Week 1 College Football Betting Trends:
The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* HUGE FAVORITES (-37.5 points or more) have been almost automatic in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS (93.8%)!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PENN STATE (-44.5 vs Nevada), GEORGIA (-39.5 vs Marshall)
* When two AP ranked teams play in a non-neutral setting and the better-ranked team is a HOME single-digit favorite/underdog, these teams have gone 59-19 SU and 52-23-3 ATS (69.3%) since ’17.
System Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-3.5 vs LSU)
* Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents involving home underdogs in Weeks 0/1 have been explosive, particularly when not expected to be. In fact, since ’13, when totals on these games involving home dogs (or pick ’ems) are 64 or less, the result has been 23 Overs, 9 Unders (71.9%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): Boise State-South Florida (o/u at 63.5), Wyoming-Akron (o/u at 48.5), UNLV-Sam Houston State (o/u at 62.5), Temple-UMass (o/u at 47.5), GA Southern-Fresno St (o/u at 51.5)
* Teams coming off an FBS loss in game 1 and favored big (>=24 points) over an FCS team in game 2 have gone just 43-70-2 ATS (38.1%) since 2012, including 1-6-1 ATS in 2024.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS STATE (-25.5 vs N Dakota)
* TENNESSEE is 16-4 (80%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-14 vs Syracuse)
*Over the total is 8-2-1 in the last 11 of CAL-OSU series, including 5-1 in the last six in Corvallis
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): California-Oregon St (o/u at 49.5)
*CHECK OUT STABILITY SCORE MISMATCHES BELOW*
College Football Stability Score Plays for Week 1
Hopefully by now, you’re already familiar with the methodology I’ve used for the last 13 years or so regarding college football Stability Scores heading into the start of each season. I know Bill Adee has been effusive in sharing its details in the VSiN Newsletter for the last few years around this time. If you’re not, in a nutshell, what these scores are is a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability as compared to how they left us in the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies I employ every year to find value early. The thought behind it is that teams that are in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded.
Steve keeps a handy chart on the Stability Scores of each FBS team and publishes them weekly for Week 0-3. He has found that a Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum on which he will consider a play for this thought process. Here are this week’s qualifying plays. (There is a separate article on VSiN that goes in-depth about these plays and scores.
Friday, August 29, 2025
(157) CENTRAL MICHIGAN at (158) SAN JOSE STATE (-11.5)
Stability Advantage: SAN JOSE STATE by 10
(171) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (172) MICHIGAN STATE (-20.5)
Stability Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE by 10
Saturday, August 30, 2025
(177) NEW MEXICO at (178) MICHIGAN (-34.5)
Stability Advantage: MICHIGAN by 14
(183) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (184) MARYLAND (-14.5)
Stability Advantage: MARYLAND by 9
(185) COASTAL CAROLINA at (186) VIRGINIA (-12.5)
Stability Advantage: VIRGINIA by 8
(189) MARSHALL at (190) GEORGIA (-39.5)
Stability Advantage: GEORGIA by 12
(193) UTEP (+6) at (194) UTAH ST
Stability Advantage: UTEP by 11
(199) GEORGIA SOUTHERN at (200) FRESNO STATE
Stability Advantage: GEORGIA SOUTHERN by 16
(205) MISSISSIPPI STATE (-13.5) at (206) SOUTHERN MISS
Stability Advantage: MISSISSIPPI STATE by 15
(215) RICE at (216) LA LAFAYETTE (-13.5)
Stability Advantage: LA LAFAYETTE by 10
Monday, September 1, 2025
(233) TCU (-3.5) at (234) NORTH CAROLINA
Stability Advantage: TCU by 15
Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the ’25 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): RUTGERS, NEBRASKA, WAKE FOREST, MICHIGAN STATE, GEORGIA TECH, SAM HOUSTON STATE, SAN JOSE STATE, PURDUE, INDIANA, GEORGIA, ALABAMA, VIRGINIA, USC, ARIZONA, OREGON STATE, UTAH, NOTRE DAME
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, and in 2024 it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WAKE FOREST, INDIANA, GEORGIA, TEXAS A&M, ARIZONA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in ’24, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOISE STATE, WYOMING, GEORGIA TECH, TEMPLE, ALABAMA, UTAH, NOTRE DAME, TCU
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): EAST CAROLINA, BUFFALO, TEXAS, NORTHWESTERN, RICE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 seasons record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOISE STATE, RUTGERS, NC STATE, UCF, WYOMING, MINNESOTA, NEBRASKA, WISCONSIN, APPALACHIAN STATE, WAKE FOREST, MICHIGAN STATE, AUBURN, GEORGIA TECH, UNLV, SAN JOSE STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PENN STATE, GEORGIA, MICHIGAN, USC
