Friday night won’t be full of bangers the later we get into the regular season, but with college football in full swing, it is a much bigger night here in November. We’ve got several great non-conference tilts, including Mississippi State vs. Xavier in a neutral-site game in West Virginia, Virginia vs. Maryland, Georgia vs. North Carolina, and Ohio State vs. UConn, but the game of the night is Arizona vs. Auburn.
The Wildcats will play their first true road game of the season after opening with a neutral-site game against UCLA in Las Vegas. After a couple of easy home wins, Tommy Lloyd’s team will get tested again, but so will Auburn, as the Tigers have wins over Southeastern Louisiana and App State to open the campaign.
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Arizona (-3, 160) at Auburn Prediction
Friday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Wildcats we see in November probably won’t be the Wildcats that we see in March. This is a very young team, headlined by sophomore Ivan Kharchenkov, who was one of two big names to return from last year’s Final Four team. The other is 7-foot-2 bog man Motiejus Krivas, one of just three seniors on the roster. In hopes of making up for some of the lost production, Lloyd hit the portal to pick up Derek Dixon from North Carolina and JJ Mandaquit from Washington, but both guys are in their second seasons of college basketball.
As the season goes along, we’ll likely see more high-leverage minutes for Caleb Holt, Cameron Holmes, and Maksim Brnovic, who were the centerpieces of Arizona’s sixth-ranked freshman class per 247Sports. Holt was graded as the third-best incoming frosh in the nation and top shooting guard. Holt only had seven points against UCLA, but has 38 points in the last two games, including 10 made shots at the rim. He was just 1-of-7 from 3 against Northern Arizona with a 32.8% Usage Rate. He had a 33% Usage Rate against Cal Poly. We’ll see how active he is here.
Unlike a lot of teams in today’s game, Arizona doesn’t shoot 3s. Lloyd’s team was 363rd in the nation in 3P Rate per Bart Torvik last season, as just 26.3% of their shot attempts were triple tries. But, they did make the most of them, shooting 36.6% from beyond the arc. This season, we’ve already seen more of a willingness to fire away with a 3P Rate of 37.1%, but only 27.5% of those shots have fallen. The Wildcats were just 7-of-30 from deep against UCLA in that 84-75 loss.
Last season, the Tigers took 3s at an average clip, with a 40.2% 3P Rate that ranked 167th in the nation. Auburn found success on the offensive end by getting to the free throw line and protecting possessions, both in terms of a low TO% and a high ORB%. However, a series of defensive shortcomings and a 4-13 record in Quadrant 1 games kept the Tigers from dancing in Steven Pearl’s first year.
In hopes of righting the ship, Auburn ponied up to pay Tahaad Pettiford and Kevin Overton from last year’s squad, but went portal shopping to fill several needs. Thomas Dowd was a 55% shooter on 2s and a 32.3% guy from 3 at Troy as a stretch 4. Bukky Oboye, a 7-foot-1 monster from Santa Clara, shot 77.1% on 2s and averaged better than a block per game. Adam Olsen was a 40% triggerman from deep at South Alabama. Four-time transfer Kobly King was a 38.2% guy from Utah State from deep. Creighton big man Owen Freeman was much more effective in his two seasons at Iowa, but he’s another big presence and a top-notch rebounder.
While the offense still runs through Pettiford and Ovetrton, who averaged 15.4 and 14.1 PPG, respectively last season, the Tigers prioritized shooting efficiency at the tin and on the perimeter with the newcomers to help the cause. Pettiford was only a 29% 3-point shooter. Overton was a 41.3% guy, but the only returnee to shoot well from deep.
Arizona vs. Auburn Prediction
We’ve only seen two games for Auburn and both have been against inferior opponents, but they have held SELA and App State to a 37% eFG% and just 24.6% from 3. Few teams can match up with Arizona’s size, but Auburn is one of them. Torvik has Arizona 351st in the nation in Average Years of Roster Experience. Auburn is 41st. For the first big road tilt for Arizona, you wonder how the freshmen and sophomores fare. Auburn can actually keep Kharchenkov to the outside, where he was just a 31.7% shooter on 3s. He did shoot 46% in the mid-range, but he wants to attack the basket.
Arizona is clearly among the most talented teams in the country and that could very well be enough to secure this road win, but Auburn has a ton of experience and better complementary players this season compared to last season.
Pick: Auburn +3
