The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 9. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

AJ’s Angles

* CFB teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 106-20 SU and 82-39-5 ATS (67.8%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (-17.5 vs. Syracuse), VIRGINIA (-10.5 at North Carolina)

* Big 12 home favorites of 21 points or more have seen totals go Over at a 24-10 (70.6%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKLAHOMA STATE-TEXAS TECH (o/u at 56.5)

* Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 51-25-1 (67.1%) rate since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SOUTH ALABAMA-GEORGIA STATE (o/u at 56.5)

* Ball State has won 11 of its last 12 games ATS (91.7%) in MAC play when coming off an upset win
Trend Match (PLAY): BALL STATE (+5.5 at Northern Illinois)

* Road teams are 11-2 ATS run in the Kent State-Bowling Green series
Trend Match (PLAY): BOWLING GREEN (-7.5 at Kent State)

* Teams that lose as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 42-70 SU and 40-68-4 ATS (37%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+4.5 vs. South Florida)

* CHARLOTTE is 5-18 (21.7%) ATS in its last 23 home games
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+26.5 vs. North Texas)

#1 DIFFERENTIAL in EYPP ratings with ACTUAL point spread: PURDUE +2.5 vs. Rutgers (+26.6 difference, heavily favoring Purdue)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen Power Ratings: TOLEDO +1.5 at Washington State (projections have line at Toledo -4.9)

College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll. 

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 210-104 SU and 183-122-9 ATS (60%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA (-5.5 vs. Ole Miss), VANDERBILT (-2.5 vs. Missouri), LSU (+2.5 vs. Texas A&M)

Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 121-28 SU and 90-55-4 ATS (62.1%).
System Match (PLAY): VANDERBILT (-2.5 vs. Missouri)

Adding another point-spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 62-25 SU and 55-29-3 ATS (65.5%) since ’17.
System Match (PLAY): VANDERBILT (-2.5 vs. Missouri)

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than three points have struggled lately, 82-112 ATS (42.3%) since 2011.
System Match (FADE): SOUTH ALABAMA (-6.5 at Georgia State)

* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than seven points after not having played in 14 days are on a 147-113 ATS (56.5%) surge since 2010.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (+9.5 at Delaware), COLORADO (+13.5 at Utah)
*WATCH FOR NC STATE at Pittsburgh (+6.5 currently)*

* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than three points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play-against team, 29-49 ATS (37.2%) since 2010.
System Matches (FADE ALL): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (*if they fall into this line range versus Kennesaw State, +3 currently*)

* Big Ten road favorites of -4 or less have gone 25-9 SU and 23-11 ATS (67.6%) since 2021
System Match (PLAY): RUTGERS (-2.5 at Purdue)

* Big Ten home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone Under the total at a 38-16 (70.4%) rate since 2017
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UCLA-INDIANA (spread at IU -25.5, total at 54.5)

* Big 12 home favorites of 21 points or more have seen totals go Over at a 24-10 (70.6%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKLAHOMA STATE-TEXAS TECH (o/u at 56.5)

* Over the total is 19-7 (73.1%) in SEC non-neutral expected tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MISSOURI-VANDERBILT (spread at Vandy -2.5, total at 51.5), TEXAS A&M-LSU (spread at LSU +2.5, total at 47.5)

* Under the total is 67-46-1 (59.3%) in ACC expected tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SMU-WAKE FOREST (spread at WF +3.5, total at 53.5)

* Under the total is 53-30-1 (63.9%) in Conference USA expected tight matchups (-3 to +2.5 line range) since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WESTERN KENTUCKY-LOUISIANA TECH (spread at Louisiana Tech -3, total at 50.5), MISSOURI STATE-NEW MEXICO STATE (spread at NMSU +1.5, total at 50.5)

* Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 51-25-1 (67.1%) rate since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SOUTH ALABAMA-GEORGIA STATE (o/u at 56.5)

* Sun Belt small home favorites/pick-’ems in the PK to -5.5 line range and totals within the 52.5-65 range have had these totals go Under at a 42-17 (71.2%) rate since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GEORGIA SOUTHERN-ARKANSAS STATE (spread at ARKANSAS STATE -1.5, total at 63.5)

