College Football Week 14 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

A couple of late losses cost me a winning record last weekend although the game I will lament the most was Wake Forest’s loss at Miami as the Demon Deacons played extremely competitively for three quarters yet somehow lost by 28 on a +25-point line. It’s been that kind of stretch for me lately, as it seems that most of the games that come down to the wire end up going against me, both in college and pro. My excruciating month of November continued last weekend with another subpar performance. In any case, the 9-10 ATS record for last week finds me at 111-102-5 ATS (52.1%) for the season as we wrap up the regular season this weekend. Having uncovered some additional systems dealing with season finales has me excited about the possibilities for this weekend. Let’s get right at it, of course, relying heavily on the latest VSiN College Football Analytics Report:

 

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Toledo at Akron

Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN 2)

I’m going to get an early start and invest in my first MACtion game of the season with road-favored Toledo looking to wrap up its regular season in strong fashion before heading to a bowl game with what would be a decent 8-4 record. Its opponent, Akron, is coming off a win, just its third of the year. The difference in the wins of these teams leads us to a nice season-finale angle: In season-finale games since 2015 featuring teams with a difference of four wins or more, when the better team has been the road team in the matchup, their record has been 81-11 SU and 55-36-1 ATS (60.4%). There’s also a similar system in place because of where the line sits: Since 2015, home underdogs of seven points or more are just 21-126 SU and 58-87-2 ATS (40%) in season-finale games. I’m going to avoid trying to get cute this week with bad teams. It starts with going against Akron on Tuesday.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Let’s go Toledo -9 at Akron

Oregon State at Boise State

Friday, noon ET (FOX)

In looking through the database of recent season-finale games this week, it stood out that it is dangerous to back home teams laying big points only because they are in a “must-win” situation. A lot of times, the price is jacked up beyond a value position. I think bettors could be seeing through that in this game between Oregon State and Boise State. The Broncos cannot afford another loss as they hope to represent the Group of 5 in the College Football Playoff. As of last check, 55% of bets at DraftKings were on the Beavers ATS. When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). OSU has its own reasons to win, which plays into what has been a strong system. One of the most intriguing regular-season finale angles involves teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in a season finale, they have gone 26-49 SU but 43-30-2 ATS (61.9%). With this line sitting where it is, there are also two fade systems going against BSU: 1. Since 2015, home favorites of more than 20 points are 55-6 SU but just 23-38 ATS (37.7%) in season finales. 2. In games Week 12 or later, ranked home teams as favorites of 12 points or more have gone 105-12 SU but just 47-64-2 ATS (42.3%). The Beavers got a nice upset win versus Washington State last week to stay alive for a bowl bid and are 25-14 (65.8%) ATS coming off a SU win since 2016. I think they are more competitive here than the oddsmakers are giving credit.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Let’s go Oregon State +20.5 at Boise State

Texas State at South Alabama

Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

Unfortunately, I backed Texas State last week against a downtrodden Georgia State team in a game that had blowout written all over it. Well, the Panthers didn’t get that message as they battled their way to a huge upset win. The loss for TSU puts the Bobcats in a precarious position for this one as upset losses as huge favorites snowball. Teams that lose as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 40-67 SU and 36-67-4 ATS (35%) in the follow-up game since 2012. They are also a road favorite backed by almost 70% of the money at DK as of Tuesday, and that is rarely good. South Alabama has been much better than I expected this season, as new head coach Major Applewhite has steadied what was a very unstable situation at the beginning of the season. A win here will match the 2023 total for the Jaguars, an obvious positive benchmark for a transitional season. Finally, if you read my true home- and road-field articles last week, you would have seen that Texas State was in the bottom 30 in the country in road performance while South Alabama was in the top 10 for home field. Despite that, USA is a home dog here. That could be all wrong.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I got South Alabama +1 versus Texas State

Georgia Tech at Georgia

Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+)

Georgia should have overwhelmed UMass last week but played a sloppy game, eventually winning by 38 but allowing 21 points to the Minutemen. It was the fifth time in the last eight games that the Bulldogs yielded at least 20 points. Something is just not clicking right now in Athens. I’m not surprised to see more bets on the visiting Yellow Jackets at DK as of Tuesday. Remember, when the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). Perhaps they have caught wind of the huge trend in this rivalry that shows road teams are 18-4-1 ATS in the Georgia Tech-Georgia series since 2000. Of course, with Georgia playing as an almost a three-touchdown favorite against a Georgia Tech team that already has two double-digit outright upset wins, you’ll want to consider this late-season betting system: In Week 12 games or later, ranked home teams as favorites of 12 points or more have gone 105-12 SU but just 47-64-2 ATS (42.3%). I don’t really see an upset coming, but I like the Yellow Jackets to keep it close, especially with my recent ratings showing Georgia expected to win by only 7.5.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Let’s take Georgia Tech +19.5 at Georgia

