Today we have our first full Saturday slate of the College Football season with more than one hundred Week 2 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
12 p.m. ET: Oklahoma (-4.5, 43.5) at Michigan
Oklahoma (1-0, ranked 11th) just destroyed UTEP 51-0 in Week 1, covering as 40.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Michigan (1-0) just beat Western Michigan 13-12 on a last second, controversial Hail Mary touchdown but failed to cover as 28-point home favorites.
Way back in the summer, this line opened with Michigan listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. However, that line quickly got adjusted to Oklahoma -6.5 on the road following both team’s Week 1 showings.
The public is happy to fade the Wolverines based on last week’s performance and 83% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Sooners, who have the far better ranking.
However, despite the public pounding Oklahoma we’ve seen the Sooners fall from -6.5 to -4.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover if they’re already hammering Oklahoma to begin with? Because respected sharp action has sided with Michigan plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog.
Michigan is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Wolverines are only receiving 17% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised game on FOX.
At DraftKings, Michigan is receiving 17% of spread bets but 32% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Wolverines are only taking in 18% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the home dog.
Michigan offers additional buy-low value as an unranked home dog who failed to cover their previous game against a sell-high trendy favorite who did cover their previous game.
The Wolverines also have correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
3:30 p.m. ET: Alabama (-10, 48) at Kentucky
Alabama (1-0, ranked 12th) just dismissed East Carolina 48-10, easily covering as 28.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kentucky (1-0) just took down Youngstown State 45-13, covering as 22.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Alabama listed as a 10.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is too short and 63% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the wood with the Crimson Tide.
However, despite receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen Alabama fall from -10.5 to -10.
This signals sharp reverse line movement on Kentucky plus the hook, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Kentucky is receiving 37% of spread bets but 57% of spread dollars. At Circa, Kentucky is taking in 52% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars. Both books are showing wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of the home dog plus the points.
Kentucky offers buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent.
The Wildcats offer additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
7:30 p.m. ET: Ohio State at Texas (-1.5, 49.5)
Ohio State (1-0, ranked 1st) just demolished Ball State 56-3, covering as 50.5 home favorites. Similarly, Texas (1-0, ranked 4th) just dominated Texas State 59-7, covering as 30-point home favorites.
This line opened with Texas listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and 60% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with the top ranked Buckeyes.
However, despite the majority of tickets supporting Ohio State we’ve seen Texas remain relatively stagnant at -1.5.
This signals a sharp “fade the trendy dog” line freeze in favor of the Longhorns, as oddsmakers refuse to move the line down toward a pick’em or hop the face to make Ohio State a small favorite even though the Buckeyes are the popular play.
Texas offers notable “bet against the public” value as the Longhorns are only receiving 40% of spread bets at DraftKings in the most heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game of the night on ABC.
At Circa, Texas is receiving 46% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor.
Sharps have specifically looked to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game by playing the Longhorns on the moneyline at -125.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 186-50 (79%) straight up with a 9% ROI since 2016.
This is also a revenge spot for the Longhorns, who lost to the Buckeyes 14-7 at Ohio State in last year’s season opener.
