The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 8. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

AJ’s Angles

* Over the total is 18-6 (75%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LSU-VANDERBILT (spread at Vandy -2.5, total at 48.5), MISSOURI-AUBURN (spread at Auburn +1.5, total at 43.5)

* UTAH is 16-9 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (-3.5 at BYU)

* APPALACHIAN STATE is 9-24 ATS (27.3%) in its last 33 games as a favorite (including 1-9 ATS in its last 10 as a double-digit favorite)
Trend Match (FADE): APPALACHIAN STATE (-10.5 vs. Coastal Carolina)

* Home teams are 10-2 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 of the UTSA-North Texas rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTH TEXAS (-4.5 vs. UTSA)

* College football teams that gained 100 yards or fewer in a game have not bounced back well in the next, going just 25-35-1 ATS (41.7%) in their last 61 tries.
System Match (FADE): BALL STATE (-1.5 vs. Akron)

* GEORGIA STATE is on a solid road Sun Belt run of 15-4 ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+6.5 at Georgia Southern)

#1 DIFFERENTIAL in EYPP ratings with ACTUAL point spread: OLD DOMINION +1.5 at James Madison (+21.5 difference, heavily favoring ODU)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen Power Ratings: JACKSONVILLE STATE +2.5 vs. Delaware (projections have line at JACKSONVILLE STATE -3.1)

College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll. 

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 205-104 SU and 179-121-9 ATS (59.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): VANDERBILT (-2.5 vs. LSU), GEORGIA (-7.5 vs. Ole Miss), ALABAMA (-8.5 vs. Tennessee), NOTRE DAME (-8.5 vs. USC), BYU (+3.5 vs. Utah)

Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 118-28 SU and 88-54-4 ATS (62%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ALABAMA (-8.5 vs. Tennessee), NOTRE DAME (-8.5 vs. USC), BYU (+3.5 vs. Utah)

Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 60-25 SU and 53-29-3 ATS (64.6%) since ’17.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ALABAMA (-8.5 vs. Tennessee), NOTRE DAME (-8.5 vs. USC), BYU (+3.5 vs. Utah)

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than three points have struggled lately, 81-111 ATS (42.2%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEMPLE (-12.5 at Charlotte), PENN STATE (+3 at Iowa)

* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than seven points after not having played in 14 days are on a 146-113 ATS (56.4%) surge since 2010.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WEST VIRGINIA (+7.5 at UCF), MISSISSIPPI STATE (+8.5 at Florida)

* Over the total is 18-6 (75%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LSU-VANDERBILT (spread at Vandy -2.5, total at 48.5), MISSOURI-AUBURN (spread at Auburn +1.5, total at 43.5)

* Big Ten home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone Under the total at a 38-15 (71.7%) rate since 2017
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MICHIGAN STATE-INDIANA (spread at -27.5, total at 52.5)

* Under the total is 53-30-1 (63.9%) in Conference USA expected tight matchups (-3 to +2.5 line range) since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DELAWARE-JACKSONVILLE STATE (spread at JACKSONVILLE STATE +2.5, total at 57.5), UTEP-SAM HOUSTON STATE (spread at SHSU +2.5, total at 47.5)

* Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 50-25-1 (66.7%) rate since 2015 (including 21-5 (80.8%) when total is >= 59)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ARKANSAS STATE-SOUTH ALABAMA (o/u at 58.5)

* Sun Belt road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 61-27 SU and 52-36 (59.1%) ATS since 2015
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TROY (-6 at Louisiana-Monroe), SOUTHERN MISS (-4 at Louisiana)

* AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 111-15 SU and 73-47-6 (60.8%) ATS since 2015
System Match (PLAY): TULANE (-9.5 vs. Army)

* Big 12 home underdogs of 23.5 points or more have gone 11-2 ATS (84.6%) since 2016
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA STATE (*if they fall into this line range vs. Cincinnati, +22.5 currently*)

Negative FADE trends:

• GEORGIA SOUTHERN is on a 0-8 ATS streak in conference games when coming off a close loss of seven points or less
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-6.5 vs. Georgia State)

• UCF has lost 12 of its last 13 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trend Match (FADE): UCF (-7.5 vs. West Virginia)

• STANFORD is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 conference games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): STANFORD (+17.5 vs. Florida State)

• RUTGERS is on a 2-11 ATS skid as a Big Ten home underdog
Trend Match (FADE): RUTGERS (+17.5 vs. Oregon)

• NEBRASKA is just 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games as a Big Ten favorite
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (-9.5 at Minnesota)

• MEMPHIS is on an 8-19 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win
Trend Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-21.5 at UAB)