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the ’22 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2,364 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOISE STATE-SOUTH FLORIDA, UTEP-UTAH STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BUFFALO-MINNESOTA,
MIAMI (OH)-WISCONSIN, NORTHWESTERN-TULANE
CFB Opening Week(s) Concepts to Consider
CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #1: Huge favorites (-37.5 points or more) have been almost automatic in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS (93.8%)!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PENN STATE (-44.5 vs Nevada), GEORGIA (-39.5 vs Marshall)
*WATCH FOR USC (-35.5) vs Missouri State, OLE MISS (-35.5) vs Georgia State, MICHIGAN (-34.5) vs New Mexico
CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #2: Home field advantage means a lot in early season games between unfamiliar Power 4 non-conference foes. The hosts in these matchups have gone 28-16 SU and 25-15-4 ATS (62.5%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BAYLOR (+2.5 vs Auburn), COLORADO (+4.5 vs GA Tech), OHIO STATE (-2.5 vs Texas), FLORIDA STATE (+13.5 vs Alabama), UCLA (+6 vs Utah), CLEMSON (-3.5 vs LSU), NORTH CAROLINA (+3.5 vs TCU)
CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #3: Small favorites win the early neutral field showdowns between non-conference Power 4 foes, as those laying less than a touchdown are on a 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) run since ’13.
System Match (PLAY): NONE
*WATCH FOR NEBRASKA (-7) vs Cincinnati, SOUTH CAROLINA (-7.5) vs Virginia Tech
CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #4: There is a massive swing in expectation to win and/or cover when Group of 5 teams square off with Power 5 teams in Weeks 0/1 over the last decade. As hosts, the Group of 5 teams have gone 32-19 ATS (62%), including Hawaii’s covers last week vs. Stanford and last year in Week 1 vs. UCLA. On the road or in neutral games, these Group of 5 teams are 89-123 ATS (42%) in that same time span. This includes Fresno State’s loss at Kansas last week. Bet accordingly based upon that 20% swing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOME TEAMS
TULANE (-5.5 vs NW), SOUTHERN MISS (+13.5 vs Miss State), OREGON STATE (-1.5 vs Cal)
System Matches (FADE ALL): ROAD/NEUTRAL TEAMS
OHIO, BUFFALO, MIAMI (OH), KENNESAW STATE, WESTERN MICHIGAN, BALL STATE, NEVADA, OLD DOMINION, NEW MEXICO, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, COASTAL CAROLINA, MARSHALL, TOLEDO, COLORADO STATE, HAWAII, GEORGIA STATE, UTSA, MISSOURI STATE
CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #5: Favorites have been far more reliable at home and in neutral games in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013 (197-172 ATS, 53.4%), than on the road (45-66-1 ATS, 40.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOISE STATE (-5.5 at USF), WYOMING (-7 at Akron), AUBURN (-2.5 at Baylor), GEORGIA TECH (-4.5 at Colorado), UNLV (-10.5 at Sam Houston State), MISSISSIPPI STATE (-13.5 at USM), TEMPLE (-2.5 at UMass), ALABAMA (-13.5 at Fla St), GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-2.5 at Fresno State), UTAH (-6 at UCLA), NOTRE DAME (-2.5 at Miami (FL)), TCU (-3.5 at UNC)
CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #6: Oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-totaled games in Weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48 or less and a favorite of 4 points or more, Under the total is 37-16 (69.8%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Buffalo-Minnesota (o/u at 44.5), Miami (OH)-Wisconsin (o/u at 39.5), Northwestern-Tulane (o/u at 46.5), Rice-Louisiana (o/u at 47.5)
CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #7: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents involving home underdogs in Weeks 0/1 have been explosive, particularly when not expected to be. In fact, since ’13, when totals on these games involving home dogs (or pick em’s) are 64 or less, the result has been 23 Overs, 9 Unders (71.9%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): Boise State-South Florida (o/u at 63.5), Wyoming-Akron (o/u at 48.5), UNLV-Sam Houston State (o/u at 62.5), Temple-UMass (o/u at 47.5), Georgia Southern-Fresno State (o/u at 51.5)
CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #8: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents featuring a home favorite have been unexpectedly lower scoring, producing 41 Unders, 25 Overs (62.1%) since ’13.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Central Michigan-San Jose State (o/u at 50.5), UTEP-Utah State (o/u at 60.5), Eastern Michigan-Texas State (o/u at 58.5), Rice-Louisiana Lafayette (o/u at 47.5)
College Football Game 2 Reactionary Systems
These systems take into account traits about a team’s season opener and how they affect their second game.