Navy at East Carolina

Friday, noon ET (ESPN)

There is some strange betting action this week on the Navy-East Carolina game at DraftKings, with 76% of the handle on host ECU but 67% of the bets. I’ve shared on many occasions that favorites getting that much action aren’t very successful. Alternatively, when the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). Let’s not forget, this began as a very special season for the Midshipmen, as they won their first six games and won a seventh later. Two of the losses since that hot start were at the hands of Notre Dame and Tulane. As a program, they’ve won seven games just once since 2018, so there should be plenty of motivation to finish this season strong. Typically, this has been a great matchup for Navy, which has won its last eight games ATS versus East Carolina. The Middies were also No. 3 on my road-field performance chart last week with a TRF of +3.3, meaning it has been advantageous for them to play on the road over the last four seasons, as evidenced by their 13-5 ATS mark.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll take the 1.5 points with Navy

Texas-San Antonio at Army

Saturday, noon ET (CBSSN)

Apparently everyone has jumped off the Army bandwagon after its showing versus Notre Dame in the Bronx on Saturday. Most people figured the Irish were better, but after the Irish dominance, the Black Knights are being looked at as a total pretender with 80% of the money going against them in this game versus UTSA. Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%), For the record, though, UTSA and Notre Dame are on completely different levels, particularly on defense where the Irish allow 20 points per game fewer. In fact, if anything, this is a noteworthy defensive edge for Army in the matchup, both in terms of yards (+90 YPG) and points (+ 17 PPG). Head coach Jeff Monken’s team still has a lot to play for, in particular, warming up for the AAC title game next week versus Tulane. Historically, when ranked hosts are lesser priced at this time of year, they fare well. In Week 12 games or later, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 105-12 SU but just 47-64-2 ATS (42.3%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 35-8 SU and 27-16 ATS (62.8%) since 2017. Plus, Army is where UTSA was expected to be, so that reality has to be discouraging for the Roadrunners.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll back Army -7 to rebound versus UTSA

South Carolina at Clemson

Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)

Unfortunately for Clemson, the Tigers’ one ACC loss has them in need of help to reach the conference title game as Miami would need to lose at Syracuse. While it’s unlikely that coach Dabo Swinney’s team will be playing next week, it doesn’t take anything away from what was a solid season, particularly with the way they rebounded after the ugly second half in the opener versus Georgia. Here the Tigers get a shot at another SEC foe as rival South Carolina comes to town. The biggest thing for me in this game, and it might be the last time we get to use these systems in 2024, is the trio of ranked-versus-ranked angles that will be applicable here: 1. In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 191-92 SU and 164-111-8 ATS (59.6%). 2. Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 110-21 SU and 80-47-4 ATS (63%). 3. Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 55-18 SU and 48-22-3 ATS (68.6%) since 2017. It was another solid season using these this year and I’ll be looking at both Clemson and Texas A&M to finish strong.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Let’s go Clemson -2.5 as the short home favorite

Tennessee at Vanderbilt

Saturday, noon ET (ABC/ESPN+)

When I read this paragraph on College Football Network, I got queasy, wondering if this was the kiss of death: “The Tennessee Volunteers were delivered some bad news on Saturday night following the results from around the SEC. Thanks to uncontrollable outside factors, the Vols don’t control their own destiny, but they should be considered a near-lock for the College Football Playoffs at this rate, right?” Near-lock means they have to beat their overachieving hungry rival on their home field this week. Vanderbilt has taken several steps forward this season and would love nothing more than to ruin the Vols’ chances at the playoff. To be perfectly honest, I don’t see it happening, and I believe the Commodores will encounter a very focused Tennessee team on Saturday. Vandy has lost back-to-back games, and the last time it played at home was dominated by South Carolina. That result came right before I conducted my annual true home-field advantage study that found Vandy with a 9-16 SU and 8-17 ATS record since 2021 at home and a +0 true home-field rating, meaning it is essentially a neutral game when the Commodores play in Nashville. My current effective strength numbers also show that Tennessee should be a 13.3-point favorite here, and that is even applying two points of home-field advantage, which is questionable. If you consider as well that since 2015, home underdogs of seven points or more are just 21-126 SU and 58-87-2 ATS (40%) in season finales, it’s reasonable to see coach Josh Heupel’s team taking care of business.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 11 points with Tennessee

