The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 12. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

AJ’s Angles

* Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 59-22 SU and 51-29-1 ATS (63.8%) in the next game since November of ’21.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (-16.5 at Boston College), CINCINNATI (-6.5 vs. Arizona), BYU (-4.5 vs. TCU)

* Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 43-70 SU and 41-68-4 ATS (37.6%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): OREGON STATE (-2.5 at Tulsa)

* Home underdogs of > 10 points on Tuesday/Wednesday Night MACtion have gone Over the total at a 15-4-1 (78.9%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY OVER): NORTHERN ILLINOIS-UMASS (spread +11.5, total 43.5)

* UTSA has won 13 of its last 14 conference games ATS when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): UTSA (-18.5 at Charlotte)

* BOISE STATE is on a 13-3 (81.3%) ATS run following a SU loss
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (+3 at San Diego State)

* CFB teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are 68-33 Under the total (67.3%) in these next games dating back to September of ’21.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WISCONSIN-INDIANA (o/u at 44.5), OKLAHOMA-ALABAMA (o/u at 45.5), NC STATE-MIAMI FL (o/u at 55.5), TEXAS-GEORGIA (o/u at 48.5)

#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen Power Ratings: KANSAS STATE -19.5 at Oklahoma State (projections have line at KANSAS STATE -23.3)

College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll. 

CFB Ranked Team System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams

· In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 214-108 SU and 186-127-9 ATS (59.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+11.5 vs. Notre Dame), ALABAMA (-6 vs. Oklahoma), GEORGIA (-6 vs. Texas)

· Digging deeper into that data, when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 122-29 SU and 91-56-4 ATS (61.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ALABAMA (-6 vs. Oklahoma), GEORGIA (-6 vs. Texas)

· Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 63-26 SU and 56-30-3 ATS (65.1%) since ’17.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ALABAMA (-6 vs. Oklahoma), GEORGIA (-6 vs. Texas)

CFB Ranked Team System #2 – Road ranked teams vs. non-ranked hosts: In games Week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 131-35 SU and 91-72-3 ATS (55.8%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than six points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 113-16 SU and 73-53-3 ATS (57.9%) in that same Week 12 and later time span.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): VIRGINIA, SOUTH FLORIDA, MICHIGAN, GEORGIA TECH, UTAH

CFB Ranked Team System #3 — Home ranked teams vs. non-ranked visitors: In games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 115-14 SU but just 53-70-2 ATS (43.1%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 40-8 SU and 31-17 ATS (64.6%) since ’17.
System Matches: PLAY ALL SMALLER FAVORITES/UNDERDOGS – LOUISVILLE, CINCINNATI, USC, BYU

FADE ALL BIG FAVORITES – OREGON, INDIANA, TEXAS A&M, JAMES MADISON, MIAMI FL, TEXAS TECH, TENNESSEE, OLE MISS, OHIO STATE

CFB Ranked Team System #5: Unranked teams favored over ranked teams in Power 4 conference games boast a record of 62-28 SU and 51-35-4 ATS (59.3%) dating back to November ’16.
System Match (PLAY): DUKE (-6 vs. Virginia)

CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 341-27 SU but just 160-204-4 ATS (44%) versus unranked conference opponents since October ’15.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): OREGON, INDIANA, TEXAS A&M, JAMES MADISON, MIAMI FL, TEXAS TECH, OLE MISS, OHIO STATE

CFB Ranked Team System #7: Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of seven or fewer points have gone 86-57 UNDER the total (60.1%) dating back to October ’16.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLEMSON-LOUISVILLE, ARIZONA-CINCINNATI, IOWA-USC, TCU-BYU

CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an upset win over a top-15 ranked team are 115-84 SU but just 84-114-1 ATS (42.4%) in the follow-up game, dating back to November ’16.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NC STATE (+14.5 at Miami FL), OKLAHOMA (+6 at Alabama), WAKE FOREST (-6.5 vs. North Carolina)

CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top-10-ranked team are just 133-142 SU and 120-153-2 ATS (44%) in the next game since October of ’16.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PURDUE (+16.5 at Washington), PENN STATE (-7.5 at Michigan State), IOWA (+7 at USC)

