College Football Week 2 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
A rough Week 1 has my college football best bets record sitting at 7-11 ATS (38.9%). Not the start I was looking for, but there were some very bad breaks last week that cost me some covers. Yes, I know it’s easy to focus on the ones that got away as to those you might have secured with good fortune, but truthfully, the Michigan State and Georgia losses were tough to swallow. The wins were quite comfortable. In sports betting, it’s often better to be lucky than good. That said, I press on to Week 2, and again, I will be including all 13 stability system plays in my best bets for the week. I have also found a handful of other games that catch my eye.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 5, 2025
Northern Illinois (+17.5) at Maryland
Maryland got me an easy winner on my best bets last week, but since the rout of FAU, I don’t like what has happened to the expected line of this game versus NIU. It seems like there has been a massive overreaction to the performance. In fact, I have the Terps two points better than a year ago on my Power Ratings, and I have NIU 5 points worse, and I still can’t get anywhere near an -17.5 point line. My PR number says Maryland -13.9. Looking closer at the potential reasons for overreaction, take a look at this system affecting head coach Mike Locksley’s team: CFB FBS teams that benefitted from a +5 turnover differential or greater but failed to score 44+ points in that game have responded by going just 38-56 ATS (40.4%) in their next contest since 2012. The Huskies have also been one of the best road dogs in all of college football under head coach Thomas Hammock, going 17-5 ATS.
College Football Best Bet: Northern Illinois should be far more competitive than +17.5
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 6, 2025
Liberty (-6.5) at Jacksonville State
A pair of the recent leading teams of Conference USA square off early in the 2025 season this week as Jacksonville State hosts Liberty. JSU was expected to be one of the more unstable situations this season, moving on from former head coach Rich Rodriguez into an entirely new staff and schemes. The Gamecocks put together a decent effort last week in losing at UCF 17-10, but remember that UCF is also a team undergoing a big transition for 2025. Liberty is a different story, bringing back 14 starters from last season for third-year coach Jamey Chadwell. The Flames are generally recognized as the favorites in CUSA and should be focused on step one to that goal with a win in this road favorite spot.
College Football Best Bet: Lay the 6.5 points with Liberty
Central Michigan at Pittsburgh (-22.5)
Central Michigan qualifies as a fade for a second straight week on our Stability System, as the Chippewas surprised everyone by upsetting San Jose State on the road this past Friday night. The Spartans’ effort was suspect to say the least as they seemed completely disinterested. CMU should see a far different level opponent this week in Pitt, who, to some, is a fringe CFP contender in 2025. The Panthers have 16 starters back for head coach Pat Narduzzi this fall and opened their campaign by ripping Duquesne 61-6. The line for this game sits at an uncomfortable -22.5 for Pitt, perhaps a sign that odds makers are trying to make this one difficult for bettors to back the chalk. Could be an underrated blowout spot.
College Football Best Bet: Lay the big number (-22.5) with Pittsburgh
Kennesaw State at Indiana (-35.5)
Indiana is one of six stability system qualifiers this week in which you’ll have to lay in excess of three touchdowns to back. Not only are these stability mismatches, but it seems odds makers are considering them outright mismatches as well. The Hoosiers are laying 36.5 to a Kennesaw State team that brings back just 12 starters from its 2-10 team of a season ago. The Owls nearly upset Wake Forest last week on the road, falling 10-9. It would seem that those “in the know” expect a far different outcome this week in Bloomington. Head coach Curt Cignetti’s team stumbled a bit out of the gate last week in beating Old Dominion 27-14, so it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect a more focused and explosive response here. After that lackluster offensive performance, I expect fireworks here.
College Football Best Bet: I’m backing Indiana (-35.5) despite the big number
Utah State at Texas A&M (-31.5)
I could see how it might be easy to discount Texas A&M’s 42-24 win over UTSA last week, especially since the Aggies didn’t cover, but it would also be erroneous. The offense was quite sharp, putting up over 400 yards in the victory, and you’ll see in a bit that the Roadrunners are also a stable team heading into 2025. Will the Aggies have what it takes to get us a win on a sizable point spread versus Utah State here? In this battle of the Aggies, the hosts will be looking to get a final tune-up before heading to South Bend next week for a revenge game. USU’s Aggies come off a 28-16 win over UTEP last week in head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s first game with the program. Playing in College Station is an entirely different animal. This feels like a line that’s moving because smart people know what’s coming.
