The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 11. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

AJ’s Angles

* LOUISIANA is on a 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS run versus TSU
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISIANA (+2.5 vs. Texas State)

CFB Ranked Team System #14: Teams still ranked even after losing as seven-point favorites or more are 71-35 SU but 41-63-2 ATS (39.4%) in the follow-up games since September of ’16.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI FL (-28.5 vs. Syracuse)

* Big Ten home favorites of >= 11.5 points in Week 11 or later in the season have had their totals go Over at a 21-7 (75%) rate since 2017
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): INDIANA-PENN STATE (spread +14.5, o/u 49.5), OHIO STATE-PURDUE (spread +29.5, o/u 47.5), WASHINGTON-WISCONSIN (spread +11.5, o/u 44.5)

* Sun Belt non-Saturday games with totals >= 59 have gone Under at a 21-5 (80.8%) rate since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GEORGIA SOUTHERN-APPALACHIAN STATE (o/u at 62.5)

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is a 16-5 ATS MAC road underdog in its last 21 tries
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+14.5 at Toledo)

* Teams seeking revenge against a team that is allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 228-177 ATS (56.3%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): APPALACHIAN STATE (-6.5 vs. Georgia Southern), TULSA (+3.5 at Florida Atlantic), EAST CAROLINA (-28.5 vs. Charlotte), RICE (-2.5 vs. UAB)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 1-9 SU and ATS (10%) in its last 10 games as a road favorite
Trend Match (FADE): LOUISIANA TECH (-5.5 at Delaware)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen Power Ratings: COLORADO +6.5 at West Virginia (projections have line at Colorado -1.1)

College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll. 

CFB Ranked Team System #1: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 213-107 SU and 185-126-9 ATS (59.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS TECH (-10 vs. BYU), MISSOURI (+7 vs. Texas A&M)

CFB Ranked Team System #4: In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 42-20 (67.7%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the Under record jumps to 24-9 (72.7%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BYU-TEXAS TECH (spread TTU -10, o/u 52.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 339-26 SU but just 159-202-4 ATS (44%) versus unranked conference opponents since October ’15.
System Matches (FADE ALL): USC (-14.5 vs. Northwestern), MIAMI FL (-28.5 vs. Syracuse), LOUISVILLE (-19.5 vs. California)

CFB Ranked Team System #7: Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 85-55 UNDER the total (60.7%) dating back to October ’16.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TULANE-MEMPHIS (o/u at 55.5), AUBURN-VANDERBILT (o/u at 45.5), WAKE FOREST-VIRGINIA (o/u at 47.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an upset win over a top-15-ranked team are 114-84 SU but just 83-114-1 ATS (42.1%) in the follow-up game dating back to November ’16.
System Match (FADE): SMU (-10.5 at Boston College)

CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top-10-ranked team are just 133-140 SU and 120-151-2 ATS (44.3%) in the next game since October of ’16.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MARYLAND (-1.5 at Rutgers), LSU (+10 at Alabama)

CFB Ranked Team System #10: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of seven points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 114-29 SU but just 58-81-4 ATS (41.7%) since December of ’15.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SOUTH FLORIDA (-14 vs. UTSA), MIAMI FL (-28.5 vs. Syracuse), VANDERBILT (-6.5 vs. Auburn)

CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of seven points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 214-51 SU and 152-111-2 ATS (57.8%) surge when favored in the next game since October of ’15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): USC (-14.5 vs. Northwestern), GEORGIA (-7.5 at Mississippi State), ALABAMA (-10.5 vs. LSU)

CFB Ranked Team System #14: Teams still ranked even after losing as seven-point favorites or more are 71-35 SU but 41-63-2 ATS (39.4%) in the follow-up games. These teams are also 63-42-1 Under the total (60%) in these next games since September of ’16.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI FL (-28.5 vs. Syracuse)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SYRACUSE-MIAMI FL (o/u at 46.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #16: Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 91-74 SU and 99-64-2 ATS (60.7%) dating to November of ’15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WISCONSIN (+11.5 vs. Washington), PURDUE (+29.5 vs. Ohio State)

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than three points have struggled lately, 84-113 ATS (42.6%) since 2011.
System Match (FADE): TULSA (+3.5 at FAU)

* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than seven points after not having played in 14 days are on a 148-115 ATS (56.3%) surge since 2010.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BYU (+10 at Texas Tech), CHARLOTTE (+28.5 at East Carolina), GEORGIA STATE (+7.5 at Coastal Carolina), LSU (+10 at Alabama), NEVADA (+9.5 at Utah State)

* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than three points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play-against team, 30-49 ATS (38%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): WATCH FOR KENTUCKY vs. Florida (+3 currently*)

* Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 48-75 ATS (39%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): UCLA (-1.5 vs. Nebraska)

* Big Ten home underdogs of >= 11.5 points in Week 11 or later in the season have had their totals go Over at a 21-7 (75%) rate since 2017
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): INDIANA-PENN STATE (spread +14.5, o/u 49.5), OHIO STATE-PURDUE (spread +29.5, o/u 47.5), WASHINGTON-WISCONSIN (spread +11.5, o/u 44.5)

* Big Ten road favorites of -4 or less have gone 25-9 SU and 23-11 ATS (67.6%) in conference play since 2021
System Match (PLAY): MARYLAND (*if they fall into this line range at Rutgers, +1.5 currently*)

* Over the total is 20-7 (74.1%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021
System Match (PLAY OVER): FLORIDA-KENTUCKY (spread +3, total 43.5)

* Under the total is 68-46-1 (59.6%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WATCH FOR FLORIDA STATE-CLEMSON (spread -2.5, total 56.5)

* MWC home favorites of a touchdown or less (-0.5 to -7) with a total of >=60.5 have seen the total go Under at a 17-7 (70.8%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY UNDER): AIR FORCE-SAN JOSE STATE (spread -4.5, total 67.5)

* AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 113-15 SU and 74-48-6 (60.7%) ATS since 2015
System Match (PLAY): ARMY (*if they fall into this line range vs. Temple, -6.5 currently*)

* Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 51-28-1 (64.6%) rate since 2015 (including 21-5 (80.8%) when total is >= 59)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GEORGIA SOUTHERN-APPALACHIAN STATE (o/u at 62.5)

* Sun Belt road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 65-28 SU and 56-37 (60.2%) ATS since 2015
System Match (PLAY): SOUTHERN MISS (-4.5 at Arkansas State)* Under the total is 55-30-1 (64.7%) in Conference USA expected-tight matchups (-3 to +2.5 line range) since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (spread +1.5, o/u 51.5), JACKSONVILLE STATE-UTEP (spread +1.5, o/u 48.5)

Negative FADE trends:

• USC has not handled outright road wins well, going 0-9 ATS in the next game if against conference opponents
• USC has lost 14 of its last 19 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trends Match (FADE): USC (-14.5 vs. Northwestern)

• MISSISSIPPI STATE is on a 0-8 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win
Trend Match (FADE): MISSISSIPPI STATE (+8.5 vs. Georgia)

• UCF has lost 12 of its last 14 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trend Match (FADE): UCF (-1.5 vs. Houston)

• RUTGERS is on a 2-12 ATS skid as a Big Ten home underdog
Trend Match (FADE): RUTGERS (+1.5 vs. Maryland)

• MEMPHIS is on a 9-20 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win
Trend Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-6 vs. Tulane)

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• PURDUE has a respectable 14-5 ATS record in its last 19 games as a Big Ten dog of 20+ points
Trend Match (PLAY): PURDUE (+29.5 vs. Ohio State)

• GEORGIA STATE is on a solid road Sun Belt run of 15-5 ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+7.5 at Coastal Carolina)

• LOUISVILLE is on an impressive 12-5 ATS surge as an ACC home favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISVILLE (-19.5 vs. California)

• NORTHERN ILLINOIS is a 16-5 ATS MAC road underdog in its last 21 tries
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+14.5 at Toledo)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

* LSU is 17-8 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (+10 at Alabama)

* KENT STATE is 10-25 SU and 21-14 ATS (60%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): KENT STATE (+1.5 at Ball State)

* KENTUCKY is 16-23 SU and 23-16 ATS (59%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (+3 vs. Florida)

* NAVY is 17-24 SU and 26-15 ATS (63.4%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (+26.5 at Notre Dame)

* TULSA is 11-24 SU and 21-13 ATS (61.8%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (+3.5 at FAU)

* TULANE is 18-20 SU and 23-14 ATS (62.2%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (+6 at Memphis)

Home/Road revenge line range angles that have thrived
Teams playing as huge underdogs at home in revenge games have been almost automatic covers, as those catching 30-points or more have gone 1-21 SU but 18-4 ATS (81.8%) in their L22 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PURDUE (*if they fall into this line range vs. Ohio St, +29.5 currently*)

Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 52-44 ATS (54.2%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-13.5 at Marshall)

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 114-126 ATS (47.5%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TULANE (+6 at Memphis), MIAMI FL (-28.5 vs. Syracuse)

Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 109-20 SU and 84-40-5 ATS (67.7%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): EAST CAROLINA (-28.5 vs. Charlotte)

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 228-177 ATS (56.3%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): APPALACHIAN STATE (-6.5 vs. Georgia Southern), TULSA (+3.5 at Florida Atlantic), EAST CAROLINA (-28.5 vs. Charlotte), RICE (-2.5 vs. UAB)

Extreme Stat Next-Game CFB Betting Systems

Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders
* Over the last 12 years, teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 80-57 ATS (58.4%) in the follow-up game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KENTUCKY (+3 vs. Florida), OREGON STATE (-19.5 vs. Sam Houston State)

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on VSiN.com, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 1 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Since 2022, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons, and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span would have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): AKRON, BALL STATE, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTH FLORIDA, MEMPHIS, TEMPLE, WEST VIRGINIA, INDIANA, OHIO STATE, EASTERN MICHIGAN, LIBERTY, UAB, MARYLAND, EAST CAROLINA, TULSA, MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE, UTEP, TCU, IOWA, ARIZONA, UCONN, COASTAL CAROLINA, VANDERBILT, KENNESAW STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, SAN JOSE STATE, UNLV, OREGON STATE, SAN DIEGO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%; in 2023, it was 46.7%; in 2024, it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALL STATE, MEMPHIS, WEST VIRGINIA, RICE, COASTAL CAROLINA, VANDERBILT, SAN JOSE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in ’24, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JAMES MADISON, SMU, INDIANA, SOUTHERN MISS, OHIO STATE, LOUISIANA TECH, TEXAS A&M, KENNESAW STATE, WASHINGTON, TEXAS STATE, UNLV, SAN DIEGO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NORTHERN ILLINOIS, TEMPLE, UAB, MARYLAND, TULSA, SYRACUSE, FLORIDA STATE, CALIFORNIA, WAKE FOREST, LSU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, BYU, MARYLAND, TULSA, SYRACUSE, FLORIDA STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 season record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO, AKRON, BALL STATE, TOLEDO, SOUTH FLORIDA, APPALACHIAN STATE, HOUSTON, MEMPHIS, USC

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): EAST CAROLINA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the ’22 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2,364 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GEORGIA SOUTHERN-APPALACHIAN STATE, TULSA-FLORIDA ATLANTIC, DUKE-UCONN, TEXAS STATE-LOUISIANA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WASHINGTON-WISCONSIN, STANFORD-NORTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA-KENTUCKY

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NORTHERN ILLINOIS-TOLEDO, TEMPLE-ARMY, SYRACUSE-MIAMI FL, OREGON-IOWA, AUBURN-VANDERBILT, WASHINGTON-WISCONSIN, STANFORD-NORTH CAROLINA, NEBRASKA-UCLA