CFB Ranked Team System #10: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of seven points or less and playing an unranked team are 117-29 SU but just 60-82-4 ATS (42.3%) since December of ’15.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE (-40.5 vs. New Mexico State), LOUISVILLE (-3 vs. Clemson), VIRGINIA (+6 at Duke)

CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of seven points or less where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 217-51 SU and 155-111-2 ATS (58.3%) surge when favored in the next game since October of ’15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON (-25.5 vs. Minnesota), INDIANA (-29.5 vs. Wisconsin), MICHIGAN (-11.5 at Northwestern)

CFB Ranked Team System #12: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 59-22 SU and 51-29-1 ATS (63.8%) in the next game since November of ’21.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (-16.5 at Boston College), CINCINNATI (-6.5 vs. Arizona), BYU (-4.5 vs. TCU)

CFB Ranked Team System #13: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 78-38 SU but just 49-65-2 ATS (43%) when favored in the follow-up game since November of ’15.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WAKE FOREST (-6.5 vs. North Carolina), TULANE (-17.5 vs. Florida Atlantic)

CFB Ranked Team System #14: Teams still ranked even after losing as favorites of seven-point or more are 72-35 SU but 41-64-2 ATS (39%) in the follow-up games. These teams are also 63-43-1 Under the total (59.4%) in these next games since September of ’16.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LOUISVILLE (-3 vs. Clemson), WASHINGTON (-16.5 vs. Purdue), VIRGINIA (+6 at Duke)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLEMSON-LOUISVILLE (o/u at 50.5), PURDUE-WASHINGTON (o/u at 53.5), VIRGINIA-DUKE (o/u at 57.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 61-83 SU and 62-79-3 ATS (44%) since September ’19. These teams are also 68-33 Under the total (67.3%) in these next games dating back to September of ’21.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WISCONSIN (+29.5 at Indiana), OKLAHOMA (+6 at Alabama), NC STATE (+14.5 at Miami FL), TEXAS (+6 at Georgia)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WISCONSIN-INDIANA (o/u at 44.5), OKLAHOMA-ALABAMA (o/u at 45.5), NC STATE-MIAMI FL (o/u at 55.5), TEXAS-GEORGIA (o/u at 48.5)

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than three points have struggled lately, 84-114 ATS (42.4%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE ALL): APPALACHIAN STATE (+21 at James Madison), IOWA (+7 at USC)

* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than seven points after not having played in 14 are on a 149-119 ATS (55.6%) surge since 2010.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SOUTH CAROLINA (+19.5 at Texas A&M), NC STATE (+14.5 at Miami FL), VIRGINIA TECH (+14 at Florida State)

* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than three points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 31-49 ATS (38.8%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): SAM HOUSTON STATE (+9.5 vs. Delaware)

* Big Ten home underdogs of >= 11.5 points in Week 11 or later in the season have had their totals go Over at a 22-8 (73.3%) rate since 2017
System Match (PLAY OVER): MICHIGAN-NORTHWESTERN (spread +11.5, total 41.5)

* Big Ten home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone Under the total at a 39-18 (68.4%) rate since 2017
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MINNESOTA-OREGON (spread -25.5, total 43.5), WISCONSIN-INDIANA (spread -29.5, total 44.5)

* Big 12 home favorites of 21 points or more have seen totals go Over at a 25-11 (69.4%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY OVER): UCF-TEXAS TECH (spread -23.5, total 47.5)

* Under the total is 68-46-1 (59.6%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLEMSON-LOUISVILLE (spread -3, total 50.5)

* AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 114-15 SU and 74-49-6 (60.2%) ATS since 2015
System Match (PLAY): SOUTH FLORIDA (-10.5 at Navy)

* Home underdogs of > 10 points on Tuesday/Wednesday Night MACtion have gone Over the total at a 15-4-1 (78.9%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY OVER): NORTHERN ILLINOIS-UMASS (spread +11.5, total 43.5)