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• TROY has won 11 of its last 13 Sun Belt road games ATS
• TROY is on a 17-4 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY): TROY (-6 at Louisiana-Monroe)

• OLD DOMINION has won 10 of its last 12 games ATS as a conference underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): OLD DOMINION (+1.5 at James Madison)

• GEORGIA STATE is on a solid road Sun Belt run of 15-4 ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+6.5 at Georgia Southern)

• NORTHWESTERN is on a 12-2 ATS Big Ten run when coming off a close win of seven points or less
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTHWESTERN (-3.5 vs. Purdue)

• NORTHERN ILLINOIS is a 16-4 ATS MAC road underdog in its last 20 tries
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+11.5 at Ohio)• EASTERN MICHIGAN is an impressive MAC road underdog, 19-7 ATS in its last 26
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+13.5 at Miami OH)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)
* UTAH is 16-9 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (-3.5 at BYU)

* KENTUCKY is 15-21 SU and 21-15 ATS (58.3%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (+12.5 vs. Texas)

* TULSA is 11-22 SU and 19-13 ATS (59.4%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (+17.5 at East Carolina)

* TULANE is 17-20 SU and 23-13 ATS (63.9%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (-9.5 vs. Army)

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 226-176 ATS (56.2%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTEP (-3 at Sam Houston State), GEORGIA STATE (+6.5 at Georgia Southern)

Extreme Stat Next-Game CFB Betting Systems

Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 42-69 SU and 39-68-4 ATS (36.4%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): PENN STATE (+3 at Iowa)

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next game, going just 147-187-1 ATS (44%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (FADE ALL): UTSA (+4.5 at North Texas), OLD DOMINION (+1.5 at James Madison), MARSHALL (+2.5 vs. Texas State)

Dismal offensive performances carry over
College football teams that gained 100 yards or fewer in a game have not bounced back well in the next, going just 25-35-1 ATS (41.7%) in their last 61 tries.
System Match (FADE): BALL STATE (-1.5 vs. Akron)

Playing well offensively but losing is a good sign for the next outing
College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well, going 61-44-2 ATS (58.1%) over the last 12 years.
System Match (PLAY): AIR FORCE (-4 vs. Wyoming)

Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders
Over the last 12 years, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 80-54 ATS (59.7%) in the follow-up game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOWLING GREEN (-4 vs. Central Michigan), VIRGINIA (-17.5 vs. Washington State)

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on VSiN.com, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 1 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): UTEP, UCONN, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, WASHINGTON, TOLEDO, BUFFALO, TROY, APPALACHIAN STATE, OHIO, TEMPLE, MARSHALL, OHIO STATE, AIR FORCE, TEXAS TECH, MISSISSIPPI STATE, WASHINGTON STATE, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, IOWA, SOUTH FLORIDA, SYRACUSE, NEW MEXICO

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 202,3 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALL STATE, NORTH TEXAS, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, SOUTH FLORIDA, NEW MEXICO

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in ’24, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DELAWARE, UTEP, NEBRASKA, OKLAHOMA, BUFFALO, TROY, TEMPLE, TEXAS A&M, OHIO STATE, MEMPHIS, TEXAS TECH, SOUTHERN MISS, OREGON, TEXAS, MISSOURI, CINCINNATI, UTAH, FLORIDA STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE, TULSA, SAN JOSE STATE, UCONN, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, WASHINGTON, PURDUE, UTSA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, WASHINGTON STATE, HAWAII, USC, TENNESSEE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE, ARKANSAS STATE, GEORGIA TECH, LSU, WASHINGTON, WEST VIRGINIA, SMU, OLE MISS, MISSISSIPPI STATE, USC, TENNESSEE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 season record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE, WESTERN KENTUCKY, UTEP, MIAMI FL, SAN JOSE STATE, CALIFORNIA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the ’22 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2364 games.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAYLOR-TCU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE-LIBERTY, UTEP-SAM HOUSTON STATE, NORTH CAROLINA-CALIFORNIA, EASTERN MICHIGAN-MIAMI OH, BUFFALO-UMASS, PURDUE-NORTHWESTERN, NORTHERN ILLINOIS-OHIO, AKRON-BALL STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NEBRASKA-MINNESOTA, CENTRAL MICHIGAN-BOWLING GREEN, ARIZONA-HOUSTON, ARMY-TULANE, OKLAHOMA-SOUTH CAROLINA, WEST VIRGINIA-UCF, BUFFALO-UMASS, NORTHERN ILLINOIS-OHIO, OHIO STATE-WISCONSIN, PENN STATE-IOWA, TEXAS-KENTUCKY, MISSOURI-AUBURN