* Sun Belt road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 63-27 SU and 54-36 (60%) ATS since 2015
System Match (PLAY): SOUTH ALABAMA (-6.5 at Georgia State)

* Mountain West favorites of >= 4 points on Friday nights have gone 55-4 SU (~+38.05 units) since 2016
System Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE ML (at Colorado State)

* Mountain West home favorites of a touchdown or less (-0.5 to -7) with a total of >=60.5 have seen the total go Under at a 16-6 (72.7%) rate since 2016
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTAH STATE-NEW MEXICO (spread at UNM -3, total at 61.5)

Negative FADE trends:

• NEBRASKA is just 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 games as a Big Ten favorite
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (-7.5 vs. Northwestern)

• AKRON is on a 7-15 ATS skid in MAC play when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): AKRON (+9.5 vs. Buffalo)

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• BALL STATE has won 11 of its last 12 games ATS in MAC play when coming off an upset win
Trend Match (PLAY): BALL STATE (+5.5 at NIU)

• FRESNO STATE is on a perfect 9-0 ATS streak as a home underdog in Mountain West play
Trend Match (PLAY): FRESNO STATE (+3 vs. San Diego State)

• TEXAS TECH is on a nine-game ATS winning streak in conference play when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-38.5 vs. Oklahoma State)

• TROY is on an 18-4 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (-8.5 vs. Louisiana)

• BOISE STATE takes care of business as a Mountain West favorite of 20+ points, 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-21.5 at Nevada)

• LOUISIANA is on a 15-2 ATS surge in Sun Belt play when coming off a home loss
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISIANA (+8.5 at Troy)

• MICHIGAN is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games vs. Big Ten foes when coming off a home win
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (-14.5 at Michigan State)

• LOUISVILLE is on an impressive 12-4 ATS surge as an ACC home favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISVILLE (-25.5 vs. Boston College)

• LSU is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 SEC games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (+2.5 vs. Texas A&M)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

Best

* WISCONSIN is 12-9 SU and 13-8 ATS (61.9%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): WISCONSIN (+33.5 at Oregon)

* LSU is 17-7 SU and 15-7 ATS (68.2%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (+2.5 vs. Texas A&M)

* UTAH is 16-10 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (-13.5 vs. Colorado)

* KENT STATE is 9-25 SU and 20-14 ATS (58.8%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): KENT STATE (+7.5 vs. Bowling Green)

* KENTUCKY is 15-22 SU and 22-15 ATS (59.5%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (+9.5 vs. Tennessee)

* SOUTH FLORIDA is 7-27 SU and 20-14 ATS (58.8%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH FLORIDA (-4.5 at Memphis)

* TULSA is 11-23 SU and 20-13 ATS (60.6%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (+6 vs. Temple)

Worst

* UTAH STATE is 8-18 SU and 7-19 ATS (26.9%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH STATE (+3 at New Mexico)

Road revenge line range angles that have thrived
Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 52-43 ATS (54.7%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): VIRGINIA (-10.5 at North Carolina)

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 112-125 ATS (47.3%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WESTERN KENTUCKY (+3 at Louisiana Tech), NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-5.5 vs. Ball State)

Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 106-20 SU and 82-39-5 ATS (67.8%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (-17.5 vs. Syracuse), VIRGINIA (-10.5 at North Carolina)

Extreme Stat Next-Game CFB Betting Systems

Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 42-70 SU and 40-68-4 ATS (37%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+4.5 vs. South Florida)

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next game, going just 148-189-1 ATS (43.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (FADE): RICE (+10 vs. UConn)

Prolific offensive performances don’t last
FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 31-46 ATS (40.3%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): OREGON (-33.5 vs. Wisconsin)

Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders
Over the last 12 years, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 80-56 ATS (58.8%) in the follow-up game.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-7 at Mississippi State)