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #1- FCS letdown: Teams that faced a FBS foe in game 1 and are favored by 30 points or more versus a FCS opponent for game 2 have gone just 86-114-6 ATS (43%) since 2012. This includes a 13-21-1 ATS mark since 2023.
System Match (FADE): *WATCH FOR KANSAS vs Wagner
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #2 – FCS game 2 foes not an easy rebound: Teams coming off a FBS loss in game 1 and favored big (>=24 points) over a FCS team in game 2 have gone just 43-70-2 ATS (38.1%) since 2012, including 1-6-1 ATS in 2024.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS STATE (-25.5 vs North Dakota)
CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #4 – Home cooking not enough to revive struggling offense: Teams that scored 10 points or fewer in their season-opening losses of 17 points or more have responded with just a 44-60-2 ATS (42.3%) record when playing at home in game #2 over the last decade-plus.
System Match (FADE): FRESNO STATE (+2.5 vs Georgia Southern)
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
* OREGON STATE is 17-30 SU but 28-18 ATS (60.9%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): OREGON STATE (-1.5 vs CAL)
College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings
The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll.
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 196-94 SU and 169-113-8 ATS (59.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE (-2.5 vs TEX), CLEMSON (-3.5 vs LSU), MIAMI (FL) (+2.5 vs Notre Dame)
Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 115-22 SU and 85-48-4 ATS (63.9%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-3.5 vs LSU)
Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 59-19 SU and 52-23-3 ATS (69.3%) since ’17.
System Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-3.5 vs LSU)
This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. FRESNO STATE +2.5 (+5.1)
2. HAWAII +17.5 (+5.0)
3. JACKSONVILLE STATE +20.5 (+4.6)
4. OHIO +15.5 (+3.4)
5. UTSA +24.5 (+3.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOISE STATE -5.5 (+2.4)
1. LA LAFAYETTE -11.5 (+2.4)
3. TULANE -5.5 (+2.2)
4. SOUTH CAROLINA -7.5 (+1.8)
4. NOTRE DAME -2.5 (+1.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HAWAII +17.5 (+6.5)
2. BALL STATE +18.5 (+4.7)
2. COLORADO STATE +21.5 (+4.7)
4. TOLEDO +9.5 (+4.4)
5. NORTH CAROLINA +3.5 (+3.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOISE STATE -5.5 (+6.6)
2. NEVADA +44.5 (+5.3)
3. TEMPLE -2.5 (+4.5)
4. INDIANA -23.5 (+3.6)
5. OLE MISS -35.5 (+3.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI (OH)-WISCONSIN OVER 39.5 (+5.0)
2. BUFFALO-MINNESOTA OVER 44.5 (+3.4)
3. BOISE STATE-S FLORIDA OVER 63.5 (+2.7)
4. NORTHWESTERN-TULANE OVER 46.5 (+2.5)
5. GEORGIA STATE-OLE MISS OVER 60.5 (+2.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UNLV-SAM HOUSTON STATE UNDER 62.5 (-3.3)
2. AUBURN-BAYLOR UNDER 57.5 (-2.9)
3. SOUTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA TECH UNDER 52.5 (-2.8)
4. UTEP-UTAH STATE UNDER 60.5 (-2.4)
5. SYRACUSE-TENNESSEE UNDER 51.5 (-1.7)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. FRESNO STATE +2.5 (+7.2)
2. HAWAII +17.5 (+5.0)
3. OHIO +15.5 (+3.6)
4. COLORADO STATE +21.5 (+2.3)
5. CINCINNATI +7 (+1.9)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOISE STATE -5.5 (+4.3)
2. MICHIGAN -34.5 (+2.1)
2. MARYLAND -14.5 (+2.1)
4. TEMPLE -2.5 (+2.0)
5. TULANE -5.5 (+1.9)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. RICE-LA LAFAYETTE OVER 47.5 (+4.5)
2. JACKSONVILLE STATE-UCF OVER 52.5 (+4.4)
3. MIAMI (OH)-WISCONSIN OVER 39.5 (+3.5)
4. LSU-CLEMSON OVER 57.5 (+3.2)
5. NEW MEXICO-MICHIGAN OVER 49.5 (+3.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. EAST CAROLINA-NC STATE UNDER 61.5 (-3.1)
2. UNLV-SAM HOUSTON STATE UNDER 62.5 (-2.8)
3. MARSHALL-GEORGIA UNDER 55.5 (-2.7)
