The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 6. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

AJ’s Angles

* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than three points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play-against team, 28-49 ATS (36.4%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): MARYLAND (+6.5 vs. Washington)

* TROY is on a 15-4 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (-2.5 vs. South Alabama)

* Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 225-176 ATS (56.1%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO STATE (+2.5 vs. Sam Houston State)

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 5-22-2 (18.5%) ATS in its last 29 home games
Trend Match (FADE): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+5.5 vs. Miami OH)

* In games featuring two-ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite and the total being > 56, Under the total boasts an impressive 22-8 (73.3%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): VANDERBILT-ALABAMA (o/u at 56.5)

* Road teams are 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 of Fresno State-Nevada rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NEVADA (+14 at Fresno State)

* Big Ten home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have had totals go Under at a 36-14 (72%) rate since 2017.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MINNESOTA-OHIO STATE (spread at -23.5, total at 44.5)

#1 DIFFERENTIAL in EYPP ratings with ACTUAL point spread: OLD DOMINION -18.5 vs. Coastal Carolina (+25.9 difference, heavily favoring ODU)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

* KENTUCKY is 15-20 SU and 21-14 ATS (60%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): KENTUCKY (+20.5 at Georgia)

* CINCINNATI is 10-14 SU and 8-16 ATS (33.3%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-1.5 vs. Iowa State)

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 111-124 ATS (47.2%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): ALABAMA (-10.5 vs. Vanderbilt)

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 225-176 ATS (56.1%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO STATE (+2.5 vs. Sam Houston State)

College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll. 

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 204-100 SU and 178-118-8 ATS (60.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ALABAMA (-10.5 vs. Vanderbilt), FLORIDA STATE (+4.5 vs. Miami FL)

Digging deeper into that data, when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 117-27 SU and 87-53-4 ATS (62.1%).
System Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-10.5 vs. Vanderbilt)

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #4
In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 40-19 (67.8%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the Under record jumps to 22-8 (73.3%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): VANDERBILT-ALABAMA (o/u at 56.5)

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than three points have struggled lately, 80-111 ATS (41.9%) since 2011.
System Match (FADE): WAKE FOREST (+6.5 at Virginia Tech)

* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than seven points after not having played in 14 days are on a 141-108 ATS (56.6%) surge since 2010.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (+26.5 at USF), WISCONSIN (+16.5 at Michigan), MICHIGAN STATE (+11.5 at Nebraska), COASTAL CAROLINA (+18.5 at Old Dominion), NEVADA (+14 at Fresno State)

* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than three points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play-against team, 28-49 ATS (36.4%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): MARYLAND (+6.5 vs. Washington)

* Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 47-74 ATS (38.8%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): GEORGIA STATE (+19.5 vs. James Madison)

* Big Ten home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have had totals go Under at a 36-14 (72%) rate since 2017.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MINNESOTA-OHIO STATE (spread at -23.5, total at 44.5), also WATCH FOR WISCONSIN-MINNESOTA (spread at -16.5, total at 42.5)

* Big 12 home favorites of 21 points or more have seen totals go Over at a 24-9 (72.7%) rate since 2016.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WATCH FOR OKLAHOMA STATE-ARIZONA (spread at -20.5)

* MAC home/neutral underdogs in the +2.5 to +5.5 line range have seen their totals go Under at a 40-21 rate (65.6%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIAMI OHIO-NORTHERN ILLINOIS (spread at +5.5, total at 38.5)

* AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 108-15 SU and 72-46-5 (61%) ATS since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): ARMY (-7 at UAB), also WATCH FOR UTSA at Temple (spread at UTSA -6.5)

* MWC FAVORITES of >=  four points on Friday nights have gone 54-3 SU since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO STATE ML (-245 vs. Colorado State)

Negative FADE trends:

• NEBRASKA is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a Big Ten favorite
Trend Match (FADE ATS): NEBRASKA (-11.5 vs. Michigan State)

• TEMPLE is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 conference games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): TEMPLE (+6.5 vs. UTSA)

• MEMPHIS is on a 7-19 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win
Trend Match (FADE ATS): MEMPHIS (-20.5 vs. Tulsa)