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on VSiN.com, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons, and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span would have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW MEXICO STATE, NORTH TEXAS, VIRGINIA TECH, BOISE STATE, RUTGERS, WAKE FOREST, OHIO, NORTHWESTERN, ARKANSAS, BUFFALO, UCONN, UTAH STATE, PITTSBURGH, BALL STATE, MINNESOTA, SOUTHERN MISS, TEMPLE, IOWA STATE, ALABAMA, NAVY, WASHINGTON STATE, TCU, STANFORD, TROY, OREGON, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, TEXAS A&M, TENNESSEE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 2023, it was 46.7%, in 2024, it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, PITTSBURGH, MIAMI OH, SOUTHERN MISS, VANDERBILT, WASHINGTON STATE, CINCINNATI, TROY, OREGON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in ’24, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KENNESAW STATE, SOUTH ALABAMA, NORTH TEXAS, BOISE STATE, VIRGINIA, RUTGERS, OHIO, BOWLING GREEN, SOUTH FLORIDA, UCONN, TEMPLE, ALABAMA, TCU, MICHIGAN, TEXAS A&M, TENNESSEE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SYRACUSE, UCLA, NORTHWESTERN, APPALACHIAN STATE, KANSAS STATE, UTAH STATE, WESTERN MICHIGAN, BALL STATE, MINNESOTA, BAYLOR, OKLAHOMA STATE, STANFORD, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, HOUSTON, COLORADO

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UCLA, OLE MISS, NORTHWESTERN, APPALACHIAN STATE, MINNESOTA, BYU, ILLINOIS, OKLAHOMA STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 season record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KENNESAW STATE, LOUISIANA TECH, DELAWARE, NEW MEXICO STATE, SOUTH ALABAMA, NORTH TEXAS, VIRGINIA TECH, BOISE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OREGON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the ’22 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2,364 games.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OHIO-EASTERN MICHIGAN

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOWLING GREEN-KENT STATE, AKRON-BUFFALO, UMASS-CENTRAL MICHIGAN, WESTERN MICHIGAN-MIAMI OH, TOLEDO-WASHINGTON STATE, TEXAS-MISSISSIPPI STATE, MICHIGAN-MICHIGAN STATE, COLORADO STATE-WYOMING

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): UMASS-CENTRAL MICHIGAN, BALL STATE-NORTHERN ILLINOIS, STANFORD-MIAMI FL, WISCONSIN-OREGON, HOUSTON-ARIZONA STATE

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOLEDO +1.5 (+6.4)
2. WISCONSIN +33.5 (+5.7)
3. BYU +2.5 (+4.5)
4. STANFORD +30.5 (+4.2)
5. UCLA +25.5 (+3.0)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SMU -3.5 (+4.5)
2. BUFFALO -9.5 (+3.9)
3. PITTSBURGH -6.5 (+3.9)
4. NEBRASKA -7.5 (+3.7)
5. SOUTHERN MISS -10.5 (+3.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +26.5 (+8.5)
2. OKLAHOMA STATE +38.5 (+7.9)
3. WEST VIRGINIA +15.5 (+6.9)
4. TOLEDO +1.5 (+3.8)
5. NORTHWESTERN +7.5 (+3.0)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA -25.5 (+10.2)
2. ALABAMA -12.5 (+5.9)
3. OREGON -33.5 (+5.4)
4. CENTRAL MICHIGAN -16.5 (+4.9)
5. TEMPLE -6 (+4.4)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LOUISIANA-TROY OVER 47.5 (+5.2)
2. BALL STATE-NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER 40.5 (+4.0)
3. BYU-IOWA STATE OVER 48.5 (+3.8)
4. AUBURN-ARKANSAS OVER 56.5 (+3.6)
5. MICHIGAN-MICHIGAN STATE OVER 47.5 (+2.6)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SOUTH FLORIDA-MEMPHIS UNDER 63.5 (-4.6)
2. SMU-WAKE FOREST UNDER 53.5 (-3.4)
3. KENNESAW STATE-FLA INTERNATIONAL UNDER 49.5 (-3.0)
4. SYRACUSE-GEORGIA TECH UNDER 53.5 (-2.7)
5. SOUTH ALABAMA-GEORGIA STATE UNDER 56.5 (-2.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WISCONSIN +33.5 (+13.3)
2. FRESNO STATE +3 (+11.8)
3. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +3 (+10.7)
4. RICE +10.5 (+8.4)
5. TOLEDO +1.5 (+8.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEBRASKA -7.5 (+11.7)
2. SMU -3.5 (+8.9)
3. MIAMI OH -1.5 (+6.7)
4. BOWLING GREEN -7.5 (+6.0)
5. TEXAS -7 (+5.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TEXAS-MISSISSIPPI STATE OVER 45.5 (+5.1)
2. TEXAS A&M-LSU OVER 47.5 (+4.3)
3. SMU-WAKE FOREST OVER 53.5 (+3.0)
4. ILLINOIS-WASHINGTON OVER 53.5 (+2.7)
5. WISCONSIN-OREGON OVER 44.5 (+2.3)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SOUTH FLORIDA-MEMPHIS UNDER 63.5 (-3.6)
2. UCLA-INDIANA 54.5 (-3.3)
3. SOUTH ALABAMA-GEORGIA STATE UNDER 56.5 (-2.7)
4. GEORGIA SOUTHERN-ARKANSAS STATE UNDER 62.5 (-2.1)
5. MICHIGAN-MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 47.5 (-1.9)

