The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 13. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are 72-33 UNDER the total (68.6%) in these next contests dating back to September of ’21.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MISSOURI-OKLAHOMA (o/u at 42.5), USC-OREGON (o/u at 59.5) 

* SAN JOSE ST is on an 11-2 ATS surge as a double-digit conference underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN JOSE ST (+12.5 at San Diego St) 

* LA LAFAYETTE is 16-4-1 ATS (80%) as a conference underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAFAYETTE (+3 at Arkansas St) 

* BIG 10 HOME UNDERDOGS of >= 11.5 points in weeks 11 or later in the season have gone OVER the total at a 22-8 (73.3%) rate since 2017
System Match (PLAY OVER): MICHIGAN-MARYLAND (spread +14, total 46.5)

* FAVORITES are on runs of 23-1 SU & 13-2-1 ATS in h2h matchups between Miami (OH) and Buffalo
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (OH) (-1.5 at Buffalo) 

* CFB FBS teams that benefitted from a +5 turnover differential or greater but failed to score 44+ points in that game have responded by going just 39-58 ATS (40.2%) in their next contest since ’12.
System Match (FADE): NORTHWESTERN (-3.5 vs Minnesota) 

* CFB teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 114-21 SU & 85-45-5 ATS (65.4%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): SOUTHERN MISS (-1.5 at South Alabama) 

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen Effective Strength Ratings: RICE +18.5 vs North Texas (projections have line at Rice +11.5) 

College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll 

CFB Ranked Team System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams

· In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, HOME TEAMS are NOW 215-110 SU & 187-129-9 ATS (59.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA (-7.5 vs Missouri), OREGON (-9.5 vs USC) 

· Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 123-30 SU & 92-57-4 ATS (61.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA (-7.5 vs Missouri), OREGON (-9.5 vs USC)

· Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 64-27 SU & 57-31-3 ATS (64.8%) since ’17.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA (-7.5 vs Missouri), OREGON (-9.5 vs USC) 

CFB Ranked Team System #2 – Road ranked teams vs. non-ranked hosts: In games week 12 or later in the season, RANKED ROAD TEAMS are now 135-36 SU & 93-75-3 ATS (55.4%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these RANKED ROAD TEAMS are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 116-17 SU & 74-56-3 ATS (56.9%) in that same week 12 & later time span.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI FL, TULANE, MICHIGAN, TENNESSEE, NORTH TEXAS, BYU 

CFB Ranked Team System #3 – Home ranked teams vs. non-ranked visitors: In games week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of RANKED HOME TEAMS against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 123-14 SU but just 58-73-2 ATS (44.3%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 43-10 SU & 32-21 ATS (60.4%) since ’17.
System Matches: PLAY ALL SMALLER FAVORITES/UNDERDOGS – TEXAS, VANDERBILT, HOUSTON, GEORGIA TECH
FADE ALL BIG FAVORITES – OHIO ST, GEORGIA, JAMES MADISON, NOTRE DAME, UTAH 

CFB Ranked Team System #4: In college football games featuring TWO RANKED TEAMS with the home team being a double-digit favorite, UNDER the total boasts an impressive 43-20 (68.3%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the UNDER record jumps to 24-9 (72.7%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NONE YET, BUT WATCH FOR – USC-OREGON (spread -9.5, total 59.5) 

CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 348-27 SU but just 165-206-4 ATS (44.5%) versus unranked conference opponents since October ’15.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): OHIO ST (-31.5 vs Rutgers), UTAH (-17.5 vs Kansas St) 

CFB Ranked Team System #7: Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 89-58 UNDER the total (60.5%) dating back to October ’16.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TCU-HOUSTON (o/u at 54.5), PITTSBURGH-GEORGIA TECH (o/u at 61.5) 

CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an UPSET WIN over a Top 15 ranked team are 117-85 SU but just 86-115-1 ATS (42.8%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November ’16.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA (-7.5 vs Missouri)

CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top 10-ranked team are just 135-145 SU & 123-155-2 ATS (44.2%) in the next game since October of ’16.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+2.5 at Georgia Tech) 

CFB Ranked Team System #10: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 119-30 SU but just 61-84-4 ATS (42.1%) since December of ’15.
System Match (FADE): ALABAMA (vs Eastern Illinois) 

CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 220-51 SU & 156-113-2 ATS (58%) surge when favored in the next game since October of ’15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (-2.5 vs Pittsburgh), MICHIGAN (-14 at Maryland), TEXAS A&M (vs Samford)

CFB Ranked Team System #12: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 61-23 SU & 52-31-1 ATS (62.7%) in the next game since November of ’21.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-8.5 vs Arkansas)

CFB Ranked Team System #13: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 80-38 SU but just 50-66-2 ATS (43.1%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November of ’15.
System Match (FADE): CLEMSON (vs Furman), ARIZONA (-6.5 vs Baylor), CALIFORNIA (-3 at Stanford) 

CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 62-86 SU & 64-81-3 ATS (44.1%) since September ‘19. These teams are also 72-33 UNDER the total (68.6%) in these next contests dating back to September of ’21.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA (-7.5 vs Missouri), USC (+9.5 at Oregon)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MISSOURI-OKLAHOMA (o/u at 42.5), USC-OREGON (o/u at 59.5) 

CFB Ranked Team System #16: Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 93-74 SU & 101-64-2 ATS (61.2%) dating back to November of ’15.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+2.5 at GA Tech)

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play. 

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 85-115 ATS (42.5%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARKANSAS (+9.5 at Texas), LOUISVILLE (+3 at SMU)

* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 150-121 ATS (55.4%) surge since 2010.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): RUTGERS (+31.5 at Ohio St), NEBRASKA (+9.5 at Penn St) 

* Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 48-76 ATS (38.7%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): APPALACHIAN ST (+4.5 vs Marshall)

* AAC FAVORITES in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 114-16 SU & 74-50-6 (59.7%) ATS since 2015
System Match (PLAY): ARMY (-10 vs Tulsa), TULANE (-8.5 at Temple)

* UNDER the total is 69-47-1 (59.5%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LOUISVILLE-SMU (spread -2.5, total 52.5), CALIFORNIA-STANFORD (spread +3, total 46.5) 

* BIG 10 HOME FAVORITES in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone UNDER the total at a 40-19 (67.8%) rate since 2017
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NONE YET, BUT WATCH FOR – RUTGERS-OHIO ST (spread -31.5, total 55.5), MICHIGAN ST-IOWA (spread -16.5, total 42.5) 

* BIG 10 HOME UNDERDOGS of >= 11.5 points in weeks 11 or later in the season have gone OVER the total at a 22-8 (73.3%) rate since 2017
System Match (PLAY OVER): MICHIGAN-MARYLAND (spread +14, total 46.5) 

* UNDER the total is 55-33-1 (62.5%) in CONFERENCE USA expected-tight matchups (-3 to +2.5 line range) since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): LIBERTY-LOUISIANA TECH (spread +1.5, total 44.5), NEW MEXICO ST-UTEP (spread -3, total 45.5), JACKSONVILLE ST-FIU (spread +1.5, total 56.5)

* MOUNTAIN WEST HOME FAVORITES of a touchdown or less (-0.5 to -7) with a total of >=60.5 have seen the total go UNDER at a 19-7 (73.1%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HAWAII-UNLV (spread -3, total 64.5)

* SUN BELT ROAD FAVORITES in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 68-29 SU & 58-39 (59.8%) ATS since 2015
System Match (PLAY): MARSHALL (-4.5 at App State)

* SUN BELT NON-SATURDAY games have gone UNDER the total at a 53-28-1 (65.4%) rate since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LA LAFAYETTE-ARKANSAS ST (total 53.5) 

* SUN BELT SMALL HOME FAVORITES/PICK ‘EMS in the PK to -5.5 line range and totals within the 52.5-65 range have had these totals go UNDER at a 43-19 (69.4%) rate since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LA LAFAYETTE-ARKANSAS ST (spread -3, total 53.5)

Negative FADE trends:

•  UCF has lost 13 of its L15 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trend Match (FADE): UCF (-14 vs Oklahoma St) 

• STANFORD is 4-14 ATS in its L18 conference games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): STANFORD (+3 vs California) 

• TEMPLE is 6-15 ATS in its L21 conference games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): TEMPLE (+8.5 vs Tulane) 

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• SAN JOSE ST is on an 11-2 ATS surge as a double-digit conference underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN JOSE ST (+12.5 at San Diego St) 

• GEORGIA ST is on a solid road Sun Belt run of 15-6 ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA ST (+10.5 at Troy)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best & worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. REVENGE is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only. 