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. COLORADO +6.5 (+7.6)
2. WAKE FOREST +6.5 (+6.5)
3. NEBRASKA +1.5 (+5.6)
4. ARKANSAS STATE +4.5 (+4.1)
5. GEORGIA SOUTHERN +6.5 (+3.5)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BALL STATE -1.5 (+3.3)
2. USC -14.5 (+3.2)
3. ALABAMA -10 (+3.1)
4. GEORGIA -8.5 (+2.8)
5. OREGON -6.5 (+2.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). FLORIDA STATE +2.5 (+5.5)
PENN STATE +14.5 (+5.5)
3. CHARLOTTE +28.5 (+4.8)
4. NORTHWESTERN +14.5 (+4.7)
5. STANFORD +7 (+4.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOTRE DAME -26.5 (+5.8)
2. WASHINGTON -11.5 (+3.9)
3. ARIZONA -4.5 (+3.4)
4. OREGON STATE -20.5 (+3.3)
5. SMU -10.5 (+2.7)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOWLING GREEN-EASTERN MICHIGAN OVER 50.5 (+4.6)
2. BYU-TEXAS TECH OVER 52.5 (+3.4)
3. TEXAS A&M-MISSOURI OVER 48.5 (+3.0)
4. NORTHERN ILLINOIS-TOLEDO OVER 42.5 (+2.9)
5. CHARLOTTE-EAST CAROLINA OVER 56.5 (+2.8)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTSA-SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER 68.5 (-4.7)
2. GEORGIA STATE-COASTAL CAROLINA UNDER 57.5 (-4.4)
3. AIR FORCE-SAN JOSE STATE UNDER 67.5 (-3.3)
4. TEXAS STATE-LOUISIANA UNDER 64.5 (-3.0)
5. WAKE FOREST-VIRGINIA UNDER 48.5 (-2.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. COLORADO +6.5 (+15.3)
2. GEORGIA STATE +7.5 (+10.1)
3. BOWLING GREEN +2.5 (+10.0)
4. PENN STATE +14.5 (+6.9)
5. CHARLOTTE +28.5 (+6.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BALL STATE -1.5 (+10.1)
2. OREGON -6.5 (+9.8)
3. FLORIDA -3 (+7.0)
4. SMU -10.5 (+6.5)
5. USC -14.5 (+4.8)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OREGON-IOWA OVER 40.5 (+7.5)
2. NEBRASKA-UCLA OVER 43.5 (+5.6)
3. JACKSONVILLE STATE-UTEP OVER 48.5 (+4.7)
4. INDIANA-PENN STATE OVER 49.5 (+4.0)
5. KENT STATE-BALL STATE OVER 47.5 (+3.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. AIR FORCE-SAN JOSE STATE UNDER 67.5 (-6.1)
2. GEORGIA STATE-COASTAL CAROLINA UNDER 57.5 (-4.6)
3. GEORGIA SOUTHERN-APPALACHIAN STATE UNDER 62.5 (-3.6)
4. SAN DIEGO STATE-HAWAII UNDER 50.5 (-3.5)
5. UMASS-AKRON UNDER 51.5 (-3.3)

Comparing Effective Play-by-Play ratings to this week’s matchups

The following are taken from an article posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, looking at how Steve Makinen comes up with his ratings and any edges in games each weekend. As far as actionable items, here are the top 15 games for this weekend, showing the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences. Track these games to see how they fare, or back them already if you agree with the logic. Starting from Week 4 of 2025, these plays are 57-45-1 ATS (55.9%).

1. (173) OREGON at (174) IOWA
Actual Line: IOWA: +6.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: IOWA: +27.2
Difference: 20.7 – Favors: OREGON

2. (119) NORTHWESTERN at (120) USC
Actual Line: USC: -14.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: USC: -31.4
Difference: 16.9 – Favors: USC

3. (131) GEORGIA STATE at (132) COASTAL CAROLINA
Actual Line: COASTAL CAROLINA: -7.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: COASTAL CAROLINA: +4.5
Difference: 12 – Favors: GEORGIA STATE

4. (151) WAKE FOREST at (152) VIRGINIA
Actual Line: VIRGINIA: -6.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: VIRGINIA: +5.2
Difference: 11.7 – Favors: VIRGINIA

5. (187) AIR FORCE at (188) SAN JOSE STATE
Actual Line: SAN JOSE STATE: -4.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: SAN JOSE STATE: -16.2
Difference: 11.7 – Favors: SAN JOSE STATE

6. (159) UAB at (160) RICE
Actual Line: RICE: -2.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: RICE: +8.9
Difference: 11.4 – Favors: UAB

7. (167) AUBURN at (168) VANDERBILT
Actual Line: VANDERBILT: -6.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: VANDERBILT: -17.1
Difference: 10.6 – Favors: VANDERBILT

8. (107) NORTHERN ILLINOIS at (108) TOLEDO
Actual Line: TOLEDO: -14.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: TOLEDO: -25.2
Difference: 10.7 – Favors: TOLEDO

9. (203) SAN DIEGO STATE at (204) HAWAII
Actual Line: HAWAII: +7
Effective Play-by-play Line: HAWAII: +17.4
Difference: 10.4 – Favors: SAN DIEGO STATE

10. (175) WASHINGTON at (176) WISCONSIN
Actual Line: WISCONSIN: +11.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: WISCONSIN: +21.8
Difference: 10.3 – Favors: WASHINGTON

11. (137) FLORIDA STATE at (138) CLEMSON
Actual Line: CLEMSON: -2.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: CLEMSON: +7.3
Difference: 9.8 – Favors: FLORIDA STATE

12. (145) INDIANA at (146) PENN STATE
Actual Line: PENN STATE: +14.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: PENN STATE: +23.9
Difference: 9.4 – Favors: INDIANA

13. (179) KANSAS at (180) ARIZONA
Actual Line: ARIZONA: -4.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: ARIZONA: -12.8
Difference: 8.3 – Favors: ARIZONA

14. (185) JACKSONVILLE STATE at (186) UTEP
Actual Line: UTEP: +1.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: UTEP: -6.6
Difference: 8.1 – Favors: UTEP15.