Comparing Effective Play-by-Play ratings to this week’s matchups

The following are taken from an article posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, looking at how Steve Makinen comes up with his ratings and any edges in games each weekend. As far as actionable items, here are the top 15 games for this weekend, showing the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences. Track these games to see how they fare, or back them already if you agree with the logic. Starting from Week 4 of 2025, these plays are 42-31 ATS (57.5%).

1. (143) RUTGERS at (144) PURDUE
Actual Line: PURDUE +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PURDUE -24.1
Difference: 26.6, Favors: PURDUE

2. (163) APPALACHIAN STATE at (164) OLD DOMINION
Actual Line: OLD DOMINION -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLD DOMINION -30.9
Difference: 17.4, Favors: OLD DOMINION

3. (145) SMU at (146) WAKE FOREST
Actual Line: WAKE FOREST +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WAKE FOREST -12.1
Difference: 15.6, Favors: WAKE FOREST

4. (191) WISCONSIN at (192) OREGON
Actual Line: OREGON -33.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON -48.3
Difference: 14.8, Favors: OREGON

5. (201) TOLEDO at (202) WASHINGTON STATE
Actual Line: WASHINGTON STATE -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON STATE +12.1
Difference: 13.6, Favors: TOLEDO

6. (137) MICHIGAN at (138) MICHIGAN STATE
Actual Line: MICHIGAN STATE +14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN STATE +25.7
Difference: 11.7, Favors: MICHIGAN

7. (161) AUBURN at (162) ARKANSAS
Actual Line: ARKANSAS -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS -12.9
Difference: 11.4, Favors: ARKANSAS

8. (119) CONNECTICUT at (120) RICE
Actual Line: RICE +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: RICE +19.5
Difference: 9.5, Favors: CONNECTICUT

9. (159) NORTHWESTERN at (160) NEBRASKA
Actual Line: NEBRASKA -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEBRASKA -16.4
Difference: 8.9, Favors: NEBRASKA

10. (185) BYU at (186) IOWA STATE
Actual Line: IOWA STATE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA STATE +5.7
Difference: 8.2, Favors: BYU

11. (207) COLORADO STATE at (208) WYOMING
Actual Line: WYOMING -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WYOMING -13.6
Difference: 7.6, Favors: WYOMING

12. (123) BAYLOR at (124) CINCINNATI
Actual Line: CINCINNATI -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CINCINNATI -11.6
Difference: 7.1, Favors: CINCINNATI

13. (171) UTAH STATE at (172) NEW MEXICO
Actual Line: NEW MEXICO -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEW MEXICO +4.1
Difference: 7.1, Favors: UTAH STATE

14. (195) ILLINOIS at (196) WASHINGTON
Actual Line: WASHINGTON -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON -11.6
Difference: 7.1, Favors: WASHINGTON

15. (133) BOSTON COLLEGE at (134) LOUISVILLE
Actual Line: LOUISVILLE -25.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISVILLE -18.5
Difference: 7, Favors: BOSTON COLLEGE