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. JACKSONVILLE STATE +2.5 (+5.6)
2. LSU +2.5 (+4.1)
3. MARYLAND +3.5 (+4.0)
4. NORTH CAROLINA +10 (+3.9)
5. MINNESOTA +9.5 (+3.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOWLING GREEN -4 (+5.0)
2. FLORIDA -8.5 (+3.5)
3. TULANE -9.5 (+3.4)
4 (tie). TOLEDO -26.5 (+3.2)
CLEMSON -8.5 (+3.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MICHIGAN STATE +27.5 (+9.6)
2. UAB +21.5 (+8.1)
3. CHARLOTTE +12.5 (+5.4)
4. MISSISSIPPI STATE +8.5 (+4.8)
5. RUTGERS +17.5 (+4.5)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOLEDO -26.5 (+6.7)
2. OHIO STATE -25.5 (+4.7)
3 (tie). MIAMI FL -13.5 (+4.0)
NEBRASKA -9.5 (+4.0)
5. BUFFALO -16.5 (+2.9)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTEP-SAM HOUSTON STATE OVER 47.5 (+6.2)
2. EASTERN MICHIGAN-MIAMI OH OVER 47.5 (+6.0)
3. CENTRAL MICHIGAN-BOWLING GREEN OVER 42.5 (+5.3)
4. TROY-LOUISIANA MONROE OVER 46.5 (+5.1)
5. BUFFALO-UMASS OVER 43.5 (+4.4)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS-UAB UNDER 63.5 (-5.5)
2. TULSA-EAST CAROLINA UNDER 54.5 (-4.3)
3. KENT STATE-TOLEDO UNDER 51.5 (-3.2)
4 (tie). COASTAL CAROLINA-APPALACHIAN STATE UNDER 50.5 (-3.0)
WASHINGTON-MICHIGAN UNDER 50.5 (-3.0)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PENN STATE +3 (+13.3)
2. LSU +2.5 (+9.7)
3. MICHIGAN STATE +27.5 (+9.3)
4. MARYLAND +3.5 (+9.2)
5. JACKSONVILLE STATE +2.5 (+8.8)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON COLLEGE -1.5 (+11.8)
2. TEXAS STATE -2.5 (+10.4)
3. TOLEDO -26.5 (+9.0)
4. FLORIDA STATE -17.5 (+6.1)
5. BALL STATE -1.5 (+4.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARIZONA-HOUSTON OVER 45.5 (+5.2)
2 (tie). LSU-VANDERBILT OVER 48.5 (+4.7)
MISSOURI-AUBURN OVER 43.5 (+4.7)
4. AKRON-BALL STATE OVER 42.5 (+4.6)
5. OLD DOMINION-JAMES MADISON OVER 47.5 (+4.3)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. FLORIDA ATLANTIC-SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER 73.5 (-5.7)
2. WYOMING-AIR FORCE UNDER 58.5 (-4.7)
3. TULSA-EAST CAROLINA UNDER 54.5 (-3.9)
4. HAWAII-COLORADO STATE UNDER 54.5 (-3.3)
5. PITTSBURGH-SYRACUSE UNDER 54.5 (-3.0)

Comparing Effective Play-by-Play ratings to this week’s matchups

The following are taken from an article posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, looking at how Steve Makinen comes up with his ratings and any edges in games each weekend. As far as actionable items, here are the top 15 games for this weekend, showing the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences. Track these games to see how they fare, or back them already if you agree with the logic. Starting from Week 4 of 2025, these plays are 35-24 ATS (59.3%).

1. (335) OLD DOMINION at (336) JAMES MADISON
Actual Line: JAMES MADISON -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JAMES MADISON +19
Difference: 21.5, Favors: OLD DOMINION

2. (397) CINCINNATI at (398) OKLAHOMA STATE
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA STATE +21.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA STATE +41.8
Difference: 20.3, Favors: CINCINNATI

3. (413) OREGON at (414) RUTGERS
Actual Line: RUTGERS +17.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: RUTGERS +36.8
Difference: 19.3, Favors: OREGON

4. (329) EASTERN MICHIGAN at (330) MIAMI OHIO
Actual Line: MIAMI OHIO -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIAMI OHIO -27.8
Difference: 14.3, Favors: MIAMI OHIO

5. (303) ARKANSAS STATE at (304) SOUTH ALABAMA
Actual Line: SOUTH ALABAMA -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH ALABAMA -19.9
Difference: 12.4, Favors: SOUTH ALABAMA

