The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 15, plus the Navy-Army game in Week 16. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top college football betting trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Group of 5 conference title game neutral-field dogs are 12-14 SU but 18-7-1 ATS (72%) in their last 26 tries, including 15-4-1 ATS on lines of three points or more.
System Match (PLAY): OHIO (+2.5 vs Miami OH)

* WESTERN KENTUCKY is on a 13-2 ATS surge in conference play when coming off a win at home.
Trend Match (PLAY): WESTERN KENTUCKY (+3.5 at Jacksonville State)

* Conference title game totals of less than 50 have gone Over at a 23-12 (65.7%) rate since 2003. However, please note that all four games qualifying in 2023 went Under.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TULANE-ARMY (o/u at 45.5), OHIO-MIAMI OH (o/u at 44.5), GEORGIA-TEXAS (o/u at 49.5), PENN STATE-OREGON (o/u at 49.5)

* IOWA STATE is 16-7 (69.6%) ATS as Underdog since 2021.
Trend Match (PLAY): IOWA STATE (+2 vs ASU)

* When home teams are better ranked in the AP poll when facing another ranked opponent and are only single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 55-19 SU and 48-23-3 ATS (67.6%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-4 vs UNLV)

* Under the total is 16-1-1 in the last 18 of Navy-Army rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 38.5)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections: MARSHALL +5.5 at Louisiana (+3.8 difference)

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2024 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Tuesday afternoon. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

Here are the systems with updated language and records (from midway through this season) we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%), although a slight improvement at 34-36 ATS in 2024. This angle has produced at around a 46% consistently since first discovered, so I would expect an end-of-season slowdown. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI OH, TEXAS, LOUISIANA, SMU, OREGON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of BETS were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 231-251 ATS (47.9%). In 2022 it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. This year it is actually 67-63 ATS, so I would expect this to cool down over the rest of the season. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA STATE, OREGON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 219-241 ATS (47.6%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2023 and again in 2024 so far, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Match (FADE): TULANE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 177-167 ATS (51.5%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of majority handle can pay off.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UNLV

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 62.5%! This year it’s just 18-25 ATS, dropping the overall system mark to 168-115 ATS (59.4%). Still, it goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE STATE, TULANE, BOISE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS game for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 405-444 ATS (47.7%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, LOUISIANA, SMU, OREGON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 52. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 57-44 (56.4%). This remains pretty rare, as it occurred in only 12 of 406 games this season.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WESTERN KENTUCKY-JACKSONVILLE STATE, UNLV-BOISE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 26-15 (63.4%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OHIO-MIAMI OH

CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a slight majority number of money line bets on a team (51-60%), bettors boast a respectable 26-19 SU (57.7%) record for +5.37 units of profit and an ROI of 11.9%. This has happened in only about one of every 10 games on average, so it is rare.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS ML

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following college football betting trends are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

* NAVY is 16-24 SU and 26-14 ATS (65%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (PLAY): NAVY (+3.5 vs Army)

College Football Revenge Systems

Neutral-field underdogs are great in revenge
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 48-30 ATS (61.5%).
System Match (PLAY): OHIO (+2.5 vs. Miami OH)

Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter
Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 691-603 ATS (53.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNLV, OHIO, TEXAS

College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting trend systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 — Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 191-94 SU and 164-113-8 ATS (59.2%).
System Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-4 vs. UNLV)

Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 110-22 SU and 80-48-4 ATS (62.5%).
System Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-4 vs. UNLV)

Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 55-19 SU and 48-23-3 ATS (67.6%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-4 vs. UNLV)

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #3 — Home ranked teams vs. non-ranked visitors
In games Week 12 or later, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 115-14 SU but just 53-70-2 ATS (43.1%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 39-8 SU and 30-17 ATS (63.8%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): ARMY (+5 vs. Tulane)

Conference Championship Game Betting Systems

In looking back at all of the conference championship game logs since their inception in 1992, I was able to come up with the following five betting systems that have developed (only three qualify this year, however):

Group of 5 conference title game neutral-field dogs are 12-14 SU but 18-7-1 ATS (72%) in their last 26 tries, including 15-4-1 ATS on lines of three points or more.
System Match (PLAY): OHIO (+2.5 vs. Miami OH)

