Week 4 College Football Betting Trends:
The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 4. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
AJ’s Angles
* In games featuring two AP-ranked teams, when the home team is ranked higher and is a single-digit favorite or underdog, they have gone 59-21 SU and 52-25-3 ATS (67.5%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH (-3 vs. Texas Tech), OKLAHOMA (-6.5 vs. Auburn)
* Big Ten conference game road favorites of -4 or less have gone 23-9 SU and 21-11 ATS (65.6%) since 2021
System Matches (PLAY ALL): IOWA (-2.5 at Rutgers), MICHIGAN (-2.5 at Nebraska)
* COLORADO is 9-1 ATS (90%) following a SU loss in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (-13.5 vs. Wyoming)
* UNLV is 26-7 (78.7%) ATS in non-conference games since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (-2.5 at Miami OH)
* Under the total is 9-2 in Syracuse-Clemson series since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SYRACUSE-CLEMSON (o/u at 55.5)
* Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 221-176 ATS (55.7%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TULSA (+12.5 at Oklahoma State), VANDERBILT (-26.5 vs. Georgia State)
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen Power Ratings: GEORGIA TECH -23.5 vs. Temple (projections have line at -30.4)
Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on VSiN.com, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Dating to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons, and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NORTH TEXAS, TENNESSEE, EASTERN MICHIGAN, UCF, FLORIDA STATE, WESTERN MICHIGAN, OKLAHOMA, UCONN, JAMES MADISON, DUKE, KANSAS, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, SOUTH ALABAMA, MISSOURI, WESTERN KENTUCKY, BOISE STATE, EAST CAROLINA, BAYLOR, WASHINGTON, UTEP, UTSA, WYOMING, CALIFORNIA, USC
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, and in 2024 it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits number of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, FLORIDA STATE, OKLAHOMA, JAMES MADISON, GEORGIA TECH, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, WESTERN KENTUCKY, BOISE STATE, MIAMI FL, WASHINGTON, VANDERBILT, UTEP
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in ’24, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): RICE, NORTH TEXAS, ARKANSAS, MICHIGAN, JAMES MADISON, ARKANSAS STATE, BOISE STATE, WASHINGTON, UTSA, CALIFORNIA, FRESNO STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TULSA, SYRACUSE, TEXAS TECH, TULANE, PURDUE, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WYOMING
CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SYRACUSE, MARYLAND, TEXAS TECH, TROY, ILLINOIS
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 record was 213-163 (56.6%). This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): RICE, IOWA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, OREGON, FLORIDA STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UNLV-MIAMI OH, TROY-BUFFALO, LOUISIANA MONROE-UTEP, CALIFORNIA-SAN DIEGO STATE, FRESNO STATE-HAWAII
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MARYLAND-WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN-NEBRASKA, MARSHALL-MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE, WYOMING-COLORADO
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
Best College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)
* FRESNO STATE is 14-12 SU and 17-7 ATS (70.8%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): FRESNO STATE (-2.5 at Hawaii)
* TULSA is 10-22 SU and 18-13 ATS (58.1%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): TULSA (+12.5 at Oklahoma State)
* OREGON STATE is 17-31 SU and 28-19 ATS (59.6%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): OREGON STATE (+35.5 at Oregon)
College Football Revenge Systems
Home/road revenge line range angles that have thrived
Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 51-41 ATS (55.4%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-19.5 at Washington State)
Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 110-122 ATS (47.4%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): FRESNO STATE (-2.5 at Hawaii)
Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 221-176 ATS (55.7%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TULSA (+12.5 at Oklahoma State), VANDERBILT (-26.5 vs. Georgia State)
College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings
The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll.
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 200-97 SU and 174-115-8 ATS (60.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH (-3 vs. Texas Tech), OKLAHOMA (-6.5 vs. Auburn), INDIANA (-4.5 vs. Illinois)
Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 116-24 SU and 86-50-4 ATS (63.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH (-3 vs. Texas Tech), OKLAHOMA (-6.5 vs. Auburn)
Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 59-21 SU and 52-25-3 ATS (67.5%) since ’17.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH (-3 vs. Texas Tech), OKLAHOMA (-6.5 vs. Auburn)
College Football Conference Play Systems and Trends
These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.
* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than three points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 28-47 ATS (37.3%) since 2010.
System Matches (FADE ALL): *WATCH FOR ARMY vs. North Texas, +2.5 currently*
* Big Ten conference game road favorites of -4 or less have gone 23-9 SU and 21-11 ATS (65.6%) since 2021
System Matches (PLAY ALL): IOWA (-2.5 at Rutgers), MICHIGAN (-2.5 at Nebraska)
* Big Ten conference game home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone Under the total at a 36-13 (73.5%) rate since 2017
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MICHIGAN STATE-USC (*if USC falls into this line range + total is <= 56, -17.5 spread and 56.5 total currently*)
Top Team Trends in Conference Games
Negative FADE trends:
• USC has not handled outright road wins well, going 0-8 ATS in the next game if against conference opponents
• USC has lost 11 of its last 15 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trends Match (FADE): USC (-17.5 vs. Michigan State)
• RUTGERS is on a 2-10 ATS skid as a Big Ten home underdog
Trend Match (FADE): RUTGERS (+2.5 vs. Iowa)
Positive FOLLOW trend:
• MICHIGAN is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games vs. Big Ten foes when coming off a home win
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (-2.5 at Nebraska)
Extreme Stat Next-Game CFB Betting Systems
Huge week-to-week point spread movement
Teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up game since 2012, going 98-69 ATS (58.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SYRACUSE (+15.5 or more at Clemson), UAB (+39.5 or more at Tennessee), GEORGIA STATE (+20.5 or more at Vanderbilt)
*WATCH FOR NEBRASKA vs. Michigan, QUALIFIES IF +3.5 OR MORE*
Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next game, going just 140-185-1 ATS (43.1%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LOUISIANA-MONROE (+5.5 at UTEP), NORTH TEXAS (-2.5 at Army), WASHINGTON STATE (+19.5 vs. Washington)
Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
In the last 12 years, teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 145-110 ATS (56.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UCF (-6.5 vs. North Carolina), FLORIDA STATE (-45.5 vs. Kent State), INDIANA (-4.5 vs. Illinois), MISSISSIPPI STATE (-21 vs. Northern Illinois), TOLEDO (-14 at Western Michigan)
This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WEST VIRGINIA +13.5 (+5.3)
2. SOUTH CAROLINA +11.5 (+4.6)
3. ARMY +2.5 (+4.0)
4. SMU +7 (+3.7)
5. LIBERTY +9.5 (+3.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GEORGIA TECH -23.5 (+6.9)
2. OLE MISS -11.5 (+5.8)
3. NOTRE DAME -24.5 (+3.9)
4 (tie). LOUISIANA -2.5 (+3.4)
VANDERBILT -26.5 (+3.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TULSA +12.5 (+19.2)
2. KENT STATE +45.5 (+16.5)
3. OREGON STATE +35.5 (+11.9)
4 (tie). SYRACUSE +17.5 (+8.8)
GEORGIA STATE +26.5 (+8.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TENNESSEE -39.5 (+6.6)
2 (tie). UCF -6.5 (+5.6)
UTEP -5.5 (+5.6)
4. VIRGINIA -15.5 (+4.5)
5. LOUISIANA TECH -3 (+2.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOISE STATE-AIR FORCE OVER 51.5 (+7.2)
2. LOUISIANA MONROE-UTEP OVER 47.5 (+6.3)
3. TROY-BUFFALO OVER 42.5 (+5.8)
4. SYRACUSE-CLEMSON OVER 55.5 (+5.6)
5. MICHIGAN-NEBRASKA OVER 46.5 (+3.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARKANSAS-MEMPHIS UNDER 62.5 (-6.6)
2. WYOMING-COLORADO UNDER 44.5 (-4.4)
3. ARKANSAS STATE-KENNESAW STATE UNDER 56.5 (-3.7)
4. UTSA-COLORADO STATE UNDER 59.5 (-3.6)
5. BYU-EAST CAROLINA UNDER 49.5 (-3.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. COASTAL CAROLINA +14.5 (+11.8)
2. SOUTH CAROLINA +11.5 (+9.0)
3. GEORGIA STATE +26.5 (+8.0)
4. LOUISIANA-MONROE +5.5 (+7.7)
5. LIBERTY +9.5 (+7.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. COLORADO -13.5 (+8.3)
2. NOTRE DAME -24.5 (+7.9)
3 (tie). GEORGIA TECH -23.5 (+4.7)
BYU -7 (+4.7)
5. CLEMSON -17.5 (+4.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NORTH TEXAS-ARMY OVER 50.5 (+8.4)
2. TROY-BUFFALO OVER 42.5 (+6.8)