* MAC home/neutral underdogs in the +2.5 to +5.5 line range have seen their totals go Under at a 40-22 rate (64.5%) since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOLEDO-MIAMI OH (spread +4, total 45.5), EASTERN MICHIGAN-BALL STATE (spread +2.5, total 50.5)

* MWC home favorites of a touchdown or less (-0.5 to -7) with a total of >=60.5 have seen the total go Under at a 18-7 (72%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTAH STATE-UNLV (spread -6, total 71.5)

* Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 52-28-1 (65%) rate since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TROY-OLD DOMINION (o/u at 52.5)

* Sun Belt road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 66-29 SU and 56-39 (58.9%) ATS since 2015
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MARSHALL (-7.5 at Georgia State), SOUTH ALABAMA (-4.5 at LA Monroe)

Negative FADE trends:

• UCF is on a 2-13 ATS skid in conference games when coming off a close loss of seven points or less
Trend Match (FADE): UCF (+23.5 at Texas Tech)

• USC has lost 14 of its last 20 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trend Match (FADE): USC (-7 vs. Iowa)

• ILLINOIS is on a 4-15 ATS skid as a conference home favorite
Trend Match (FADE): ILLINOIS (-15.5 vs. Maryland)

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• UTSA has won 13 of its last 14 conference games ATS when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): UTSA (-18.5 at Charlotte)

• TROY has won 12 of its last 14 Sun Belt road games ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (+11.5 at Old Dominion)

• WESTERN KENTUCKY is on a 14-3 ATS surge in conference play when coming off a win at home
Trend Match (PLAY): WESTERN KENTUCKY (-13.5 vs. Middle Tennessee State)

• KANSAS STATE is on an 11-1 ATS run in Big 12 action when coming off a blowout loss of 20+ points
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (-19.5 at Oklahoma State)

• MICHIGAN is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 games vs. Big Ten foes when coming off a home win
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (-11.5 at Northwestern)

• LOUISVILLE is on an impressive 12-6 ATS surge as an ACC home favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISVILLE (-3 vs. Clemson)

• LSU is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 SEC games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (-5.5 vs. Arkansas)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

Best

* COASTAL CAROLINA is 13-11 SU and 16-8 ATS (66.7%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): COASTAL CAROLINA (+2.5 at GA Southern)

* KENT STATE is 10-26 SU but 21-15 ATS (58.3%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): KENT STATE (+7 at Akron)

* SOUTH FLORIDA is 7-28 SU but 20-15 ATS (57.1%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH FLORIDA (-10.5 at Navy)

Worst

* OLE MISS is 15-21 SU and 13-21 ATS (38.2%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): OLE MISS (-15.5 vs. Florida)

* NEW MEXICO is 9-36 SU and 17-26 ATS (39.5%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): NEW MEXICO (-14.5 vs. Colorado State)

* UTAH STATE is 8-19 SU and 7-20 ATS (25.9%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH STATE (+6 at UNLV)

Road revenge line range angles that have thrived
Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 52-45 ATS (53.6%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): SOUTH FLORIDA (-10.5 at Navy)

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 115-127 ATS (47.5%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEMSON (+3 at Louisville), ALABAMA (-6 vs. Oklahoma), OLE MISS (-15.5 vs. Florida)

Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 110-20 SU and 84-41-5 ATS (67.2%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS A&M (-19.5 vs. South Carolina), NEW MEXICO (-14.5 vs. Colorado State), JAMES MADISON (-21 vs. Appalachian State), SOUTHERN MISS (-5.5 vs. Texas State), OLE MISS (-15.5 vs. Florida)

Extreme Stat Next-Game CFB Betting Systems

Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 43-70 SU and 41-68-4 ATS (37.6%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): OREGON STATE (-2.5 at Tulsa)

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next game, going just 149-189-1 ATS (44.1%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (FADE): FRESNO STATE (-3.5 vs. Wyoming)

Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders
Over the last 12 years, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 81-58 ATS (58.3%) in the follow-up game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WISCONSIN (+29.5 at Indiana), BALL STATE (+2.5 vs. Eastern Michigan), WAKE FOREST (-6.5 vs. North Carolina), FRESNO STATE (-3.5 vs. Wyoming)

