The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite and the total being higher than 56, Under the total boasts an impressive 22-7 (75.9%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SOUTH FLORIDA-MIAMI FL (o/u at 56.5)

* Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 42-67 SU and 38-67-4 ATS (36.2%) in the next game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+24.5 at Kentucky)

* SOUTH CAROLINA is on runs of 16-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS versus Vanderbilt
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-5.5 vs. Vandy)

* ARIZONA STATE is 15-3-1 (83.3%) to the Under in non-conference games since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEXAS STATE-ARIZONA STATE (o/u at 57.5)

* Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 45-74 ATS (37.8%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): KENT STATE (+22.5 vs. Buffalo)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen Power Ratings: LOUISIANA +27.5 at Missouri (projections have line at +20.9)

College Football Stability Score Plays for Week 3

Hopefully by now, you’re already familiar with the methodology I’ve used for the last 13 years or so regarding college football Stability Scores heading into the start of each season. I know Bill Adee has been effusive in sharing its details in the VSiN Newsletter for the last few years around this time. If you’re not, in a nutshell, what these scores are is a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability as compared to how they left us in the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies I employ every year to find value early. The thought behind it is that teams that are in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded. 

Steve keeps a handy chart on the Stability Scores of each FBS team and publishes them weekly for Weeks 0-3. He has found that a Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum on which he will consider a play for this thought process. Here are this week’s qualifying plays. (There is a separate article on VSiN that goes in-depth about these plays and scores.

Thursday, September 11, 2025

(105) NC STATE (-7) at (106) WAKE FOREST
Stability Advantage: NC STATE by 9

Friday, September 12, 2025

(111) NEW MEXICO at (112) UCLA (-16.5)
Stability Advantage: UCLA by 9

Saturday, September 13, 2025

(121) CENTRAL MICHIGAN at (122) MICHIGAN (-27.5)
Stability Advantage: MICHIGAN by 8

(133) PITTSBURGH (-7) at (134) WEST VIRGINIA
Stability Advantage: PITTSBURGH by 12

(135) WASHINGTON STATE at (136) NORTH TEXAS (-6)
Stability Advantage: NORTH TEXAS by 9

(139) USC (-21) at (140) PURDUE
Stability Advantage: USC by 13

(151) LIBERTY (-6.5) at (152) BOWLING GREEN
Stability Advantage: LIBERTY by 13

(161) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (162) ILLINOIS (-27.5)
Stability Advantage: ILLINOIS by 11

(163) JACKSONVILLE STATE at (164) GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-4)
Stability Advantage: GEORGIA SOUTHERN by 17

(179) MASSACHUSETTS at (180) IOWA (-35.5)
Stability Advantage: IOWA by 12

(181) NAVY (-14) at (182) TULSA
Stability Advantage: NAVY by 11

(189) AIR FORCE (-4) at (190) UTAH STATE
Stability Advantage: AIR FORCE by 8

(191) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (+8.5) at (192) NEVADA
Stability Advantage: MIDDLE TENNESEE STATE by 10

(193) TEXAS STATE at (194) ARIZONA STATE (-14.5)
Stability Advantage: ARIZONA STATE by 11

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on VSiN.com, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Dating to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NC STATE, ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, OREGON, BUFFALO, PITTSBURGH, NORTH TEXAS, TEXAS TECH, USC, MISSOURI, BOWLING GREEN, OHIO STATE, OLD DOMINION, EAST CAROLINA, DUKE, UTAH, UAB, BOSTON COLLEGE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MICHIGAN, AUBURN, TEXAS TECH, MISSOURI, OHIO STATE, ILLINOIS, UAB

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2024, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NC STATE, MEMPHIS, OKLAHOMA, OREGON, BUFFALO, CLEMSON, UCONN, GEORGIA, PITTSBURGH, USC, SMU, IOWA STATE, EAST CAROLINA, UTAH, AIR FORCE, BOSTON COLLEGE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW MEXICO, MIDDLE TENNESEE STATE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, OLD DOMINION, JACKSONVILLE STATE, ARKANSAS, UMASS, DUKE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW MEXICO, SOUTH FLORIDA, JACKSONVILLE STATE, UMASS

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 season record was 213-163 (56.6%). This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NC STATE, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MICHIGAN, MISSOURI, TEXAS, OHIO STATE, ILLINOIS

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE-NEVADA, FLORIDA-LSU, MINNESOTA-CALIFORNIA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in 2024 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): COLORADO-HOUSTON, CENTRAL MICHIGAN-MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN-ALABAMA, EASTERN MICHIGAN-KENTUCKY, NEW MEXICO STATE-LOUISIANA TECH, MINNESOTA-CALIFORNIA, BOSTON COLLEGE-STANFORD

College Football Game 2 Reactionary Systems

These systems take into account traits about a team’s season opener and how they affect their second game. 

