The first week of college football is all but complete. In a weekend of results, what sticks out the most is the inaccuracy of the betting market.

Multiple notable moves – Clemson, UConn and Texas A&M to name a few – were dead-wrong. There is nothing predictive from those results, but it is an interesting note in the early portion of the season.

 

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This week, we have a few opening numbers worth noting, and some strong overreactions to analyze, so let’s dive right into our report.

Week 2 College Football Odds Report

Bowling Green Falcons at Penn State Nittany Lions

Open: PSU (-32, 46.5) | Current: PSU (-32, 50)

It is somewhat surprising to see the market jump on this total early. Penn State suffocated West Virginia on Saturday. The Nittany Lions limited the Mountaineers to 246 total yards and 3.7 yards per play. Penn State might have totaled 457 yards in the win, but its defensive effort is a big reason why the total stayed under. It should be able to put forth a similar effort against Bowling Green this weekend. Perhaps playing at home in better weather will allow the Nittany Lions’ offense to do the heavy lifting for the total.

Texas Longhorns at Michigan Wolverines

Open: TEX (-3.5, 43.5) | Current: TEX (-6.5, 45)

There are certain matchups this week which have seen surprising adjustments. This is not one of them. Michigan averaged just 4.2 yards per play in its win over Fresno State. Davis Warren looked underwhelming as the starting quarterback. The senior averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt and tossed an interception on an underthrown deep ball. The Wolverines’ weak offensive performance has clearly caused the market to adjust its expectations, and as a result the line has moved three points in Texas’ direction.

Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins

Open: MD (-10, 48) | Current: MD (-9.5, 45)

Those that shape the market have some egg on their face after a tough first week, and Maryland was another example of incorrect line movement. The Terps had the line move six points against them on Saturday, but they covered every number in a 50-7 win over the Huskies of UConn. On the other side, Michigan State scuffled in an ugly win over Florida Atlantic. Despite the offensive outburst from Maryland, the total dropped three points within minutes of opening on Sunday. This could be the market believing in the Spartans’ defense, which limited FAU to 3.4 yards per play and 2-of-15 on third downs.

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at Ole Miss Rebels

Open: MISS (-38, 60.5) | Current: MISS (-41, 62.5)

Lane Kiffin feels no guilt in running up the score on lesser competition, as evidenced by his team’s performance against Furman. Jaxson Dart threw his fifth touchdown in the first half with his team leading 45-0 with 1:34 left in the first half. The Rebels also continued to run tempo and throw late into the 76-0 win over the Paladins. That is great for bettors to see, and it’s likely the reason why we saw this line bet up by a field goal on Sunday.

Marshall Thundering Herd at Virginia Tech Hokies

Open: VT (-14, 46.5) | Current: VT (-17, 47.5)

Usually a game like this wouldn’t make the highlighted matchups, but Virginia Tech finds itself in a massive spot on Saturday after a loss to Vanderbilt. This would set up as a classic bounceback spot for the Hokies, and the market seems to believe that is the case. Circa Sports opened this line at Virginia Tech -14 and the market pushed it up a field goal to -17 relatively quickly on Sunday. Those looking to get in on the bounce-back are not getting any value getting in late.

Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Open: WF (-2, 48.5) | Current: WF (-2, 55)

There is no move to report on the side here, but this total saw the largest move of the day. Circa Sports opened this game with a total of 48.5 and within minutes this number was up to 55 at our home base. The consensus total has settled in at 54.5 as of Sunday evening. Totals usually never get as tight as sides do as the season progresses, but it is still shocking to see such a large move regardless.

Houston Cougars at Oklahoma Sooners

Open: OU (-26, 55.5) | Current: OU (-28, 52.5)

UNLV is better than the market expected, but that was still an extremely poor performance from Houston on Saturday. The Cougars averaged just 5.5 yards per pass and 1.5 yards per rush in a 27-7 loss to the Rebels. After a performance like that, it isn’t a shock to see the market downgrade Houston. Especially when you consider Oklahoma’s performance against Temple. Jackson Arnold threw four touchdowns on 25 pass attempts in a 51-3 beatdown of the Owls. Houston is one of the worst teams in the country, and the rating has been bumped on Oklahoma. As a result, this number is up to -28 and the total has dropped a field goal.

Boise State Broncos at Oregon Ducks

Open: ORE (-20, 57.5) | Current: ORE (-18, 61)

On the surface, Oregon was extremely underwhelming in its win over Idaho. The Ducks led by just a field in the fourth quarter and failed to cover in a 24-14 victory. The final score is misleading though, as Oregon totaled 487 yards and averaged 5.5 yards per play. The market has downgraded the Ducks due to the poor result, but this is shocking. Last week, Oregon was a 24-point favorite. Not only did this contest open -20 on Sunday, but the market knocked it down even further after it opened. It’s not like Boise State was flawless last week either, as it allowed 461 yards and 45 points in a win – but failed cover – over Georgia Southern.

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