Effective College Football Play-by-Play Ratings for Week 11:
My Effective Play-by-Play projections reached five straight winning weeks after a 33-29 ATS record in Week 10, so I plan to finish out the season publishing these numbers each Tuesday. The full-season model is now 157-130-1 ATS (54.7%) since I started sharing in early October. This remains a pretty solid return for a math model in college football betting.
As a quick reminder, Effective Play-by-Play Ratings differ from my Effective Strength Ratings. Rather than simply gauging the end result, they evaluate a team’s performance across all scrimmage plays. Both models account for each team’s schedule to date.
Some prefer this approach to traditional power ratings based on scoring because the latter can be skewed by fluky plays, turnovers, fourth-down conversions, and other factors. Both methods have value, and combining different measures of team strength may be the best approach. Personally, I believe Effective Play-by-Play Ratings may offer a more accurate picture of team strength because they draw on a much larger data sample. That’s particularly useful in college football, where talent disparities between teams can be enormous.
All the strength ratings discussed here are adjusted for schedule strength, account for games that became noncompetitive late and include relevant injury adjustments.
And a couple of final notes for this week. I do have to clarify the final record-keeping explanation and a recommendation for usage. These numbers are logged against the CLOSING LINES. Over the past five weeks, there have been instances in which the line closed at a point where it differed from the line I posted on Tuesday. For instance, Miami was +5.5 at Notre Dame on Tuesday but finished at +7.5. The edge was still for Miami at +5.5 or +7.5, so that 31-24 decision was counted as a win for the system. Also, be sure to note the team edge being given is the same at the line it closes at. There have been a couple of games for which the line moved a point or two throughout the week and the edge shifted to the other team. And finally, yes, injuries and home/road field ratings are accounted for in these numbers.
Here are the Week 11 games ordered by the discrepancy between the Effective Play-by-Play line and the actual line. You may notice that the margins of the edges seem to be shrinking more and more each week as the data sample grows.
(223) OREGON STATE at (224) BOISE STATE
Actual Line: BOISE STATE: -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOISE STATE: +1.4
Difference: 14.9, Favors – OREGON STATE
(171) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (172) TULSA
Actual Line: TULSA: -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TULSA: -17.6
Difference: 12.1, Favors – TULSA
(195) SOUTH CAROLINA at (196) ARKANSAS
Actual Line: ARKANSAS: +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS: +19.5
Difference: 12, Favors – SOUTH CAROLINA
(205) TEXAS TECH at (206) OKLAHOMA STATE
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA STATE: -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA STATE: -14.9
Difference: 11.4, Favors – OKLAHOMA STATE
(227) SAN JOSE STATE at (228) AIR FORCE
Actual Line: AIR FORCE: -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AIR FORCE: -1.2
Difference: 11.3, Favors – SAN JOSE STATE
(203) STANFORD at (204) VIRGINIA TECH
Actual Line: VIRGINIA TECH: -15.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VIRGINIA TECH: -4.7
Difference: 10.8, Favors – STANFORD
(221) FRESNO STATE at (222) TEXAS STATE
Actual Line: TEXAS STATE: -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS STATE: -20.6
Difference: 10.6, Favors – TEXAS STATE
(207) USC at (208) INDIANA
Actual Line: INDIANA: -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: INDIANA: -17.7
Difference: 10.2, Favors – INDIANA
(155) GEORGIA TECH at (156) CLEMSON
Actual Line: CLEMSON: -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CLEMSON: -3.5
Difference: 10, Favors – GEORGIA TECH
(127) AUBURN at (128) MISSISSIPPI STATE
Actual Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE: +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE: -7.4
Difference: 9.9, Favors – MISSISSIPPI STATE
(151) LOUISVILLE at (152) NORTH CAROLINA
Actual Line: NORTH CAROLINA: +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTH CAROLINA: +13.3
Difference: 9.8, Favors – LOUISVILLE
(131) KANSAS at (132) WEST VIRGINIA
Actual Line: WEST VIRGINIA: -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WEST VIRGINIA: +6
Difference: 9, Favors – KANSAS
(139) MINNESOTA at (140) PENN STATE
Actual Line: PENN STATE: -9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PENN STATE: -17.8