Connecticut at Massachusetts

Saturday, noon ET (ESPN+)

Not enough people are talking about the incredible turnaround head coach Jim Mora Jr. has led at UConn this season, going from 3-9 last season to a chance at 8-4 with a win over UMass on Saturday. How likely is that victory? Very, as the Huskies are 10-point road favorites, deservedly, too, as UMass comes in on a 1-6 skid, having allowed 34 points or more in five of their last six outings. During that stretch, the Minutemen have allowed an average of 43.6 PPG to the five FBS foes they have faced. As a result, if you look at my effective strength calculations, you will see that UMass allows opponents to score about six points more than their usual averages, meaning UConn is due for about 37 points here. Not a bad total for a double-digit favorite. Also, in terms of this line being where it is, since 2015, home underdogs of seven points or more are just 21-126 SU and 58-87-2 ATS (40%) in season finales. On top of that, in season finales since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more between the teams, when the better team has been the road team in the matchup, the record has been 81-11 SU and  55-36-1 ATS (60.4%). It all adds up to a comfortable UConn win.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Let’s go UConn -10 to end its strong season in big fashion

Miami at Syracuse

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Only one team in the country is scoring more than 40 PPG this season, a very low number based on recent standards. That team is, of course, Miami, which has a berth in the ACC title game on the line as it travels to Syracuse on Saturday. Do I expect the Hurricanes, who have played somewhat sloppy football of late, to get tripped up? In a word, no, as several nice betting systems are backing them. 1. In season finales since 2015, teams scoring more than 43 PPG are 36-8 SU and 27-16-1 ATS (62.8%) versus teams scoring less. 2. In Week 12 games or later, ranked road teams are 127-34 SU and 87-71-3 ATS (55.1%) versus non-ranked home teams since 2017. Digging deeper, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than six points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 109-15 SU and 69-52-3 ATS (57%) in that same Week 12 and later time span. And finally, 3. Since 2015, home underdogs of seven points or more are just 21-126 SU and 58-87-2 ATS (40%) in season finales. I expect Syracuse to be competitive, but in the end, Miami, which has been a better road team than a host actually, separates to win and cover.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Let’s go Miami -10.5

UAB at Charlotte

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

Looking back at last week’s article on true home-field advantage, I promised myself I would fade the country’s worst-performing team when I finally got the chance. Well, that chance is now as Charlotte hosts UAB. The 49ers are just 8-15 SU and 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 home games and performing at a level 6.8 points below the average college football team since 2021. With an average value of 2.5, it means that it has actually been 4.3 points of disadvantage for Charlotte to host games the last four seasons. It’s no wonder bettors have gotten behind head coach Trent Dilfer’s underdog Blazers here with 71% of the bets going their way at DK. When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). UAB comes off its best outing of the season, a 40-14 rout of Rice as a seven-point dog, and surely Dilfer would love to bring some positive momentum into the offseason. Charlotte would, too, of course, but with their coaching situation in limbo, it would seem that the 49ers are the team less invested here. Laying points with a team like that is impossible.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll take UAB +2.5 as the road dog

Duke at Wake Forest

Saturday, noon ET (ACC Network)

Which team would you rather be backing here, simply looking at two blind resumes? A team with a first-year head coach that has exceeded expectations dramatically with an 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS record and coming off an upset win, or a team that is looking at a second straight four-win season after a fourth-quarter meltdown last week? It seems pretty easy to me. Need I remind you that Duke was projected to be among the worst, if not the worst, teams in the ACC this season? This team has to be fully galvanized at this point as it plays for a prime bowl position. Concerning the disparity in the way these teams’ seasons have gone, in season finales since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more between the teams, when the better team has been the road team in the matchup, the record has been 81-11 SU and 55-36-1 ATS (60.4%).

