The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 10. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

AJ’s Angles

* College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 108-20 SU and 83-40-5 ATS (67.5%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): LOUISIANA TECH (-16.5 vs. Sam Houston State)

* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than three points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play-against team, 29-49 ATS (37.2%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): COASTAL CAROLINA (+5.5 vs. Marshall)

* ILLINOIS is on a 3-15 ATS (16.7%) skid as a conference home favorite
Trend Match (FADE): ILLINOIS (-12.5 vs. Rutgers)

CFB Ranked Team System #16: Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 91-73 SU and 99-63-2 ATS (61.1%) dating back to November of 2015.
System Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (+12.5 at Ole Miss)

* KANSAS STATE is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS (83.3%) in the last 13 games against Texas Tech
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (+7 vs. Texas Tech)

* SOUTH ALABAMA is 18-38 (32.1%) ATS coming off a SU win since ’14
Trend Match (FADE): SOUTH ALABAMA (-4 vs. Louisiana)

* FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL is 15-30 (33.3%) in conference games over the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+3.5 at Missouri State)

#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen Bettors Ratings: NOTRE DAME -28.5 at Boston College (projections have line at ND -35)

College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll. 

CFB Ranked Team System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 211-106 SU and 184-124-9 ATS (59.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-1.5 vs. Vanderbilt), TENNESSEE (-3 vs. Oklahoma), UTAH (-9.5 vs. Cincinnati)

Digging deeper into that data, when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 122-28 SU and 91-55-4 ATS (62.3%).
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-3 vs. Oklahoma)

Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 63-25 SU and 56-29-3 ATS (65.9%) since ’17.
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-3 vs. Oklahoma)

CFB Ranked Team System #4: In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 42-19 (68.9%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the Under record jumps to 24-8 (75%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): *WATCH FOR CINCINNATI-UTAH (spread Utah -9.5, total 56.5)*

CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 337-26 SU but just 158-201-4 ATS (44%) versus unranked conference opponents since October ’15.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE (-20.5 vs. Penn State), MICHIGAN (-21 vs. Purdue)

CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an upset win over a top-15 ranked team are 113-84 SU but just 82-114-1 ATS (41.8%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November ’16.
System Match (FADE): OLE MISS (-12.5 vs. South Carolina)

CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top-10-ranked team are just 132-139 SU and 119-150-2 ATS (44.2%) in the next game since October of ’16.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SOUTH CAROLINA (+12.5 at Ole Miss), OKLAHOMA (+3 at Tennessee)

CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of seven points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 212-51 SU and 150-111-2 ATS (57.5%) surge when favored in the next game since October of ’15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-1.5 vs. Vanderbilt), VIRGINIA (-4 at California)

CFB Ranked Team System #12: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 58-22 SU and 51-28-1 ATS (64.6%) in the next game since November of 2021.
System Match (PLAY): USC (-6.5 at Nebraska)

CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 61-82 SU and 61-79-3 ATS (43.4%) since September ‘19. These teams are also 68-32 Under the total (68%) in these next games dating back to September of 2021.
System Match (FADE): VANDERBILT (+1.5 at Texas)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): VANDERBILT-TEXAS (o/u at 44.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #16: Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 91-73 SU and 99-63-2 ATS (61.1%) dating back to November of ’15.
System Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (+12.5 at Ole Miss)

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than three points have struggled lately, 83-112 ATS (42.6%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PENN STATE (+20.5 at Ohio State), NORTH CAROLINA (+2.5 at Syracuse)

* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than seven points after not having played in 14 days are on a 148-114 ATS (56.5%) surge since 2010.
System Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (+20.5 at Ohio State)

* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than three points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play-against team, 29-49 ATS (37.2%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): COASTAL CAROLINA (+5.5 vs. Marshall)

* Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 48-74 ATS (39.3%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+4.5 vs. Arizona)

* Big Ten home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone Under the total at a 38-17 (69.1%) rate since 2017
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PENN STATE-OHIO STATE (spread at OSU -20.5, total at 43.5), PURDUE-MICHIGAN (spread at UM -21, total at 50.5)

* Big 12 home favorites of 21 points or more have seen totals go Over at a 24-11 (68.6%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKLAHOMA STATE-KANSAS (spread at KU -24.5, total at 57.5)

* Over the total is 20-7 (74.1%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021
System Match (PLAY OVER): VANDERBILT-TEXAS (spread at UT -1.5, total at 44.5)

* Under the total is 67-46-1 (59.3%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NORTH CAROLINA-SYRACUSE (spread at Cuse -2.5, total at 45.5), DUKE-CLEMSON (spread at Clemson -3.5, total at 55.5)