3. NORTH CAROLINA-UCF OVER 47.5 (+6.5)
4. LOUISIANA MONROE-UTEP OVER 47.5 (+5.5)
5. IOWA-RUTGERS OVER 45.5 (+5.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PURDUE-NOTRE DAME UNDER 55.5 (-8.6)
2. ARKANSAS-MEMPHIS UNDER 62.5 (-4.3)
3. TULANE-OLE MISS UNDER 61.5 (-4.2)
4. FRESNO STATE-HAWAII UNDER 48.5 (-3.6)
5. DELAWARE-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNDER 55.5 (-2.8)
Comparing Effective Yards Per Play Ratings to This Week’s Point Spreads
The following are taken from an article posted on September 16, 2025, looking at how Steve Makinen comes up with his ratings and any edges in games each weekend. As far as actionable items, here are the top 15 games for this weekend, using the differential of EYPP ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences. Track these games to see how they fare, or back them already if you agree with the logic.
1. (361) MICHIGAN STATE at (362) USC
Actual Line: USC -16.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: USC -45.7
Difference: 29.2, Favors – USC
2. (319) UNLV at (320) MIAMI OHIO
Actual Line: MIAMI OHIO +3.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: MIAMI OHIO -24.9
Difference: 28.4, Favors – MIAMI OHIO
3. (305) TULSA at (306) OKLAHOMA STATE
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA STATE -12.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: OKLAHOMA STATE +15.7
Difference: 28.2, Favors – TULSA
4. (399) LOUISIANA-MONROE at (400) UTEP
Actual Line: UTEP -4
Effective Yards per Play Line: UTEP -25.6
Difference: 21.6, Favors – UTEP
5. (331) NC STATE at (332) DUKE
Actual Line: DUKE -2.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: DUKE -18.9
Difference: 16.4, Favors – DUKE
6. (309) NORTH TEXAS at (310) ARMY
Actual Line: ARMY -1.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: ARMY +13.1
Difference: 14.6, Favors – NORTH TEXAS
7. (307) IOWA at (308) RUTGERS
Actual Line: RUTGERS +2.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: RUTGERS +16.8
Difference: 14.3, Favors – IOWA
8. (317) NORTH CAROLINA at (318) UCF
Actual Line: UCF -6.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: UCF -20.7
Difference: 14.2, Favors – UCF
9. (325) BOWLING GREEN at (326) LOUISVILLE
Actual Line: LOUISVILLE -26.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: LOUISVILLE -40.8
Difference: 14.3, Favors – LOUISVILLE
10. (381) ARKANSAS STATE at (382) KENNESAW STATE
Actual Line: KENNESAW STATE +6.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: KENNESAW STATE -7.6
Difference: 14.1, Favors – KENNESAW STATE
11. (385) NEVADA at (386) WESTERN KENTUCKY
Actual Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY -10
Effective Yards per Play Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY +4.1
Difference: 14.1, Favors – NEVADA
12. (387) BOISE STATE at (388) AIR FORCE
Actual Line: AIR FORCE +9.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: AIR FORCE +22.4
Difference: 12.9, Favors – BOISE STATE
13. (347) WYOMING at (348) COLORADO
Actual Line: COLORADO -12.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: COLORADO +0.4
Difference: 12.9, Favors – WYOMING
14. (333) KENT STATE at (334) FLORIDA STATE
Actual Line: FLORIDA STATE -43.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: FLORIDA STATE -56.3
Difference: 12.8, Favors – FLORIDA STATE
15. (329) ILLINOIS at (330) INDIANA
Actual Line: INDIANA -4.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: INDIANA -16.4
Difference: 11.9, Favors – INDIANA
Top Team Situational College Football Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* AKRON is 15-30-1 (33.3%) ATS at home since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): AKRON (vs. Duquesne)
* ARIZONA STATE is 27-15-1 (64.3%) ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA STATE (+2.5 at Baylor)
* BALL STATE is 36-23-1 (61%) UNDER the total over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BALL STATE-UCONN (o/u at 52.5)
* BOWLING GREEN is 18-30 (37.5%) ATS as an underdog since 2019