College Football: Another huge favorite, Texas A&M -31.5, on my best bet list
Ole Miss (-10) at Kentucky
Lost in the shuffle of all the big game results from a week ago is the thought that the team that may have performed the best overall in the country quietly was Ole Miss. This is a team that was overlooked by a lot of preseason pollsters, assuming that the loss of QB Jaxson Dart and several other pro-bound talented players would doom the prospects for the Rebels in 2025. Instead, Dart’s backup, a stud himself, Austin Simmons, led the team to a 63-7 rout of Georgia State, piling up 695 yards of offense in the process. That leads us to this betting system. Over the last 12 years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 139-105 ATS (57%). For this week, they will have both a massive offensive potency advantage, as well as a revenge chip on their shoulder from a 20-17 loss to Kentucky in Oxford last October. The Wildcats are also off a win, 24-16 versus Toledo, but only gained 305 yards of offense, 220 on the ground. That rushing figure will be very difficult to achieve versus the Rebels’ perennially good defensive fronts. Regarding the revenge angle, double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 51-41 ATS (55.4%) since 2016. Ole Miss is the more talented team and is now motivated.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Ole Miss (-10) as the road chalk
Kansas (+6.5) at Missouri
After a scintillating effort in the season-opening win over Fresno State two weeks ago, Kansas sort of went through the motions last week in turning back Wagner 46-7, failing to cover the -46.5 point line. Could it have been a little more? Was the team perhaps looking ahead to this week’s rivalry tilt with Missouri? Was head coach Lance Leipold simply trying to give his team a healthy tune-up for the Mizzou contest? In my opinion, YES, YES, & YES. The Jayhawks are 2-0 and looking very explosive offensively, just like I favor in underdogs. They have scored 77 points already while yielding just 14. They also fall into a Week 2 system where teams’ lines move 52 points to the worse. It says that those teams whose lines are 52 points or more worse in Week 2 than Week 1 are on a 40-19 ATS (67.8%) run. I don’t have a whole lot of reasons to be against Missouri, other than perhaps the 8-12-1 home favorite mark under head coach Eliah Drinkwitz. This series hasn’t been played since 2011. I expect the renewal of the rivalry to be tight and spirited.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Kansas as the +6.5-point dog
Fresno State at Oregon State (-3)
As hard as it is to believe, Fresno State is already getting ready for its third game of the 2025 season for new head coach Matt Entz. The Bulldogs will also be a stability mismatch fade for the third week in a row. They struggled in the opener at Kansas, but they responded big time by crushing Georgia Southern at home last week. This week’s contest presents another road challenge in Corvallis, OR, against the Beavers of Oregon State. Historically, playing in Corvallis was as tough as it gets, but this past week, Cal came into town and cruised to a 34-15 win. New OSU QB Maalik Murphy, a transfer from Duke, did have a chance to get his feet wet, however, and played pretty well in throwing for 244 yards. Considering what Jayhawks QB Jaydon Daniels was able to do to FSU with a similar skill set, I would expect big numbers from Murphy here. Expect a bounce back from OSU.
College Football Best Bet: Lay the -3 points with Oregon State
Troy (+33.5) at Clemson
When I’m looking at the massive point spreads in any given college football week, I expect to see the huge underdog teams, those who are typically doormats from the MAC and Conference USA. Troy isn’t and has never been one of those teams. In fact, the Trojans have always been one of the most feisty road teams in recent years: Troy is 19-6 (76%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2021. As road dogs, they are on an 8-4 ATS run. In year two of the head coach Gerad Parker era, they are also looking far more stable than at this time in 2024, coming off a 38-20 win over Nicholls. Because of the massive point spread swing from that game to this one, they also qualify for this unique angle: Those teams whose lines are 52 points or more worse in game 2 than their opener are on a 40-19 ATS (67.8%) run. As far as Clemson is concerned, no one can accuse this team of firing on all cylinders last week, as they scored just 10 points on 261 yards vs. LSU. I’m not sure head coach Dabo Swinney can ask for more than getting a comfortable win here. Winning by 34 points or more seems a stretch, particularly with all of my numbers saying 31 points is a stretch.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take the +33.5 points with Troy
Bowling Green at Cincinnati (-21.5)
Another tough “hook” point spread to contemplate here as 0-1 Cincinnati lays 21.5 points to 1-0 Bowling Green. The Bearcats had a tough opener, facing an improved Nebraska squad in Kansas City, falling 20-17. Bowling Green beat Lafayette 26-7. Ironically, the point spread records for the teams are actually inverted, so it could be argued that Cincy actually played better last week in losing than BGSU did in winning. Considering the stability score levels of each team here, a 17-0 Bearcats advantage, that wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. Of note, the Falcons’ last three road games versus Power 4 opponents were all decided by 7 points or fewer, including tight losses at A&M and Penn State a year ago. This line has me wondering if somebody “knows something”.