* Mountain West home favorites of a touchdown or less (-0.5 to -7) with a total of >=60.5 have seen the total go Under at a 17-6 (73.9%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NEW MEXICO-UNLV (spread at UNLV -4.5, total at 61.5)

* Sun Belt road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 64-27 SU and 55-36 (60.4%) ATS since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): JAMES MADISON (-7 at Texas State), MARSHALL (-5.5 at Coastal Carolina)

* Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 51-26-1 (66.2%) rate since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): JAMES MADISON-TEXAS STATE (o/u at 55.5), MARSHALL-COASTAL CAROLINA (o/u at 54.5)

* Sun Belt small home favorites/pick-’ems in the PK to -5.5 line range and totals within the 52.5-65 range have had these totals go Under at a 42-17 (71.2%) rate since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LOUISIANA-SOUTH ALABAMA (spread at USA -4, total at 53.5)

* Under the total is 54-30-1 (64.3%) in Conference USA expected tight matchups (-3 to +2.5 line range) since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DELAWARE-LIBERTY (spread at Liberty -3, total at 51.5)

Negative FADE trends:

• LOUISIANA TECH has lost nine of its last 10 games ATS against conference foes when coming off an outright home loss
Trend Match (FADE): LOUISIANA TECH (-16.5 vs.Sam Houston State)

• USC has lost 13 of its last 18 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trend Match (FADE): USC (-6.5 at Nebraska)

• ILLINOIS is on a 3-15 ATS skid as a conference home favorite
Trend Match (FADE): ILLINOIS (-12.5 vs. Rutgers)

• STANFORD is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 conference games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): STANFORD (+14.5 vs. Pittsburgh)

• MEMPHIS is on an 8-20 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win
Trend Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-14 at Rice)

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO has won 12 of its last 13 conference games ATS when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): UTSA (+4 vs. Tulane)

• TROY is on a 19-4 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (-7 vs. Arkansas State)

• PURDUE has a respectable 13-5 ATS record in its last 18 games as a Big Ten dog of 20+ points
Trend Match (PLAY): PURDUE (+21 at Michigan)

• NAVY is on a 31-9 ATS run in conference games when coming off a home win
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (+6.5 at North Texas)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

* COASTAL CAROLINA is 12-11 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): COASTAL CAROLINA (+5.5 vs. Marshall)

* LOUISIANA is 15-10 SU and 18-7 ATS (72%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISIANA (+4 at South Alabama)

* KENTUCKY is 15-23 SU and 22-16 ATS (57.9%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (+10.5 at Auburn)

Neutral-field underdogs are great in revenge mode
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 49-31 ATS (61.3%).
System Match (PLAY): FLORIDA (+7 vs. Georgia)

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 114-125 ATS (47.7%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON STATE (-3.5 at Oregon State)

Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 108-20 SU and 83-40-5 ATS (67.5%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): LOUISIANA TECH (-16.5 vs. Sam Houston State)

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 227-177 ATS (56.2%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): LOUISIANA TECH (-16.5 vs. Sam Houston State)

Extreme Stat Next-Game CFB Betting Systems

Prolific offensive performances don’t last
FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 31-47 ATS (39.7%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NORTH TEXAS (-6.5 vs. Navy)

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on VSiN.com, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 2:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LOUISIANA TECH, OHIO STATE, BUFFALO, ILLINOIS, IOWA STATE, MIAMI FL, LOUISVILLE, NEW MEXICO, SOUTH ALABAMA, INDIANA, OLD DOMINION, OLE MISS, SAN DIEGO STATE, GEORGIA TECH, WASHINGTON STATE, USC, TROY

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE, ILLINOIS, HOUSTON, SOUTH ALABAMA, MINNESOTA, OLE MISS, TROY

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2024, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JAMES MADISON, JACKSONVILLE STATE, MARSHALL, MEMPHIS, MIAMI FL, LOUISVILLE, NOTRE DAME, INDIANA, PITTSBURGH, TEXAS TECH, ARIZONA, GEORGIA TECH, WASHINGTON STATE, USC

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DUKE, BUFFALO, UAB, NEW MEXICO, NEW MEXICO STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, WAKE FOREST, KENTUCKY, HAWAII

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARMY, VANDERBILT, MISSISSIPPI STATE, WAKE FOREST, CINCINNATI

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 season record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KENNESAW STATE, JAMES MADISON, JACKSONVILLE STATE, MISSOURI STATE, MARSHALL, TULANE, MEMPHIS, SYRACUSE, LOUISIANA TECH

