Week 2 College Football Betting Splits Systems and Picks:
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 603-666 ATS (47.5%). This angle has produced consistently over the last four seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in four straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARMY, APPALACHIAN STATE, OREGON, PURDUE, PENN STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, NOTRE DAME, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, TEXAS ST, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, NEBRASKA, UCLA, NAVY, LSU, AUBURN, UTAH, HAWAII
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the HOME side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 252-268 ATS (48.5%). In 2022 it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. Last year it was six games over .500. I personally believe that performance will prove to be a fluke. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page >75%, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARMY, VIRGINIA TECH, GEORGIA, NOTRE DAME, PITTSBURGH, UAB, WASHINGTON, OHIO, NEBRASKA, UCLA, CLEMSON, LSU, AUBURN, OLE MISS, USC
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 370-411 ATS (47.4%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA, OREGON, PENN STATE, UNLV, TULSA, NAVY, NORTH DAKOTA STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 68%+ majority of the handle was on small home favorites of 7 points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 84-66 ATS (56%). Bettors are wisely valuing home-field advantage in these games that are expected to be competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARMY, PITTSBURGH, TEXAS STATE, HAWAII
CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 154-138-1 ATS (52.7%). This is a pretty good percentage for a high-volume simple based system, and a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): APPALACHIAN STATE, ARIZONA STATE, DUKE, EASTERN MICHIGAN, DELAWARE, JACKSONVILLE STATE, GEORGIA STATE, OHIO STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past four seasons, this majority group has gone 154-134 ATS (53.5%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, OHIO STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. In most cases, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 90-71 ATS (55.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA, NOTRE DAME, WASHINGTON, NEBRASKA, LSU, AUBURN, OLE MISS, USC
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 67-51 (56.8%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 118 of 3,173 games.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHARLOTTE-OLE MISS
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 69-53 (56.6%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SOUTH FLORIDA-ARMY, BUFFALO-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, NORTH DAKOTA STATE-AIR FORCE, SACRAMENTO STATE-FRESNO STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the 2022 season, majority handle bettors have been quite sharp in two different contrarian ways for betting totals in non-conference games. When all majorities have favored Unders in totals of 55 or higher, they have gone 45-29 (60.8%). When greater than 80% majorities have gotten behind Overs for totals of less than 55, they’ve gone 61-35 (63.5%). These are very good performance levels, again going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ARIZONA STATE-TEXAS A&M, WESTERN KENTUCKY-GEORGIA, DELAWARE-VANDERBILT, TEXAS TECH-OREGON STATE
UNDER – MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE-MARSHALL
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