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on VSiN.com, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span would have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WESTERN MICHIGAN, OLD DOMINION, OREGON, SOUTH FLORIDA, BALL STATE, TULSA, ARIZONA STATE, MARSHALL, NORTH TEXAS, NEW MEXICO, JAMES MADISON, GEORGIA TECH, DUKE, MICHIGAN STATE, SOUTHERN MISS, TEXAS TECH, WESTERN KENTUCKY, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, DELAWARE, OLE MISS, WASHINGTON, UNLV, MISSOURI, WASHINGTON STATE, BYU, WYOMING

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022 it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MISSOURI STATE, SOUTHERN MISS, TEXAS TECH, WESTERN KENTUCKY, UNLV, WASHINGTON STATE, BYU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in ’24 but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NORTHERN ILLINOIS, UTSA, SOUTH FLORIDA, KANSAS STATE, MARSHALL, NORTH TEXAS, GEORGIA TECH, SOUTH ALABAMA, SAN JOSE STATE, DELAWARE, UTAH

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BUFFALO, NC STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, VIRGINIA TECH, WYOMING

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WISCONSIN, VIRGINIA, MEMPHIS, COASTAL CAROLINA, VIRGINIA TECH

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 season record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of time,s their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): AKRON, OHIO, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, OLD DOMINION, LOUISVILLE, OREGON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, OHIO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the ’22 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2,364 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTSA-CHARLOTTE, SOUTH FLORIDA-NAVY, MARSHALL-GEORGIA STATE, UTAH-BAYLOR

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NORTHERN ILLINOIS-UMASS, OREGON STATE-TULSA, TEXAS-GEORGIA, LOUISIANA TECH-WASHINGTON STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TOLEDO-MIAMI OH, BUFFALO-CENTRAL MICHIGAN, MINNESOTA-OREGON, WISCONSIN-INDIANA, MICHIGAN-NORTHWESTERN, OKLAHOMA-AUBURN, NORTH CAROLINA-WAKE FOREST, WYOMING-FRESNO STATE, BOISE STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOISE STATE +3 (+7.5)
2. FLORIDA +15.5 (+4.6)
3. TROY +11.5 (+3.7)
4. SAM HOUSTON STATE +9.5 (+3.2)
5. CLEMSON +3 (+3.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KANSAS STATE -19.5 (+3.8)
2. MARSHALL -7.5 (+2.9)
3 (tie). GEORGIA SOUTHERN -2.5 (+2.7)
ALABAMA -6 (+2.7)
5. TULANE -17.5 (+2.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UAB +18.5 (+5.4)
2. ARIZONA +6.5 (+4.5)
3. VIRGINIA +6 (+4.4)
4. UTAH STATE +6 (+4.3)
5. LOUISIANA TECH +8.5 (+4.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA -29.5 (+7.6)
2. OREGON -25.5 (+6.4)
3. UTSA -18.5 (+4.5)
4. OHIO STATE -32.5 (+3.8)
5. JAMES MADISON -21 (+3.0)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA-OREGON OVER 43.5 (+4.2)
2. BUFFALO-CENTRAL MICHIGAN OVER 43.5 (+3.9)
3. BOISE STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE OVER 41.5 (+3.7)
4. WYOMING-FRESNO STATE OVER 40.5 (+3.5)
5. TCU-BYU OVER 51.5 (+3.3)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH STATE-UNLV UNDER 71.5 (-5.8)
2. NORTH TEXAS-UAB UNDER 69.5 (-4.7)
3. UTSA-CHARLOTTE UNDER 59.5 (-3.8)
4. COASTAL CAROLINA-GA SOUTHERN UNDER 60.5 (-3.2)
5. WEST VIRGINIA-ARIZONA STATE UNDER 48.5 (-3.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. COLORADO STATE +14.5 (+9.5)
2. FLORIDA +15.5 (+9.3)
3. SOUTH CAROLINA +19.5 (+6.8)
4. BOISE STATE +3 (+6.7)
5. UAB +18.5 (+5.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOTRE DAME -11.5 (+6.0)
2. GEORGIA SOUTHERN -2.5 (+3.7)
3. KENNESAW STATE -3 (+3.5)
4. PENN STATE -7.5 (+3.4)
5. LSU -5.5 (+2.9)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOISE STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE OVER 41.5 (+5.9)
2 (tie). VIRGINIA-DUKE OVER 57.5 (+3.8)
IOWA-USC OVER 49.5 (+3.8)
4. ARKANSAS-LSU OVER 56.5 (+3.4)
5. BUFFALO-CENTRAL MICHIGAN OVER 43.5 (+3.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. APPALACHIAN STATE-JAMES MADISON UNDER 53.5 (-4.3)
2. WEST VIRGINIA-ARIZONA STATE UNDER 48.5 (-4.0)
3. UTAH STATE-UNLV UNDER 71.5 (-3.7)
4. FLORIDA ATLANTIC-TULANE UNDER 63.5 (-3.3)
5. COASTAL CAROLINA-GA SOUTHERN UNDER 60.5 (-3.1)