* BOWLING GREEN is 9-15 (37.5%) ATS in non-conference games since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): BOWLING GREEN (+26.5 at Louisville)
* BUFFALO is 23-11 (67.6%) ATS at home since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-5.5 vs. Troy)
* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 3-13 ATS (18.8%) as a favorite in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (vs. Wagner)
* CHARLOTTE is 5-16 (23.8%) ATS in its last 21 home games
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+2.5 vs. Rice)
* CLEMSON is 12-5 (70.6%) ATS in its last 17 after a SU loss
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-17.5 vs. Syracuse)
* COLORADO is 9-1 ATS (90%) following up a SU loss in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (-13.5 vs. Wyoming)
* COLORADO STATE is 14-5-1 to the Under in home games since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTSA-COLORADO STATE (o/u at 59.5)
* FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL is 15-28 (34.9%) in conference games over the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-6 vs. Delaware)
* FLORIDA is 9-17-1 (34.6%) ATS in non-conference games in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA (+7.5 at Miami FL)
* FRESNO STATE is 33-22-1 (60%) Under the total since 2021
* FRESNO STATE is 23-11 (67.6%) ATS coming off a SU win since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (-2.5 at Hawaii), also PLAY Under the total (o/u at 47.5)
* GEORGIA SOUTHERN is 20-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA SOUTHERN (vs. Maine)
* GEORGIA STATE is 21-10-1 (67.7%) ATS in its last 32 road/neutral games
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+26.5 at Vanderbilt)
* GEORGIA TECH is 10-21-1 ATS (32.3%) as a favorite since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA TECH (-23.5 vs. Temple)
* ILLINOIS is 16-4 ATS in road games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): ILLINOIS (+4.5 at Indiana)
* JAMES MADISON is 25-13 (65.8%) ATS as a favorite since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-9.5 at Liberty)
* KANSAS is 5-17 (22.7%) ATS as a favorite since 2018
* KANSAS is 38-23-1 (62.3%) Over the total since 2019
Trends Match: FADE KANSAS (-13.5 vs. West Virginia), also PLAY Over the total (o/u at 54.5)
* KENT STATE is 11-24 (31.4%) ATS in last 35 games as an underdog
Trend Match (FADE): KENT STATE (+45.5 at Florida State)
* LIBERTY is 25-9 (73.5%) ATS as an underdog since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): LIBERTY (+9.5 vs. James Madison)
* LOUISIANA TECH is 37-25-1 (59.7%) Over the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SOUTHERN MISS-LOUISIANA TECH (o/u at 50.5)
* LOUISVILLE is 7-13 (35%) ATS in non-conference games since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): LOUISVILLE (-26.5 vs. Bowling Green)
* LSU is 25-18 (58.1%) over the total since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): Southeast Louisiana-LSU
* MIAMI OHIO is on a 36-22-1 (62.1%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UNLV-MIAMI OH (o/u at 48.5)
* MICHIGAN is 19-8 (70.4%) ATS in road/neutral games in the last four seasons
* NEBRASKA is 7-14-2 (33.3%) ATS at home in its last 23 games
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (-2.5 at Nebraska)
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 30-22 (57.7%) Under the total since 2021
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 18-12 (60%) ATS at home since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (-21 vs. Northern Illinois), also PLAY Under the total (o/u at 49.5)
* OLE MISS is 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in non-conference games in five seasons under coach Lane Kiffin
Trend Match (PLAY): OLE MISS (-11.5 vs. Tulane)
* SAN DIEGO STATE is 45-27 (62.5%) Under the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CAL-San Diego State (o/u at 48.5)
* TEMPLE is 19-11 (63.3%) ATS coming off a SU loss since 2020
* TEMPLE is 6-17 (26.1%) ATS in road games over the last four seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TEMPLE (+23.5 at Georgia Tech)