Best College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)
* KENTUCKY is 17-23 SU & 24-16 ATS (60%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (+9.5 at Vanderbilt) 

* TULSA is 11-25 SU but 21-14 ATS (60%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (+10 at Army)

College football Revenge Systems

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 116-129 ATS (47.3%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TCU (+1.5 at Houston), KENTUCKY (+9.5 at Vanderbilt)

Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 114-21 SU & 85-45-5 ATS (65.4%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): SOUTHERN MISS (-1.5 at South Alabama)

Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems 

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 151-190-1 ATS (44.3%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HAWAII (+3 at UNLV), NEVADA (+6.5 at Wyoming), SAN JOSE ST (+12.5 at SDSU) 

Not taking advantage enough of turnovers can be a red flag
CFB FBS teams that benefitted from a +5 turnover differential or greater but failed to score 44+ points in that game have responded by going just 39-58 ATS (40.2%) in their next contest since ’12.
System Match (FADE): NORTHWESTERN (-3.5 vs Minnesota) 

Playing well offensively but losing a good sign for next outing
College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 61-45-2 ATS (57.5%) over the last 12 years.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BAYLOR (+6.5 at Arizona), AUBURN (vs Mercer)

Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum builders
Over the last twelve years, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 84-59 ATS (58.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA (-7.5 vs Missouri), ARMY (-10 vs Tulsa), RICE (+18.5 vs North Texas)

Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the ’25 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the HANDLE was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO, AKRON, LA LAFAYETTE, HAWAII, OHIO ST, SMU, MINNESOTA, CHARLOTTE, JAMES MADISON, KENNESAW ST, UTEP, SAM HOUSTON ST, LOUISIANA TECH, IOWA, UTSA, NOTRE DAME, TEMPLE, TCU, UTAH, TROY, NEW MEXICO, FLORIDA, BYU, ARIZONA ST, WASHINGTON, FRESNO ST 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of BETS were on the HOME side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, and in 2024 it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KENNESAW ST, TROY, GEORGIA TECH, SAN DIEGO ST

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in ’24, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WESTERN MICHIGAN, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, FLORIDA ST, MIAMI (FL), OLD DOMINION, UCONN, SOUTH FLORIDA, DUKE, SOUTHERN MISS, NEW MEXICO, CALIFORNIA, ILLINOIS, NORTH TEXAS, BYU, ARIZONA ST, WASHINGTON 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the HANDLE has been on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): AKRON, LA LAFAYETTE, HAWAII, TULSA, KANSAS, MINNESOTA, CHARLOTTE, SAM HOUSTON ST, TCU, COASTAL CAROLINA, COLORADO ST 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of NUMBER of BETS has backed ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4, actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): AKRON, LOUISVILLE, BALL ST, SAM HOUSTON ST 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of NUMBER of BETS has backed a team in an ATS wager in NON-SATURDAY games, their 2022-24 seasons record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO, AKRON, WESTERN MICHIGAN, MIAMI (OH), CENTRAL MICHIGAN, ARKANSAS ST, FLORIDA ST, UNLV 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority HANDLE bettors have been very good when getting behind huge HOME favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO, OHIO ST, TOLEDO, NOTRE DAME 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the ’22 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority HANDLE bettors favored the UNDER, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2364 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): FLORIDA ST-NC STATE, BAYLOR-ARIZONA, UCONN-FLORIDA ATLANTIC, EAST CAROLINA-UTSA, PITTSBURGH-GEORGIA TECH 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority HANDLE bettors siding with the UNDER have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting UNDERS, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MINNESOTA-NORTHWESTERN, BALL ST-TOLEDO, NEW MEXICO ST-WYOMING, SAN JOSE ST-SAN DIEGO ST 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of BETS bettors bucking the low total and siding with the OVER have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of BETS has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIAMI (OH)-BUFFALO, MISSOURI-OKLAHOMA, MINNESOTA-NORTHWESTERN, WASHINGTON ST-JAMES MADISON, NEVADA-WYOMING, NEW MEXICO ST-WYOMING, LIBERTY-LOUISIANA TECH, NEBRASKA-PENN ST, COLORADO ST-BOISE ST, ILLINOIS-WISCONSIN