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* BALL STATE is 38-25-1 (60.3%) Under the total over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BALL STATE-NORTHERN ILLINOIS (o/u at 40.5)

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 26-17 (60.5%) ATS in conference games since ’20
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (+25.5 at Louisville)

* BUFFALO is 23-13-1 (63.9%) ATS at home since ’19
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-9.5 vs. Akron)

* CALIFORNIA is 29-16 (64.4%) ATS as an underdog since ’18
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+4.5 at Virginia Tech)

* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 5-14 ATS (26.3%) as a favorite in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-16.5 vs. UMass)

* CHARLOTTE is 5-18 (21.7%) ATS in its last 23 home games
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+26.5 vs. North Texas)

* FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL is 15-29 (34.1%) in conference games over the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+3 vs. Kennesaw State)

* FRESNO STATE is 35-23-1 (60.3%) Under the total since ’21
* SAN DIEGO STATE is 47-29 (61.8%) Under the total since ’19
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): SDSU-FRESNO STATE (o/u at 47.5)

* GEORGIA TECH is 11-23-1 ATS (32.4%) as a favorite since ‘18
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA TECH (-17.5 vs. Syracuse)

* ILLINOIS is 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in road games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): ILLINOIS (+4.5 at Washington)

* IOWA STATE is 35-18-1 ATS (66%) following up a SU loss since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): IOWA STATE (-2.5 vs. BYU)

* KANSAS is 7-18 (28%) ATS as a favorite since ’18
* KANSAS is 40-25-1 (61.5%) Over the total since ‘19
Trends Match: FADE KANSAS (-3 vs. Kansas State), also PLAY OVER the total in KSU-KU (o/u at 56.5)

* KENT STATE is 12-26 (31.6%) ATS in its last 38 games as an underdog
Trend Match (FADE): KENT STATE (+7.5 vs. Bowling Green)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 37-28-1 (56.9%) OVER the total since ‘19
* LOUISIANA TECH is 13-21 (38.2%) ATS in conference games over the last four seasons
Trends Match: FADE LOUISIANA TECH (-3 vs. Western Kentucky), also PLAY OVER the total in Western Kentucky-Louisiana Tech (o/u at 49.5)

* MEMPHIS is 11-3 ATS (78.6%) in its last 14 games as a home underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 vs. South Florida)

* MIAMI OHIO is on a 38-25-1 (60.3%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WESTERN MICHIGAN-MIAMI OH (o/u at 41.5)

* MICHIGAN is 20-9 (69%) ATS in road/neutral games in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (-14.5 at Michigan State)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 33-23 (58.9%) Under the total since ’21
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 20-12 (62.5%) ATS at home since ’21
Trends Match: PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7 vs. Texas), also PLAY UNDER the total in UT-MSU (o/u at 45.5)

* MISSOURI is 11-2 ATS (84.6%) in road/neutral games in the last two seasons
* MISSOURI is 1-18 SU in its last 19 games vs. top-10 SEC teams
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MISSOURI (+2.5 at Vanderbilt)

* NAVY is 16-9 ATS (64%) following a SU win in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-15.5 vs. FAU)

* NEBRASKA is 7-16-2 (30.4%) ATS at home in its last 25 games
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (-7.5 vs. Northwestern)

* NEW MEXICO is 20-44 (31.3%) ATS in conference games since ’17
* NEW MEXICO is 7-20 (25.9%) ATS as a favorite since ’18
* NEW MEXICO is 22-9 (71%) Over the total in the last two seasons
Trends Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (-3 vs. Utah State), also PLAY OVER the total in USU-UNM (o/u at 61.5)

* NEW MEXICO STATE is 34-24 (58.6%) ATS in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO STATE (+1.5 vs. Missouri State)

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 5-23-2 (17.9%) ATS in its last 30 home games
Trend Match (FADE): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-5.5 vs. Ball State)

* OHIO U is 25-11 ATS (69.4%) in conference games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (-12.5 at E Michigan)

* OLD DOMINION is 11-22 (33.3%) ATS at home since ’19
Trend Match (FADE): OLD DOMINION (-14.5 vs. Appalachian State)

* OLE MISS is 11-22-2 (33.3%) ATS in conference games since ’21
Trend Match (FADE): OLE MISS (+5.5 at Oklahoma)

* PITTSBURGH is 44-25 (63.8%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NC STATE-PITTSBURGH (o/u at 56.5)

* PURDUE is 6-17 ATS (26.1%) at home over the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PURDUE (+2.5 vs. Rutgers)

* RUTGERS is 26-12 (68.4%) to the Under in road games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): RUTGERS-PURDUE (o/u at 58.5)

* SOUTH ALABAMA is 3-13 ATS (18.8%) in its last 16 games as a road favorite
Trend Match (FADE): SOUTH ALABAMA (-6.5 at Georgia State)

* TEMPLE is 8-17 (32%) ATS in road games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEMPLE (-6 at Tulsa)

* TEXAS A&M is 5-12 SU and 4-12-2 ATS (25%) on the road since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS A&M (-2.5 at LSU)

* TEXAS TECH is 17-4 ATS (81%) after a SU loss over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-38.5 vs. Oklahoma State)

* UTAH STATE is 5-16 ATS (23.8%) in road/neutral games over the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH STATE (+3 at New Mexico)

* VANDERBILT is on an 8-15 (34.8%) ATS skid following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): VANDERBILT (-2.5 vs. Missouri)

* WEST VIRGINIA has gone 20-12 ATS (62.5%) at home in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (+15.5 vs. TCU)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Week 9

(111) SOUTH ALABAMA at (112) GEORGIA STATE
* GEORGIA STATE has covered six straight ATS in its meetings with USA
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+6.5 vs. South Alabama)

(121) AKRON at (122) BUFFALO
* BUFFALO is on an extended 13-5 SU and ATS run versus Akron
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-9.5 vs. Akron)

(127) TCU at (128) WEST VIRGINIA
* WEST VIRGINIA is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. TCU
Trend Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (+15.5 vs. TCU)

(133) BOSTON COLLEGE at (134) LOUISVILLE
* Over the total is 8-1 in this series since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOSTON COLLEGE-LOUISVILLE (o/u at 55.5)

(151) OHIO at (152) EASTERN MICHIGAN
* OHIO U is on a 7-1 SU and ATS run versus EMU
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (-12.5 at EASTERN MICHIGAN)

(153) BOWLING GREEN at (154) KENT STATE
* ROAD TEAMS are 11-2 ATS run in KSU-BGSU series
Trend Match (PLAY): BOWLING GREEN (-7.5 at Kent State)

(159) NORTHWESTERN at (160) NEBRASKA
* NORTHWESTERN is 6-1 ATS in its last seven visits to Lincoln
Trend Match (PLAY): NORTHWESTERN (+7.5 at Nebraska)

(161) AUBURN at (162) ARKANSAS
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the Arkansas-Auburn series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AUBURN-ARKANSAS (o/u at 57.5)

(165) MINNESOTA at (166) IOWA
* IOWA has dominated rival Minnesota recently, going 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): IOWA (-9.5 vs. Minnesota)

(173) COLORADO at (174) UTAH
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of this rivalry in Salt Lake City
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COLORADO-UTAH (o/u at 49.5)

(179) TEXAS A&M at (180) LSU
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Aggies-Tigers series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TEXAS A&M-LSU (o/u at 47.5)

(187) ALABAMA at (188) SOUTH CAROLINA
* UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS in the last six matchups between Bama and South Carolina
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (+11.5 vs. Alabama)

(189) SOUTH FLORIDA at (190) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are on 10-0-1 ATS run in this series
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH FLORIDA (-4.5 at Memphis)

(193) OKLAHOMA STATE at (194) TEXAS TECH
* Road teams are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 of the series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA STATE (+38.5 at Texas Tech)

(205) TENNESSEE at (206) KENTUCKY
* TENNESSEE is on 14-4 ATS overall run vs. UK, including a 9-1 ATS surge in Lexington
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-9.5 at Kentucky)

(207) COLORADO STATE at (208) WYOMING
* Home teams have covered six straight ATS in this series
Trend Match (PLAY): WYOMING (-5.5 vs. Colorado State)

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