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* AIR FORCE is 32-20 (61.5%) ATS in non-conference games since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY): AIR FORCE (+7 at UConn)

* AKRON is 18-31-1 (36.7%) ATS at home since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): AKRON (-7 vs. Kent State)

* ALABAMA is on a 30-9 ATS (76.9%) surge at home
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-6 vs. Oklahoma)

* ARIZONA is 18-32 (36%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+6.5 at Cincinnati)

* BALL STATE is 40-25-1 (61.5%) Under the total over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): EASTERN MICHIGAN-BALL STATE (o/u at 50.5)

* BOISE STATE is on a 13-3 (81.3%) ATS run following a SU loss
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (+3 at San Diego State)

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 27-18 (60%) ATS in conference games since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (+16.5 vs. Georgia Tech)

* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 6-14 ATS (30%) as a favorite in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-1.5 vs. Buffalo)

* UTSA is 19-9 ATS (67.9%) following a SU loss since ‘19
* CHARLOTTE is 5-19 (20.8%) ATS in its last 24 home games
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+18.5 vs. UTSA)

* CLEMSON is 24-13 (64.9%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (+3 at Louisville)

* EASTERN MICHIGAN is 41-21 (66.1%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (-2.5 at Ball State)

* FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 6-18 (25%) ATS in its last 24 games following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+17.5 at Tulane)

* FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL is 16-31 (34%) in conference games over the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+3 vs. Liberty)

* FLORIDA STATE is 12-26 (31.6%) ATS in conference games since ’21
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA STATE (-14 vs. VA Tech)

* FRESNO STATE is 37-23-1 (61.7%) Under the total since ’21
* FRESNO STATE is 23-14 (62.2%) ATS coming off a SU win since ’21
Trends Match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (-3.5 vs. Wyoming), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 40.5)

* GEORGIA TECH is 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%) as a favorite since ‘18
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA TECH (-16.5 at Boston College)

* JAMES MADISON is 29-16 (64.4%) ATS as a favorite since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-21 vs. Appalachian State)

* KANSAS STATE is 13-6 ATS (68.4%) following a SU loss in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (-19.5 at Oklahoma State)

* KENT STATE is 13-27 (32.5%) ATS in the last 40 games as an underdog
Trend Match (FADE): KENT STATE (+7 at Akron)

* KENTUCKY is 20-8 (71.4%) ATS in non-conference games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (vs. Tennessee Tech)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 39-29-1 (57.4%) Over the total since ‘19
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LOUISIANA TECH-WASHINGTON STATE (o/u at 45.5)

* MIAMI OHIO is on a 39-26-1 (60%) Under the total run over last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOLEDO-MIAMI OH (o/u at 45.5)

* MICHIGAN is 20-10 (66.7%) ATS in road/neutral games in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (-11.5 at Northwestern)

* MINNESOTA is 12-5-2 (70.6%) ATS as a double-digit conference underdog since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+25.5 at Oregon)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 33-26 (55.9%) Under the total since ’21
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MISSISSIPPI STATE-MISSOURI (o/u at 51.5)

