College Football Week 1 Betting Systems:
I’ve made a habit of studying data for VSiN readers and unveiling foundational betting systems that they can employ in their handicapping routines. I tend to look for specific line ranges, types of games, and the point in the season in which games were played as the foundation for forming these strategies. For instance, the opening weeks of the college football season present interesting matchups each and every season, and the prices set up by oddsmakers can give bettors valuable insight as to how the “experts” are evaluating the games. I first dug into this material at this time a few years ago. Since then, I’ve had some good success in playing the findings. I’m here now to update the analysis after adding last year’s results. You’ll see I’ve once again qualified this year’s games that match these systems.
It’s typically believed that the bookmakers are the ones “in the know” and that they set their lines up for specific reasons. In turn, those lines are bet heavily by the professionals, who put an equal amount of work into prepping for the season. By following the lead of these two groups of people, all bettors should be able to take advantage. I feel that studying the results of games against the lines does that.
When I first conducted this study, I set out to find whether or not there were any relatively simple systems or concepts that bettors can take advantage of in the opening week(s) of the college football season. I consider these opening week(s) as Week 0 and Week 1. I chose to release the findings this week since the 2025 Week 0 slate was very limited. These systems are in addition to the COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY SYSTEM plays that I will be releasing for this week and the additional first 3 full weeks. Note that the Stability System started with an easy winner this past Saturday with Kansas.
After studying the Week 0/1 games for the last 12 seasons, I came up with eight different betting concepts that you might want to consider as you break down the games this week. All of them have a solid foundation, and I will explain that in each as I reveal the systems and games in play for 2025.
CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #1: Huge favorites (-37.5 points or more) have been almost automatic in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS (93.8%)!
Steve’s thoughts: When the opening week lines approach the 40-point favorite level, it’s clear that oddsmakers perceive a massive difference between the two teams in talent. In addition, the better team was always playing at home in these games as well, and that comes with an additional level of motivation as these hosts are anxious to get their promising seasons off to a good start against an opponent that is essentially powerless to stop them. The result has been easy wins and point spread covers, with these games producing an average score of 57.4-8.3 on games with average lines of -40.1. Unfortunately, I had to add the term “almost” to this system this year, as it lost ATS for the first time last year as Ohio State (-48.5) came up just shy against Akron, winning 52-6. In the other qualifying game last year, Oklahoma (-43) whipped Temple 51-3.
Teams qualifying for 2025: There are five games with massive lines for this year in Week 1, three officially qualifying at this point. That is significantly more than average, considering there have only been 16 in 12 seasons. These are the huge favorites that are expected to roll in their openers:
PENN STATE (-44.5) vs. Nevada
GEORGIA (-39.5) vs. Marshall
OLE MISS (-37.5) vs. Georgia State
Also, watch these lines closely up until kickoff:
MICHIGAN (-36.5) vs. New Mexico
USC (-35.5) vs. Missouri State
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CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #2: Home field advantage means a lot in early-season games between unfamiliar Power 4 non-conference foes. The hosts in these matchups have gone 28-16 SU and 25-15-4 ATS (62.5%) over the last decade-plus.
Steve’s thoughts: As I indicated in #1 above, there is a lot of motivation that comes from playing at home in the opening week(s) of the college football season. Particularly when the opening week(s) foe is another big-name school. The only line range in which these host teams haven’t covered their point spreads over the last 12 years has been in the -7 to -18.5 range, as those hosts are just 4-8-3 ATS. Otherwise, the home teams in these early-season showdowns have been extraordinarily reliable.
Teams qualifying for 2025: There are seven non-conference showdowns between Power 4 foes at campus sites this season, with a few others at neutral locales. None of these hosts are in the -7 to -18.5 range, so we don’t need to worry about that qualifier. As such, ALL seven hosts will test what has become a 21-7 ATS (75%) trend:
Auburn at BAYLOR (+2.5)
Georgia Tech at CALIFORNIA (+4)
Texas at OHIO STATE (-1.5)
Utah at UCLA (+6.5)
Alabama at FLORIDA STATE (+13.5)
LSU at CLEMSON (-4)
TCU at NORTH CAROLINA (+3.5)
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CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #3: Small favorites win the early neutral field showdowns between non-conference Power 4 foes, as those laying less than a touchdown are on a 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) run since 2013.
