Week 13 college football best bets
This is our last full slate of college football this season, which is hard to believe. It seems like there’s still so many unknowns about how this season is going to play out, but we’re quickly going to find out the answers to those questions. One programming note, in addition to my usual NFL best bets article on VSiN.com this week, I will be back Friday with a full betting preview of The Game (Ohio State vs. Michigan), including player props, game props, totals, the whole nine yards to have you prepared from an investment standpoint to watch and profit on the biggest game of the season. For the last full slate of the season, let’s see what my T Shoe Index has identified for us to lock in this week.
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Bowling Green (-2) vs Western Michigan, O/U 51.5 (TUESDAY)
I had a friend message me last week on a Bowling Green gameday if I had any bets for that night’s slate. My response was, “Does Bowling Green play today?” They have become our comfort team, the blanket to our Linus, if you will. Not to mention, they’ve been an absolute cash cow for us, failing to cover just one time this season when we bet on them. This week (Tuesday night) they play a Western Michigan team that has been eliminated from bowl eligibility, sitting with just 4 wins heading into this one and not much to play for after getting blanked 24-0 by Northern Illinois last week. I’ve mentioned the “art” part of handicapping, especially at this point in the season, and motivationally I don’t see any reason the Broncos show up in this spot (they didn’t even show up last week), and the numbers have loved BG all year, projecting a 7.5-point Falcons’ win here. One last regular season dance with our favorite dance partner.
Pick: Bowling Green -2 (Play to -3)
Boise State (-6.5) vs Air Force, O/U 46.5 (FRIDAY)
We cashed an over with Air Force last week (1 minute into the second half), thanks to their suddenly-shaky defense, and I have an angle on the total in their game this week as well. Boise State has scored 45, 42, 30, 32, and 30 in its last 5 games, respectively, yet their team total for this game is set at just 27.5. I think they might do whatever they want offensively in this game, and I normally would just play the game over but I’m losing faith in Air Force’s banged up offense, so I’m going to play the unit I trust here in Boise’s surging offense.
Pick: Boise State Team Total Over 27.5 (Play to 28)
UMass vs UConn (-2.5), O/U 51.5 (SATURDAY)
When I saw this line, I would’ve sworn Taisun Phommachanh was out for UMass. Every single formula I run, including my TSI, projects U Mass as outright winners in this game, including my official projection of UMass -7.5. Neither team is in contention to achieve bowl eligibility with a win here, so this one is all about pride and execution. Both of these coaches should have their teams ready to play, but in an even motivation game, I want the team catching points that my numbers indicate is vastly better. Offensively, UMass is ranked #27 in the Group of Five, facing the #50 ranked defense. On the other side, UConn’s offense is only #57 in the G5, facing the #63 ranked defense of the Minutemen. By far the biggest advantage in the game is when UMass has the ball, so a team total over wouldn’t be a bad idea either, but I’m going to take the points with the dog here.
Pick: UMass +2.5 (Play to pick)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
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