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LOUISIANA TECH +1.5 (+6.8)
2. AIR FORCE +3.5 (+4.5)
3. UMASS +34.5 (+2.9)
4. SAM HOUSTON ST +7 (+2.8)
5. GEORGIA SOUTHERN +12.5 (+2.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GEORGIA -43.5 (+8.1)
2. UCF -14 (+5.1)
3. WAKE FOREST -17.5 (+4.5)
4. OKLAHOMA -7.5 (+3.8)
5. WYOMING -6.5 (+3.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. RICE +18.5 (+7.0)
2. DELAWARE +17.5 (+5.0)
3. UAB +21.5 (+3.6)
4. TEMPLE +8.5 (+3.4)
5. COLORADO +7 (+3.2) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GEORGIA -43.5 (+8.7)
2. UTAH -17.5 (+7.3)
3. MIAMI (FL) -17.5 (+5.2)
4. TOLEDO -27.5 (+3.3)
5. TEXAS -8.5 (+3.2) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI OH-BUFFALO OVER 40.5 (+4.8)
2. NEW MEXICO ST-UTEP OVER 45.5 (+3.4)
3. KANSAS ST-UTAH OVER 52.5 (+2.4)
4. COLORADO ST-BOISE ST OVER 44.5 (+2.3)
5. WASHINGTON ST-JAMES MADISON OVER 42.5 (+2.2) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HAWAII-UNLV UNDER 54.5 (-3.5)
2(tie). CENTRAL MICHIGAN-KENT ST UNDER 49.5 (-3.2)
JACKSONVILLE ST-FIU UNDER 56.5 (-3.2)
4. EAST CAROLINA-UTSA UNDER 62.5 (-2.8)
5. BAYLOR-ARIZONA UNDER 62.5 (-2.7) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TCU +1.5 (+10.0)
2. UMASS +34.5 (+9.0)
3. KANSAS ST +17.5 (+8.7)
4. COLORADO +7 (+6.7)
5. GEORGIA SOUTHERN +12.5 (+6.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UCF -14 (+8.8)
2. WYOMING -6.5 (+6.7)
3. BOWLING GREEN -2.5 (+5.7)
4. UNLV -3 (+5.6)
5. TROY -10.5 (+5.2) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LIBERTY-LOUISIANA TECH OVER 44.5 (+4.1)
2. NORTH TEXAS-RICE OVER 55.5 (+3.7)
3. NEW MEXICO ST-UTEP OVER 45.5 (+3.4)
4. UTAH ST-FRESNO ST OVER 50.5 (+3.3)
5. WASHINGTON-UCLA OVER 51.5 (+2.9) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MISSOURI ST-KENNESAW ST UNDER 57.5 (-4.9)
2. HAWAII-UNLV UNDER 64.5 (-4.4)
3. AKRON-BOWLING GREEN UNDER 47.5 (-3.4)
4. DELAWARE-WAKE FOREST UNDER 52.5 (-3.2)
5. CHARLOTTE-GEORGIA UNDER 53.5 (-2.9)

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* ALABAMA is on a 30-10 ATS (75%) surge at Home
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (vs Eastern Illinois) 

* BALL STATE is 41-25-1 (62.1%) UNDER the total over L5 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BALL ST-TOLEDO (o/u at 47.5) 

* BOISE STATE is on a 13-4 (76.5%) ATS run following a SU loss
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE ST (-16.5 vs Colorado St) 

* BUFFALO is 23-14-1 (62.2%) ATS at Home since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+1.5 vs Miami OH) 

* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 7-14 ATS (33.3%) as a Favorite in L3 seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-8.5 at Kent St) 

* CINCINNATI is 6-15 ATS (28.6%) as an Underdog in L4 seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+2.5 vs BYU) 

* FLA INTERNATIONAL is 17-31 (35.4%) in Conference games over L6 seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLA INTERNATIONAL (+1.5 vs Jacksonville St) 

* FLORIDA ST is 11-24 (31.4%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’19
* FLORIDA ST is 13-26 (33.3%) ATS in Conference games since ’21
Trends Match (FADE): FLORIDA ST (-4.5 at NC State) 