(117) TULANE at (118) MEMPHIS
Actual Line: MEMPHIS: -6
Effective Play-by-play Line: MEMPHIS: +2
Difference: 8 – Favors: TULANE

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* AKRON is 17-31-1 (35.4%) ATS at home since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): AKRON (-11.5 vs. UMass)

* ALABAMA is on a 29-9 ATS (76.3%) surge at home
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-10 vs. LSU)

* APPALACHIAN STATE is 9-25 ATS (26.5%) in the last 34 games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): APPALACHIAN STATE (-6.5 vs. Georgia Southern)

* BALL STATE is 39-25-1 (60.9%) Under the total over last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KENT STATE-BALL STATE (o/u at 47.5)

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 27-17 (61.4%) ATS in conference games since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (+10.5 vs. SMU)

* BOWLING GREEN is 20-31 (39.2%) ATS as an underdog since ’19
Trend Match (FADE): BOWLING GREEN (+1.5 at Eastern Michigan)

* BYU is 13-3 to the Over (81.3%) as a road underdog since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BYU-TEXAS TECH (o/u at 52.5)

* CALIFORNIA is 29-18 (61.7%) ATS as an underdog since ’18
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+19.5 at Louisville)

* CLEMSON is 13-7 (65%) ATS in its last 20 following a SU loss
* FLORIDA STATE is 11-23 (32.4%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’19
* FLORIDA STATE is 12-25 (32.4%) ATS in conference games since ’21
Trends Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-2.5 vs. Florida State)

* COLORADO is 11-3 ATS (78.6%) following up a SU loss in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+6.5 at West Virginia)

* COLORADO STATE is 17-6-1 (73.9%) to the Under in home games since ’22
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UNLV-COLORADO STATE (o/u at 62.5)

* DUKE is 32-18 (64%) ATS in non-conference games since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY): DUKE (-9.5 at UConn)

* FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL is 15-31 (32.6%) in conference games over the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-1.5 at Middle Tenn State)

* GEORGIA is 24-16 (60%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA (-8.5 at Mississippi State)

* GEORGIA STATE is 21-12-1 (63.6%) ATS in its last 34 road/neutral games
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+7.5 at Coastal Carolina)

* HAWAII is 15-2-2 ATS (88.2%) as a home underdog in conference games since ‘20
Trend Match (PLAY): HAWAII (+7 vs. San Diego State)

* INDIANA is 18-10 (64.3%) to the Over on the road since ‘20
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): INDIANA-PENN STATE (o/u at 49.5)

* IOWA STATE is 18-8 (69.2%) ATS as an underdog since ’21
Trend Match (PLAY): IOWA STATE (+6.5 at TCU)

* JAMES MADISON is 29-15 (65.9%) ATS as a favorite since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-13.5 at Marshall)

* KANSAS is 42-25-1 (62.7%) Over the total since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KANSAS-ARIZONA (o/u at 56.5)

* KENT STATE is 13-26 (33.3%) ATS in its last 39 games as an underdog
Trend Match (FADE): KENT STATE (+1.5 at Ball State)

* LOUISIANA is 28-12 to the Under (70%) in home games since ‘19
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEXAS STATE-LOUISIANA (o/u at 64.5)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 39-28-1 (58.2%) Over the total since ‘19
* LOUISIANA TECH is 1-9 SU and ATS (10%) in its last 10 as as road favorite
* LOUISIANA TECH is 14-22 (38.9%) ATS in conference games over the last four seasons
Trends Match: FADE LOUISIANA TECH (-5.5 at Delaware), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 56.5)

* LSU is 24-16 (60%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (+10 at Alabama)

* MIAMI OHIO is on a 38-26-1 (59.4%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIAMI OH-OHIO (o/u at 49.5)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 33-25 (56.7%) Under the total since ’21
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 21-12 (63.6%) ATS at home  since ’21
Trends Match: PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (+8.5 vs. Georgia), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 57.5)

* NORTH CAROLINA is 3-8-1 (27.3%) ATS in its last 12 as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): NORTH CAROLINA (-7 vs. Stanford)

