.5
EYPP Home Line: BYU: +-14
Difference: 6.5, Favors – BYU

(123) HOUSTON at (124) COLORADO
Actual Home Line: COLORADO: +10
EYPP Home Line: COLORADO: +3.7
Difference: 6.3, Favors – COLORADO

(147) APPALACHIAN STATE at (148) MARSHALL
Actual Home Line: MARSHALL: +1.5
EYPP Home Line: MARSHALL: +7.8
Difference: 6.3, Favors – APPALACHIAN STATE

(153) TROY at (154) SOUTH ALABAMA
Actual Home Line: SOUTH ALABAMA: +-3
EYPP Home Line: SOUTH ALABAMA: +3.1
Difference: 6.1, Favors – TROY

(125) CINCINNATI at (126) IOWA STATE
Actual Home Line: IOWA STATE: +-3
EYPP Home Line: IOWA STATE: +2.9
Difference: 5.9, Favors – CINCINNATI

(197) KANSAS STATE at (198) TCU
Actual Home Line: TCU: +-10
EYPP Home Line: TCU: +-15.8
Difference: 5.8, Favors – TCU

(179) KENNESAW STATE at (180) SAM HOUSTON STATE
Actual Home Line: SAM HOUSTON STATE: +7.5
EYPP Home Line: SAM HOUSTON STATE: +1.7
Difference: 5.8, Favors – SAM HOUSTON STATE

(233) COLORADO STATE at (234) WASHINGTON STATE
Actual Home Line: WASHINGTON STATE: +-9.5
EYPP Home Line: WASHINGTON STATE: +-3.7
Difference: 5.8, Favors – COLORADO STATE

(231) UTAH STATE at (232) SAN DIEGO STATE
Actual Home Line: SAN DIEGO STATE: +2.5
EYPP Home Line: SAN DIEGO STATE: +8
Difference: 5.5, Favors – UTAH STATE

(115) MEMPHIS at (116) SOUTH FLORIDA
Actual Home Line: SOUTH FLORIDA: +3.5
EYPP Home Line: SOUTH FLORIDA: +9
Difference: 5.5, Favors – MEMPHIS

(219) BOSTON COLLEGE at (220) NOTRE DAME
Actual Home Line: NOTRE DAME: +-29.5
EYPP Home Line: NOTRE DAME: +-24.2
Difference: 5.3, Favors – BOSTON COLLEGE

(169) NORTH TEXAS at (170) TX-SAN ANTONIO
Actual Home Line: TX-SAN ANTONIO: +2.5
EYPP Home Line: TX-SAN ANTONIO: +7.7
Difference: 5.2, Favors – NORTH TEXAS

(121) ILLINOIS at (122) UCLA
Actual Home Line: UCLA: +-10
EYPP Home Line: UCLA: +-15.1
Difference: 5.1, Favors – UCLA

(101) KENT STATE at (102) BOWLING GREEN
Actual Home Line: BOWLING GREEN: +-4.5
EYPP Home Line: BOWLING GREEN: +0.1
Difference: 4.6, Favors – KENT STATE

(149) EAST CAROLINA at (150) CHARLOTTE
Actual Home Line: CHARLOTTE: +11.5
EYPP Home Line: CHARLOTTE: +6.9
Difference: 4.6, Favors – CHARLOTTE

(133) NORTHWESTERN at (134) OHIO STATE
Actual Home Line: OHIO STATE: +-12.5
EYPP Home Line: OHIO STATE: +-17
Difference: 4.5, Favors – OHIO STATE

(157) WAKE FOREST at (158) SMU
Actual Home Line: SMU: +1.5
EYPP Home Line: SMU: +5.9
Difference: 4.4, Favors – WAKE FOREST

(105) OHIO U at (106) MIAMI (OH)
Actual Home Line: MIAMI (OH): +1.5
EYPP Home Line: MIAMI (OH): +-2
Difference: 3.5, Favors – MIAMI (OH)

(187) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at (188) DELAWARE
Actual Home Line: DELAWARE: +-5.5
EYPP Home Line: DELAWARE: +-2
Difference: 3.5, Favors – FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

(143) DUKE at (144) MIAMI (FL)
Actual Home Line: MIAMI (FL): +-13.5
EYPP Home Line: MIAMI (FL): +-16.9
Difference: 3.4, Favors – MIAMI (FL)

(235) NORTH DAKOTA STATE at (236) HAWAII
Actual Home Line: HAWAII: +6.5
EYPP Home Line: HAWAII: +9.8
Difference: 3.3, Favors – NORTH DAKOTA STATE

(117) LA LAFAYETTE at (118) LA MONROE
Actual Home Line: LA MONROE: +10.5
EYPP Home Line: LA MONROE: +13.8
Difference: 3.3, Favors – LA LAFAYETTE