6. (405) WYOMING at (406) AIR FORCE
Actual Line: AIR FORCE -4
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AIR FORCE +8.2
Difference: 12.2, Favors: WYOMING

7. (419) FLORIDA STATE at (420) STANFORD
Actual Line: STANFORD +17.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: STANFORD +27.9
Difference: 10.4, Favors: FLORIDA STATE

8. (343) KENT STATE at (344) TOLEDO
Actual Line: TOLEDO -26.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TOLEDO -36.7
Difference: 10.2, Favors: TOLEDO

9. (401) UTAH at (402) BYU
Actual Line: BYU +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BYU -6.2
Difference: 9.7, Favors: BYU

10. (391) OLE MISS at (392) GEORGIA
Actual Line: GEORGIA -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA +2
Difference: 9.5, Favors: OLE MISS

11. (319) SAN JOSE STATE at (320) UTAH STATE
Actual Line: UTAH STATE -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH STATE -13
Difference: 9.5, Favors: UTAH STATE

12. (353) TEXAS STATE at (354) MARSHALL
Actual Line: MARSHALL +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARSHALL +11.8
Difference: 9.3, Favors: TEXAS STATE

13. (407) TEXAS TECH at (408) ARIZONA STATE
Actual Line: ARIZONA STATE +11.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA STATE +20.3
Difference: 8.8, Favors: TEXAS TECH

14. (389) ARMY at (390) TULANE
Actual Line: TULANE -9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TULANE -17.5
Difference: 8, Favors: TULANE

15. (325) COASTAL CAROLINA at (326) APPALACHIAN STATE
Actual Line: APPALACHIAN STATE -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: APPALACHIAN STATE -18.4
Difference: 7.9, Favors: APPALACHIAN STATE

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* ALABAMA is on a 28-9 ATS (75.7%) surge at home
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-8.5 vs. Tennessee)

* APPALACHIAN STATE is 9-24 ATS (27.3%) in its last 33 games as a favorite (including 1-9 ATS in its last 10 as a double-digit favorite)
Trend Match (FADE): APPALACHIAN STATE (-10.5 vs. Coastal Carolina)

* ARIZONA is 17-31 (35.4%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+1.5 at Houston)

* ARIZONA STATE is 28-16-1 (63.6%) ATS as an underdog since ’18
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA STATE (+9.5 vs. Texas Tech)

* BALL STATE is 38-24-1 (61.3%) Under the total over last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AKRON-BALL STATE (o/u at 42.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 5-17 (22.7%) ATS in last 22 home games
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+12.5 vs. Temple)

* EAST MICHIGAN is 41-20 (67.2%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+13.5 at Miami OH)

* FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 6-17 (26.1%) ATS in its last 23 games following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+21.5 at South Florida)

* FLORIDA STATE is 11-22 (33.3%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’19
* FLORIDA STATE is 11-24 (31.4%) ATS in conference games since ’21
Trends Match (FADE): FLORIDA STATE (-17.5 at Stanford)

* GEORGIA STATE is 21-11-1 (65.6%) ATS in its last 33 road/neutral games
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+6.5 at Georgia Southern)

* JAMES MADISON is 27-15 (64.3%) ATS as a favorite since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-1.5 vs. Old Dominion)

* KENT STATE is 12-25 (32.4%) ATS in its last 37 games as an underdog
Trend Match (FADE): KENT STATE (+26.5 at Toledo)

* LSU is 24-15 (61.5%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (+2.5 at Vanderbilt)

* MIAMI OHIO is on a 38-24-1 (61.3%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): EASTERN MICHIGAN-MIAMI OH (o/u at 47.5)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 32-23 (58.2%) Under the total since ’21
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MISSISSIPPI STATE-FLORIDA (o/u at 51.5)

* MISSOURI is 10-2 ATS (83.3%) in road/neutral games in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSOURI (-1.5 at Auburn)

* NEW MEXICO is 20-43 (31.7%) ATS in conference games since ’17
* NEW MEXICO is 7-19 (26.9%) ATS as a favorite since ’18
* NEW MEXICO is 22-8 (73.3%) Over the total in the last two seasons
Trends Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (-11.5 vs. Nevada), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 49.5)

* NEW MEXICO STATE is 33-24 (57.9%) ATS in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO STATE (+10 at Liberty)

* OHIO U is 24-11 ATS (68.6%) in conference games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (-11.5 vs. Northern Illinois)

* OKLAHOMA is 24-2 SU in the last 26 games following the Texas rivalry game
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA (-205 at South Carolina)

* OLE MISS is 11-21-2 (34.4%) ATS in conference games since ’21
Trend Match (FADE): OLE MISS (+7.5 at Georgia)