• AKRON is on a 6-15 ATS skid in MAC play when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): AKRON (+8.5 vs. Central Michigan)

Positive FOLLOW trends:
• TROY is on a 15-4 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (-2.5 vs. South Alabama)

• NAVY is on a 31-7 ATS run in conference games when coming off a home win
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-11.5 vs. Air Force)

• PENN STATE has become a reliable Big Ten favorite, 21-9 ATS in its last 30
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-25.5 at UCLA)

• LOUISVILLE is on an impressive 12-3 ATS surge as an ACC home favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISVILLE (-7.5 vs. Virginia)

• EASTERN MICHIGAN is an impressive MAC road underdog, 18-7 ATS in last 25
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+10 at Buffalo)

Extreme Stat Next-Game CFB Betting Systems

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on VSiN.com, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span would have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW MEXICO, BYU, SAN DIEGO STATE, GEORGIA, MICHIGAN, CLEMSON, WESTERN MICHIGAN, ARIZONA, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, BUFFALO, PENN STATE, VANDERBILT, NOTRE DAME, MICHIGAN STATE, TEXAS STATE, OLD DOMINION, TROY, TEXAS TECH, WYOMING, KANSAS, OHIO STATE, TCU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the hoe side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TROY, OHIO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in ’24, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEMSON, ILLINOIS, UTSA, WESTERN MICHIGAN, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, JAMES MADISON, MIAMI OH, PENN STATE, TEXAS, TEXAS STATE, KANSAS, TEXAS TECH, MIAMI FL, DUKE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, NEW MEXICO, WAKE FOREST, VANDERBILT, MICHIGAN STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW MEXICO, IOWA STATE, WAKE FOREST, OREGON STATE, VIRGINIA, VANDERBILT, SYRACUSE, MICHIGAN STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 season record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE, SOUTH FLORIDA, DELAWARE, NEW MEXICO, BYU, SAN DIEGO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the ’22 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2364 games.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TEXAS STATE-ARKANSAS STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WESTERN MICHIGAN-UMASS, MIAMI OH-NORTHERN ILLINOIS, TEXAS-FLORIDA, MICHIGAN STATE-NEBRASKA, NEVADA-FRESNO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): COLORADO STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE, WISCONSIN-MICHIGAN, CLEMSON-NORTH CAROLINA, CENTRAL MICHIGAN-AKRON, LOUISIANA MONROE-NORTHWESTERN, MIAMI OH-NORTHERN ILLINOIS, TEXAS-FLORIDA, MINNESOTA-OHIO STATE