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #1 — FCS letdown: Teams that faced a FBS foe in Game 1 and are favored by 30 points or more versus a FCS opponent for Game 2 have gone just 97-119-6 ATS (44.9%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): TCU (if they are favorites of 30+ vs. Abilene Christian)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

* WISCONSIN is 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): WISCONSIN (+21 at Alabama)

* LSU is 16-7 SU and 4-7 ATS (66.7%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (-7.5 vs. Florida)

* KENT STATE is 9-24 SU and 19-14 ATS (57.6%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): KENT STATE (+22.5 vs. Buffalo)

* SOUTH FLORIDA is 7-26 SU and 20-13 ATS (60.6%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): SOUTH FLORIDA (+17.5 at Miami FL)

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 109-122 ATS (47.2%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): LOUISIANA TECH (-10 vs. New Mexico State)

College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll. 

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 199-95 SU and 172-114-8 ATS (60.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE (+3.5 vs. Georgia), MIAMI FL (-17.5 vs. South Florida), NOTRE DAME (-7 vs. Texas A&M)

Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 115-23 SU and 85-49-4 ATS (63.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI FL (-17.5 vs. South Florida), NOTRE DAME (-7 vs. Texas A&M)

Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 59-20 SU & 52-24-3 ATS (68.4%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-7 vs. Texas A&M)

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than three points have struggled lately, 79-109 ATS (42%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE ALL): FLORIDA (+7.5 at LSU), BOSTON COLLEGE (-12.5 at Stanford)

* Road favorites of 30 points or more in conference games have struggled recently, 9-22 ATS (29%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): *WATCH FOR OREGON at Northwestern, -27.5 CURRENTLY*

* Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 45-74 ATS (37.8%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): KENT STATE (+22.5 vs. Buffalo)* In SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) and totals <= 51.5, Over the total is 18-4 (81.8%) since 2021
System Match (PLAY OVER): GEORGIA-TENNESSEE (*if spread falls into this line range, -3.5 currently*)

Negative FADE trends

• USC has lost 10 of its last 14 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trend Match (FADE): USC (-21 at Purdue)

• STANFORD is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 conference games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): STANFORD (+12.5 vs. Boston College)

Positive FOLLOW trends

• PURDUE has a respectable 12-5 ATS record in its last 17 games as a Big Ten dog of 20+ points
Trend Match (PLAY): PURDUE (-21 vs. USC)

• NAVY is on a 30-7 ATS run in conference games when coming off a home win
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-14 at Tulsa)

Extreme Stat Next-Game CFB Betting Systems

Huge week-to-week point spread movement
Teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up game since 2012, going 97-68 ATS (58.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEMPLE (+23.5 or more vs. Oklahoma), NORTHWESTERN (+27.5 vs. Oregon)

Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 42-67 SU and 38-67-4 ATS (36.2%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+22.5 at Kentucky)

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next game, going just 139-185-1 ATS (42.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (FADE): ALABAMA (-21 vs. Wisconsin)

Prolific offensive performances don’t last
FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 31-44 ATS (41.3%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): USC (-21 at Purdue)

Dismal offensive performances carry over
College football teams that gained 100 yards or fewer in a game have not bounced back well in the next, going just 24-35-1 ATS (40.7%) in their last 60 tries.
System Match (FADE): BALL STATE (vs. New Hampshire)

Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
In the last 12 years, teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 142-107 ATS (57%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON (-27.5 at Northwestern), NEBRASKA (vs. Houston Christian), ALABAMA (-21 vs. Wisconsin), OHIO STATE (-31.5 vs. Ohio), UTAH (-23.5 at Wyoming), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at Cal)