4. UTEP-UTAH STATE UNDER 60.5 (-2.3)
5. NEBRASKA-CINCINNATI UNDER 53.5 (-2.1)
Top Team Situational College Football Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* AIR FORCE is 30-19 (61.2%) ATS in non-conference games since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY): AIR FORCE (vs Bucknell)
* APPALACHIAN STATE is 6-22 ATS (21.4%) in the last 28 games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): APPALACHIAN STATE (-6.5 at Charlotte)
* AKRON is 15-30-1 (33.3%) ATS at home since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): AKRON (+6.5 vs Wyoming)
* BALL STATE is 34-22-1 (60.7%) Under the total over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BALL STATE-PURDUE (o/u at 50.5)
* BOWLING GREEN is 7-14 (33.3%) ATS in non-conference games since ’19
Trend Match (FADE): BOWLING GREEN (-14.5 vs Lafayette)
* CALIFORNIA is 27-15 (64.3%) ATS as an underdog since ’18
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+1.5 at Oregon St)
* CINCINNATI is 4-14 ATS (22.2%) as an underdog in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+7 vs Nebraska)
* DUKE is 32-15 (68.1%) ATS in non-conference games since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY): DUKE (-34.5 vs Elon)
* EASTERN MICHIGAN is 39-18 (68.4%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+13.5 at Texas State)
* FLORIDA is 8-16-1 (33.3%) ATS in non-conference games in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA (vs LIU)
* FRESNO ST is 33-19-1 (63.5%) Under the total since ’21
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GEORGIA SOUTHERN-FRESNO STATE (o/u at 51.5)
* GEORGIA STATE is 21-9-1 (70%) ATS in the last 31 road/neutral games
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+35.5 at Ole Miss)
* GEORGIA TECH is 8-21-1 ATS (27.6%) as a favorite since ‘18
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA TECH (-4 at Colorado)
* JAMES MADISON is 24-13 (64.9%) ATS as favorite since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (vs Weber State)
* KANSAS is 5-16 (23.8%) ATS as favorite since ’18
* KANSAS is 37-22-1 (62.7%) Over the total since ‘19
Trends Match: FADE KANSAS (vs Wagner), also PLAY OVER the total
* KANSAS STATE is 44-31-2 (58.7%) ATS since ‘19
* KANSAS STATE is 11-4 ATS (73.3%) following up a SU loss in the last four seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (vs N Dakota)
* KENTUCKY is 20-6 (76.9) ATS in non-conference games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (-9.5 vs Toledo)
* LOUISIANA TECH is 36-23-1 (61%) Over the total since ‘19
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SELA-LA TECH
* LOUISVILLE is 7-11 (38.9%) ATS in non-conference games since ’21
Trend Match (FADE): LOUISVILLE (vs EKU)
* LSU is 23-14 (62.1%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’19
* LSU is 25-15 (62.5%) Over the total since ‘22
Trends Match: LSU (+3.5 at Clemson), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 57.5)
* MARYLAND is 17-7 (70.8%) ATS in the last 24 Non-Conference games
Trend Match (PLAY): MARYLAND (-14.5 vs FAU)
* MIAMI (OH) is on a 35-21-1 (62.5%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIAMI (OH)-WISCONSIN (o/u at 39.5)
* NEW MEXICO is 18-6 (75%) Over the total in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NEW MEXICO-MICHIGAN (o/u at 49.5)
* NEW MEXICO STATE is 31-21 (59.6%) ATS in the last four seasons (including 11-5 ATS as a favorite)
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO STATE (vs Bryant)
* NC STATE is 3-12 ATS (20%) in non-conference games in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NC STATE (-14 vs ECU)
* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 5-20-2 (20%) ATS in the last 27 Home games
Trend Match (FADE): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (vs Holy Cross)
* NOTRE DAME is 30-9 ATS (76.9%) in road/neutral games in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-2.5 at Miami (FL))
