College Football Week 11 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

Please allow me to vent for a second while I lament what has been a couple of the more brutal weekends of football betting I’ve endured in a long time. It hasn’t been nearly as bad in college as in pro, but I did have my first sub-.500 record in college football in over a month this past weekend. Among the losses I endured in Week 10 of college football included two small favorites blowing 3-TD leads, one team losing on the spread as the opponent added a meaningless score on what would have been the game’s final play otherwise, an under bet that lost after four TD’s in the fourth quarter, and blowout loss in which a dormant team unexpectedly woke up in resounding fashion. As we wipe the slate clean and move on to Week 11, my college record now stands at 88-73-4 ATS record, good for 54.7%. This week’s biggest games come out of the SEC, with two playoff-influencing games in particular. There are also a lot of ranked teams playing as heavy favorites. Could we see some surprises? With all that in mind, I have the following Week 11 college football best bets after pouring through the VSiN College Football Analytics Report:

 

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Iowa at UCLA

Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

I don’t know what it is, but oddsmakers continue to defy the Iowa offense for what it is this season, instead insisting that these are the same Hawkeyes that have been bringing out low totals for the past 4/5 years. This attack is actually very good, as they demonstrated in the rain this past Saturday against a pretty good Wisconsin defense by scoring 42 points. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team has gone Over the total in eight of nine games, scoring an effective 42.3 PPG, according to my numbers. They’ve increased that to 45.3 in the last three contests. 

Meanwhile, UCLA’s offensive attack has also put it together lately, led by QB Ethan Garbers, who has looked fantastic the last two games, as his team has put up 62 points. Bettors are also getting behind this Over, with 75% of the bets in on that side of the ledger as of Wednesday. Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 76-49 (60.8%), improving this season a bit after a 24-15 start.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go OVER 45 in the Friday night Iowa-UCLA tilt

New Mexico at San Diego State

Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

Oddsmakers have lined up San Diego State as an uncomfortable 2.5-point home favorite on Friday night with a whopping total of 67. The Aztecs haven’t played at home to a total this high since 1996. So far, more money at DraftKings has come in on New Mexico in this expected shootout—73% of it, in fact. When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 142-132 ATS (51.8%). 

For as much as those setting the numbers feel like this is going to be an explosive contest, SDSU hasn’t topped the 27-point mark since the opener. If this does get to be an offensively dominated game, and the oddsmakers are hinting that it will be, I like the Lobos’ chances, as they are scoring almost 35 PPG and are averaging an effective 38.1 PPG. That makes them a live dog for this one.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go New Mexico +2.5 on Friday night

Virginia at Pittsburgh

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)

I worry about the mindset of teams when they come off disappointing losses in big games, especially when they take on a lesser team the next week and oddsmakers expect them to immediately rebound. In that regard, Pittsburgh played in one of the bigger but underrated games last weekend and was clobbered at SMU, 48-25. That came after a game in which Syracuse handed them a win on a silver turnover platter, which followed another sketchy 17-15 win over Cal. Which has me thinking…is Pitt not as good as its 7-1 record may indicate? 

Bettors at DK aren’t thinking like me, which I like, as over 80% of the handle and bets are in on the Panthers as of Wednesday. Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%). 

Virginia, meanwhile, is rested after its bye week and qualifying for this system: Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 136-104 ATS (56.7%) surge since 2010. The Cavaliers are 0-1-1 ATS this season when the DK public backs them and 4-1 when they don’t. Plus, road teams are on a 7-1 ATS run in the VIR-PIT series.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: I’ll take the +7.5 points with Virginia

Navy at South Florida

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Not surprisingly, there is a lot of sentiment across the betting world that Navy has hit the wall after back-to-back losses in which it tallied just 24 points. Naturally, bettors were probably quite surprised to see the Midshipmen still laying 3 points on the road at a South Florida that sits at 4-4. As of last check, there was nearly 80% of the money at DK on the side of the Bulls. However, as I look at this game more closely, I believe the line is accurate, if not understated for Navy. They are simply the better team now, as my effective strength numbers show them at +15.4 and USF at +7.8, and this doesn’t even take into account any deductions for the continued absence of USF QB Byrum Brown. They are a different team without him, with replacement Bryce Archie being too one-dimensional. This is also a payback spot for Navy after a 14-point home loss in 2023. The Middies have scored 36.7 PPG in their last three versus USF and are 25-14 ATS (64.1%) in revenge mode since 2016

