Ohio vs. Miami
We should all take a moment and reflect on how special it is that Week 11 gets underway with six games from the Mid-American Conference. Three of them are on Tuesday and three of them are on Wednesday, as Eastern Michigan is the odd team out in the 13-team conference. Kent State vs. Bowling Green, Western Michigan vs. Akron, and Ohio vs. Miami (OH) make up Tuesday’s triumvirate and we’ve already seen some noteworthy movement on what is the game of the night.
The Bobcats and RedHawks often factor into the title picture in this conference, even though Ohio just won their first outright MAC Championship since 1968 two seasons ago. With an undefeated record in league play on the line here, it’s a huge game for the Bobcats.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 9, 8:30 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 11 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Ohio (-2, 49) at Miami (OH)
Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Bobcats have doubled up opponents on the season in conference play, outscoring them 144-71. This is the best defense in the conference and arguably the best offense, though Toledo has scored two more points. After a slow start to the season, Ohio has reeled off six wins in a row, including all five conference games.
But, the RedHawks do represent a much stiffer test than Kent State, Central Michigan, Sacramento State, Eastern Michigan, and Akron. As things currently stand, none of those teams have a winning record and none have a winning record in conference play. Miami sits at 3-2 in MACtion with losses to Buffalo and Bowling Green and wins over UMass, Akron, and Central Michigan, with two of those wins by just one point.
Even though the Bobcats have played about as light of a conference schedule as possible, you can see why this line has moved in their direction. There are 138 FBS teams and Jeff Sagarin ranks Ohio’s schedule 142nd, as his rankings include the FCS level. Miami’s isn’t much better at 132nd, but the statistical profiles for the two teams are very different.
While the two teams are separated by just seven spots nationally in yards per play on offense, with Ohio ahead by .07 yards, the Bobcats have gained over a yard per play more against MAC opponents than the RedHawks. Defensively, Ohio has much better year-to-date numbers, including about a half-yard fewer per play allowed in conference clashes.
The other area with a clear advantage for Ohio is with situational football. The Bobcats entered the week 21st in third-down conversion rate at 47.32%. Meanwhile, Miami was 104th at 35.85%. In conference play, Miami is just over 31%. The RedHawks have improved dramatically in third-down defense since conference play began, but Ohio has only allowed a 30.43% conversion rate, while Miami has allowed a 38.89% mark.
Ohio also has a top-10 red-zone TD%, cashing in on 20 of their 26 attempts. Miami began the week 88th with 17 TD in 29 attempts.
In these closely-lined conference games, it often comes down to execution on the high-leverage downs and in the high-leverage spots on the field. Ohio certainly looks more trustworthy in that department.
Pick: Ohio -2
Other Tuesday Games
Kent State at Bowling Green (-6, 45): How bad is Kent State? Bowling Green lost to Tarleton State earlier this season and they’ve only won two games, with only one that would have covered this six-point spread and that was against Sacramento State. Speaking of Sac State, that’s who Kent State just lost to and why this line is as big as it is. I think it’s a little bit too high and do like the Golden Flashes, who were in a terrible spot last week, as they had to travel cross-country on a short week after beating Akron in their annual rivalry game.
Pick: Kent State +6
Western Michigan (-14.5, 48) at Akron: An ugly game here, but Western Michigan should be in very good shape. They might be scoreboard watching a bit, as the Broncos sit 4-1 in league play and a Miami win would be good for them. The Zips are beyond awful and have no goals left for the season. The loss to Kent State was the bowl game with just one win on the season. This one could get out of hand early, though WMU only has two wins that would cover this margin and one was against FCS Monmouth.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 11 games on our Pro Picks Page.