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LOUISIANA +27.5 (+6.6)
2. AKRON +12.5 (+6.5)
3. TULANE +1.5 (+5.1)
4. WYOMING +23.5 (+4.5)
5. WEST VIRGINIA +7 (+4.0)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KENTUCKY -22.5 (+5.8)
2. SOUTH CAROLINA -4.5 (+4.7)
3. OKLAHOMA -23.5 (+4.5)
4. OLE MISS -7.5 (+3.3)
5. MICHIGAN -27.5 (+3.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TENNESSEE +3.5 (+7.6)
2. LOUISIANA +27.5 (+7.5)
3. SOUTHERN MISS +2.5 (+6.6)
4. COLORADO +5.5 (+4.7)
5. AKRON +12.5 (+4.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TEXAS -41.5 (+8.0)
2. NAVY -14 (+7.9)
3. IOWA -35.5 (+7.8)
4. OHIO STATE -31.5 (+6.9)
5. IOWA STATE -21 (+4.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BUFFALO-KENT STATE OVER 48.5 (+6.4)
2. VANDERBILT-SOUTH CAROLINA OVER 48.5 (+3.8)
3 (tie). CENTRAL MICHIGAN-MICHGAN OVER 41.5 (+3.6)
MINNESOTA-CALIFORNIA OVER 43.5 (+3.6)
5. UMASS-IOWA OVER 42.5 (+3.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. JACKSONVILLE STATE-GEORGIA SOUTHERN UNDER 58.5 (-5.6)
2. TEXAS A&M-NOTRE DAME UNDER 49.5 (-4.4)
3. FLORIDA ATLANTIC-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNDER 58.5 (-4.1)
4. OLD DOMINION-VIRGINIA TECH UNDER 51.5 (-2.8)
5. NEW MEXICO-UCLA UNDER 52.5 (-2.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LOUISIANA +27.5 (+9.4)
2. TULANE +1.5 (+8.2)
3. AKRON +12.5 (+6.8)
4. WASHINGTON STATE +6 (+3.1)
5. WISCONSIN +21 (+3.0)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KENTUCKY -22.5 (+6.5)
2. OKLAHOMA -23.5 (+5.7)
3. SOUTH CAROLINA -4.5 (+4.9)
4 (tie). MEMPHIS -4 (+4.0)
OHIO STATE -31.5 (+4.0)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BUFFALO-KENT STATE OVER 48.5 (+7.5)
2. BOSTON COLLEGE-STANFORD OVER 44.5 (+7.4)
3. MIDDLE TENN STATE-NEVADA OVER 48.5 (+7.2)
4. MEMPHIS-TROY OVER 51.5 (+6.2)
5. GEORGIA-TENNESSEE OVER 49.5 (+5.9)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). FLORIDA ATLANTIC-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNDER 58.5 (-3.0)
JACKSONVILLE STATE-GEORGIA SOUTHERN UNDER 58.5 (-3.0)
3. PITTSBURGH-WEST VIRGINIA UNDER 57.5 (-2.4)
4. WISCONSIN-ALABAMA UNDER 46.5 (-2.2)
5. APPALACHIAN STATE-SOUTHERN MISS UNDER 54.5 (-2.1)

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* ALABAMA is on a 26-9 ATS (74.3%) surge at home
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-21 vs. Wisconsin)

* APPALACHIAN STATE is 7-23 ATS (23.3%) in its last 30 games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): APPALACHIAN STATE (-2.5 at Southern Miss)

* ARIZONA STATE is 15-3-1 (83.3%) to the Under in non-conference games since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEXAS STATE-ARIZONA STATE (o/u at 57.5)

* ARKANSAS is 4-15 (21.1%) ATS coming off a SU win since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): ARKANSAS (+7.5 at Ole Miss)

* BALL STATE is 36-22-1 (62.1%) Under the total over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NEW HAMPSHIRE-BALL STATE

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 26-13 (66.7%) ATS in conference games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (-12.5 at Stanford)

* BOWLING GREEN is 17-30 (36.2%) ATS as an underdog since 2019
* BOWLING GREEN is 8-15 (34.8%) ATS in non-conference games since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): BOWLING GREEN (+6.5 vs. Liberty)

* CALIFORNIA is 27-15 (64.3%) ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+2.5 vs. Minnesota)

* CHARLOTTE is 4-16 (20%) ATS in its last 20 home games
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (vs. Monmouth)

* CLEMSON is 22-12 (64.7%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-3.5 at Georgia Tech)

* DUKE is 32-17 (65.3%) ATS in non-conference games since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): DUKE (-1.5 at Tulane)

* E MICHIGAN is 39-19 (67.2%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+22.5 at Kentucky)

* FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 5-16 (23.8%) ATS in its last 21 games following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+2.5 at FIU)

* FRESNO STATE is 33-21-1 (61.1%) Under the total since 2021
* FRESNO STATE is 22-11 (66.7%) ATS coming off a SU win since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (vs. Southern), also PLAY UNDER the total in SOUTHERN-FRESNO STATE

* GEORGIA is 23-14 (62.2%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA (-3.5 at Tennessee)

* GEORGIA SOUTHERN is 19-7 (73.1%) ATS as a home favorite since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-4 vs. Jacksonville State)

* HAWAII is 12-26 (31.6%) ATS as a favorite since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): HAWAII (vs. Portland Satet)

* KANSAS STATE is 11-5 ATS (68.8%) following a SU loss in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (+1.5 at Arizona)

* KENT STATE is 10-24 (29.4%) ATS in its last 34 games as an underdog
Trend Match (FADE): KENT STATE (+22.5 vs. Buffalo)

* KENTUCKY is 20-7 (74.1%) ATS in non-conference games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (-22.5 vs. Eastern Michigan)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 36-25-1 (59%) Over the total since 2019
* LOUISIANA TECH is 11-20 (35.5%) ATS in conference games over the last four seasons
Trends Match: FADE LOUISIANA TECH (-10 vs. New Mexico State), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 42.5)