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the 3-points with Navy on the road

BYU at Utah

Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Saturday brings us the renewal of the Holy War for the first time since 2021, as Utah tries to put a dent in the CFP hopes of undefeated BYU. On paper, it looks like a major test for the Cougars, and oddsmakers have done them no favors by installing them as road favorites in Salt Lake. Is the game as tough as it looks? Or is BYU underpriced against a Utah team that is ready to pack it in for the season? Honestly, at this point, I have to side a little more to the latter, and think the rivalry aspect of the contest will give BYU the motivation it needs to take care of business against a Utah team that is down and nearly out, having lost its last four games SU and ATS.

 The line says Cougars -4; my power ratings say it should be -7.2, and my effective strength indicators show it even higher at -9.5. The Cougars are holding teams 16.3 PPG below their effective averages, which means that Utah would only be projected to get 12 points here. The Utes score 1.8 PPG more than their opponents effectively allow, meaning another projection of just 12 points for them. If Utah gets 12 points, or let’s even round up to 14 or even stretch it to 17, BYU’s offense is so hot lately that I don’t see how this one stays close enough for the hosts to threaten the upset. They will have to do that to cover. I don’t see it. BYU is very good, accept it.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go BYU -4 on the road at rival Utah

Colorado at Texas Tech

Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Despite playing above expectations for the entire season to date, it doesn’t feel like fans, bettors, or oddsmakers are taking Colorado all that seriously yet. In my opinion, the Buffaloes are the victims of predetermined hate based upon the loudness of last year, and it hasn’t been forgotten even as they prove themselves to be a solid all-around team in 2024. In this one, head coach Deion Sanders’ team is in what figures to be a difficult matchup, at least on paper, a 3.5-point favorite at a Texas Tech squad that comes off a huge 23-22 upset win at Iowa State. 

However, that win as a 13.5-point dog doesn’t figure to benefit the Red Raiders in this game: Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3-points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 27-46 ATS (37%) since 2010. In terms of my effective numbers, these teams are very even offensively (+14.6 to +14.9). However, the defensive numbers have a big edge for Colorado, -13.3 to -4.9. The effective line for this one is Colorado -5.5. I like the chances of a rested Buffaloes team in Lubbock.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the -3.5 points with Colorado on the road

South Carolina at Vanderbilt

Saturday 4:15 p.m. ET (SECN)

For as much as this Vanderbilt story is a nice feel-good piece for the 2024 season, I think we are getting into unchartered territory here with the Commodores being just 3.5-point dogs at home to a very underrated South Carolina squad. It’s been six years since the Commodores were either an underdog this small or favored in an SEC game at home. In fact, going back to their last five games playing as home underdogs of less than 14 points in conference play, they are 0-5 SU and ATS. It is being misconstrued that this team is red-hot when, in fact, the offense has slowed tremendously, averaging just 22 PPG in the last four after scoring 39 PPG in the first four. 

They will be facing a red-hot Gamecocks defense, allowing an effective 3.1 PPG in its last three. They also scored 51.6 PPG effectively in that stretch, enough to make them the #2 team in the country in my recent ratings. Head coach Shane Beamer’s team comes off a huge rout of Texas A&M, and they have taken care of business lately against Vandy, going 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings, including 47-6 a year ago in Columbia. The Gamecocks are also on a reliable 12-5 ATS surge as favorites. I’m going to trust them again in that role.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go South Carolina -3.5 at Vanderbilt

Army at North Texas

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

The line for Saturday’s Army-North Texas insinuates that QB Bryson Daily should be able to go after missing the Air Force game last week. The Knights obviously need him after struggling on offense in that game. Even still, I think the oddsmakers got this one pegged a little high at -5.5. My power rating number calls for just -2.7, and I love to back high-scoring teams as home dogs. North Texas can put points on the board, having topped the 35-point mark in every game this season, including 47.5 PPG in the last four. And having played one of the country’s weakest schedules, this will undoubtedly be the best team that Army has faced on that side of the ball. That hasn’t stopped bettors from getting behind the road-favored Knights heavily, 82% of the handle and 93% of the bets. 