College Football Best Bet: Looks like a tough line (Cincy -21.5), but winning isn’t easy
Texas State at Texas-San Antonio (-4)
Texas State has thrived under GJ Kinne, and in this, his third year, the Bobcats began their 2025 season by whipping Eastern Michigan at home 52-27. Kinne only has five starters back for this season, but it didn’t seem to hurt last week, in particular on offense, as his team piled up 392 yards on the ground and 606 overall in overwhelming EMU. It will be a different test this week against a UTSA team that played well in an ATS win at Texas A&M last week. Veteran QB Owen McCown is back for another go-around for the Roadrunners, and he leads nine starters back for head coach Jeff Traylor’s sixth team in San Antonio. With what is a fairly tight point spread, consider that Traylor’s teams are 29-4 at home in his tenure. This number is pretty low for that level of outright success.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take UTSA -4
Missouri State (+10) at Marshall
Fading Marshall (+39.5) last week at Georgia was one of the tougher losses to swallow ever for the stability system. The Herd were overwhelmed all day long and fell behind 45-0 before somehow rallying for the final score of the game after an 84-yard drive on the second-string Bulldogs defense. Prior to that drive, Marshall had mustered about 100 yards of offense. Well, we get another chance to fade new head coach Tony Gibson’s team this week, as they step into the chalk role against Missouri State, who got a rough welcome to the FBS level by getting clobbered 73-13 at USC. I find it interesting that oddsmakers have seen to it to give the Bears a chance here after allowing 597 yards of offense last week. Is it an egregious mistake, or does the instability of Marshall make this a very competitive game? History says the latter.
College Football Best Bet: Missouri State looks good as the +10-point underdog
Western Kentucky at Toledo (-7)
Western Kentucky has put up 98 points in a 2-0 start for the 2025 season. Now, that doesn’t seem like a thing an unstable team would do, does it? Well, consider the opposition. Game 1 vs. Sam Houston came against a similarly unstable team. Game 2 was against a rather lowly rated FCS team in North Alabama. This week will be the first time that WKU actually gets a certified challenge, and it’s on the road at Toledo. The Rockets are looking to bounce back after a competitive effort at Kentucky, an SEC program that obviously presented a bigger challenge than anything the Hilltoppers have seen so far. Head coach Jason Candle is in his 10th season with Toledo, and his team is again the favorite in the MAC with 13 starters back from last year’s 8-5 team. In his tenure, the Rockets are 41-11 at home and they should be able to score a bunch here.
College Football Best Bet: Lay the -7 points with Toledo
Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech (-1.5)
There seems to be a great deal of overreaction and perception being put into the line of the game between Vanderbilt and Virginia Tech this week. Let me explain. First, let’s go back to a year ago, when the Hokies opened up as 13.5-point road favorites at Vandy in week 1. Reversing a home field scenario, there would have meant VT as about a -19.5 point home favorite. Are you telling me that these teams are 18 points different than they were 365 days ago? If so, it’s all on the Commodores’ side, as the Hokies are in a relatively similar position, particularly with a healthy QB Keyon Drones operating. Second, head coach Brent Pry’s team may have started the season with a loss against an improved South Carolina team, but they were very competitive, winning the yardage battle 336-334 and only losing because of two key turnovers and allowing a punt return TD. And finally, third, it may not be what it used to be, but Blacksburg is still one of the toughest environments in all of college football, with Metallica’s Enter Sandman always offering a rude welcome to opponents. VT is 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS the last two seasons at home. I have a tough time assuming Vanderbilt is this much better.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Virginia Tech (-1.5) as the small home favorite
Louisiana Tech at LSU (-37.5)
People talk about “letdown games” all the time, but have they ever added the stability mismatch factor to the mix in such contests? Coming off its titanic win at Clemson this past Saturday, LSU welcomes in an unstable program from Louisiana Tech for game 2. The Bulldogs have new coordinators and just nine starters back for 2025, although it didn’t hurt them much in a 24-0 win over FCS SE Louisiana last week. This week’s contest on a Saturday night in Baton Rouge will be an entirely different animal to take on, especially with the Tigers flying high and ranked #3 in the country. It should be noted that LSU is 6-2 ATS under head coach Brian Kelly when laying -21 or more. He also took some offense to Clemson coach Dabo Swinney’s comments about neither LSU or Clemson playing well last week. Expect a huge offensive showing from the Tigers.
