Miami vs. Ohio
The Return of the Mack by Mark Morrison is one of those earworms that you can’t get out of your head once you hear it. The Return of the MACtion is not a song, at least not to my knowledge, but that’s what we have on Tuesday night to kick off Week 11. We’ve had some line movements in both games, as Miami vs. Ohio is the better of the two games by far on Tuesday night, but we also have UMass vs. Akron.
The RedHawks and Bobcats are vying for the top spot in the conference, as a win for Ohio would give them an identical 4-1 conference record and give Miami their first loss of conference play. After an 0-3 start, Miami has rattled off five wins in a row, but they are a small underdog in Athens. Let’s hit Miami vs. Ohio first and then check out UMass vs. Akron.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 3, 1:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 11 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Miami vs. Ohio (-3, 49)
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Ohio University is known for a pretty elite Halloween party, but even with that in the rearview, the school and its students at least have MACtion to look forward to. Money did hit the board on the RedHawks on Monday afternoon, though, pushing this line from as high as -3.5 in some shops to -2.5, while others hung on 3 with reduced juice on the favorite.
Ohio lost the regular season meeting 30-20 between the two schools last season, but got revenge when it mattered most, a 38-3 drubbing in Detroit to win the MAC for the first time since 1968. So, you could conceivably call this a revenge game for Miami, and a win would put them in an excellent position to get back to that title game and make amends.
The Bobcats’ inexplicable loss to Ball State could end up being pretty impactful in this race, as their other two losses are to Rutgers and Ohio State. Miami lost to Wisconsin, Rutgers, and UNLV before beating Lindenwood, Northern Illinois, Akron, Eastern and Western Michigan. Both of these teams are leveling up here in this one, as they are probably 1a and 1b in this conference, depending on how you feel about Toledo.
Both QBs are counted on to do a lot for their respective teams. Dequan Finn has 384 yards on the ground and shares the team lead in rushing TDs with four. He’s also got seven passing touchdowns, but has thrown five interceptions and has only completed 57.1% of his throws. Meanwhile, Parker Navarro has completed nearly 68% of his throws, but he has an 11/7 TD/INT ratio. He’s rushed for 504 yards and is a good 1-2 punch with returnee Sieh Bangura, who transferred back to Ohio after a season at Minnesota. He’s racked up 5.2 yards per pop.
Navarro strikes me as the more dynamic player, so it comes down to the defenses. On a per-play standpoint, Miami is 26th in the nation, while Ohio is 123rd, so that’s quite a substantial difference. Ohio did allow nearly eight yards per play to FCS Gardner-Webb and nearly seven yards per play to the three Power Four opponents that they played. In conference play, they’ve allowed 5.46 YPP, while the RedHawks have allowed 4.89.
Even though Ohio has given up more yards, they are a borderline top-10 red zone defense, allowing just 12 touchdowns in 26 attempts. Miami, meanwhile, has allowed 17 TD in 23 red zone trips. The Bobcats are also far better at converting red zone trips into points with a 71% success rate compared to a 57% one for Miami.
I’ll lay the short number on the Bobcats here. I’d look for -2.5 with extra juice as opposed to -3 with reduced juice, as that’s a pretty important half-point.
Pick: Ohio -3
Other Tuesday Game
UMass vs. Akron (-10, 49): Rare air for the Zips here, as they lay double digits at home against an atrocious UMass team. It isn’t all the players’ fault in Amherst, as injuries forced head coach Joe Harasymiak to play defense on the scout team in recent weeks. Akron is ineligible for a bowl game due to low APR scores, so next week is their bowl game against rival Kent State, so this is something of a lookahead spot, if a program as poor as Akron can have one.
UMass is actually better from a yards per play standpoint on defense than Akron (6.14 to 6.16), but the Zips have double the takeaways (14) and the better offense. For the season, the Minutemen have gained just 3.95 yards per play, a full half-yard worse than any other team in the country. From an EPA/play standpoint, UMass is 135th out of 135 on offense and 133rd on defense, while Akron is 126th and 115th. Underdog money hit the board on Monday. My money won’t hit the board anywhere.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 11 games on our Pro Picks Page.