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PURDUE +9.5 (+6.8)
2. WESTERN KENTUCKY +3 (+6.5)
3. AKRON +8.5 (+4.2)
4. SYRACUSE +17.5 (+4.0)
5. IOWA STATE+1.5 (+3.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UCONN -7.5 (+5.0)
2. TROY -2.5 (+3.7)
3. NORTHWESTERN -10.5 (+3.6)
4 (tie). OKLAHOMA -45.5 (+3.2)
ALABAMA -10.5 (+3.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SYRACUSE +17.5 (+10.7)
2. VIRGINIA +7.5 (+8.7)
3. GEORGIA STATE+19.5 (+7.4)
4 (tie). WAKE FOREST +6.5 (+6.7)
FLORIDA STATE +4.5 (+6.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PENN STATE -25.5 (+8.3)
2. OKLAHOMA -45.5 (+5.7)
3. MEMPHIS -20.5 (+3.9)
4. RICE -4.5 (+3.8)
5. TEXAS -13.5 (+3.4)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. AIR FORCE-NAVY OVER 51.5 (+5.6)
2 (tie). MIAMI OH-NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER 38.5 (+5.0)
SYRACUSE-SMU OVER 58.5 (+5.0)
4. COLORADO-TCU OVER 57.5 (+4.1)
5. TEXAS-FLORIDA OVER 41.5 (+3.4)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KENT STATE-OKLAHOMA UNDER 53.5 (-5.0)
2. TEXAS STATE-ARKANSAS STATE UNDER 63.5 (-3.7)
3. TEXAS TECH-HOUSTON UNDER 50.5 (-2.2)
4. DUKE-CALIFORNIA UNDER 55.5 (-1.7)
5. KANSAS-UCF UNDER 54.5 (-1.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. COLORADO STATE +6 (+15.9)
2. WESTERN KENTUCKY +3 (+9.9)
3. GEORGIA STATE +19.5 (+9.8)
4. WISCONSIN +16.5 (+8.7)
5. OKLAHOMA STATE +20.5 (+6.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UCONN -7.5 (+6.8)
2. OHIO -14.5 (+6.5)
3. KANSAS -5.5 (+6.3)
4. ARMY -7 (+5.8)
5. TEXAS A&M -14 (+5.0)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI FL-FLORIDA STATE OVER 53.5 (+13.3)
2. TEXAS TECH-HOUSTON OVER 50.5 (+4.9)
3. MISSISSIPPI STATE-TEXAS A&M OVER 55.5 (+4.2)
4. WESTERN MICHIGAN-UMASS OVER 46.5 (+3.6)
5. TEXAS-FLORIDA OVER 41.5 (+3.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KENT STATE-OKLAHOMA UNDER 53.5 (-5.2)
2 (tie). WESTERN KENTUCKY-DELAWARE UNDER 61.5 (-3.4)
EASTERN MICHIGAN-BUFFALO UNDER 54.5 (-3.4)
4 (tie). TULSA-MEMPHIS UNDER 56.5 (-2.6)
KANSAS STATE-BAYLOR UNDER 61.5 (-2.6)

Comparing Effective Play-by-Play ratings to this week’s matchups

The following are taken from an article posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, looking at how Steve Makinen comes up with his ratings and any edges in games each weekend. As far as actionable items, here are the top 15 games for this weekend, showing the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences. Track these games to see how they fare, or back them already if you agree with the logic. Starting from Week 4 of 2025, these plays are 17-13 ATS (56.7%).

1. (181) USC at (182) ILLINOIS
Actual Line: ILLINOIS +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ILLINOIS +39.1
Difference: 32.6, Favors — USC

2. (119) LIBERTY at (120) OLD DOMINION
Actual Line: OLD DOMINION -16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLD DOMINION -45.1
Difference: 28.6, Favors — OLD DOMINION

3. (197) ALABAMA at (198) GEORGIA
Actual Line: GEORGIA -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA +21.3
Difference: 24.3, Favors — ALABAMA

4. (195) OREGON at (196) PENN STATE
Actual Line: PENN STATE -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PENN STATE +20.2
Difference: 23.7, Favors — OREGON

5. (159) CINCINNATI at (160) KANSAS
Actual Line: KANSAS -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KANSAS +14.6
Difference: 19.1, Favors — CINCINNATI

6. (145) RUTGERS at (146) MINNESOTA
Actual Line: MINNESOTA -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MINNESOTA -20.6
Difference: 16.1, Favors — MINNESOTA

7. (149) HAWAII at (150) AIR FORCE
Actual Line: AIR FORCE -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AIR FORCE +8.7
Difference: 15.2, Favors — HAWAII

8. (113) GA SOUTHERN at (114) JAMES MADISON
Actual Line: JAMES MADISON -17.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JAMES MADISON -32.4
Difference: 14.9, Favors — JAMES MADISON

9. (117) UTAH at (118) WEST VIRGINIA
Actual Line: WEST VIRGINIA +12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WEST VIRGINIA -1.5
Difference: 14, Favors — UTAH

10. (133) INDIANA at (134) IOWA
Actual Line: IOWA +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA +21.4
Difference: 13.9, Favors — INDIANA

11. (161) ARIZONA at (162) IOWA STATE
Actual Line: IOWA STATE -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA STATE +7.3
Difference: 13.8, Favors — ARIZONA

12. (175) LSU at (176) OLE MISS
Actual Line: OLE MISS -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLE MISS -15.1
Difference: 13.6, Favors — OLE MISS

13. (131) VIRGINIA TECH at (132) NC STATE
Actual Line: NC STATE -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NC STATE -23.9
Difference: 13.4, Favors — NC STATE