* UTAH ST is 6-17 ATS (26.1%) in Road/Neutral games over L3 seasons
* FRESNO ST is 38-23-1 (62.3%) UNDER the total since ’21
* FRESNO ST is 24-14 (63.2%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’21
Trends Match: PLAY FRESNO ST (-3 vs Utah St), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 50.5) 

* GEORGIA ST is 21-13-1 (61.8%) ATS in L35 Road/Neutral games
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA ST (+10.5 at Troy) 

* GEORGIA TECH is 12-25-1 ATS (32.4%) as a Favorite since ‘18
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA TECH (-2.5 vs Pitt) 

* ILLINOIS is 17-6 ATS (73.9%) in Road games since ‘21
Trend Match (PLAY): ILLINOIS (-7.5 at Wisconsin) 

* JAMES MADISON is 30-16 (65.2%) ATS as Favorite since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-14 vs Washington St) 

* KANSAS is 17-5 to the OVER (77.3%) as a Road/Neutral underdog since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KANSAS-IOWA ST (o/u at 55.5) 

* KENT ST is 14-27 (34.1%) ATS in L41 games as an Underdog
Trend Match (FADE): KENT ST (+8.5 vs Central Michigan) 

* LA LAFAYETTE is 16-4-1 ATS (80%) as a conference underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAFAYETTE (+3 at Arkansas St) 

* LOUISIANA TECH is 14-23 (37.8%) ATS in Conference games over L4 seasons
* LIBERTY is 26-10 (72.2%) ATS as Underdog since ’14
* LOUISIANA TECH is 39-30-1 (56.5%) OVER the total since ‘19
Trends Match: PLAY LIBERTY (+1.5 at LA Tech), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 44.5) 

* MIAMI (OH) is on a 40-26-1 (60.6%) UNDER the total run over L5 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIAMI OH-BUFFALO (o/u at 39.5) 

* MICHIGAN is 20-11 (64.5%) ATS in Road/Neutral games in L4 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (-14 at Maryland) 

* MISSOURI is 11-3 ATS (78.6%) in Road/Neutral games in L2 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSOURI (+7.5 at Oklahoma)

* NEW MEXICO is 22-45 (32.8%) ATS in Conference games since ’17
* NEW MEXICO is 8-21 (27.6%) ATS as Favorite since ’18
* NEW MEXICO is 23-11 (67.6%) OVER the total in L2 seasons
Trends Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (-3.5 at Air Force), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 55.5) 

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 6-23-2 (20.7%) ATS in L31 Home games
Trend Match (FADE): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+7 vs Western Michigan) 

* NORTHWESTERN is 33-12 to the UNDER (73.3%) as a Home Favorite since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MINNESOTA-NORTHWESTERN (o/u at 40.5) 

* OHIO U is 26-13 ATS (66.7%) in Conference games over L4 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (-33.5 vs UMass)

* PENN ST is 35-22 (61.4%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN ST (-9.5 vs Nebraska) 

* PITTSBURGH is 46-26 (63.8%) OVER the total since 2020
* PITTSBURGH is 2-9 ATS (18.2%) in L11 games as a Road Underdog
Trends Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+2.5 at GA Tech), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 61.5) 

* SOUTH ALABAMA is 18-39 (31.6%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’14
Trend Match (FADE): SOUTH ALABAMA (+1.5 vs Southern Miss) 

* SAN DIEGO ST is 51-29 (63.8%) UNDER the total since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SJSU-SDSU (o/u at 49.5) 

* SOUTH CAROLINA is 16-9 (64%) ATS as a Favorite in L5 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-24.5 vs Coastal Carolina) 

* SOUTH FLORIDA is 10-1 to the OVER (90.9%) in L11 games as a Road Favorite
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SOUTH FLORIDA-UAB (o/u at 69.5) 

* STANFORD is 8-20-1 (28.6%) ATS in L29 Home games
* STANFORD is 13-31 ATS (29.5%) following up an outright loss since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): STANFORD (+3 vs California) 

* TULANE is 51-28-1 (64.6%) ATS as Favorite since ’14
* TEMPLE is 23-11 (67.6%) ATS coming off SU Loss since ’20
Trends Match: 1 PLAY of TULANE, 1 PLAY of TEMPLE (spread Temple +8.5) 

