North Carolina vs. Syracuse
Friday Night Lights: College Football Edition features three games, as six teams remember the good, old days of playing high school ball and being the center of attention on a small-town evening. Well, maybe that’s not true for all of Friday’s participants, as they’re probably not all from tiny towns. Anyway, North Carolina vs. Syracuse is the game that I’ll be taking a deep dive on, while Memphis vs. Rice and Sam Houston vs. Louisiana Tech will also get a few words.
This is just the calm before a big college football Saturday, but there are still some good betting angles in these matchups that you’ll want to give some thought.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 29, 8:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 10 College Football Picks and Predictions.
North Carolina at Syracuse (-2.5, 45.5)
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Things have not gone well in “Chapel Bill” this season, as the Tar Heels with the most expensive “front office” in college football have only won two games. But, we should all applaud Jordon Hudson’s decision to go for two last week, as UNC fell mere inches short of being 3-4. Instead, they are 2-5, but it was the right call in the first overtime to try and win.
Things aren’t going well in Syracuse either. The Orange have dropped four in a row and life without QB Steve Angeli has been a struggle. The Notre Dame transfer tore his Achilles in the win over Clemson. That was the last game Syracuse won a game, losing all four since then by double digits. QB Rickie Collins has more interceptions (8) than TD passes (6) after Angeli had a 10/2 TD/INT ratio.
The Orange are averaging a less-than-robust 3.4 yards per carry, so opposing defenses just don’t have much of anything to worry about right now. That could help the Tar Heels defense play up. Of all the things wrong with this team, the defense isn’t really one of them. They’ve allowed just 5.02 yards per play this season and fewer than five yards per play in conference action.
Conversely, the Orange defense has allowed over six yards per play on the whole and nearly 6.3 YPP to ACC opponents. For the season, Syracuse has averaged just about 5.5 yards per play, but they had over 8.6 YPP in their game against FCS Colgate. They’ve managed barely over five yards per play against FBS competition and are about a quarter-yard below that in October, which encompasses all of Collins’ starts except for the one against Duke, where the Blue Devils won 38-3.
North Carolina’s offense is similarly atrocious and not really showing signs of life themselves. QB Gio Lopez also has more picks (5) than tuds (4) and has only thrown for 805 yards. The Tar Heels have thrown for 1,183 yards, more than only nine teams and three of them – Navy, Army, and Rice – run option offenses.
But, I do think this is a great matchup for North Carolina’s defense and a chance to take advantage of a team with a -7 turnover margin and 16 giveaways on the season.
Pick: North Carolina +2.5
Other Friday Games
Memphis (-14, 48) at Rice: The first game of Friday is this 7 p.m. ET kickoff in Houston on ESPN2. Memphis is in a terrible spot here, as they just beat South Florida with a gritty and gutsy effort from QB Brendon Lewis. A massive game against Tulane is on the horizon.
Rice is an easy opponent to overlook, but they did just score a very impressive upset win over UConn to improve to 4-4 in Scott Abell’s first season. It may just be human nature for Memphis to have a lapse here and Rice is a tough opponent with their glacial pass and a run-heavy diet of offensive plays. It’d be Rice or nothing here, but nothing is the call for me.
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech (-17, 48.5): In a world where UMass doesn’t exist as a FBS program, Sam Houston might be the lowest-rated team in the nation. They are 127th in yards per play on offense and 129th in yards per play on defense. Louisiana Tech is similarly terrible on offense, but they have a top-40 defense in yards per play after boasting a top-10 unit last season.
According to Brian Fremeau’s numbers at BCFToys, Louisiana Tech has faced the 97th-ranked slate of opposing defenses. They haven’t done much damage there and I’m not sure that they’ll do enough to get this one Over the total with Sam Houston unlikely to score much. It’s also going to be chilly for these Southern teams dropping into the upper 40s during the game.
Pick: Under 48.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 10 games on our Pro Picks Page.