14. (105) FLORIDA STATE at (106) VIRGINIA
Actual Line: VIRGINIA +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VIRGINIA +19.4
Difference: 12.4, Favors — FLORIDA STATE

15. (183) ARKANSAS STATE at (184) LOUISIANA-MONROE
Actual Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE -14.9
Difference: 12.4, Favors — LOUISIANA-MONROE

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* AIR FORCE is 31-19 (62%) ATS in non-conference games since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY): AIR FORCE (+11.5 at Navy)

* AKRON is 16-30-1 (34.8%) ATS at home since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): AKRON (+8.5 vs. Central Michigan)

* ALABAMA is on a 27-9 ATS (75%) surge at home
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-10.5 vs. Vanderbilt)

* APPALACHIAN STATE is 7-24 ATS (22.6%) in the last 31 games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): APPALACHIAN STATE (-1.5 vs. Oregon State)

* BALL STATE is 36-24-1 (60%) Under the total over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OHIO-BALL STATE (o/u at 50.5)

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 26-15 (63.4%) ATS in conference games since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (+6.5 at Pitt)

* BUFFALO is 23-12-1 (65.7%) ATS at home since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-10 vs. Eastern Michigan)

* CALIFORNIA is 29-15 (65.9%) ATS as underdog since ’18
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+3 vs. Duke)

* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 5-13 ATS (27.8%) as a favorite in last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-8.5 at Akron)

* CLEMSON is 22-13 (62.9%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’20
* CLEMSON is 12-6 (66.7%) ATS in the last 18 following a SU loss
Trends Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-14 at North Carolina)

* COLORADO is 10-1 ATS (90.9%) following up a SU loss in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+13.5 at TCU)

* E MICHIGAN is 40-20 (66.7%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+10 at Buffalo)

* FLORIDA STATE is 11-22 (33.3%) ATS in conference games since ’21
* FLORIDA STATE is 14-5 to the Under in its last 19 games as an underdog
Trends Match: FADE FLORIDA STATE (+4.5 vs. Miami FL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 53.5)

* FRESNO STATE is 34-22-1 (60.7%) Under the total since ’21
* FRESNO STATE is 23-12 (65.7%) ATS coming off SU win since ’21
Trends Match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (-14 vs. Nevada), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45.5)

* ILLINOIS is 16-5 ATS in road games since 2021
* PURDUE is 6-16 ATS (27.3%) at home over the last three seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): ILLINOIS (-9.5 at Purdue)

* IOWA STATE is 18-7 (72%) ATS as an underdog since ’21
Trend Match (PLAY): IOWA STATE (+1.5 at Cincinnati)

* JAMES MADISON is 27-13 (67.5%) ATS as a favorite since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-19.5 at Georgia State)

* KANSAS is 6-18 (25%) ATS as a favorite since ’18
* KANSAS is 39-24-1 (61.9%) Over the total since ‘19
Trends Match: FADE KANSAS (-5.5 at UCF), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 54.5)

* KENT STATE is 11-25 (30.6%) ATS in last 36 games as an underdog
Trend Match (FADE): KENT STATE (+45.5 at Oklahoma)

* MIAMI OHIO is on a 37-23-1 (61.7%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIAMI OH-NORTHERN ILLINOIS (o/u at 38.5)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 31-23 (57.4%) Under the total since ’21
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSISSIPPI STATE (+14 at Texas A&M)

* NAVY is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) following a SU win in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-11.5 vs. Air Force)

* NEBRASKA is 7-15-2 (29.2%) ATS at home in the last 24
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (-11.5 vs. Michigan State)

* NEW MEXICO is 20-41 (32.8%) ATS in conference games since ’17
* NEW MEXICO is 20-8 (71.4%) Over the total in the last two seasons
Trends Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (+2.5 at San Jose State), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 58.5)

* NEW MEXICO STATE is 32-24 (57.1%) ATS in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO STATE (+2.5 vs. Sam Houston State)

* NC STATE is 3-13 ATS (18.8%) in non-conference games in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NC STATE (vs. Campbell)