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the 2022 season, where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2364 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NEW MEXICO-UNLV, MISSISSIPPI STATE-ARKANSAS

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): VANDERBILT-TEXAS, KENTUCKY-AUBURN

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in 2024 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PENN STATE-OHIO STATE, BUFFALO-BOWLING GREEN, MICHIGAN STATE-MINNESOTA, CENTRAL MICHIGAN-WESTERN MICHIGAN, WYOMING-SAN DIEGO STATE

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARMY +1.5 (+4.4)
2 (tie). ARIZONA STATE +7 (+4.0)
SMU +12.5 (+4.0)
4. RUTGERS +12.5 (+2.6)
5. TEXAS STATE +7 (+2.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. VIRGINIA -4 (+5.1)
2. WESTERN MICHIGAN -4.5 (+4.3)
3. WESTERN KENTUCKY -9.5 (+4.2)
4. MINNESOTA -3 (+4.1)
5. MARSHALL -5.5 (+3.8)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. RICE +14 (+5.6)
2. WYOMING +10.5 (+3.4)
3. KANSAS STATE +7 (+3.2)
4. NC STATE +5.5 (+3.0)
5. DELAWARE +3 (+2.8)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOTRE DAME -28.5 (+6.5)
2. KANSAS -24.5 (+5.9)
3. INDIANA -21.5 (+4.2)
4. PITTSBURGH -14.5 (+3.5)
5. SYRACUSE -2.5 (+3.4)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MICHIGAN STATE-MINNESOTA OVER 44.5 (+3.1)
2. MIAMI FL-SMU OVER 50.5 (+2.5)
3. CENTRAL MICHIGAN-WESTERN MICHIGAN OVER 40.5 (+2.1)
4. BUFFALO-BOWLING GREEN OVER 43.5 (+2.0)
5. WAKE FOREST-FLORIDA STATE OVER 49.5 (+1.8)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TEXAS TECH-KANSAS STATE UNDER 52.5 (-3.3)
2 (tie). NAVY-NORTH TEXAS UNDER 65.5 (-2.6)
OKLAHOMA STATE-KANSAS UNDER 57.5 (-2.6)
4 (tie). PURDUE-MICHIGAN UNDER 50.5 (-2.1)
SOUTH CAROLINA-OLE MISS UNDER 54.5 (-2.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PENN STATE +20.5 (+10.8)
2. TEXAS STATE +7 (+10.5)
3. OREGON STATE +3.5 (+7.5)
4. UTEP +10.5 (+6.0)
5. ARIZONA STATE +7 (+5.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. FLORIDA STATE -9.5 (+10.8)
2. BAYLOR -4.5 (+8.6)
3. SAN JOSE STATE -2.5 (+6.7)
4. TEXAS -1.5 (+5.7)
5. VIRGINIA -4 (+5.3)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. VANDERBILT-TEXAS OVER 44.5 (+5.5)
2. WAKE FOREST-FLORIDA STATE OVER 49.5 (+4.6)
3. ARMY-AIR FORCE OVER 48.5 (+4.1)
4. TEXAS TECH-KANSAS STATE OVER 52.5 (+3.5)
5. PENN STATE-OHIO STATE OVER 43.5 (+3.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GEORGIA-FLORIDA UNDER 50.5 (-3.6)
2. HAWAII-SAN JOSE STATE UNDER 58.5 (-3.5)
3. WEST VIRGINIA-HOUSTON UNDER 49.5 (-3.2)
4. PURDUE-MICHIGAN UNDER 50.5 (-3.1)
5. OKLAHOMA STATE-KANSAS UNDER 57.5 (-2.4)

Comparing Effective Play-by-Play ratings to this week’s matchups

The following are taken from an article posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, looking at how Steve Makinen comes up with his ratings and any edges in games each weekend. As far as actionable items, here are the top 15 games for this weekend, showing the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences. Track these games to see how they fare, or back them already if you agree with the logic. Starting from Week 4 of 2025, these plays are 48-39-1 ATS (55.2%).

