Not a great week at all for me with my best bets, .500 in college and a brutal showing in NFL. I hate looking back in betting, and only tend to do it when I think I can learn from a rough stretch. That said, after starting 0-2 in the weeknight games, I was able to put another solid Saturday together in college football, even despite another couple of very tough losses to swallow. We welcome in November this weekend, and with it, I bring an 81-65-3 ATS record, good for 55.5%. This week’s biggest games figure to come out of the Big Ten, as the league’s top two teams hit the road for difficult tests, and of course, there is the usual allotment of top-tier SEC action. I have these plays after pouring through the VSiN College Football Analytics Report for Week 10 college football best bets:

Tulane at Charlotte

Thursday, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)

 

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Sometimes, the eventual blowout games come in spots that might not look the easiest on paper. However, below the surface, you’ll find all the traits of a classic mismatch. Tulane is red hot, winning five straight games while scoring 45.8 PPG. Charlotte has lost back-to-back games and comes off a disappointing result in which it had a chance to upset Memphis. I can see the argument for why someone might like the 49ers here at home considering they did play well against the Tigers. 

However, Charlotte is on a 3-12 ATS skid at home, and on top of that, Tulane is a program that takes care of business when favored, 45-22 ATS in that role since 2014. I actually like the fact that over 80% of the handle is on the Green Wave, too, since when the majority of the number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)! In terms of my ratings, Tulane’s effective strength is +26.7; Charlotte is +0.8. That’s quite a separation and explains why this line is where it is.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Let’s back Tulane -17 on Thursday night

Georgia State at Connecticut

Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET (CBSSN)

To me, one of the worst things that can happen to a college football team is to play respectable football consistently, yet continue to lose week after week. That is what is happening to Georgia State lately, as the Panthers have lost four straight games despite being competitive in each one. I think, eventually, a team will break down, and for GSU, that point could come this week at a UConn team that has played energized football this year in a stand-alone Friday night game. 

At 2-5 and yet to face some of the tougher teams in the Sun Belt, a bowl game looks less and less likely for GSU. Keep in mind, they’ve played in the postseason in four of the last five years. Head coach Jim Mora Jr’s team sits at 5-3 and can clinch a bowl berth with a win here. This will incredibly be their sixth straight home game! In terms of my key numbers, GSU sports and ESR of +0.4, while the Huskies are +12.7. UConn is simply better and likely in the more motivated mindset here. I expect a fired-up crowd in Storrs.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Let’s take UConn -7.5 on Friday night

Virginia Tech at Syracuse

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (CW)

How does a team come back from the loss Syracuse endured in a high-profile game against Pittsburgh last Friday night? In truth, the Orange played reasonably well, dominating the yardage and time of possession metrics only to lose by 28 points because of turnovers. Now they host a Virginia Tech team that seems to be finally finding its footing in 2024, having won its last three games outright and ATS. If you recall, the Hokies were the team that scored my highest stability rating at the outset of the season. While I am surprised that they didn’t get off to a better start, it seems like they are getting right and the proper time to make a late-season push for an ACC title bid. 

The defense has been particularly sharp the last three weeks, allowing just 11.3 PPG. And while the QB Kyron Drones-led offense struggled a bit in last week’s win over Georgia Tech, it shouldn’t be a concern since over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 78-45 ATS (63.4%) in the follow-up contest. My power ratings say this line should be VT -7.4, my effective strength #’s show that VT is 12.4 points better.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 4-points with a Hokies team finally rounding into form

Air Force at Army

Saturday, 12:00 pm. ET (CBS)

I don’t think I’ve ever seen quite a swing in a line from one year to the next than what is happening in this Air Force-Army service academies matchup. Last year, Air Force was an 18.5-point favorite and lost! Now, after a 1-6 start for the Falcons combined with a 7-0 record for Army, the line has shifted to where the Knights are 22.5-point chalk! Absolutely crazy! That said, the number could actually be higher based on what we’ve seen from each of the teams thus far, so what is it going to take for Air Force to compete on Saturday? 

I’d say a heavy dose of motivation, and I look for them to get it in two forms. First, from the point spread. This is an absolute insult to any current or former player who has worn the blue and white in Colorado Springs. A 22.5-point dog to Army?! Underdogs are on an 8-0 ATS streak in the Air Force-Army rivalry. Second, payback from last year’s 23-3 loss, which at the time was the first blemish for the Falcons after an 8-0 start. Since then, they’ve gone 2-10. They can easily blame Army for it. The Air Force defense has allowed only 24.2 effective points per game, and only one opponent has exceeded 34. Army will probably need 34 to give itself a chance to cover here. I don’t see it.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Air Force as the huge +22.5-point underdog to Army

Northwestern at Purdue

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (BTN)

Both Northwestern and Purdue were projected to be among the bottom feeders in the Big Ten this season although I’d have to say that the Wildcats have been the far more competitive team. At 3-5, this game at Purdue looks like the only remaining realistic chance for a victory, as Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois loom after their bye week. Is this year’s Northwestern bunch resilient enough to get that win after resounding losses to a pair of hot teams at the time in Wisconsin and Iowa? I think so, and I believe it’s because of their defense. That will be the only truly decent unit playing in this game. 

Head coach David Braun’s team ranks in the top 40 in the country in effective yards per play allowed, holding teams to over a yard per play fewer than they typically average. That is almost 1.5 yards per play better than Purdue. In fact, the Boilermakers are allowing an atrocious 9.6 yards per pass attempt. I believe it is the reason the Wildcats are favored and I expect them to extend on their 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six games record at Purdue. This season is already flushed for the Boilermakers.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Northwestern -1 at Purdue

Indiana at Michigan State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (PEACOCK)

I think it’s about time to get back on this Indiana train, as it’s been a few weeks since I’ve backed the Hoosiers. They are certainly deserving of the support and proved last week in the 31-17 win over Washington that the injury to QB Kurtis Rourke wasn’t going to slow them down. In fact, back Tayven Jackson looked every bit as effective, if not more, in taking over.  If you’re still not buying into head coach Curt Cignetti’s team, you might want to consider that in terms of my effective strength ratings, they are currently the #5 best team in the country. That is a metric that shows how well a team is actually playing against their strength of schedule. This team is very good, and its 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record reflects it. 

Will this game in East Lansing prove to be a dangerous spot, however? It could, but the Spartans are in a difficult mental spot, having lost a winnable game against rival Michigan last week to drop to 4-4. Some of the holdover players for IU might also remember losing a tough one at home to Sparty last year, and college football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 96-15 SU and 74-32-5 ATS (69.8%) since 2016. On top of that, this has been a road-dominated series, with road teams going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six games of the IND-MSU series.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: I’ll get back on the train with Indiana -7.5 at Michigan St

North Carolina at Florida State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ACCN)

At last check on Wednesday, there was 84% of the handle and 87% of the bet volume getting behind North Carolina is this game at Florida State. It’s understandable that the whole world has turned on FSU here, with the Seminoles off to a 1-7 start. However, it could be argued that they are not the team in this matchup that is theoretically underachieving this season. UNC is just 1-6-1 ATS this season, and my power ratings even after all that has happened show that FSU should be the -2.5-point favorite. 

Getting back to the DK betting splits, the Tarheels are actually 0-4-1 ATS this season when the public has gotten behind them. Plus, going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 82-97 ATS (45.8%). This rivalry also shows a trend of underdogs on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS streak in the UNC-FSU series. Sometimes, the best teams to back are the ones that look untouchable.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: I’ll side with Florida State +2.5 in Tallahassee vs. UNC

Florida at Georgia

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

It’s been two weeks since Georgia ripped through Texas to seemingly gain its spot atop the perch of college football in the public’s eyes. Not surprisingly, the Bulldogs are getting a ton of love for this rivalry game versus Florida. Played in Jacksonville, this will be a revenge spot for Florida, who lost 43-20 last year. Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 47-30 ATS (61%). To me, this year’s Gators are way better, and in my opinion, Georgia still isn’t living up to its 2023 self, at least through seven games. 

Head coach Kirby Smart’s team is just 2-5 ATS thus far, and has shown too many signs of sloppiness and disinterest. That could be dangerous against a team like the Gators, who are turning it on lately, having won their last four against the spread. In my recent ratings, Florida is the 9th best team in the country lately, just two spots and 1.4 PPG worse than Georgia. For the entire season, in the effective strength ratings, there is only a 12.2-point separation. I think this number is overpriced a bit after the Bulldogs’ win in Austin. I don’t think it’s going to be that easy for them.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Florida +16.5 to get a 5th straight ATS win

Tulsa at UAB

Saturday, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN+)

I would bet that if you were to spot and fade the home favorite that is the worst one each week in that role, you would wind up being pretty successful every season. To me, this week, that choice is relatively obvious: it is head coach Trent Dilfer’s UAB team. The Blazers have lost six straight games, all by double-digit margins, yet are favored over a Tulsa team that is coming off its best result of the season, a 46-45 win at UTSA. Yet somehow, 78% of the early handle coming in is showing support for the hosts. 

Need I remind you that going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 82-97 ATS (45.8%). I really like backing these DK splits systems most when I feel like the team being backed deserves no such support. We also have a trend showing that Tulsa is 24-10-1 (70.6%) ATS in Road/Neutral games over the last five seasons to boot.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Tulsa +3 (or FADE UAB -3 if that makes it feel easier)

Kansas State at Houston

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

I see a potentially hidden rout in Houston this week as Kansas State looks to continue its quest for a spot in the Big 12 title game. Why do I think it’s “hidden” and not an obviously dangerous landmine type of game? Well, mostly because the Cougars can’t score consistently, and KSU does. The Wildcats are averaging 32.8 PPG and have only been held to fewer than 29 points once. From an “effective standpoint,” that equates to more like 40.2 PPG. Houston, on the other hand, comes off a big win over Utah, but was only able to muster 17 points in that contest against another struggling offense. That marked the sixth time in eight games that they had been held to 17 points or fewer. The Cougars’ season average is 14.1 PPG, and not surprisingly, my effective strength numbers have them pegged for exactly 14 here. Kansas State remains a very focused team and is always one of the more reliable bets around, going 43-26-2 (62.3%) ATS since 2019.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Let’s back K-State laying the 13.5 at Houston

UCLA at Nebraska

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN)

If I have a favorite DK Betting Splits system for totals, it has to be this one: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%). Some of the totals for these games get so low that it’s hard to figure out why. UCLA and Nebraska are two teams that have played very difficult schedules to date. 

In fact, the Bruins have played the country’s toughest slate, according to my numbers. As such, these offenses figure to be better than the numbers they have posted to date: 17.4 PPG for UCLA and 24 PPG for Nebraska. Using my formula for figuring out their “effective” averages, they are both a little over 31 PPG. Now, that puts this very low total of 40 into question if you ask me, and it explains why 87% of the bet volume at DK has opted for OVER. If that weren’t enough, the Bruins come off their best offensive outing of the year, a 35-32 win, and Nebraska returns home after for the first time since 10/5 and has scored 30 PPG in Lincoln.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go OVER 40 in UCLA-Nebraska

Oregon at Michigan

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

For as much as Michigan isn’t what it has been the last few seasons, the Wolverines are still a formidable foe in the Big House. In fact, they are currently 5-1 at home, with the only blemish coming at the hands of Texas. To me, this game against Oregon feels somewhat similar to the USC contest back in September, when the Trojans had to go on the road deep into Big Ten country and win a tough game. 

Clearly, I realize that the Ducks are a better team than USC, but according to my effective strength numbers, that difference is only 5.3 points right now. Using my ratings as the logic, my power and effective strength ratings say this line should be 13, and my bettors ratings say it should only be 11. I think there is plenty of value as this line stays above 14. Let’s not forget Michigan is one of the best ATS teams in recent years at 31-19-1 in the last 51 games and is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. Big Ten foes when coming off a home win. The Wolverines have some “juice” again after beating rival Michigan State last week.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Michigan +15 to at least put a scare into Oregon

Massachusetts at Mississippi State

Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET (SECN)

I understand the logic when oddsmakers hang lofty totals on games involving teams that typically give up a lot of points, but in my mind, teams have to be able to take advantage of that weakness offensively to threaten a shootout type of game. I’m not sure that UMass/Mississippi State fits the bill of a game deserving of a 60 total, and I am not surprised that nearly 80% of the handle at DraftKings thinks the same way I do. 

That said, the average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 51-38 (57.3%). Of note statistically, in its six games this season vs. FBS opponents, UMass has averaged just 15.5 PPG and was held to 3 by its other SEC opponent it faced. The Bulldogs haven’t topped 31 since the 56-7 opener against FCS Eastern Kentucky. I think it’s a stretch to project both teams scoring a lot here, and that would make it tough for this game to surpass 60.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 60 in UMass-Mississippi State

Texas A&M at South Carolina

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

I mentioned in the UCLA-Nebraska writeup that my favorite DK betting splits system is the following: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%). Another game that fits the bill for this week is Texas A&M-South Carolina, showing a number of 44. This is a matchup of two teams that are playing pretty well offensively right now. 

The Aggies, who have won seven straight games, have topped the 34-point mark in their last three, and are averaging 32.3, which based upon the teams they have played, equates to an effective 41.6 PPG. This will be the lowest total they will have played to as well this season. South Carolina’s offense is vastly underrated, having topped the 30-point mark in four of its seven games. The Gamecocks are also averaging an effective 41.2 PPG after considering all of the tough defenses they have faced. It’s not often you’ll get two teams playing this well offensively, sporting a total of 44. It’s no wonder the DK betting public loves Over, as do I.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: I’ll go OVER 44 in the Texas A&M-South Carolina contest

Kentucky at Tennessee

Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET (SECN)

If you know anything about the history of the Kentucky-Tennessee rivalry, the Vols have dominated. In fact, recently, Tennessee is on a 14-3 ATS run in head-to-head play. It’s been particularly ugly in Knoxville, where six of the last eight games were double-digit wins for the hosts, including two years ago, when the Vols won big, 44-6. Will this year be any different? A few weeks ago, I would have said yes, but it seems that Kentucky has lost its grit and vigor since head coach Mark Stoops hinted that he needed more NIL money to get better players. What a rip to his team, and it almost feels as if they have quit since. In their last three games, they have been swept by the likes of Vandy, Florida, and Auburn, not exactly the best of the best when it comes to the SEC. The point margin in those games was 92-43 as well. 

Head coach Josh Heupel’s team, meanwhile, seems to have found its groove again and comes off the huge upset of Alabama two weeks ago. So not only do the Vols have the momentum, but they are also well-rested and look poised to make a late-season push for the first-ever expanded playoffs. Tennessee is a 16.5-point favorite but should be -20.5, according to my power ratings.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Let’s take Tennessee -16.5 to roll over downtrodden Kentucky

Ohio State at Penn State

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The recent head-to-head history between Ohio State and Penn State would suggest that the Buckeyes’ have the edge in this week’s huge game at State College, as would the lack of recent success for head coach James Franklin’s club in these “big games.” However, this Nittany Lions team seems like it could be different, and having avoided the upset at Wisconsin last week, Penn State is 32-15 (68.1%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2019. The last time they faced Ohio State as a 3.5-point home dog, in 2018, they nearly pulled the upset, with the Buckeyes scoring the final 13 points to win 27-26. 

Plus, Ohio State is showing series warts right now. After losing at Oregon, head coach Ryan Day’s team followed that up with a home stinker versus Nebraska. Were the Buckeyes guilty of looking ahead to this one? Possibly, but anyone who has followed me and my best bets over the last two years knows that I value the home-field advantage in these big games, especially when the host qualifies for my series of three betting systems: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 185-90 SU and 159-108-8 ATS (59.6%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 108-20 SU & 79-45-4 ATS (63.7%). 3)  Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 55-17 SU & 48-21-3 ATS (69.6%) since ’17. If I didn’t think Penn State had a shot to win, I wouldn’t take the points.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Penn State +3.5 here at home versus Ohio State

For more Week 10 college football analysis, visit the Week 10 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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