Difference: 8.3, Favors – PENN STATE
(173) TULANE at (174) RICE
Actual Line: RICE: -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: RICE: -10.3
Difference: 7.8, Favors – RICE
(109) BUFFALO at (110) BALL STATE
Actual Line: BALL STATE: +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BALL STATE: -5.3
Difference: 7.8, Favors – BALL STATE
(129) JAMES MADISON at (130) CONNECTICUT
Actual Line: CONNECTICUT: +4
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CONNECTICUT: -3.6
Difference: 7.6, Favors – CONNECTICUT
(177) UTAH at (178) ARIZONA
Actual Line: ARIZONA: +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA: -4.9
Difference: 7.4, Favors – ARIZONA
(137) UAB at (138) TEMPLE
Actual Line: TEMPLE: -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEMPLE: -9.7
Difference: 7.2, Favors – TEMPLE
(141) ALABAMA at (142) VANDERBILT
Actual Line: VANDERBILT: +15.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VANDERBILT: +22.6
Difference: 7.1, Favors – ALABAMA
(161) PURDUE at (162) IOWA
Actual Line: IOWA: -16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA: -23.4
Difference: 6.9, Favors – IOWA
(217) JACKSONVILLE STATE at (218) WESTERN KENTUCKY
Actual Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY: +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY: +14.2
Difference: 6.7, Favors – JACKSONVILLE STATE
(211) MISSOURI at (212) GEORGIA
Actual Line: GEORGIA: -15.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA: -22.2
Difference: 6.7, Favors – GEORGIA
(209) TENNESSEE at (210) TEXAS A&M
Actual Line: TEXAS A&M: +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS A&M: +9
Difference: 6.5, Favors – TENNESSEE
(181) BAYLOR at (182) BYU
Actual Line: BYU: -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BYU: -14
Difference: 6.5, Favors – BYU
(123) HOUSTON at (124) COLORADO
Actual Line: COLORADO: +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: COLORADO: +3.7
Difference: 6.3, Favors – COLORADO
(147) APPALACHIAN STATE at (148) MARSHALL
Actual Line: MARSHALL: +1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARSHALL: +7.8
Difference: 6.3, Favors – APPALACHIAN STATE
(153) TROY at (154) SOUTH ALABAMA
Actual Line: SOUTH ALABAMA: -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH ALABAMA: +3.1
Difference: 6.1, Favors – TROY
(125) CINCINNATI at (126) IOWA STATE
Actual Line: IOWA STATE: -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA STATE: +2.9
Difference: 5.9, Favors – CINCINNATI
(197) KANSAS STATE at (198) TCU
Actual Line: TCU: -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TCU: -15.8
Difference: 5.8, Favors – TCU
(179) KENNESAW STATE at (180) SAM HOUSTON STATE
Actual Line: SAM HOUSTON STATE: +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAM HOUSTON STATE: +1.7
Difference: 5.8, Favors – SAM HOUSTON STATE
(233) COLORADO STATE at (234) WASHINGTON STATE
Actual Line: WASHINGTON STATE: -9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON STATE: -3.7
Difference: 5.8, Favors – COLORADO STATE
(231) UTAH STATE at (232) SAN DIEGO STATE
Actual Line: SAN DIEGO STATE: +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN DIEGO STATE: +8
Difference: 5.5, Favors – UTAH STATE
(115) MEMPHIS at (116) SOUTH FLORIDA
Actual Line: SOUTH FLORIDA: +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH FLORIDA: +9
Difference: 5.5, Favors – MEMPHIS
(219) BOSTON COLLEGE at (220) NOTRE DAME
Actual Line: NOTRE DAME: -29.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NOTRE DAME: -24.2
Difference: 5.3, Favors – BOSTON COLLEGE
(169) NORTH TEXAS at (170) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
Actual Line: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO: +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO: +7.7
Difference: 5.2, Favors – NORTH TEXAS
(121) ILLINOIS at (122) UCLA
Actual Line: UCLA: -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UCLA: -15.1
Difference: 5.1, Favors – UCLA
(101) KENT STATE at (102) BOWLING GREEN
Actual Line: BOWLING GREEN: -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOWLING GREEN: +0.1
Difference: 4.6, Favors – KENT STATE
(149) EAST CAROLINA at (150) CHARLOTTE
Actual Line: CHARLOTTE: +11.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CHARLOTTE: +6.9
Difference: 4.6, Favors – CHARLOTTE
(133) NORTHWESTERN at (134) OHIO STATE
Actual Line: OHIO STATE: -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OHIO STATE: -17
Difference: 4.5, Favors – OHIO STATE
(157) WAKE FOREST at (158) SMU
Actual Line: SMU: +1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SMU: +5.9
Difference: 4.4, Favors – WAKE FOREST
(105) OHIO U at (106) MIAMI OHIO
Actual Line: MIAMI OHIO: +1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIAMI OHIO: -2
