Tulane vs. UTSA
Viewers didn’t have a choice on Thursday nights in Weeks 8 or 9, as we only had one college football game. Here in Week 10, we have two, although it probably won’t be much of a choice. Tulane vs. UTSA is a very compelling game in the American Conference, seeing as how the Group of Five CFP bid is likely to come from there. Marshall vs. Coastal Carolina is the other game, made compelling by the fact that Marshall, despite letting their head coach and about half of the program walk away, is better than expected.
Of the two games, it just so happens that my stronger opinion is on Tulane vs. UTSA, so we’ll highlight that one and then look at the clash in Conway.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 28, 7:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 10 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Tulane (-4, 55.5) at UTSA
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Tulane controls their own destiny for a spot in the American Conference Championship Game, which could be a springboard into the College Football Playoff. Tulane also seemed to mostly control their own destiny to have an outside shot at bumping Boise State from the CFP last season, but totally collapsed with a Nov. 28 loss to Memphis and followed that up with a Dec. 6 loss to Army.
The holdovers for Jon Sumrall have to remember how last season ended and they have the chance to rectify things, but the next two games are crucial. UTSA this week and Memphis next week. So far, Tulane’s lone loss came at the hands of Ole Miss back in September and they have two Power Four wins – Northwestern and Duke. So, they can ill afford a slip-up in San Antonio here.
I felt before the season like it could be the Roadrunners in the mix for the CFP berth, but Jeff Traylor’s team has been a disappointment. Opening the season with a loss to Texas A&M is hardly shocking, but losses to Texas State and Temple have really hurt. They also got pummeled last week by North Texas, losing 55-17 just one game after beating Rice 61-13. Jekyll and Hyde, if you will.
But they have the chance to get to .500 in conference and for the season as a whole against the visiting Green Wave. My interest in UTSA had a lot to do with returning QB Owen McCown and the Roadrunners offense has a little under six yards per play. McCown has a 13/4 TD/INT ratio and has only been sacked nine times. UTSA is also rushing for 5.6 yards per carry, though they haven’t found a lot of explosives in the passing game, as they are tied for 117th in the nation in passing plays of 10+ yards and tied for 125th in passing plays of 20+ yards.
Tulane actually only has 17 passing plays of 20+ yards, just four more than UTSA, but the Green Wave have 28 more passing plays of 10+ yards. BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff has a 6/1 TD/INT ratio, but his legs have been his biggest weapon, racking up a team-high 450 yards on 70 carries. His 6.4 yards per carry average trails only Navy QB Blake Horvath and Arkansas QB Taylen Green among regular starting QBs.
The Green Wave have averaged 6.65 yards per play in conference action, while UTSA checks in with 5.85 and the defensive numbers show a similar gap with 5.61 YPP allowed by the Roadrunners and just 4.7 YPP by Tulane. UTSA gave up 584 yards to North Texas, a much better offense than any that Tulane has faced.
Even keeping that in mind, Tulane -4 (shop around for -3.5) is the play here. I have this one lined at 5.5. I really like Traylor, but Sumrall is the better coach and both teams are on a similar amount of extra prep.
Pick: Tulane -4
Other Thursday Game
Marshall (-5.5, 55) at Coastal Carolina: ESPN2 will carry this Sun Belt skirmish, as the Chanticleers may be turning their season around a bit. Back-to-back wins against UL Monroe and App State have the teal turfers on the right side of .500 and this is a big game in the East Division if James Madison were to slip up at some point.
The Thundering Herd offense has been stampeding opposing defenses lately, scoring 38, 42, 51, 48, and 40 points in their last five games. They lost the game where they scored 51. The wild thing to me is that Marshall has put up all these points and ranks 77th in yards per play. In the six games not against Georgia, the Herd have 5.78 YPP, which would rank just 66th in the nation. And the defense is abhorrent, ranking 119th in the nation in yards per play.
Coastal Carolina is 132nd in the nation in offensive yards per play, and their QBs collectively have a 6/8 TD/INT ratio and have taken 17 sacks with a 55.3% completion rate. Samari Collier was the leading passer two games ago with 37 yards. He was the leading passer last week with 118 yards, as Coastal scored 45 points. Your guess is as good as mine with this game. No bet for me.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 10 games on our Pro Picks Page.