* PENN STATE is 10-22 (31.3%) ATS coming off SU loss since ’15
Trend Match (FADE): PENN STATE (+3 at Iowa)

* PITTSBURGH is 9-2 (81.8%) ATS as a road favorite since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-10.5 at Syracuse)
* PITTSBURGH is 44-24 (64.7%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PITT-SYRACUSE (o/u at 55.5)

* STANFORD is 7-19-1 (26.9%) ATS in its last 27 home games
* STANFORD is 11-30 ATS (26.8%) following an outright loss since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): STANFORD (+17.5 vs. Florida State)

* TEMPLE is 21-11 (65.6%) ATS coming off a SU loss since ’20
* TEMPLE is 7-17 (29.2%) ATS in road games over the last four seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TEMPLE (-12.5 at Charlotte)

* TENNESSEE is 6-14 (30%) ATS as an underdog since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+8.5 at Alabama)

* TEXAS A&M is 4-12 SU and 4-11-2 (26.7%) ATS on the road since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS A&M (-7.5 at Arkansas)

* TROY is 22-6 (78.6%) ATS in road/neutral games since ’21
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (-6 at Louisiana-Monroe)

* TULANE is 51-25-1 (67.1%) ATS as a favorite since ’14
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (-9.5 vs. Army)

* TULSA is 25-14-1 (64.1%) ATS in road/neutral games over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (+17.5 at East Carolina)

* UAB is 21-11 (65.6%) ATS at home since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): UAB (+21.5 vs. Memphis)

* UNLV is on a 22-9 (71%) ATS run following a SU win
Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (+11.5 at Boise State)

* USC is 32-14 ATS (69.6%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): USC-NOTRE DAME (o/u at 61.5)

* VIRGINIA is 19-7 (73.1%) ATS following a SU win since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): VIRGINIA (-17.5 vs. Washington State)

* WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (11.1%) in road/neutral games and 3-7 (30%) following outright wins since 2024
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6 at Michigan)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Week 8

(313) TULSA at (314) EAST CAROLINA
* Over the total is 8-2 in the Tulsa-ECU series since 2009
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TULSA-EAST CAROLINA (o/u at 54.5)

(315) LOUISVILLE at (316) MIAMI FL
* Favorites are 7-0 ATS in the series since 2006
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI FL (-13.5 vs. Louisville)

(319) SAN JOSE STATE at (320) UTAH STATE
* UTAH STATE is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings with San Jose State
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH STATE (-3.5 vs. San Jose State)

(333) NORTHERN ILLINOIS at (334) OHIO
* Underdogs are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the NIU-OHIO series
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+11.5 at Ohio)

(349) GEORGIA TECH at (350) DUKE
* Underdogs are on a run of 6-4 SU and 8-0-2 ATS in this series
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA TECH (+1.5 at Duke)

(351) MICHIGAN STATE at (352) INDIANA
* Road teams are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in the last seven of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN STATE (+27.5 at Indiana)

(357) PITTSBURGH at (358) SYRACUSE
* Under the total is 10-3 in the last 13 of this series, including 6-0 in the last six at Syracuse
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PITTSBURGH-SYRACUSE (o/u at 55.5)

(363) PURDUE at (364) NORTHWESTERN
* Road teams are 9-4 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): PURDUE (+3.5 at Northwestern)

(365) LSU at (366) VANDERBILT
* Road teams are 6-0-1 ATS in the seven matchups between LSU and Vandy since 2004
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (+2.5 at Vanderbilt)

(379) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO at (380) NORTH TEXAS
* Home teams are 10-2 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 of this in-state rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTH TEXAS (-4.5 vs. UTSA)

(387) SOUTHERN MISS at (388) LOUISIANA
* SOUTHERN MISS is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in all seven matchups with Louisiana since 2001
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTHERN MISS (-4 at Louisiana)

(399) OHIO STATE at (400) WISCONSIN
* Home teams are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine non-neutral matchups between Ohio State and Wisconsin
Trend Match (PLAY): WISCONSIN (+25.5 vs. OSU)

(401) UTAH at (400) BYU
* Under the total is 8-2 in the “Holy War” rivalry in Provo since 2001, going Under the total by 17.5 points on average in the eight Unders
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTAH-BYU (o/u at 49.5)

(405) WYOMING at (406) AIR FORCE
* WYOMING is 13-2 ATS in last 15 matchups with Air Force
Trend Match (PLAY): WYOMING (+4 at Air Force)

(415) USC at (416) NOTRE DAME
* Favorites are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of Notre Dame-USC rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-8.5 vs. USC)

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