Power 5 conference title game neutral-field favorites are on a 27-6 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA STATE (-2 vs. Iowa State), TEXAS (-2.5 vs. Georgia), SMU (-2.5 vs. Clemson), OREGON (-3.5 vs. Penn State)

Conference title game totals of less than 50 have gone Over at a 23-12 (65.7%) rate since ’03. However, please note that all four games qualifying in 2023 went Under.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TULANE-ARMY (o/u at 45.5), OHIO-MIAMI OH (o/u at 44.5), GEORGIA-TEXAS (o/u at 49.5), PENN STATE-OREGON (o/u at 49.5)

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top college football betting trends and systems for conference play.

Positive FOLLOW trend:

• WESTERN KENTUCKY is on a 13-2 ATS surge in conference play when coming off a win at home
System Match (PLAY): WESTERN KENTUCKY (+3.5 at Jacksonville State)

Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems 

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS NEXT GAME SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following college football betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MARSHALL +5.5 (+4.3)
2. PENN STATE +3.5 (+1.2)
3. ARMY +6 (+1.0)

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI OH -2.5 (+0.5)
2. SMU -2.5 (+0.4)
3. BOISE STATE -4 (+0.3)

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MARSHALL +5.5 (+3.8)
2. PENN STATE +3.5 (+2.6)
3. IOWA STATE +2 (+1.0)

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SMU -2.5 (+1.7)
2. ARMY -3.5 vs. Navy (+1.2)
3. TEXAS -2.5 (+0.5)

This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PENN STATE-OREGON OVER 49.5 (+3.8)
2. TULANE-ARMY OVER 45.5 (+1.4)
3. CLEMSON-SMU OVER 57 (+0.7)

This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MARSHALL-LOUISIANA UNDER 56.5 (-3.2)
2. GEORGIA-TEXAS UNDER 49.5 (-2.0)
3. UNLV-BOISE ST UNDER 58 (-0.9)

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PENN STATE +3.5 (+5.6)
2. GEORGIA +2.5 (+5.4)
3. IOWA STATE +2 (+4.4)

This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOISE STATE -4 (+5.6)
2. ARMY -3.5 vs. Navy (+3.4)

This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TULANE-ARMY OVER 45.5 (+5.5)
2. WESTERN KENTUCKY-JACKSONVILLE STATE OVER 58 (+4.0)
3. PENN STATE-OREGON OVER 49.5 (+3.0)

This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEMSON-SMU UNDER 57 (-1.2)
2. IOWA STATE-ARIZONA STATE UNDER 51 (-0.7)
3. OHIO-MIAMI OH UNDER 44.5 (+0.5)

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* CLEMSON is 21-11 (65.6%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2020
System Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (+2.5 vs. SMU)

* GEORGIA is 22-13 (62.9%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2020
System Match (PLAY): GEORGIA (+2.5 vs. Texas)

* IOWA STATE is 16-7 (69.6%) ATS as underdog since 2021
System Match (PLAY): IOWA STATE (+2 vs. ASU)

* MIAMI OHIO is on a 34-20-1 (63%) UNDER the total run over the last five seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OHIO-MIAMI OH (o/u at 44.5)

* PENN STATE is 34-17 (66.7%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2019
System Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (+3.5 vs. Oregon)

* TULANE is 48-23 (67.6%) ATS as Favorite since 2014
System Match (PLAY): TULANE (-5 at Army)

* UNLV is on an 18-7 (72%) ATS run following a SU win
System Match (PLAY): UNLV (+4 at Boise State)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Week 15

(103) TULANE at (104) ARMY
TULANE has covered four straight ATS overall meetings with Army and four of the last five ATS when visiting West Point
Trend Match: PLAY TULANE (-5 at Army)

(107) UNLV at (108) BOISE STATE
ROAD TEAMS have covered six straight ATS in the UNLV-Boise State series
Trend Match: PLAY UNLV (+4 at Boise State)

Week 16

NAVY vs. ARMY
UNDER the total is 16-1-1 in the last 18 of the Navy-Army rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 38.5)

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