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 5-22-2 (18.5%) ATS in the last 29 home games
Trend Match (FADE): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+5.5 vs. Miami OH)

* NORTHWESTERN is 32-11 to the Under as a home favorite since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LOUISIANA MONROE-NORTHWESTERN (o/u at 40.5)

* OHIO U is 24-10 ATS (70.6%) in conference games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (-14.5 at Ball State)

* OLD DOMINION is 10-22 (31.3%) ATS at home since ’19
Trend Match (FADE): OLD DOMINION (-18.5 vs. Coastal Carolina)

* PENN STATE is 10-20 (33.3%) ATS coming off SU loss since ’15
Trend Match (FADE): PENN STATE (-25.5 at UCLA)

* PITTSBURGH is 42-24 (63.6%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOSTON COLLEGE-PITTSBURGH (o/u at 58.5)

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 47-27 (63.5%) Under the total since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COLORADO STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE (o/u at 40.5)

* TEMPLE is 20-11 (64.5%) ATS coming off SU loss since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): TEMPLE (+6.5 vs. UTSA)

* TULSA is 25-13-1 (65.8%) ATS in road/neutral games over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (+20.5 at Memphis)

* UAB is 21-10 (67.7%) ATS at home since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): UAB (+7 vs. Army)

* UNLV is on a 21-8 (72.4%) ATS run after a SU win
Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (-3.5 at Wyoming)

* VANDERBILT is on an 8-14 (36.4%) ATS skid after a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): VANDERBILT (+10.5 at Alabama)

* VIRGINIA is on an 18-7 (72%) ATS run following a SU win
Trend Match (PLAY): VIRGINIA (+7.5 at Louisville)

* VIRGINIA TECH is 8-22 (26.7%) ATS in the last 30 games following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): VIRGINIA TECH (-6.5 vs. Wake Forest)

* WASHINGTON is 1-7 (12.5%) ATS in its last eight road/neutral games
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-6.5 at Maryland)

* WYOMING is 15-4 ATS (78.9%) ATS as an underdog in home conference games since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): WYOMING (+3.5 vs. UNLV)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Week 6

(309) NEW MEXICO at (310) SAN JOSE STATE
* SAN JOSE STATE has covered all six  meetings with New Mexico since 2006
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN JOSE STATE (-2.5 vs. UNM)

(329) VIRGINIA at (330) LOUISVILLE
* Underdogs have won four straight ATS in the series
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): VIRGINIA (+7.5 at Louisville)

(333) WISCONSIN at (334) MICHIGAN
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of this series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WISCONSIN-MICHIGAN (o/u at 42.5)

(335) CLEMSON at (336) NORTH CAROLINA
* Favorites are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-14 at UNC)

(343) CENTRAL MICHIGAN at (344) AKRON
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the rivalry, including a 4-0 Under run in Akron
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CENTRAL MICHIGAN-AKRON (o/u at 45.5)

(347) EASTER MICHIGAN at (348) BUFFALO
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of this MAC series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): EASTERN MICHIGAN-BUFFALO (o/u at 54.5)

(357) SOUTH ALABAMA at (358) TROY
* Under the total is 9-3-1 in the last 13 of this series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SOUTH ALABAMA-TROY (o/u at 47.5)

(361) MIAMI OHIO at (362) NORTHERN ILLINOIS
* MIAMI OHIO is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 vs. Northern Illinois
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI OH (-5.5 at NIU)

(371) MIAMI FL at (372) FLORIDA STATE
* Road teams are on 15-4 ATS surge in this ACC series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI FL (-4.5 at Florida State)
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the series in Tallahassee
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIAMI FL-FLORIDA STATE (o/u at 53.5)

(383) KANSAS STATE at (384) BAYLOR
* Underdogs are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 matchups between KSU-BU, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight in Waco
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (+6.5 at BAYLOR)

(397) UNLV at (398) WYOMING
* Over the total is 7-0-1 in the last eight of this series in Laramie
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UNLV-WYOMING (o/u at 51.5)

(401) NEVADA at (402) FRESNO STATE
* Road teams are 11-2-1 the ATS in the last 14 of the  rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NEVADA (+14 at Fresno State)

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