Betting Edges for College Football Week 10 & NFL Week 9:
We’ve put together consecutive non-profitable weeks for the new football strength metric called the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings. The college football weekly streak of .500 or better ended at five weeks by going 6-8-1 ATS, while the NFL .500 streak reached five. As such, we are now at 48-39-1 ATS for college football, good for 55.2%. With all five weeks of pro games having produced a 3-3 ATS record each time, we are at 15-15 ATS for the duration. Considering that those records are each better than what I’m doing on my Best Bets columns, perhaps I missed the boat by not simply taking these games.
We’ll see what this week holds, but our Effective Play-by-Play ratings may be starting to even out according to overall team power ratings, or perhaps oddsmakers are catching up to these teams’ strengths and weaknesses. At this point, I will continue posting these games and ratings every week, but any bigger negative turns and I may go away. So, once again, I am the point spread versus rating variances and providing these games for readers. This piece covers the Week 10 college and Week 9 NFL betting boards.
If you are new to this analysis, I would encourage you to go back and read any of the earlier articles on the introduction and further details of the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings for college and pro football. Those can be found under my author tag. For now, here are the updated top 25 college teams and all pro team current ratings, plus the top variances in terms of my new rating metric against the actual lines for this weekend, CFB Week 10 and NFL Week 9.
College Football Top 25 teams in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. OREGON: 77.1
2. NOTRE DAME: 72.2
3. OHIO STATE: 71.2
4. USC: 70.8
5. TEXAS A&M: 68.7
6. INDIANA: 68.6
7. ARKANSAS: 65.2
8. MICHIGAN: 64.9
9. TENNESSEE: 63.8
10. FLORIDA STATE: 62.9
11. VANDERBILT: 62.8
12. TEXAS TECH: 62.6
13. WASHINGTON: 62.6
14. UTAH: 62
15. ALABAMA: 61.6
16. MIAMI FL: 60.4
17. OLE MISS: 60.4
18. GEORGIA TECH: 59.8
19. OKLAHOMA: 58.8
20. GEORGIA: 58
21. MISSOURI: 57.7
22. CINCINNATI: 57.5
23. OLD DOMINION: 57
24. SOUTH FLORIDA: 56.8
25. WAKE FOREST: 56.3
Oregon maintains the top spot after a somewhat sloppy 21-7 win over Wisconsin. Notre Dame, Ohio State and USC settle in at the Nos. 2 through 4 spots but are a good distance behind the Ducks. Oregon still has a game ahead with USC. Notre Dame’s toughest remaining game is a clash with 43rd-ranked Pittsburgh in a couple of weeks. Ohio State is lined up for its annual end-of-season battle with Michigan, which will pit a pair of top-8 teams in EPBP.
The case of Old Dominion is causing me to rethink some parts of this analysis. Clearly, the Monarchs played their best football out of the gate, reaching as high as No. 2 on this list. They have been in steady decline since, dropping to No. 23 this week. While they are still the top Group of 5 team here, just ahead of South Florida, it’s obvious that this rating set could use some sort of recency attribute or even a forecast model, which would better account for how a team is faring lately. There are some big games this week between top-rated EPBP teams, including Oklahoma-Tennessee and Cincinnati-Utah, so the list should see another shakeup next Tuesday.
All NFL Teams Ranked in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: 34.1
2. LOS ANGELES RAMS: 33.4
3. GREEN BAY PACKERS: 33.1
4. DETROIT LIONS: 30.7
5. BALTIMORE RAVENS: 30.1
6. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: 28.9
7. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: 28.6
8. DENVER BRONCOS: 27.8
9. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: 27.8
10. HOUSTON TEXANS: 27.6
11. ATLANTA FALCONS: 27.1
12. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: 25.6
13. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: 25.4
14. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: 25.1
15. BUFFALO BILLS: 24.2
16. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: 23.9
17. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: 23.7
18. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: 22.9
19. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: 22.5
20. ARIZONA CARDINALS: 21.4
21. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: 21.4
22. DALLAS COWBOYS: 21
23. NEW YORK GIANTS: 20.5
24. NEW YORK JETS: 20.2
25. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: 19.7
26. CAROLINA PANTHERS: 19.1
27. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 19.1
28. CLEVELAND BROWNS: 18.6
29. CHICAGO BEARS: 18.5
30. MIAMI DOLPHINS: 18.5
31. CINCINNATI BENGALS: 16.9
32. TENNESSEE TITANS: 13.5
The Seahawks stay in the top spot after their bye week and even bump up 0.2 on the scale based on what their prior opponents did over the weekend. The Rams and Packers hold down the Nos. 2 and 3 spots, respectively, while Detroit climbs to No. 4, also by not playing. Interestingly, the Ravens drop a spot despite their decisive 30-16 win over Chicago. That game was No. 1 on our list of top NFL variances from the point spread last week, but the metric showed that Baltimore should have won by 17.3 points to maintain its level of play. The Ravens came up a bit short against one of the lower-rated teams, thus the slight drop. However, coach John Harbaugh’s team still did get the ATS win for our top games list. Looking at the bottom half of the rankings, it’s noteworthy that three of the bottom 17 teams are current division leaders, the Patriots, Buccaneers and Steelers. Watch for upcoming spots where those teams may be getting too much credit from oddsmakers.