* OHIO U is 25-12 ATS (67.6%) in conference games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (-2.5 vs. Miami OH)

* OLE MISS is 18-6 ATS (75%) in non-conference games in five seasons under coach Lane Kiffin
Trend Match (PLAY): OLE MISS (vs. Citadel)

* OREGON STATE is 27-14 (65.9%) ATS coming off a SU win since ’16
* OREGON STATE is 30-13 (69.8%) ATS in home games over the last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): OREGON STATE (-19.5 vs. Sam Houston State)

* PENN STATE is 11-23 (32.4%) ATS coming off a SU loss since ’15
Trend Match (FADE): PENN STATE (+14.5 vs. Indiana)

* PURDUE is 6-18 ATS (25%) at home over the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PURDUE (+29.5 vs. Ohio State)

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 49-29 (62.8%) Under the total since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SDSU-HAWAII (o/u at 50.5)

* STANFORD is 12-31 ATS (27.9%) following an outright loss since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): STANFORD (+7 at North Carolina)

* TEMPLE is 22-11 (66.7%) ATS coming off SU loss since ’20
* TEMPLE is 8-18 (30.8%) ATS in road games over the last four seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TEMPLE (+6.5 at Army)

* TEXAS A&M is 6-12 SU and 5-12-2 ATS on the road since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS A&M (-7 at Missouri)

* TULSA is 26-14-1 (65%) ATS in road/neutral games over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (+3.5 at FAU)

* UAB is 6-17 (26.1%) in road/neutral games over the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): UAB (+2.5 at Rice)

* USC is 32-16 ATS (66.7%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NORTHWESTERN-USC (o/u at 50.5)

* UTEP is 9-23 (28.1%) ATS at home since ’20
Trend Match (FADE): UTEP (+1.5 vs. Jacksonville State)

* WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS (10%) in road/neutral games and 3-8 (27.3%) following outright wins since 2024
* WASHINGTON is 26-12 (68.4%) to the Under in road games since ’17
Trends Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-11.5 at Wisconsin), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 44.5)

* WEST VIRGINIA has gone 21-12 ATS (63.6%) at home in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (-6.5 vs. Colorado)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Week 11

(107) NORTHERN ILLINOIS at (108) TOLEDO
* Road teams are 11-2 ATS run in this series
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+14.5 at Toledo)

(115) HOUSTON at (116) UCF
* Road teams have covered eight straight ATS in the series
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 at UCF)

(131) GEORGIA STATE at (132) COASTAL CAROLINA
* Road teams are a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS in this series since ‘17
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+7.5 at Coastal Carolina)

(137) FLORIDA STATE at (138) CLEMSON
* Favorites are on a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS streak in the Clemson-FSU rivalry (last year’s ATS loss was by the hook, Clemson won 29-13 as a 16.5-point favorite)
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-2.5 vs. Florida State)

(145) INDIANA at (146) PENN STATE
* OVER the total is 5-1 in the last six of this series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): INDIANA-PENN STATE (o/u at 49.5)

(151) WAKE FOREST at (152) VIRGINIA
* WAKE FOREST is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games with UVA, and 5-0 ATS in its last five as a road underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): WAKE FOREST (+6.5 at Virginia)

(153) BOWLING GREEN at (138) EASTERN MICHIGAN
* Road teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): BOWLING GREEN (+1.5 at Eastern Michigan)

(159) UAB at (160) RICE
* Home teams are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): RICE (-2.5 vs. UAB)

(161) IOWA STATE at (162) TCU
* Home teams are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): TCU (-6.5 vs. Iowa State)

(167) AUBURN at (168) VANDERBILT
* Under the total has converted in all six meetings since 2007
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AUBURN-VANDERBILT (o/u at 45.5)

(171) TEXAS STATE at (172) LOUISIANA
* LOUISIANA is on a 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS run versus TSU
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISIANA (+2.5 vs. Texas State)

(177) UNLV at (178) COLORADO STATE
* COLORADO STATE is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games with UNLV, including seven straight covers when hosting the Rebels
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO STATE (+4.5 vs. UNLV)

(183) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at (184) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
* Home teams are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (+1.5 vs. FIU)

* OVER the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of this rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): FIU-MTSU (o/u at 51.5)

(197) NEVADA at (198) UTAH STATE
* Home teams are 10-2 ATS in this series since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH STATE (-9.5 vs. Nevada)

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