* LSU is 25-17 (59.5%) Over the total since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): Florida-LSU (o/u at 48.5)

* MARYLAND is 18-8 (69.2%) ATS in its last 26 non-conference games
Trend Match (PLAY): MARYLAND (vs. Towson)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 30-21 (58.8%) Under the total since 2021
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 17-12 (58.6%) ATS at home since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (vs. Alcorn State), also PLAY UNDER the total in ALCORN STATE-MISSISSIPPI STATE

* NAVY is 15-6 ATS (71.4%) following a SU win in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-14 at Tulsa)

* NEBRASKA is 6-14-2 (30%) ATS at home in its last 22
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (vs. Houston Christian)

* NEW MEXICO is 19-7 (73.1%) Over the total in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NEW MEXICO-UCLA (o/u at 52.5)

* NEW MEXICO STATE is 32-22 (59.3%) ATS in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO STATE (+10 at Louisiana Tech)

* NORTH CAROLINA is 2-8-1 (20%) ATS in the last 11 as a favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTH CAROLINA (vs. Richmond)

* OLE MISS is 9-21-2 (30%) ATS in conference games since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): OLE MISS (-7.5 vs. Arkansas)

* PENN STATE is 30-15 ATS (66.7%) as a favorite over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (vs. Villanova)

* PITTSBURGH is 41-23 (64.1%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PITT-WEST VIRGINIA (o/u at 57.5)

* PURDUE is 5-16 ATS (23.8%) at home over the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PURDUE (+21 vs. USC)

* RICE is 21-9 (70%) to the Over in non-conference games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PRAIRIE VIEW A&M-RICE

* RUTGERS has gone 15-4 (78.9%) ATS in its last 19 non-conference games
Trend Match (PLAY): RUTGERS (vs. Norfolk State)

* SOUTH CAROLINA is 15-8 (65.2%) ATS as a favorite in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-4.5 vs. Vanderbilt)

* STANFORD is 6-18-1 (25%) ATS in last 25 home games
* STANFORD is 10-29 ATS (25.6%) following an outright loss since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): STANFORD (+12.5 vs. Boston College)

* TENNESSEE is 5-14 (26.3%) ATS as an underdog since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+3.5 vs. Georgia)

* TEXAS A&M is 3-12 SU and 3-11-2 (21.4%) ATS on the road since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS A&M (+7 at Notre Dame)

* TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO is 9-15 (37.5%) ATS at home since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): UTSA (vs. Incarnate Word)

* UAB is 21-9 (70%) ATS at home since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): UAB (-12.5 vs. Akron)

* UCLA is 9-21 (30%) ATS in non-conference games since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): UCLA (-16.5 vs. New Mexico)

* USC is 30-12 ATS (71.4%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): USC (-21 at Purdue)

* UTEP is 10-25 ATS (28.6%) in non-conference games since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): UTEP (+41.5 at Texas)

* VANDERBILT is on a 6-13 (31.6%) ATS skid following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): VANDERBILT (+4.5 at South Carolina)

* VIRGINIA TECH is 6-21 ATS (22.2%) in non-conference games since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): VIRGINIA TECH (-7.5 vs. Old Dominion)

* WEST VIRGINIA has gone 19-11 ATS (63.3%) at home in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (+7 vs. Pitt)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Week 3

(105) NC STATE at (106) WAKE FOREST
* Favorites have covered five straight in the series in Winston-Salem
Trend Match (PLAY): NC STATE (-7 at Wake Forest)

(119) BUFFALO at (120) KENT STATE
* Favorites are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-22.5 at Kent State)

(123) CLEMSON at (124) GEORGIA TECH
* CLEMSON is on a 12-0 SU and 9-2-1 ATS surge versus Georgia Tech
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-3.5 at Georgia Tech)

(131) GEORGIA at (132) TENNESSEE
* GEORGIA is on an 8-1 SU and ATS run vs. Tennessee
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA (-3.5 at Tennessee)

(133) PITTSBURGH at (134) WEST VIRGINIA
* Underdogs are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Backyard Brawl series
Trend Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (+7 vs. Pitt)

(149) SOUTH FLORIDA at (150) MIAMI FL
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH FLORIDA (+17.5 at Miami FL)

(153) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (154) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
* FAU is 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven of this rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+2.5 at FIU)

(165) ARKANSAS at (166) OLE MISS
* ARKANSAS is on a 10-2 ATS run overall versus Mississippi
Trend Match (PLAY): ARKANSAS (+7.5 at Ole Miss)

(167) VANDERBILT at (168) SOUTH CAROLINA
* SOUTH CAROLINA is on runs of 16-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS versus Vanderbilt
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-4.5 vs. Vandy)

(181) NAVY at (182) TULSA
* NAVY is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five visits to Tulsa
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-14 at Tulsa)

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