Comparing the EYPP equivalent ratings to the actual Week 10 college football lines:
Here are the top 15 games for this weekend, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage factored into the differences.
1. (351) RUTGERS at (352) ILLINOIS
Actual Line: ILLINOIS -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ILLINOIS -28.7
Difference: 16.2 – Favors: ILLINOIS
2. (385) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (386) ARKANSAS
Actual Line: ARKANSAS -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS -18.2
Difference: 13.7 – Favors: ARKANSAS
3. (389) OLD DOMINION at (390) LOUISIANA-MONROE
Actual Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE +16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE +27.7
Difference: 11.2 – Favors: OLD DOMINION
4. (393) USC at (394) NEBRASKA
Actual Line: NEBRASKA +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEBRASKA +15.9
Difference: 9.4 – Favors: USC
5. (303) JAMES MADISON at (304) TEXAS STATE
Actual Line: TEXAS STATE +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS STATE -2.1
Difference: 9.1 – Favors: TEXAS STATE
6. (405) HAWAII at (406) SAN JOSE STATE
Actual Line: SAN JOSE STATE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN JOSE STATE -10.7
Difference: 8.2 – Favors: SAN JOSE STATE
7. (327) NOTRE DAME at (328) BOSTON COLLEGE
Actual Line: BOSTON COLLEGE +28.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOSTON COLLEGE +36.1
Difference: 7.6 – Favors: NOTRE DAME
8. (339) PENN STATE at (340) OHIO STATE
Actual Line: OHIO STATE -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OHIO STATE -28.1
Difference: 7.6 – Favors: OHIO STATE
9. (333) INDIANA at (334) MARYLAND
Actual Line: MARYLAND +21.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARYLAND +27.5
Difference: 6 – Favors: INDIANA
10. (349) VANDERBILT at (350) TEXAS
Actual Line: TEXAS -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS +4.2
Difference: 5.7 – Favors: VANDERBILT
11. (305) JACKSONVILLE STATE at (306) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
Actual Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +0.4
Difference: 5.6 – Favors: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
12. (325) OKLAHOMA at (326) TENNESSEE
Actual Line: TENNESSEE -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TENNESSEE -8.6
Difference: 5.6 – Favors: TENNESSEE
13. (377) ARKANSAS STATE at (378) TROY
Actual Line: TROY -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TROY -12.6
Difference: 5.6 – Favors: TROY
14. (369) VIRGINIA at (370) CALIFORNIA
Actual Line: CALIFORNIA +4
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CALIFORNIA +9.4
Difference: 5.4 – Favors: VIRGINIA
15. (335) PURDUE at (336) MICHIGAN
Actual Line: MICHIGAN -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN -15.5
Difference: 5 – Favors: PURDUE
Comparing the Effective Play-by-Play equivalent ratings to the actual Week 9 NFL lines:
Here are the top six games for this weekend’s games, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences.
1. (473) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at (474) WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Actual Line: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +11.3
Difference: 7.8 – Favors: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
2. (455) ATLANTA FALCONS at (456) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Actual Line: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +0.8
Difference: 6.3 – Favors: ATLANTA FALCONS
3. (459) CAROLINA PANTHERS at (460) GREEN BAY PACKERS
Actual Line: GREEN BAY PACKERS -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GREEN BAY PACKERS -17.8
Difference: 5.3 – Favors: GREEN BAY PACKERS
4. (467) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at (468) LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Actual Line: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -1.2
Difference: 4.2 – Favors: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
5. (457) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at (458) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Actual Line: PITTSBURGH STEELERS +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PITTSBURGH STEELERS +6.1
Difference: 3.1 – Favors: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
6. (465) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at (466) TENNESSEE TITANS
Actual Line: TENNESSEE TITANS +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TENNESSEE TITANS +13
Difference: 3 – Favors: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
