Kent State vs. Ball State
Night 2 of MACtion 2025 brings us two very different games. Kent State vs. Ball State has very competitive spread, while Northern Illinois vs. Toledo does not. It is rare to see a favorite of more than two touchdowns in a game with a total in the low 40s, and even rarer to not see much interest in the underdog.
I have a stronger opinion on Kent State vs. Ball State, so I’ll start there, but talk about Northern Illinois vs. Toledo, as the 2011 version of this game is what put MACtion on the map in a 63-60 NIU win. This one will not feature 123 points.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 3, 4:45 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 11 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Kent State vs. Ball State (-1.5, 46.5)
Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
The Golden Flashes beat Merrimack 21-17 to open the season before losing the next four games by 38, 3, 56, and 44 points. For good measure, their other loss this season was by 35 points. It is hard to believe that a team with four losses of 35+ points actually has a shot at bowl eligibility, but that is the case for Kent State.
At 3-5, they need to win three of their remaining four games against Ball State, rival Akron, Central Michigan and Northern Illinois. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they can do it. When they beat UMass 42-6, it was their first win over a FBS team since 2022. With their most recent win against Bowling Green, interim head coach Mark Carney had the “interim” part stripped in front of a jubilant group of players.
Ball State has alternated wins and losses over the last six games, with a thoroughly impressive win against Ohio as the standout performance. They’ve also lost to Western Michigan by 42 in that span. So, we’ll see what we get from the Cardinals here, as money has been slowly leaking in on the Kent State side of this line.
Neither team has an impressive set of stats. They’re nearly identical on offense with 4.64 yards per play, though Ball State has 440 more yards on the ground than Kent State does. Defensively, Ball State has the better yards per play numbers, but the Golden Flashes have been better on defense in MAC play. In fact, they allowed just 5.19 YPP in four October games. Ball State allowed 5.7 in theirs.
Similarly, Kent State has been more than a yard per play better on offense against MAC foes than Ball State. They’ve found something in Dru DeShields, who has an 11/2 TD/INT ratio and has thrown for more than 1,100 yards. The running game still has all kinds of issues, but DeShields has taken good care of the ball and Kent State has created some explosive pass plays out of the backfield.
Ball State QB Kiael Kelly is a better runner than passer, as he’s been sacked 28 times and has just a 6/5 TD/INT ratio. He’s also managed just 3.0 yards per carry. Star RB Qua Ashley has 5.1 yards per pop and he’ll have to be the guy to shine for the Cardinals to hold serve at home here.
Kent State only has eight red zone trips in eight games, which is a mind-blowing stat. Ball State only has 15, so it’s not like they’ve excelled at moving the ball either. The next lowest teams (Northern Illinois and Wisconsin) have 14 each. Ball State also only has three made field goals in seven attempts this season, while Kent State has three on four attempts.
Two bad offenses, two bad defenses, but Kent State is playing better in MAC games and I think the Carney announcement gives this team some more stability and certainty moving forward.
Pick: Kent State +1.5
Other Wednesday Game
Northern Illinois vs. Toledo (-15, 41.5): ESPN2 has this one from the Glass Bowl. I was excited that NIU went outside the box and got Charleston (WV) head coach Quinn Sanders to run the offense, but the returns have been subpar at best with just 4.5 yards per play. All things considered, the Huskies defense has been fantastic, ranking inside the top 35 in yards per play allowed. Unfortunately, Toledo’s defense is third in the nation in that department.
It wouldn’t be a big favorite role for Toledo without mentioning that Jason Candle has lost outright 12 times as a favorite of 7+ points and 18 times outright as a favorite since 2021. I guess the Under makes the most sense here. We’re also likely to have windy conditions with gusts up near 30 mph.
Pick: Under 41.5
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