(145) GEORGIA SOUTHERN at (146) GEORGIA STATE
Actual Home Line: GEORGIA STATE: +5.5
EYPP Home Line: GEORGIA STATE: +2.2
Difference: 3.3, Favors – GEORGIA STATE

(175) WYOMING at (176) UTEP
Actual Home Line: UTEP: +7.5
EYPP Home Line: UTEP: +5
Difference: 2.5, Favors – UTEP

(165) NEBRASKA at (166) RUTGERS
Actual Home Line: RUTGERS: +13.5
EYPP Home Line: RUTGERS: +16
Difference: 2.5, Favors – NEBRASKA

(191) CALIFORNIA at (192) VIRGINIA
Actual Home Line: VIRGINIA: +-10
EYPP Home Line: VIRGINIA: +-7.5
Difference: 2.5, Favors – CALIFORNIA

(213) MIDDLE TENN STATE at (214) LIBERTY
Actual Home Line: LIBERTY: +-20.5
EYPP Home Line: LIBERTY: +-22.8
Difference: 2.3, Favors – LIBERTY

(103) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (104) AKRON
Actual Home Line: AKRON: +15.5
EYPP Home Line: AKRON: +13.3
Difference: 2.2, Favors – AKRON

(183) NEW MEXICO STATE at (184) MISSOURI STATE
Actual Home Line: MISSOURI STATE: +-1.5
EYPP Home Line: MISSOURI STATE: +0.5
Difference: 2, Favors – NEW MEXICO STATE

(135) WISCONSIN at (136) MARYLAND
Actual Home Line: MARYLAND: +8.5
EYPP Home Line: MARYLAND: +10.4
Difference: 1.9, Favors – WISCONSIN

(159) SYRACUSE at (160) NC STATE
Actual Home Line: NC STATE: +3
EYPP Home Line: NC STATE: +1.2
Difference: 1.8, Favors – NC STATE

(107) MASSACHUSETTS at (108) TOLEDO
Actual Home Line: TOLEDO: +-14.5
EYPP Home Line: TOLEDO: +-16.2
Difference: 1.7, Favors – TOLEDO

(189) SOUTHERN MISS at (190) LOUISIANA TECH
Actual Home Line: LOUISIANA TECH: +-17.5
EYPP Home Line: LOUISIANA TECH: +-16
Difference: 1.5, Favors – SOUTHERN MISS

(167) ARKANSAS STATE at (168) COASTAL CAROLINA
Actual Home Line: COASTAL CAROLINA: +-1.5
EYPP Home Line: COASTAL CAROLINA: +-3
Difference: 1.5, Favors – COASTAL CAROLINA

(225) FLORIDA at (226) KENTUCKY
Actual Home Line: KENTUCKY: +-3.5
EYPP Home Line: KENTUCKY: +-2.2
Difference: 1.3, Favors – FLORIDA

(119) FLORIDA STATE at (120) PITTSBURGH
Actual Home Line: PITTSBURGH: +-3.5
EYPP Home Line: PITTSBURGH: +-2.4
Difference: 1.1, Favors – FLORIDA STATE

(201) OLE MISS at (202) OKLAHOMA
Actual Home Line: OKLAHOMA: +1.5
EYPP Home Line: OKLAHOMA: +2.5
Difference: 1, Favors – OLE MISS

(185) MICHIGAN at (186) OREGON
Actual Home Line: OREGON: +-11.5
EYPP Home Line: OREGON: +-10.5
Difference: 1, Favors – MICHIGAN

(163) WASHINGTON at (164) MICHIGAN STATE
Actual Home Line: MICHIGAN STATE: +3
EYPP Home Line: MICHIGAN STATE: +3.7
Difference: 0.7, Favors – WASHINGTON

(193) TEXAS at (194) LSU
Actual Home Line: LSU: +-4
EYPP Home Line: LSU: +-4.7
Difference: 0.7, Favors – LSU

(111) SACRAMENTO STATE at (112) CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Actual Home Line: CENTRAL MICHIGAN: +-18.5
EYPP Home Line: CENTRAL MICHIGAN: +-18
Difference: 0.5, Favors – SACRAMENTO STATE

(229) UNLV at (230) NEW MEXICO
Actual Home Line: NEW MEXICO: +-14
EYPP Home Line: NEW MEXICO: +-14.5
Difference: 0.5, Favors – NEW MEXICO

(199) ARIZONA STATE at (200) UCF
Actual Home Line: UCF: +-3.5
EYPP Home Line: UCF: +-3.1
Difference: 0.4, Favors – ARIZONA STATE

(215) NEVADA at (216) NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Actual Home Line: NORTHERN ILLINOIS: +7
EYPP Home Line: NORTHERN ILLINOIS: +7.1
Difference: 0.1, Favors – NEVADA

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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