Florida State vs. Pitt
There may only be three games on Friday, but there’s a lot of power, if you know what I mean. And what I mean is that all three games come from the power conferences and are our first of the week, with Florida State vs. Pitt from the ACC, Illinois vs. UCLA from the Big Ten, and Houston vs. Colorado from the Big 12. After six MACtion games, an American game, and a Sun Belt game, some crisper football is a welcomed sight.
The ACC clash is the one that holds my favorite play, but all three games will get a little love here.
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Florida State vs. Pitt (-3.5, 52.5) Prediction
Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Pick: Florida State +3.5
Maybe the Panthers have figured things out, but the loss of Mason Heintschel definitely threw a wrench into the season. Holden Geriner has just a 4/2 TD/INT ratio with a 58.3% completion rate and Corey Dailey has been even worse with a 48.6% completion mark. Dailey started against Boston College and struggled. Geriner has gotten the last two outings.
After racking up 7.22 YPP in the first month of the season, Pitt fell to just 5.36 YPP in October. The Florida State defense has been an unencumbered disaster, but they might get a little bit of a break here in this one. Pitt’s offensive efficiency without Heintschel has taken a giant nosedive and the running game isn’t particularly explosive. Against FBS opponents, the Panthers have rushed for just 4.35 yards per pop.
The loss of Ousmane Kromah definitely put a damper on the season for the Seminoles, but Ashton Daniels continues to be a viable dual-threat guy. The one staple of Pitt’s defense has always been to generate sacks. They have 25 in just nine games this season. But, Daniels at least has some hope of evading the rush, even if he has been sacked 21 times thus far.
What Daniels’ athleticism has done is create some explosives in the passing game. The Seminoles have racked up nearly 15 yards per catch this season. When Pitt doesn’t get to the quarterback, it’s been a struggle. They are 121st in passing yards allowed and 91st in yards per attempt.
With a QB capable of improvisation, that is an upgrade over what Pitt has right now, as Geriner isn’t really capable of much and Dailey is an unproven commodity if he gets called into action. While Pitt’s 34-11 win over Georgia Tech looks impressive, Geriner was just 13-of-30 passing. Pitt’s running game could win the day against Florida State and that could be the difference in the game, but the Seminoles seem live in this one.
Other Friday Games
Illinois at UCLA (-10, 48): The question in every game for UCLA is what they can do on offense. The defense is stellar and we all know it. But, the offense leaves a lot to be desired. In Big Ten play, the Bruins have accumulated 6.6 yards per play and 33.7 points per game, but a lot of those numbers stem from the wins over Purdue and Maryland. UCLA scored 17 in the wins over Wisconsin and Oregon, They had 28 against Michigan State and 34 against Minnesota, so maybe the offense is ticking up a bit, but the Bruins have 27 takeaways and are third in the nation in TO margin. How long can that continue?
The Illini have been a different team with Katin Houser compared to what they’ve been without him. Houser will go here in this one and will be tested by a strong UCLA defense. I lean a bit towards the Bruins, seeing as how they have such a suffocating defense and the offensive numbers are better than the points output, but we’ll see how the game goes.
Houston (-9, 51) at Colorado: The Buffs have not had the stuff in conference play, dropping five of their six games. But, they’ve only been truly blown out a couple of times, by Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Houston’s offense hasn’t been terribly explosive of late and they’ve played three one-score games in a row. The Cougars defense has given up nearly a full yard per play more than Colorado’s in Big 12 play. That makes covering a road number like this a tough ask. Incredibly, Houston is getting outgained by 0.11 yards on a per-play basis in conference action, while Colorado is narrowly outgaining opponents by 0.08 yards per play. I’ll take my chances with Colorado +9.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 11 games on our Pro Picks Page.