Steve’s thoughts: Oddsmakers have put in the work. They know how these teams stack up against one another. Particularly with the well-covered Power 4 teams. In these expectedly tight neutral field games, trust them; they usually lead you to water. That said, those setting the odds did miss with LSU last year against USC, as the Trojans pulled the upset.
Teams qualifying for 2024: There are just a few Week 0/1 non-conference Power 4 tilts to consider, but only one qualifies at the lien range needed at this point. The Thursday tilt between Nebraska and Cincinnati in Kansas City will once again test this angle, assuming the line doesn’t move towards Nebraska any further.
Power 5 non-conference NEUTRAL games qualifying
NEBRASKA (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati
Also watch South Carolina (-7.5) vs. Virginia Tech line closely for Sunday
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CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #4: There is a massive swing in expectation to win and/or cover when Group of 5 teams square off with Power 5 teams in weeks 0/1 over the last decade. As hosts, the Group of 5 teams have gone 32-19 ATS (62%), including Hawaii’s covers last week vs. Stanford and last year in Week 1 vs. UCLA. On the road or in neutral games, these Group of 5 teams are 89-123 ATS (42%) in that same time span. This includes Fresno State’s loss at Kansas last week. Bet accordingly based upon that 20% swing.
Steve’s thoughts: I must repeat, there is a lot of motivation that comes from playing at home in the opening week(s) of the college football season. Even when teams are supposedly overmatched in talent, the home field gives them the juice to compete. When on the road, these same overmatched teams have trouble staying in games. There are a lot of Group of 5-Power 4 matchups every year. Be sure to follow this trend while it continues.
Teams qualifying for 2025: By my count, there are 23 games scheduled in Week 1 that pit Group of 5 conference teams versus Power 4 foes, and only one of the Group of 5 teams is at home. The rest are in true road games. The latter are a typically difficult way to start a season.
Group of 5 HOME TEAMS vs. Power 4 foes (follow these)
Northwestern at TULANE -5.5
Mississippi State at SOUTHERN MISS (+11.5)
California at OREGON STATE (-3)
Group of 5 ROAD TEAMS vs. Power 4 foes (fade these)
OHIO U +14 at Rutgers
BUFFALO +17.5 at Minnesota
MIAMI (OH) +17.5 at Wisconsin
KENNESAW STATE +17.5 at Wake Forest
W MICHIGAN +20.5 at Michigan State
BALL ST +17.5 at Purdue
NEVADA +44.5 at Penn State
OLD DOMINION +22.5 at Indiana
NEW MEXICO +36.5 at Michigan
FLORIDA ATLANTIC +14.5 at Maryland
COASTAL CAROLINA +12.5 at Virginia
MARSHALL +39.5 at Georgia
TOLEDO +7.5 at Kentucky
COLORADO STATE +20.5 at Washington
HAWAII +17.5 at Arizona
GEORGIA STATE +37.5 at Ole Miss
TX-SAN ANTONIO +22.5 at Texas A&M
MISSOURI STATE +35.5 at USC
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CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #5: Favorites have been far more reliable at home and in neutral games in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013 (197-172 ATS 53.4%), than on the road (45-66-1 ATS 40.5%).
Steve’s thoughts: There is a lot of motivation that comes from playing at home in the opening week(s) of the college football season. Teams are excited, fans are excited, and you can generally feel the extra “juice” in the home stadiums. As you can see from the ATS results over the last 12 seasons, opening week home teams are generally the better bet, as they own the ATS ledger as both favorites and underdogs. If you’re a bettor that prefers to back “the better team”, recognize that there has been a near 13% difference between the success rates of home and road favorites beating their points spreads in Week 0/1 games of late. However, last year’s home/neutral favorites were only 11-19 ATS. Perhaps oddsmakers are catching on and pricing these teams higher now. Be careful.