* NEW MEXICO is 22-44 (33.3%) ATS in conference games since ’17
* NEW MEXICO is 8-20 (28.6%) ATS as a favorite since ’18
* NEW MEXICO is 23-10 (69.7%) Over the total in the last 2+ seasons
Trends Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (-14.5 vs. Colorado State), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 53.5)

* NOTRE DAME is 31-11 ATS (73.8%) in road/neutral games in last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-11.5 at Pittsburgh)

* OHIO U is 26-12 ATS (68.4%) in conference games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (+1.5 at Western Michigan)

* OLD DOMINION is 11-23 (32.4%) ATS at home since ’19
Trend Match (FADE): OLD DOMINION (-11.5 vs. Troy)

* OLE MISS is 13-22-2 (37.1%) ATS in conference games since ’21
Trend Match (FADE): OLE MISS (-15.5 vs. Florida)

* PENN STATE is 12-23 (34.3%) ATS coming off a SU loss since ’15
Trend Match (FADE): PENN STATE (-7.5 at Michigan State)

* PITTSBURGH is 46-25 (64.8%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOTRE DAME-PITTSBURGH (o/u at 55.5)

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 50-29 (63.3%) Under the total since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOISE STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE (o/u at 41.5)

* TENNESSEE is 18-5 (78.3%) ATS in non-conference games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-40.5 vs. New Mexico State)

* TEXAS TECH is 19-6 (76%) ATS in the last 25 games as a double-digit favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-23.5 vs. UCF)

* TROY is 23-6 (79.3%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’21
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (+11.5 at Old Dominion)

* TULANE is 51-27-1 (65.4%) ATS as a favorite since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (-17.5 vs. FAU)

* UAB is 22-11 (66.7%) ATS at home since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): UAB (+18.5 vs. North Texas)

* UTAH STATE is 5-17 ATS (22.7%) in road/neutral games over the last three seasons
* UNLV is on a 22-10 (68.8%) ATS run following a SU win
Trends Match (PLAY): UNLV (-6 vs. Utah State)

* USC is 33-16 ATS (67.3%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IOWA-USC (o/u at 49.5)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Week 12

(301) OHIO at (302) WESTERN MICHIGAN
* Road teams are 4-2 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in the OHIO-WMU series since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (+1.5 at WESTERN MICHIGAN)

(331) MEMPHIS at (332) EAST CAROLINA
* Over the total is 8-3 in the last 11 of the series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEMPHIS-EAST CAROLINA (o/u at 59.5)

(339) VIRGINIA at (340) DUKE
* VIRGINIA is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine games with Duke
Trend Match (PLAY): VIRGINIA (+6 at Duke)

(341) VIRGINIA TECH at (342) FLORIDA STATE
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of this ACC series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): VIRGINIA TECH-FLORIDA STATE (o/u at 54.5)

(355) EASTERN MICHIGAN at (356) BALL STATE
* Road teams are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the series
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (-2.5 at Ball State)

(367) KANSAS STATE at (368) OKLAHOMA STATE
* Home teams are on a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS run in this rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA STATE (+19.5 vs. Kansas State)

(371) FLORIDA at (372) MISSISSIPPI
* Underdogs are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in this series since 2002
Trend Match (PLAY): FLORIDA (+15.5 at OLE Miss)

(383) NORTH TEXAS at (384) UAB
* Favorites are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in last seven of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTH TEXAS (-18.5 at UAB)

(391) COLORADO STATE at (392) NEW MEXICO
* COLORADO STATE is on a 9-1-1 ATS run versus UNM
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO STATE (+14.5 at New Mexico)

* Under the total has converted in six straight CSU-UNM games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COLORADO STATE-NEW MEXICO (o/u at 53.5)

(399) WYOMING at (400) FRESNO STATE
* Under the total is 6-1-1 in the last eight of this MWC rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WYOMING-FRESNO STATE (o/u at 40.5)

(417) BOISE STATE at (418) SAN DIEGO STATE
* Underdogs are 5-0 ATS in the BSU-SDSU series at San Diego State since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (+3 at San Diego State)

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