This game thus fits into the fade trio of public money: 1) Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 82-97 ATS (45.8%). 2) When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 164-188 ATS (46.6%). 3) When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 164-190 ATS (46.3%). I think this is a way bigger test for Army than people are assuming.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go North Texas +5.5 at home

San Jose State at Oregon State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (SW)

To its credit, San Jose State is having a better season than I envisioned at the outset, as the Spartans were one of the teams with a low stability score heading into 2024 as HC Ken Niumatalolo took over. SJSU has taken care of business at home, winning all four games. However, they’ve been a different team on the road, going 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS with only a win over a downtrodden Air Force team to their credit. 

In their last road outing on 10/26, they were clobbered 33-10 by Fresno State. That hasn’t stopped 92% of the handle at DK from flowing in on SJSU for some reason. Recall that going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%). The Spartans are also facing a team that has struggled a bit this year in Corvallis but has for long been one of the more reliable home covers in the country: Oregon State is 26-9 (74.3%) ATS in home games over the last six seasons. The line says -2.5, but my Power Ratings (-5.1), Effective Strength Ratings (-5.6) and Bettors’ Ratings (-6.9) all say the game is underpriced. I’ll trust the tendencies and the numbers here.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the -2.5 at home with Oregon State

Arkansas State at Louisiana-Lafayette

Saturday, 5:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

It could be easy to overlook this game since Louisiana is a pretty healthy favorite and posting much better PPG differentials than Arkansas State (+11.4 to -7.4). But this is officially a battle for the lead in the Sun Belt West Division. Is 16.5 points simply too many? The Red Wolves are one game behind in the conference standings, and seem to have picked it up some since league play began. Their PPG stats are marred a lot by a 52-9 loss to Iowa State earlier in the season. They are also rested off a bye and qualifying for this system: Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 136-104 ATS (56.7%) surge since 2010. If you look at the recent head-to-head history in this rivalry, besides a home edge. You will find that the last two games with double-digit point spreads were decided by 1 and 7 points.

And regarding the lofty total of 60.5, I ask why? These are not highly explosive teams and in a battle for a division lead, I expect it to be played with a higher defensive focus, much like the majority of the handle at DK (75% lean Under): The average college football total has steadied at about 52. In games since the start of the 2022 season, where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 57-44 (56.4%).

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Arkansas State +16.5 AND UNDER 60.5 in this Sun Belt tilt

Minnesota at Rutgers

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (NBC)

There are games that look dangerous on paper but tend not to be so much when you consider what has happened lately with each of the teams. In my belief, confidence and togetherness mean so much late in the season in college football. Minnesota is on fire at it heads east to take on Rutgers. The Golden Gophers have won four straight games, including an impressive 25-17 victory on the road at Illinois last weekend. They also beat USC and a much-improved UCLA team during that stretch. In their three most recent games, HC PJ Fleck’s team is effectively outscoring teams by 30 PPG. Rutgers, meanwhile, has dropped its L4 contests, the most recent two against those same UCLA & USC teams. I can’t imagine the Scarlet Knights have a whole lot of fight left in them, especially after they started 4-0 and appeared to have turned the corner. Plus, staring at a +6 point spread in this game, RUTGERS is on a 1-10 ATS skid as Big Ten home underdog. My effective numbers say this line should be Minnesota -10.7; my power ratings say -8.5. Either way, I think Minnesota should continue to roll here.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Minnesota -6 at Rutgers on Saturday

Maryland at Oregon

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (BTN)

How many points is too many points for a Big Ten Conference game? Well, with a doormat team like 1-7 Purdue, I’m a little less trusting on huge numbers. However, with a more capable team like 4-4 Maryland, who outscores its opponents and averages an effective 39.1 PPG offensively, I think there can be a little more trust. Let’s not forget that the Terps have been in bowl games in three straight seasons and can make it #4 with two more wins in the L4 weeks. I don’t think Locksley will let this team roll over. Plus, coming off the bye week, they should be rested and much more prepared to be more competitive in this game than expected: Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7-points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 136-104 ATS (56.7%) surge since 2010. Plus, to no one’s surprise, 90% of the bets at DK are in on the #1 ranked Ducks as the huge chalk. What could go wrong?