* TROY is 20-6 (76.9%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (+5.5 at Buffalo)
* TULSA is 24-13-1 (64.9%) ATS in road/neutral games over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (+12.5 at Oklahoma State)
* UAB is 1-13 ATS (7.1%%) following an outright win and 5-15 (25%) in road/neutral games over the last three seasons
* TENNESSEE is 18-4 (81.8%) ATS in non-conference games since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-39.5 vs. UAB)
* UNLV is 26-7 (78.7%) ATS in non-conference games since 2017
* UNLV is on a 20-8 (71.4%) ATS run following a SU win
Trends Match (PLAY): UNLV (-2.5 at Miami OH)
* USC is 30-13 ATS (69.8%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MICHIGAN STATE-USC (o/u at 56.5)
* UTEP is 9-20 (31%) ATS at home since 2020
* UTEP is 11-25 ATS (30.6%) in non-conference games since 2017
Trends Match (FADE): UTEP (-5.5 vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE)
* VANDERBILT is on a 7-13 (35%) ATS skid following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): VANDERBILT (-26.5 vs. Georgia State)
* VIRGINIA TECH is 6-22 ATS (21.4%) in non-conference games since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): VANDERBILT (vs. Wofford)
* WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS (0%) in road/neutral games and 1-6 (14.3%) following outright wins since 2024
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-19.5 at Washington State)
* WESTERN KENTUCKY is 15-24 (38.5%) ATS as a favorite since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): WESTERN KENTUCKY (-10.5 vs. Nevada)
Top Head-to-Head Series College Football Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
Week 4
(305) TULSA at (306) OKLAHOMA STATE
* Road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the series
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (+12.5 at Oklahoma State)
(311) SMU at (312) TCU
* Road teams are on 8-2 ATS run in the SMU-TCU rivalry (although two straight home covers)
Trend Match (PLAY): SMU (+7 at TCU)
(323) FLORIDA at (324) MIAMI FL
* MIAMI is on a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS run vs. Florida
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI FL (-7.5 vs. UF)
(327) SYRACUSE at (328) CLEMSON
* Under the total is 9-2 in the Syracuse-Clemson series since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SYRACUSE-CLEMSON (o/u at 55.5)
(331) NC STATE at (332) DUKE
* DUKE is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games with in-state rival NC STATE
Trend Match (PLAY): DUKE (-3.5 vs. NC State)
(339) MARYLAND at (340) WISCONSIN
* Home teams are 4-0 ATS in all four meetings between Maryland and Wisconsin since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): WISCONSIN (-10 vs. Maryland)
(357) WEST VIRGINIA at (358) KANSAS
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight games of this series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WEST VIRGINIA-KANSAS (o/u at 56.5)
(367) MICHIGAN at (368) NEBRASKA
* Favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games of the series
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (-2.5 at Nebraska)
(373) SOUTH CAROLINA at (374) MISSOURI
* MISSOURI is on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS surge versus SC
* Under the total is 10-3 in the last 13 games of this series
Trends Match: MISSOURI (-11.5 vs. South Carolina), also PLAY Under the total (o/u at 47.5)
(387) BOISE STATE at (312) AIR FORCE
* BOISE STATE is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Air Force
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-10 at Air Force)
(391) SOUTHERN MISS at (392) LOUISIANA TECH
* Underdogs are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games of the series
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTHERN MISS (+3 at Louisiana Tech)
(393) WASHINGTON at (394) WASHINGTON STATE
* WASHINGTON is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 visits to Pullman
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-19.5 at Washington State)
