James Madison vs. Texas State
MACtion returns next week, but we still have weeknight Conference USA action here in Week 10. However, we also have the Sun Belt to kick things off on Tuesday this week as well and James Madison vs. Texas State is a really fascinating game in a variety of ways.
Don’t you worry, C-USA fans. I’ll mention UTEP vs. Kennesaw State down below, but the Sun Belt battle in San Marcos gets the headline billing here. That includes a very noteworthy move on the James Madison vs. Texas State total on Monday.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 27, 1:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 10 College Football Picks and Predictions.
James Madison (-6.5, 55.5) vs. Texas State
Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
G.J. Kinne will turn 37 on December 1, so the former Tulsa QB and longtime UFL, AFL, and CFL QB still has plenty of time to move up the coaching ladder. After one season at Incarnate Word with a spot in the FCS Final Four and a 12-2 record, Kinne took the Texas State job. In his first two seasons at the helm, Texas State went 8-5, which set a program record for wins in a FBS season in 2023 and also featured their first two bowl game appearances, which were both wins.
This season, Texas State will need to scratch and claw to keep their bowl streak intact, as they enter this week’s game at 3-4 and are an underdog at home. The Bobcats are 0-3 in Sun Belt play and have Louisiana, Southern Miss, UL Monroe, and South Alabama left after this. Statistically, this is still a pretty solid team. But, the toss-up games haven’t fallen in their favor, as they’ve lost by a point and twice in overtime in Sun Belt action.
Kinne’s crew is on a few extra days worth of rest after losing 40-37 to Marshall in double overtime on the heels of losing 48-41 to Troy in overtime. The Bobcats have surrendered 5.93 YPP in their three conference games and over six yards per play on the whole against FBS opponents. On offense, this is the 21st-ranked group by yards per play and they’ve gained nearly 7.2 YPP in those three conference games.
So, there is a pretty big degree of bad luck for the Bobcats that should normalize. Will it happen against the Dukes? That’s a fair question, as James Madison has a top-10 defense by YPP with just 4.32 allowed and just 4.81 in Sun Belt games. This is the eighth-ranked defense in the nation by EPA per Rush Attempt per CFB Graphs. On a windy night in San Marcos, that could play a big role.
The Dukes offense was held to just 3.37 YPP by Louisville, but they’ve racked up nearly 6.3 YPP in their other five FBS games. The JMU offense runs through QB Alonza Barnett III with a 9/2 TD/INT ratio and 266 rushing yards with a team-high nine TD. The JMU ground game has averaged 5.3 yards per pop. Texas State has averaged 5.1 yards per carry, but these are two very different run defenses.
While James Madison has that aforementioned top-10 EPA per Rush Attempt mark on defense, Texas State is 125th in the nation in that department. The Dukes are 11th in the nation in points per drive allowed with just 1.06, while Texas State has allowed 2.40 points per drive and ranks 113th.
But, with forecasted wind gusts up in the 35 mph range, throwing the ball may be a challenge for both teams, allowing Texas State to line up more effectively to slow down the running game. The total moved down on Monday afternoon as the weather forecast got clearer, but there’s still some value left on it in my opinion. Shop around for Under 56 at some places. I lean towards James Madison -6.5 with the strength of their run defense, but a lower-scoring expectation could make points more valuable, so I’ll stick with the total here.
Pick: Under 55.5
Other Tuesday Game
UTEP at Kennesaw State (-10, 51): ESPNU has this 8 p.m. ET kickoff for Conference USA and it features the C-USA favorites. The Owls, who fired their head coach midseason and lost a large group of players to the transfer portal, have rebuilt very nicely on the fly and are in the driver’s seat to win the conference. To stay on track, they’ll have to beat a UTEP team that hasn’t really improved in Year 2 under Scotty Walden.
Per CFB Graphs, UTEP is 118th in the nation in points per drive, while Kennesaw State is 62nd. But, the Miners defense has been stout, allowing just 1.38 points per drive. UTEP has played the 139th-ranked strength of schedule per Sagarin and Kennesaw State the 126th. So, they certainly deserve to be favored and my Week 10 college football power ratings say they should be -12, but I’m not putting a bet in on this game.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 10 games on our Pro Picks Page.