* TULSA is 26-15-1 (63.4%) ATS in Road/Neutral games over L5 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (+10 at Army) 

* UAB is 22-12 (64.7%) ATS at Home since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): UAB (+21.5 vs South Florida) 

* UNLV is on a 22-11 (66.7%) ATS run following a SU win
Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (-3 vs Hawaii) 

* USC is 33-17 ATS (66%) OVER the total in the L3 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): USC-OREGON (o/u at 59.5) 

* UTEP is 9-24 (27.3%) ATS at Home since ’20
Trend Match (FADE): UTEP (-3 vs New Mexico St) 

* VANDERBILT is on a 10-15 (40%) ATS skid following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): VANDERBILT (-9.5 vs Kentucky) 

* WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS (9.1%) in road/neutral games & 3-9 (25%) following outright wins since 2024
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-10.5 at UCLA) 

* WESTERN KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS (0%) as a double-digit underdog since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): WESTERN KENTUCKY (+22.5 at LSU)

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action: 

Week 13

(107) MIAMI (OH) at (108) BUFFALO
* FAVORITES are on runs of 23-1 SU & 13-2-1 ATS in h2h matchups between Miami OH and Buffalo
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI OH (-1.5 at Buffalo) 

(109) CENTRAL MICHIGAN at (110) KENT ST
* OVER the total is 6-0 in CMU-KSU h2h MAC series since 2007
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CENTRAL MICHIGAN-KENT ST (o/u at 49.5) 

(113) LA LAFAYETTE at (114) ARKANSAS ST
* HOME TEAMS are on 9-2 SU & ATS surge in ASU-ULL Sun Belt rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): ARKANSAS ST (-3 vs LA Lafayette)

(115) FLORIDA ST at (116) NC STATE
* UNDER the total is 7-1 in L8 of FSU-NCST h2h series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): FLORIDA ST-NC STATE (o/u at 61.5) 

(137) TENNESSEE at (138) FLORIDA
* FLORIDA is on 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS versus Tennessee
Trend Match (PLAY): FLORIDA (+4 vs Tennessee) 

(145) DUKE at (146) NORTH CAROLINA
* UNDERDOGS are 9-3-1 ATS in L13 of Duke-UNC rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTH CAROLINA (+6.5 vs Duke) 

(147) BALL ST at (148) TOLEDO
* BALL ST is 8-1 ATS in L9 visits to Toledo
Trend Match (PLAY): BALL ST (+27.5 at Toledo)

* UNDER the total is 10-2 in L12 of BALL ST-TOLEDO h2h series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BALL ST-TOLEDO (o/u at 47.5) 

(165) ARIZONA ST at (166) COLORADO
* HOME TEAMS are 8-1-1 ATS in ASU-COL h2h series since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+7 vs Arizona St) 

(171) CALIFORNIA at (172) STANFORD
* ROAD TEAMS are 12-3-1 ATS in L16 of Stanford-Cal rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (-3 at Stanford) 

(177) SAN JOSE ST at (178) SAN DIEGO ST
* UNDER the total is 8-2 in L10 SJSU-SDSU h2h matchups
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAN JOSE ST-SAN DIEGO ST (o/u at 49.5) 

(191) ILLINOIS at (192) WISCONSIN
* OVER the total is 7-1 in L8 of ILL-WISC h2h series in Madison
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ILLINOIS-WISCONSIN (o/u at 40.5) 

(199) LA MONROE at (200) TEXAS ST
* ROAD TEAMS are 11-2 ATS in ULM-TSU h2h series since 2000
Trend Match (PLAY): LA MONROE (+17.5 at Texas St)

(207) KENTUCKY at (208) VANDERBILT
* ROAD TEAMS are 7-1 ATS in L8 of UK-Vandy h2h series
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (+9.5 at Vanderbilt) 

(219) NEW MEXICO at (220) AIR FORCE
* OVER the total is 10-1 in L11 of the Air Force-New Mexico series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NEW MEXICO-AIR FORCE (o/u at 55.5) 

(203) MICHIGAN ST at (204) IOWA
* OVER the total is 7-1 in L8 of MSU-IOWA h2h series in Iowa City
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MICHIGAN ST-IOWA (o/u at 42.5)

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