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll lay the four points with Duke

Michigan at Ohio State

Saturday, noon ET (FOX)

I could see where fans and bettors alike might be under the belief that Michigan won’t be able to do much offensively against a very stout Ohio State defense, but the history of this huge rivalry says different, as Over the total converted in 10 straight Michigan-Ohio State games. In fact, during that stretch, there have been totals in the 40s, 50s and 60s, and regardless, only once during the stretch has a team failed to reach the 20-point mark. That is amazing, especially because there have been three double-digit favorites in that time. We also have a situation where Michigan comes off its best offensive outing of the season, a rout of Northwestern in which the Wolverines put up 50 points and 396 yards. Of course, getting back to what the overall perception is, DK bettors actually agree with me, with 94% of the handle and 92% of the bets on the Over, and since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 76-49 (60.8%).

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll get behind yet another Michigan-Ohio State Over (43)

Illinois at Northwestern

Saturday, noon ET (BTN)

I guess I caught a break last week with Illinois pulling off a 40-yard fourth-down touchdown pass in the closing seconds, but it needed only a field goal to get the cover. I’ve had way worse luck against me this last month to revel in that play alone. That said, I love the momentum the Illini have right now as they prepare for their season finale at Northwestern. A win here gives head coach Bret Beilema’s team a 9-3 record, and considering they were picked to finish in the bottom third of the Big Ten, you have to think they are all in for each other at this point. At the same time, the Wildcats were expected to be down and are, and come off an embarrassing 50-6 loss to Michigan that dropped their record to 4-7, eliminating any chance of a bowl game. Sounds like a team that might not be in the right mindset to pull off an upset. As it is, since 2015, home underdogs seven points or more are just 21-126 SU and 58-87-2 ATS (40%) in season finales. The further advantage goes to Illinois in that in season finales since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more between the teams, when the better team has been the road team, their record has been 81-11 SU and 55-36-1 ATS (60.4%). If that weren’t enough, recall that last year’s end-of-year loss to the Wildcats kept Bielema’s team from a bowl game, meaning revenge is in play and current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances. Teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins than their opponent have been very successful, going 101-19 SU and 77-38-5 ATS (67%) since 2016.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ve got Illinois here, -7.5

Arizona State at Arizona

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

You might be noticing that I am referencing “mindset” a lot when it comes to these regular-season finales, as I think this is a time when teams realize what transpired this season. In no other game is the disparity between what could/should have happened and what actually did greater than this one between Arizona State and Arizona. The Sun Devils have come alive in 2024, going from 3-9 to 9-2 (9-2 ATS as well) under second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham. They’re in position to play for the Big 12 title next week and to do so, all they have to win at rival Arizona. That sounds like a bigger task than it actually may prove to be, as the Wildcats are 4-7 SU and 2-9 ATS in coach Brent Brennan’s first season and blew any chance of a bowl game last week by losing at TCU. Some of the same systems I just mentioned for Illinois apply here, plus this one: In Week 12 games or later, ranked road teams are 127-34 SU and 87-71-3 ATS (55.1%) versus non-ranked home teams since 2017. Digging deeper, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than six points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 109-15 SU and 69-52-3 ATS (57%) in that same Week 12-and-later time span.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I expect Arizona State (-9.5) to take care of business

West Virginia at Texas Tech

Saturday, noon ET (FS1)

I typically rely on four sets of strength ratings to handicap games each week. They are my power ratings, effective strength ratings, recent ratings and bettors’ ratings. All of them except the recent ratings are posted on the matchup pages of VSiN.com, while the recent ratings can be determined from the Makinen CFB Power Ratings page. Why do I mention this now? Because all four of those sets of ratings for this game are within two points of one another and all four show that the value here is on road underdog West Virginia. I love that consistency when it comes up, and the numbers for this one range from +0.8 to +2.7 for WVU. None of them reach the threshold of the actual line (+3.5). Moreover, there is a nice surge of bet volume on the Mountaineers as well (54%), and when the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). Head coach Neal Brown’s team is playing its best football of the year, having won three of their last four games while hitting the 30-point mark each time out. They look like a live dog to me.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll take West Virginia +3.5

Texas at Texas A&M

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+)

Can you imagine what the atmosphere is going to be like in College Station as the Aggies host hated Texas with a berth in the SEC title game on the line? Well, I can give you a good feel for it by sharing that as of Tuesday, tickets for the monumental clash were going for $525 on Vivid Seats. To me, the line (Texas -6) doesn’t really tell you how much pressure there will be on the Longhorns. Now granted, the Aggies’ loss last week at Auburn might have stolen some of the momentum, but the stakes for this game remain the same, and home-field advantage figures to mean a ton. As it is, in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 191-92 SU and 164-111-8 ATS (59.6%). In all honesty, most of my power numbers will indicate that Texas is better than Texas A&M, and by more than the line shows. However, this is a time where I believe the rivalry aspect and the stakes will keep it close. Plus, Texas A&M’s true home-field advantage was actually 4.1 points (21-6 in the last 27 games) in the study I did last week. For this one, it might be closer to 5.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll take Texas A&M as the 6-point home dog