1. (351) RUTGERS at (352) ILLINOIS
Actual Line: ILLINOIS -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ILLINOIS -28.7
Difference: 16.2 – Favors: ILLINOIS

2. (385) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (386) ARKANSAS
Actual Line: ARKANSAS -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS -18.2
Difference: 13.7 – Favors: ARKANSAS

3. (389) OLD DOMINION at (390) LOUISIANA-MONROE
Actual Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE +16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE +27.7
Difference: 11.2 – Favors: OLD DOMINION

4. (393) USC at (394) NEBRASKA
Actual Line: NEBRASKA +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEBRASKA +15.9
Difference: 9.4 – Favors: USC

5. (303) JAMES MADISON at (304) TEXAS STATE
Actual Line: TEXAS STATE +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS STATE -2.1
Difference: 9.1 – Favors: TEXAS STATE

6. (405) HAWAII at (406) SAN JOSE STATE
Actual Line: SAN JOSE STATE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN JOSE STATE -10.7
Difference: 8.2 – Favors: SAN JOSE STATE

7. (327) NOTRE DAME at (328) BOSTON COLLEGE
Actual Line: BOSTON COLLEGE +28.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOSTON COLLEGE +36.1
Difference: 7.6 – Favors: NOTRE DAME

8. (339) PENN STATE at (340) OHIO STATE
Actual Line: OHIO STATE -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OHIO STATE -28.1
Difference: 7.6 – Favors: OHIO STATE

9. (333) INDIANA at (334) MARYLAND
Actual Line: MARYLAND +21.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARYLAND +27.5
Difference: 6 – Favors: INDIANA

10. (349) VANDERBILT at (350) TEXAS
Actual Line: TEXAS -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS +4.2
Difference: 5.7 – Favors: VANDERBILT

11. (305) JACKSONVILLE STATE at (306) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
Actual Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +0.4
Difference: 5.6 – Favors: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

12. (325) OKLAHOMA at (326) TENNESSEE
Actual Line: TENNESSEE -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TENNESSEE -8.6
Difference: 5.6 – Favors: TENNESSEE

13. (377) ARKANSAS STATE at (378) TROY
Actual Line: TROY -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TROY -12.6
Difference: 5.6 – Favors: TROY

14. (369) VIRGINIA at (370) CALIFORNIA
Actual Line: CALIFORNIA +4
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CALIFORNIA +9.4
Difference: 5.4 – Favors: VIRGINIA

15. (335) PURDUE at (336) MICHIGAN
Actual Line: MICHIGAN -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN -15.5
Difference: 5 – Favors: PURDUE

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* AIR FORCE is 32-19 (62.7%) ATS in non-vonference games since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY): AIR FORCE (-1.5 vs. Army)

* ARIZONA is 17-32 (34.7%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-4.5 at Colorado)

* ARIZONA STATE is 29-16-1 (64.4%) ATS as an underdog since ’18
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA STATE (+7 at Iowa State)

* CALIFORNIA is 29-17 (63%) ATS as underdog since ’18
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+4 vs. Virginia)

* CINCINNATI is 6-14 ATS (30%) as an underdog in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+9.5 at Utah)

* CLEMSON is 13-6 (68.4%) ATS in the last 19 following a SU loss
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-3.5 vs. Duke)

* COLORADO is 11-2 ATS (84.6%) following a SU loss in the last two seasons
* COLORADO is 14-5 ATS as a home underdog since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+4.5 vs. Arizona)

* FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL is 15-30 (33.3%) in conference games over the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+3.5 at Missouri State)

* FLORIDA STATE is 11-25 (30.6%) ATS in conference games since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA STATE (-9.5 vs. Wake Forest)

* FRESNO STATE is 36-23-1 (61%) Under the total since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): FRESNO STATE (+17.5 at Boise State)

* GEORGIA is 24-15 (61.5%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA (-7 vs. Florida)

* GEORGIA TECH is 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) as a favorite since ‘18
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA TECH (-5.5 at NC State)

* INDIANA is 14-3 ATS (82.4%) in its last 17 games as a favorite of 20 points or more
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-21.5 at Maryland)

* JAMES MADISON is 28-15 (65.1%) ATS as a favorite since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-7 at Texas State)

* KANSAS is 7-19 (26.9%) ATS as a favorite since ’18
* KANSAS is 41-25-1 (62.1%) Over the total since ‘19
Trends Match: FADE KANSAS (-24.5 vs. Oklahoma State), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 57.5)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 38-28-1 (57.6%) Over the total since ‘19
* LOUISIANA TECH is 13-22 (37.1%) ATS in conference games over the last four seasons
Trends Match: FADE LOUISIANA TECH (-16.5 vs. Sam Houston State), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 49.5)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 33-24 (57.9%) Under the total since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MISSISSIPPI STATE-ARKANSAS (o/u at 67.5)

* NAVY is 16-10 ATS (61.5%) following a SU win in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (+6.5 at North Texas)

* NEBRASKA is 7-16-3 (30.4%) ATS at home in the last 26 games
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (+6.5 vs. USC)