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s take Maryland +25 in Eugene

Michigan at Indiana

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Is it time to get off the train now that Indiana has finally been given some respect by the oddsmakers, facing a line of -14.5 against Michigan? Not to me, as if you would take the football names of Indiana & Michigan out of the equation and simply looked at the numbers, you would find that this game is still underpriced. In fact, my effective strength numbers show that Indiana is a +41.5, good for 5th in the country, while Michigan is +18.2, 59th nationally. What’s important about that is it says that the Hoosiers are effectively outplaying the Wolverines by +23.3 PPG, and that doesn’t even include any home-field advantage. Let’s look at it from a fan perspective. Do we really think head coach Curt Cignetti’s team is going to stumble for the first time at home when facing an extremely downtrodden defending national champion team? If anything, I would expect them to be more focused than ever. Of course, if that weren’t enough motivation, consider that Michigan clubbed IU 52-7 last year in Ann Arbor, and college football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 97-15 SU & 75-32-5 ATS (70.1%) since 2016. Head coach Sherrone Moore’s team has been dreadful on the road in two 2024 games, scoring just 24 points.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the -14.5 with Indiana

Western Kentucky at New Mexico State

Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

I’m just going to keep this writeup focused and call it the revenge game of the week, pitting a good team against a bad team. It qualifies for four revenge systems, of which I’ll share three: 1) Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 51-38 ATS (57.3%) since 2016. 2) College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 97-15 SU and 75-32-5 ATS (70.1%) since 2016. 3) Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 216-169 ATS (56.1%) since 2016. If all that isn’t enough, Western Kentucky is on a 13-1 ATS surge in conference play when coming off a win at home, and my effective numbers say this spread should be -22.5.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: I’m laying the 18-points on the road with WKU

Florida State at Notre Dame

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Buried in Florida State’s ugly 35-11 loss to North Carolina last week was the play of replacement QB Brock Glenn, who stepped in for Luke Kromenhoek after an ugly start and actually ignited the Seminoles’ downfield passing game. He threw a TD and had 11.2 yards per pass attempt. Quite honestly, it was about as good as the passing game looked all year. Does that give FSU a chance to pull a big surprise at Notre Dame on Saturday? Not a chance, but I do think they will be able to score a bit more than the oddsmakers are projecting them for here. In fact, with the -26/42.5 combo, it is essentially indicating that head coach Mike Norvell’s team will only get 8 points. They have been in double-digits every game this year, and Glenn showed the potential to improve that unit. 

I think bettors at DK are seeing it my way, with 94% of the handle and 93% of the bets opting for the Over, since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 76-49 (60.8%), improving this season a bit after a 24-15 start. I could easily see a 38-14 type of win for ND.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go OVER 42.5 in Notre Dame-Florida State

Alabama at LSU

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

The two huge SEC games this week feature home underdogs, and while I considered both as options, I think the better chance at the upset belongs to LSU, who has faced tougher competition than Ole Miss to date to get ready for this big clash with Alabama. I also love that the game is at night in Baton Rouge, as there may not be a single tougher environment in which to play than in that particular situation. 

I’m not surprised to see 2/3 of the handle and bets on Alabama, but those locked in already should know that when the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 219-241 ATS (47.6%). This is a nice revenge spot for LSU and the Tigers get a chance for payback against a Tide team that doesn’t seem to be clicking. As it is, LSU is 16-6 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) in revenge mode since 2016. This is also, of course, a ranked vs. ranked game, and in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 186-91 SU and 160-109-8 ATS (59.5%). Although I would feel better about seeing this line at +3, I think the half-point move to LSU indicates someone somewhere knows head coach Brian Kelly’s team will come to play.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go LSU +2.5 as the home dog

UNLV at Hawaii

Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET (CBSSN)

Hawaii stunned the late-night college football-watching crowd last Saturday night by upsetting Fresno State 21-20 on the road. I think that may have bought us some value on the line here, and by us, I mean UNLV backers. Typically, teams that pull big road upsets don’t react well the next outing: Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 27-46 ATS (37%) since 2010. 

I don’t think this point spread of -13 for the Runnin’ Rebels does justice to just how much higher of a level team they are than Hawaii. My effective strength indicators show that UNLV is the 25th-best team in the country now statistically speaking at +28.1. Hawaii is at +3.8, some 24.3 PPG worse right now. This is another game that I feel could be a hidden blowout, one that looks tougher on the surface than below it.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the 13-points with UNLV

For more Week 11 college football analysis, visit the Week 11 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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