UTSA vs. South Florida
After two days worth of MACtion, it is refreshing to see better conferences on the card for Thursday. UTSA vs. South Florida from the American and Georgia Southern vs. App State from the Sun Belt are the two games in question, though the level of play will surely be higher in one of those two games.
It is the UTSA vs. South Florida game that gets headline billing here, while Georgia Southern vs. App State also gets a mention for the November 6 college football slate here in Week 11 as the calm before the storm of a good Friday night of action and another busy Saturday.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 4, 12:05 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 11 College Football Picks and Predictions.
UTSA vs. South Florida (-13.5, 68.5)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This one gets the main ESPN network, as there are some College Football Playoff implications here. South Florida’s early-season wins over Boise State and Florida stand out as some of the best in the Group of Five ranks, plus the Bulls hung 63 on a very good North Texas team, which is still the Mean Green’s only loss heading into this week.
But, South Florida did suffer a 34-31 setback against Memphis last week, so they need a big bounce back effort here. It might be easier said than done against a UTSA team that has been impossible to figure out lately. The Roadrunners’ early-season loss to Texas State looks worse with each passing week. They also lost at Temple and got beaten by 38 in Denton against North Texas. But, they also just crushed a good Tulane team by 22.
UTSA racked up 523 yards of offense in that win over Tulane and led 31-12 at halftime. Owen McCown finally had his breakout game, as he was 31-of-33 for 370 yards and four touchdowns. He has a 17/4 TD/INT ratio on the season and has only taken nine sacks, plus star RB Robert Henry Jr. has popped off eight yards per carry. So, why aren’t the Roadrunners better?
As good as they are with the ball, they are nearly as bad without it. This is a team that has averaged 6.12 yards per play, but has also allowed just shy of six yards per play. Also, as good as the offense has been, the Roadrunners are tied for 86th in third down conversion rate. They’re also sporting a bottom-30 red zone defense.
From a metrics standpoint, South Florida shines. They are a top-20 offense with 6.71 YPP and a top-40 defense with 5.14 YPP against. They are outgaining American Conference opponents by 1.9 YPP. By EPA/play, they are 33rd on offense and 31st on defense, compared to a team like UTSA, who ranks in the 60s in both categories per CFB Graphs.
The defense has been fantastic, but the most important thing for USF this season is that Byrum Brown has stayed healthy. He’s racked up more than 2,500 total yards and 25 total TD with 17 through the air and eight more on the ground. His 120 carries and 596 yards lead the Bulls in both categories. He’ll also cross 2,000 passing yards in the first quarter of this one and has a 63% completion rate.
The Bulls have played the highest-ranked strength of schedule in the conference with their non-conference slate carrying a lot of that weight. UTSA has played the 86th-ranked SOS and that includes a loss to unbeaten Texas A&M.
The spread of 14 feels high here with a UTSA bunch that can score, but can they get any stops? Also, aside from the loss to Memphis, USF’s three conference wins were by 28, 27, and 35. With the need to bounce back off of that loss, and with style points probably part of the G5 CFP equation, they should be locked in.
Circa was 13.5 at time of writing, but the rest of the odds screen was on 14, so I’ll call this 14 to be fair.
Pick: South Florida -14
Other Thursday Game
Georgia Southern vs. App State (-6, 62.5): ESPN2 gets this 7:30 kickoff and this is a rough handicap. App State is not very good, but neither is Georgia Southern. Both teams are 1-3 in league play and Georgia Southern’s 17-point win over rival Georgia State was pretty misleading, as the Panthers had 24 more yards on offense, but gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter to lose.
App State’s lone conference pelt is also the Panthers in a 21-point win. The Mountaineers have had a timeshare at QB with AJ Swann and JJ Kohl, with Kohl having the better TD/INT ratio at 8/2 and Swann with the better completion rate and more yards per attempt, as well as fewer sacks. The running game hasn’t been very effective with a long of 39 and just 4.1 yards per carry. That’s still better than Georgia State with a long of 41 and 3.9 yards per carry.
These two teams are poor and we’re mostly just betting on which one will be slightly worse. Georgia Southern does have the worse defense with 6.54 YPP against and they rank 129th in EPA/play. Maybe that makes the difference, but no bet from me.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 11 games on our Pro Picks Page.