Teams qualifying for 2025: By my count, there are 11 games lined up for this weekend featuring true road favorites playing in what could be more difficult environments than perceived. Several of these teams could see their season prospects flushed with a key early loss. Consider that with home underdog covers comes the possibility of outright upsets as well. Highlight these road favorite games when starting your handicapping routine and consider the fact that these “better teams” will be facing motivated home dogs:
BOISE STATE at South Florida
WYOMING at Akron
AUBURN at Baylor
UNLV at Sam Houston State
GEORGIA TECH at Colorado
TEMPLE at Massachusetts
UTAH at UCLA
MISSISSIPPI STATE at Southern Miss
ALABAMA at Florida State
NOTRE DAME at Miami
TCU at North Carolina
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CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #6: Oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-totaled games in weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48 or less and a favorite of 4 points or more, Under the total is 37-16 (69.8%) since 2013.
Steve’s thoughts: Remember, it is the oddsmakers who study these teams extensively throughout the offseason. When they find that teams aren’t going to be very explosive offensively, they basically tell you so by setting their opening totals low. As proof, the underdogs of +4 or more in these games have scored just around 15 PPG. When only one of the teams is capable of scoring, you don’t get too many Overs. Considering that the average college total has been in the 54ish range for the last decade-plus, a total of 48 may seem appetizing for an Over play, but it’s proven to be a profitable strategy to avoid that temptation. See low, expect low.
Games with totals of 48 or less and one team favored by 4-points or more qualifying for 2025: There are four games officially qualifying as Under plays as of press time and all of them involved Big Ten teams. There are a few other games with totals hovering between 48.5-49.5 as well, so watch those closely, as they could eventually wind up qualifying:
Ohio U-Rutgers
Buffalo-Minnesota
Miami (OH)-Wisconsin
Northwestern-Tulane
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CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #7: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents involving home underdogs in Weeks 0/1 have been explosive, particularly when not expected to be. In fact, since 2013, when totals on these games involving home dogs (or pick em’s) are 64 or less, the result has been 23 Overs, 9 Unders (71.9%).
Steve’s thoughts: There is a reason teams are home underdogs in Weeks 0/1, particularly when the opponents are from relatively even-matched conference levels. They are expected to be overmatched. While these home dogs do score relatively well (26.8 PPG), they tend to give up a lot of points as well (35.1), and with a record of 11-21 outright in these contests, they are often playing catch-up in the second half. This naturally leads to Overs. On totals averaging 54.8 PPG, these 62 PPG scored are a nice cushion for Over bettors. For what it’s worth, this system was 1-1 last year, and the game that won produced 101 points on a total of 57.5.
Group of 5 games with totals of 64 or less and the host playing as a pick em’ or underdog qualifying for 2025: There are four games officially qualifying as Over plays as of press time:
Boise State-South Florida
Wyoming-Akron
UNLV-Sam Houston State
Temple-Massachusetts
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CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #8: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents featuring a home favorite have been unexpectedly lower scoring, producing 41 Unders, 25 Overs (62.1%) since 2013.
Steve’s thoughts: In concept #7 above, I noted that the home underdogs in these Group of 5 non-conference games were able to produce enough points consistently to benefit Over bettors. It has been the opposite when the underdogs are on the road, as in that same 12-year time span, these early-season dogs have produced 22.9 PPG. This has resulted in a majority of these games going Under their respective totals. Group of 5 games with the host playing as a favorite qualifying for 2025: There are six games officially qualifying as Under plays as of press time:
Central Michigan-San Jose State
UTEP-Utah State
Georgia Southern-Fresno State
Eastern Michigan-Texas State
Rice-Louisiana
