Buffalo vs. Miami
MACtion is backtion as we have two games on Tuesday night featuring the Mid-American Conference. The craze that started it all with weekday games will take the place of Conference USA to keep up our run of 61 straight days of football.
Ohio vs. Akron and Buffalo vs. Miami of Ohio are the two games on the docket, as the Buckeye State will enjoy some perfect fall conditions for these matchups. You never know what you might get with MACtion, but weather is not a concern here. That means pretty straightforward handicaps, where I have an opinion I like more in the Buffalo vs. Miami game, but will shed some light on Ohio vs. Akron as well.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 2, 7:30 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 10 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Buffalo at Miami (OH) (-6, 44) Prediction
Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Both teams are 3-1 in conference play heading into this one, so it’s a big game in terms of the MAC Championship Game on the first Friday of December in Detroit. Conference records require a lot of context in this league. Some teams are downright awful and others are much more formidable. In the case of these two, the Bulls have beaten Toledo, UMass, and Bowling Green, while Miami has upended UMass, Akron, and Central Michigan. The RedHawks also have a stunning loss to BG, while Buffalo’s defeat came at the hands of Western Michigan, the only 4-1 team in the conference heading into this week.
Ohio is 4-0 in league play and Miami will see them next week in this Tuesday timeslot. Buffalo would only see the Bobcats in Detroit if it came to that. But, a lot of the teams in this conference are really poor. Usually you see five or six teams jockeying for position at the top, a team or two in the middle, and then doormats like Akron, Kent State, UMass, and new for this year, Sacramento State. From a strength of schedule standpoint, Miami is 128th and Buffalo is 138th per Jeff Sagarin, who grades all FBS and FCS teams. There are 138 FBS teams.
You may be wondering why we have a six-point spread with teams that have identical records and similar strengths of schedule. Well, it’s because Buffalo is 137th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Bulls only have 4.52 yards per play overall, with 4.88 in MAC play. The RedHawks, meanwhile, have 6.16 YPP, though they have regressed down to 5.57 YPP in conference action.
Basically, Miami’s offense has been dependent on which QB has been out there. David McComb has a 7/1 TD/INT ratio with a 63.1% completion rate, while Caleb Heavner has a 3/4 TD/INT ratio with a 54.9% completion rate. Heavner has been the much more effective runner, but McComb is a much better thrower, which seems important as a quarterback. Unfortunately, McComb hasn’t played since Sept. 26 against UConn, which is why the YPP numbers have fallen. Heavner was just 18-of-33 last week for 221 yards with a touchdown and two picks and that has arguably been his most effective start in conference play. He was a combined 14-of-36 against UMass and Akron.
Sadly, McComb is out for the season, so the RedHawks have had to rely heavily on the run. The Bulls rank 87th in the nation in yards per carry allowed with 4.28, but they allowed over five yards per tote in non-conference play and have allowed just 3.5 yards per carry in conference action. While the overall defensive numbers are not great, the Bulls have allowed just 5.1 YPP and just 327.8 yards per game to MAC opponents.
While the defense has clearly improved for Buffalo in a conference setting, the offense has only made modest strides. The running game has been more effective, going from 3.91 YPC to 4.37 and head coach Pete Lembo has relied on that a lot with an average of 45 rush attempts per MAC game. That’s because his two QBs have combined for a 51.6% completion rate. Messiah Burch is the best offensive player on the field for the Bulls and he has 5.6 yards per carry. Sophomore QB Jason Wright has only thrown for 171, 134, and 127 yards in Buffalo’s three conference wins.
Miami’s defense has improved by over a yard per carry since conference play began and they rank 26th nationally in yards per carry allowed and have given up just 2.37 yards per carry in conference games. That sounds like the recipe to an Under in my mind.
Pick: Under 44
Other Tuesday Game
Ohio (-14, 51.5) vs. Akron: The Bobcats have reeled off wins over Kent State, Central Michigan, Sacramento State, and Eastern Michigan on their path to the top of the MAC standings. Akron has lost all four conference games and a 1-7 record means that bowl eligibility is no longer possible. The Zips are well-rested here, as they haven’t played since losing their annual Super Bowl – the Wagon Wheel rivalry game against Kent State – by a 35-20 score back on Oct. 24. Akron only has one loss this season by fewer than 15 points and the lone win came against FCS Robert Morris, in a game where a fan called the plays for the first drive.
If I had to play this game, it would be the Ohio side, but struggling with what I think is a bad Eastern Michigan team and only beating Kent State by three points are two concerning results.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 10 games on our Pro Picks Page.