Auburn at Alabama

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+)

I know the general consensus is that Alabama is cooked after last week’s ugly loss at Oklahoma. However, for this entire season, my strength ratings have shown the Tide to be a much better team than Auburn (in the +14 to +17 range). Regardless of whether or not QB Jalen Milroe plays, or is at limited ability, I still believe there is a big gap between these teams, and the banter that has already ensued will be enough to get Bama’s blood boiling enough to put up a solid showing. At 11.5-point favorites, the line is in a good spot historically for coach Kalen DeBoer’s team: In Week 12 games or later, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 105-12 SU but just 47-64-2 ATS (42.3%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 35-8 SU and 27-16 ATS (62.8%) since 2017. Plus, this series has shown a huge home dominance of late, not surprising to those who understand the rivalry. Home teams are on a 7-0 ATS streak in the Iron Bowl rivalry. I’ll look for that to go to 8-0.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll take Alabama -11.5

Washington at Oregon

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

How strange is it that the two teams that played for the national championship last year are both nearly three-touchdown dogs to close the regular season? For those of you concerned about laying such a big number with Oregon in this season finale versus Washington, I say don’t fret, as much of the info I have been looking at this week warrants the chalk line. For instance, if you recall last week’s true road-field article, or any of my recent picks with the Huskies, you know that I feel much differently about them at home than I do on the road. On the road for the last four seasons, they are just 6-13 ATS with a true road-field performance value of -5.8. At the same time, Oregon has a true home-field edge of +4.0. In other words, however you value these teams, their recent home-road performances mean you could easily add 9.8 points to the Ducks for playing this one in Eugene. As it stands, my power ratings say Oregon is about 15 points better. I also believe Washington’s offensive struggles will hamper them here as some of the best season-finale teams to fade have been the winning teams that don’t score a lot, as teams with winning records and scoring 24 PPG or fewer have gone just 17-18 SU and 10-26 ATS (27.8%) in their season finales. Finally, recall that Oregon lost not once, but twice to the Huskies last season, and current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances. Teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 101-19 SU and 77-38-5 ATS (67%) since 2016.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’m willing to lay the 18.5 points with Oregon 

Purdue at Indiana

Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (FS1)

Is Indiana the same team it was at this time last week? Or did the resounding loss to Ohio State knock some of the moxie from the Hoosiers? To be perfectly honest, I am concerned about the latter. Not to the point where I think coach Curt Cignetti’s team will blow a game as a nearly 30-point favorite, but more so that they could overlook this game against a hungry rival. I’m not sure there has ever been a line this high in this series, and I would have to think that the Boilermakers have to be a little insulted by it. Before you laugh that off, they did show some grit last week at Michigan State in putting up a lot of yardage and eventually getting the cover in East Lansing. Of course, there is heavy money on Indiana, 90% of the handle as of Tuesday. Dating to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%). This line means everything to the motivation if you ask me, as since 2015, home favorites of more than 20 points are 55-6 SU but just 23-38 ATS (37.7%) in season finales. Purdue also has a respectable 12-4 ATS record in its last 16 games as Big Ten dog of 20+ points. In the battle for the Old Oaken Bucket, I’m not comfortable with a line this big.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll take Purdue +29.5 at Indiana

Notre Dame at USC

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

The motivation of a potential playoff berth aside, hasn’t Notre Dame demonstrated that it is much better than USC and what this line is indicating? My current power ratings show Notre Dame at 68, USC at 54.5. That is a 13.5-point difference and doesn’t even take into account the Irish true road-field performance value of +1.5, 11th-best in the country. They are on a 12-4 SU and ATS surge in true road games. Looking historically at the stakes here, in season finales since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more, when the better team has been the road team in the matchup, the record has been 81-11 SU and 55-36-1 ATS (60.4%). Furthermore, in Week 12 games or later, ranked road teams are 127-34 SU and 87-71-3 ATS (55.1%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. Digging deeper, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than six points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 109-15 SU and 69-52-3 ATS (57%) in that same Week 12-and-later span.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 7.5 points with Notre Dame

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