Difference: 3.5, Favors – MIAMI OHIO
(187) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at (188) DELAWARE
Actual Line: DELAWARE: -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: DELAWARE: -2
Difference: 3.5, Favors – FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
(143) DUKE at (144) MIAMI FL
Actual Line: MIAMI FL: -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIAMI FL: -16.9
Difference: 3.4, Favors – MIAMI FL
(235) NORTH DAKOTA STATE at (236) HAWAII
Actual Line: HAWAII: +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: HAWAII: +9.8
Difference: 3.3, Favors – NORTH DAKOTA STATE
(117) LOUISIANA at (118) LOUISIANA-MONROE
Actual Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE: +10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE: +13.8
Difference: 3.3, Favors – LOUISIANA
(145) GEORGIA SOUTHERN at (146) GEORGIA STATE
Actual Line: GEORGIA STATE: +5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA STATE: +2.2
Difference: 3.3, Favors – GEORGIA STATE
(175) WYOMING at (176) UTEP
Actual Line: UTEP: +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTEP: +5
Difference: 2.5, Favors – UTEP
(165) NEBRASKA at (166) RUTGERS
Actual Line: RUTGERS: +13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: RUTGERS: +16
Difference: 2.5, Favors – NEBRASKA
(191) CALIFORNIA at (192) VIRGINIA
Actual Line: VIRGINIA: -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VIRGINIA: -7.5
Difference: 2.5, Favors – CALIFORNIA
(213) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at (214) LIBERTY
Actual Line: LIBERTY: -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LIBERTY: -22.8
Difference: 2.3, Favors – LIBERTY
(103) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (104) AKRON
Actual Line: AKRON: +15.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AKRON: +13.3
Difference: 2.2, Favors – AKRON
(183) NEW MEXICO STATE at (184) MISSOURI STATE
Actual Line: MISSOURI STATE: -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MISSOURI STATE: +0.5
Difference: 2, Favors – NEW MEXICO STATE
(135) WISCONSIN at (136) MARYLAND
Actual Line: MARYLAND: +8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARYLAND: +10.4
Difference: 1.9, Favors – WISCONSIN
(159) SYRACUSE at (160) NC STATE
Actual Line: NC STATE: +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NC STATE: +1.2
Difference: 1.8, Favors – NC STATE
(107) MASSACHUSETTS at (108) TOLEDO
Actual Line: TOLEDO: -14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TOLEDO: -16.2
Difference: 1.7, Favors – TOLEDO
(189) SOUTHERN MISS at (190) LOUISIANA TECH
Actual Line: LOUISIANA TECH: -17.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA TECH: -16
Difference: 1.5, Favors – SOUTHERN MISS
(167) ARKANSAS STATE at (168) COASTAL CAROLINA
Actual Line: COASTAL CAROLINA: -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: COASTAL CAROLINA: -3
Difference: 1.5, Favors – COASTAL CAROLINA
(225) FLORIDA at (226) KENTUCKY
Actual Line: KENTUCKY: -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KENTUCKY: -2.2
Difference: 1.3, Favors – FLORIDA
(119) FLORIDA STATE at (120) PITTSBURGH
Actual Line: PITTSBURGH: -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PITTSBURGH: -2.4
Difference: 1.1, Favors – FLORIDA STATE
(201) OLE MISS at (202) OKLAHOMA
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA: +1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA: +2.5
Difference: 1, Favors – OLE MISS
(185) MICHIGAN at (186) OREGON
Actual Line: OREGON: -11.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON: -10.5
Difference: 1, Favors – MICHIGAN
(163) WASHINGTON at (164) MICHIGAN STATE
Actual Line: MICHIGAN STATE: +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN STATE: +3.7
Difference: 0.7, Favors – WASHINGTON
(193) TEXAS at (194) LSU
Actual Line: LSU: -4
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LSU: -4.7
Difference: 0.7, Favors – LSU
(111) SACRAMENTO STATE at (112) CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Actual Line: CENTRAL MICHIGAN: -18.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CENTRAL MICHIGAN: -18
Difference: 0.5, Favors – SACRAMENTO STATE
(229) UNLV at (230) NEW MEXICO
Actual Line: NEW MEXICO: -14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEW MEXICO: -14.5
Difference: 0.5, Favors – NEW MEXICO
(199) ARIZONA STATE at (200) UCF
Actual Line: UCF: -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UCF: -3.1
Difference: 0.4, Favors – ARIZONA STATE
(215) NEVADA at (216) NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Actual Line: NORTHERN ILLINOIS: +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTHERN ILLINOIS: +7.1
Difference: 0.1, Favors – NEVADA
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