* OLE MISS is 16-5 ATS (76.2%) in non-Ccnference games in five seasons under head coach Lane Kiffin
Trend Match (PLAY): OLE MISS (-35.5 vs Georgia State)
* OREGON STATE is 27-10 (73%) ATS in home games over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OREGON STATE (-1.5 vs CAL)
* PENN STATE is 30-13 ATS (69.7%) as a favorite over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-44.5 vs Nevada)
* PITTSBURGH is 39-23 (62.9%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DUQUESNE-PITTSBURGH
* PURDUE is 4-15 ATS (21.1%) at home over the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PURDUE (-18.5 vs Ball State)
* RUTGERS has gone 14-3 (82.4%) ATS in the last 17 non-conference games
Trend Match (PLAY): RUTGERS (-15.5 vs Ohio)
* SAM HOUSTON STATE is 18-6 (75%) ATS as an underdog since ’17
Trend Match (PLAY): SAM HOUSTON STATE (+10 vs UNLV)
* SAN DIEGO STATE is 44-26 (62.9%) Under the total since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STONY BROOK-SAN DIEGO STATE (o/u at 53.5)
* SOUTH CAROLINA is 14-7 (66.7%) ATS as a favorite in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-7.5 vs Virginia Tech)
* TEMPLE is 5-17 (22.7%) ATS in road games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEMPLE (-2.5 at UMass)
* TENNESSEE is 16-4 (80%) ATS in non-conference games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-14 vs Syracuse)
* TULANE is 48-24 (66.7%) ATS as a favorite since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (-5.5 vs Northwestern)
* UAB is 21-8 (72.4%) ATS at home since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): UAB (vs Alabama State)
* UCLA is 9-19 (32.1%) ATS in non-conference games since ’15
Trend Match (FADE): UCLA (+6 vs Utah)
* UNLV is 24-7 (77.4%) ATS in non-conference games since ’17
* UNLV is on an 18-8 (69.2%) ATS run following a SU win
Trends Match (PLAY): UNLV (-10 at Sam Houston State)
* USC is 28-12 ATS (70%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MISSOURI STATE-USC (o/u at 59.5)
* UTEP is 9-24 ATS (27.3%) in non-conference games since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): UTEP (+6 at Utah State)
* VIRGINIA TECH is 6-19 ATS (24%) in non-conference games since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): VIRGINIA TECH (+7.5 vs South Carolina)
* WESTERN KENTUCKY is 14-24 (36.8%) ATS as a favorite since ’19
Trend Match (FADE): WESTERN KENTUCKY (vs N Alabama)
* WEST VIRGINIA has gone 18-11 ATS (62.1%) at home in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (vs Robert Morris)
Top Head-to-Head Series College Football Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
Week 1
Thursday, August 28
(141) EAST CAROLINA at (142) NC STATE
*Home teams are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven non-neutral head-to-head meetings between ECU and NC STATE
Trend Match (PLAY): NC STATE (-14 vs ECU)
Friday, August 29
(171) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (172) MICHIGAN STATE
*Home teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the WMU-MSU in-state head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN STATE (-20.5 vs WMU)
Saturday, August 30
(181) CALIFORNIA at (182) OREGON STATE
*Over the total is 8-2-1 in the last 11 of CAL-OSU series, including 5-1 in the last six in Corvallis
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CAL-OSU (o/u at 49.5)
(201) UTAH at (202) UCLA
*UTAH is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings with former Pac-12 foe UCLA, including 4-1 ATS in the last five road trips to Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (-6 at UCLA) (205) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (206) SOUTHERN MISS
*Home teams have won all four ATS in head-to-head meetings between MSU-USM
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTHERN MISS (+13.5 vs MSU)
