Rutgers vs. Boston College
You never want to overreact to one game, but it is impossible not to react to what Rutgers did in Week 1. UMass did not win a game last season while averaging 11.1 points per game. They won two games in 2024, both against FCS competition. Because Army was still an Independent in 2023, the Minutemen hadn’t beaten a power-conference team since joining the FBS ranks in 2012. UMass beat Rutgers 37-21. In other words, you can understand why this Rutgers vs. Boston College line sits north of a field goal.
The Eagles didn’t have a great Week 1 data point either, losing 34-15 to Cincinnati while surrendering 254 yards on the ground. Bill O’Brien’s team did outgain the Bearcats, but also had 20 more pass attempts and nearly 140 more passing yards. That means we have two teams desperate to have a better showing on the field on ESPN2 on Friday night.
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 8, 8:15 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 2 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Rutgers vs. Boston College Prediction
Pick: Rutgers +3
O’Brien and the Boston College defense should be very well-prepared for this game, as Dylan Lonergan transferred to Rutgers and won the QB competition to replace Athan Kaliakmanis at the position. Lonergan completed 66.9% of his passes with a 12/5 TD/INT ratio for the Eagles last season. He threw three interceptions in the game against UMass and only completed 55% of his tosses. He was also sacked four times. He was only sacked 15 times at BC.
So, there’s definitely some familiarity there for the BC coaching staff with Lonergan and he does know some of the guys he’ll be up against on defense, as the Eagles returned five starters and a handful of backups. O’Brien also went to football lifer Ted Roof in hopes of elevating this defense, which was terrible last season and especially terrible in conference play. BC allowed 6.5 YPP and almost 470 yards per ACC game.
I wrote up the ACC for our 2026 College Football Betting Guide and didn’t have a very positive view of the team for this season on either side of the ball. As expected, Saginaw Valley State transfer Mason McKenzie won the QB competition because of his dual-threat nature. McKenzie led the team with 78 yards on 20 carries and threw for 223 more against Cincy, but also threw a pick and got sacked four times. It would have been nice to see Liberty transfer Evan Dickens with some more touches, but the game state limited him to 11 carries for 47 yards. He ran for just shy of 1,400 yards last season with the Flames.
For all of the problems that BC had in Week 1, they pale in comparison to what Rutgers left the season opener trying to figure out. Lonergan was benched and AJ Surace came in and went 6-of-9 for 77 yards with a TD. Lonergan was the second lowest-rated QB per PFF behind Bryce Underwood among Power Four QBs in Week 1, so there is something of a quarterback controversy already. Lonergan wasn’t great, but the Scarlet Knights also ran for just 1.2 yards per carry against a team that allowed 221.3 rushing yards per game last season and over five yards per carry.
Kirk Ciarrocca is going to need a much better showing here against the Eagles, otherwise the heat on his seat will start to turn up. Given that Cincinnati ran for 5.5 yards per carry and 254 yards on BC’s defense last week, this would be a good time for that ground game to get going. The BC front only had one sack and four tackles for loss, so Rutgers should be able to get a better push. At least, you would think so, even though the data point against UMass says otherwise.
Rutgers vs. Boston College Prediction
Ultimately, this is a pretty big line adjustment. I updated my power ratings and came up with Boston College -1, as I would have had Rutgers -2.5 prior to last week’s abysmal showing. Prior to the season, our own Steve Makinen had this line Rutgers -3.3. Losing to UMass is certainly more damning than losing to Cincinnati, especially with how much Rutgers was favored by in that game last Thursday, but this line feels like an overreaction and the Scarlet Knights are the value side.
Pick: Rutgers +3
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 2 games on our Pro Picks Page.