* NEW MEXICO is 21-44 (32.3%) ATS in conference games since ’17
* NEW MEXICO is 22-10 (68.8%) Over the total in the last two seasons
Trends Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (+4.5 at UNLV), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 61.5)

* NEW MEXICO STATE is 34-25 (57.6%) ATS in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO STATE (+9.5 at Western Kentucky)

* NOTRE DAME is 31-10 ATS (75.6%) in road/neutral games in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-28.5 at Boston College)

* OLE MISS is 12-22-2 (35.3%) ATS in conference games since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): OLE MISS (-12.5 vs. South Carolina)

* OREGON STATE is 26-14 (65%) ATS coming off a SU win since ’16
* OREGON STATE is 29-13 (68.3%) ATS in home games over the last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): OREGON STATE (+3.5 vs. Washington State)

* PENN STATE is 11-22 (33.3%) ATS coming off a SU loss since ’15
Trend Match (FADE): PENN STATE (+20.5 at Ohio State)

* PITTSBURGH is 45-25 (64.3%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PITTSBURGH-STANFORD (o/u at 51.5)

* RICE is 12-4 ATS (75%) as a home underdog since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): RICE (+14 vs. Memphis)

* RUTGERS is 27-12 (69.2%) to the Under in road games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): RUTGERS-ILLINOIS (o/u at 62.5)

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 12-24 ATS (33.3%) as a home favorite since 2017
* SAN DIEGO STATE is 48-29 (62.3%) UNDER the total since ’19
Trends Match: FADE SAN DIEGO STATE (-10.5 vs. Wyoming), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)

* SOUTH ALABAMA is 18-38 (32.1%) ATS coming off a SU win since ’14
Trend Match (FADE): SOUTH ALABAMA (-4 vs. Louisiana)

* PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS (83.3%) as a road favorite since 2021
* STANFORD is 8-19-1 (29.6%) ATS in the last 28 home games
* STANFORD is 12-30 ATS (28.6%) following an outright loss since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-14.5 at Stanford)

* TULANE is 51-26-1 (66.2%) ATS as a favorite since ’14
* TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO is 11-15 (42.3%) ATS at home since 2021
* TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO is 13-3 to the Over after an outright loss since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY TULANE (-4 at UTSA), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 55.5)

* UAB is 2-13 ATS (13.3%) following an outright win and 6-16 (27.3%) in road/neutral games over the last three seasons
Trends Match (FADE): UAB (+12.5 at UConn)

* USC is 32-15 ATS (68.1%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): USC-NEBRASKA (o/u at 59.5)

* VANDERBILT is on a 9-15 (37.5%) ATS skid following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): VANDERBILT (+1.5 at Texas)

* VIRGINIA TECH is 8-23 (25.8%) ATS in its last 31 games following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): VIRGINIA TECH (+10.5 vs. Louisville)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Week 9

(321) LOUISIANA at (322) SOUTH ALABAMA
* Under the total is 10-2 in the series since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LOUISIANA-SOUTH ALABAMA (o/u at 53.5)

(331) WAKE FOREST at (406) FLORIDA STATE
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the series in Tallahassee
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WAKE FOREST-FLORIDA STATE (o/u at 50.5)

(333) INDIANA at (334) MARYLAND
* Home teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine, and Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the series, including five straight Overs in College Park
Trend Match (PLAY): MARYLAND (+21.5 vs. Indiana)
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): INDIANA-MARYLAND (o/u at 50.5)

(347) ARMY at (348) AIR FORCE
* Underdogs are on 9-0 ATS streak and Under the total has converted in 12 straight in the Air Force-Army rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): ARMY (+1.5 at Air Force)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ARMY-AIR FORCE (o/u at 48.5)

(353) MICHIGAN STATE at (354) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games with MSU
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3 vs. Michigan State)

(367) WASHINGTON STATE at (368) OREGON STATE
* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WASHINGTON STATE-OREGON STATE (o/u at 47.5)

(371) NEW MEXICO at (372) UNLV
* Road teams are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in the last seven of the Mountain West rivalry, including five outright wins as road underdogs
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO (+4.5 at UNLV)

(375) TEXAS TECH at (376) KANSAS STATE
* KANSAS STATE is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 games with Texas Tech
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (+7 vs. Texas Tech)

(391) OKLAHOMA STATE at (392) KANSAS
* OKLAHOMA STATE is 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine versus KU
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA STATE (+24.5 at Kansas)

(405) HAWAII at (406) SAN JOSE STATE
* Road teams are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the series
Trend Match (PLAY): HAWAII (+2.5 at San Jose State)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR