College Football Week 10 T Shoe Index Bets:

This time of year is as fun – and hectic for someone like me – as it gets; we’ve got college football, NFL, NBA, and within a week will have men’s and women’s college basketball getting started. There’s always something to watch and bet on, and my T Shoe Index is doing it all. 

Be sure to follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to stay up to date on all things TSI, and beginning sometime in December, I will have daily projections and bets posted right here at VSiN.com for men’s and women’s college basketball. 

 

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As we’ve done every week of the college football season on Thursdays, let’s look at where the market has shifted throughout the week and see where TSI agrees or disagrees with some of that movement.

Kansas State (-13) vs Houston, O/U 45.5

3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Wildcats will travel to Houston in a game that’s expected to be slightly impacted by some rain and wind, which makes me reluctant to lay the 13 points with Kansas State, despite some value on the number according to TSI’s 16-point projection here; however, it does make me like the Under even more. I project the total at 44.5, which is below the key number of 45, and adding some potential weather impacts on top of that certainly don’t hurt. 

This season, the Wildcats are 2-1 to the Under at home, doing so by 7 points per game; similarly, Houston is 3-1 to the Under on the road, also doing so by 7 points per game. These teams are 89th and 114th nationally in plays per game, so neither team wants to play with much tempo. The Houston offense is abysmal but its defense is actually top 30 in TSI, which should be good enough to slow Kansas State enough to keep the game under a total that I don’t think Houston itself will contribute much to. 

This O/U opened at sharp offshore books at around 47, and has been bet down enough to indicate the Under is the right play here, but not enough to make it a reckless play to tail the movement. This game also has the potential for a good live Under bet as well, if Kansas State gets the ball first and scores on a scripted drive, so keep an eye out for that if you’re a live bettor. 

Bet: Under 45.5 (Play to 45)

Minnesota (-3) vs Illinois, O/U 45.5

Noon ET (FS1)

Staying consistent with the theme here, how about another Midwestern Under? After opening at Circa at 46.5, this total has been bet down a point – again, indicative of the market intent but not far enough to make it unreasonable to tail – and last week when the initial line move aligned with TSI, those totals went 12-3 ATS, and have hit over 60% the last few weeks (as I retroactively tracked that once I noticed the trend). 

TSI projects 40.5 in this game, and when looking at the more recent conference game data, I’d actually make it more like 39. These teams are 91st and 118th in plays per game, so similar to the previous game I mentioned, these teams want to be more methodical offensively and play sound defense. 

I also look for Illinois to be a bit worn down this week after getting physically and mentally drained by Oregon last week as the Ducks suffocated the Illini for four quarters. I bet Minnesota -1 on Sunday, so if you’re a SGP player, a Minnesota ML and Under bet makes sense to me here as well. 

Bet: Under 45.5 (Play to 45)

For more Week 10 college football analysis, visit the Week 10 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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