College Football Best Bet: Rout incoming, LSU -37.5 is the play for me
Ball State at Auburn (-43.5)
Auburn posted one of the more impressive road wins on the Week 1 slate, going into Waco and beating Baylor 38-24 behind a big outing from new transfer QB Jackson Arnold. The offense showed a punch that has been missing in recent years, and it seems that head coach Hugh Freeze may finally have the pieces in place to get this program back into elite territory. Like rival LSU, the Tigers are faced with the potential of a letdown on a huge point spread game in Week 2 as they welcome Ball State to town. The Cardinals shouldn’t prove to be much of a threat, as they come off a 31-0 loss at Purdue, and show a stability score of just three. Plus, including last week’s loss, they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games at Power 4 foes. It could be a long day at Jordan-Hare for BSU.
College Football Best Bet: Another tough number (-43.5), but if Auburn is for real, they roll
Georgia Southern at USC (total 60.5)
There was some major disappointment in watching Georgia Southern’s offensive effort last week versus Fresno State, as we have grown used to this team being pretty explosive on that side of the ball under head coach Clay Helton. In his three seasons, the Eagles have averaged a touch over 30 PPG. Last week, against what seemed to be a weak Fresno State defense, the week prior versus Kansas, GSU put up just 14 points on 242 yards and just 49 plays. To put that in perspective, they averaged over 68 plays from scrimmage on offense a year ago. Is this a new GSU or simply one that couldn’t get off the field versus FSU? I’ll lean to the latter and suggest that is even more reason to like the total Over against high-flying USC, who is 29-12 ATS (70.7%) Over the total in the last three seasons. The Trojans hung 73 points on Missouri State last week and have scored 36.7 PPG under head coach Lane Kiffin at home. Against the program’s former coach (Helton), I expect a shootout. All my numbers say at least 64 points here.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go Over 60.5 in Georgia Southern-USC
UCLA (-3) at UNLV
The debut for new UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava was a flatline disappointment this past week, as he and the Bruins were thrashed by Utah 43-10 at home. After being outgained 492-220 in that contest, you might be questioning the wisdom of oddsmakers installing them as favorites on the road against a UNLV team that is already 2-0. Again, consider the competition, as the Runnin’ Rebels have picked up wins over FCS Idaho State and rebuilding Sam Houston. Those behind the betting counter aren’t exactly trusting new head coach Dan Mullen’s project team. That said, we will definitely need a much better effort on both sides of the ball from head coach DeShaun Foster’s UCLA club to get this win for the stability system. Teams’ levels of stability can be the deciding factor in tight line games.
College Football Best Bet: UCLA (-3) gets a key win and cover
San Diego State (+1.5) at Washington State
Our final game on the Week 2 Stability Mismatch slate kicks off at 10:15 p.m. ET on Saturday night, featuring San Diego State and Washington State. Both teams are 1-0 after wins over FCS opponents a week ago, but Washington State looked every bit the part of an unstable team in its 13-10 defeat of Idaho. In fact, the Cougars were outgained in that game 221-211 and only mustered 3 yards rushing behind a re-tooled offensive line for new head coach Jimmy Rogers. At the same time, the Aztecs allowed just 95 total yards to Stony Brook in a dominating 42-0 decision. At this point, you have to wonder if the right team is favored, or if the line has been based more on what we saw last year from each of the teams. Remember, Washington State may have been 8-5 last year, but it was blown up in the offseason with its coach departing and mass transfers out. This isn’t the same WaSU.
College Football Best Bet: San Diego State (+1.5) looks like a very live underdog here
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