The 2026 US Open men’s semifinals take center stage at Arthur Ashe Stadium on Friday, September 11, with Alexander Zverev facing Karen Khachanov before Frances Tiafoe meets Ben Shelton in an all-American showdown. Below, we’ll break down the latest odds, head-to-head history, hard-court form, and matchup-specific betting angles for both semifinal clashes at Flushing Meadows, including our best bets.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Karen Khachanov vs. Alexander Zverev
Zverev owns a 6-3 edge over Khachanov overall, including a 5-3 advantage on hard courts. Zverev has also won four of their past five meetings since 2021 and enters this semifinal as the clear favorite.
Zverev’s advantages as both a server and returner are massive when breaking down this matchup. Over the last 52 weeks, Zverev has an 87.6% hold rate, while Khachanov’s number is 85.7%. Zverev also owns a 19.6% break rate in that span, while Khachanov is down at 17.2%.
Zverev’s game also matches up well with Khachanov’s from the back of the court. If there’s any shot most likely to break down in this match, it’s the Khachanov forehand. That’s especially true with Zverev’s game built on extending rallies and moving opponents around. Khachanov is prone to making errors when he’s unable to set his feet.
Khachanov’s backhand is often a strength, but Zverev has one of the best two-handers in the sport. And while Khachanov’s conditioning is a real asset in best-of-five tennis, Zverev is more than capable of matching him physically in a long match. An argument can be made that Zverev is the fittest player on the ATP Tour.
There’s simply a lot Khachanov will be up against here. However, that is baked into the price, with Zverev as high as -602 on the moneyline and laying 5.5 games. With that in mind, the way I’d play it is by getting a little creative. Rather than taking something for this match alone, I’d jump on Zverev to win the tournament.
Bet: Zverev To Win US Open (+100 – 3 units)
Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton
This will be the fifth meeting between Tiafoe and Shelton and their third at the US Open. In 2023, Shelton earned a 6-2, 3-6, 7-6 (7), 6-2 quarterfinal win over his older compatriot. Then, in 2024, Tiafoe got some payback in a thrilling 4-6, 7-5, 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-3 victory in the Round of 32. Shelton leads the overall head-to-head 3-1, including a straight-sets win in Washington last year.
Shelton also comes in off a massive quarterfinal victory over Carlos Alcaraz, a marathon that did not end until 3 a.m. That result understandably contributed to the pricing. But in a head-to-head rivalry that has featured so many close sets, it’s hard to get on board with the idea that Tiafoe has less than a 30% chance of winning, which is what the implied probability looks like at +250.
Shelton is undeniably the better server, but Tiafoe can run through his service games when he’s on. Quite frankly, Tiafoe seems to always be on his game when playing in New York. He’ll also be going up against a weaker returner in Shelton, giving him a very good chance of pushing himself to the business end of individual sets. Once he’s there, I’d give him a real shot at taking them.
Tiafoe is also a little better than Shelton when it comes to solving problems on court, and he brings more variety to the table. It’s also hard not to value the fact that Tiafoe has a very strong backhand in a matchup with a lefty. When Shelton goes crosscourt with his forehand, he’ll be hitting into a sturdy wing. Tiafoe’s weaker forehand also won’t be as big of a problem when going into Shelton’s backhand, which is the least reliable groundstroke in this matchup.
Tiafoe also happens to be a much smaller underdog to win the first set, which suggests oddsmakers believe he has a real shot at going up 1-0. Even if you believe Tiafoe has less in the gas tank than Shelton, I’d feel great holding a +250 ticket with a player that would need only two of the final four sets after taking the opener.
Of course, I do have Shelton to win this tournament at 19-1, so I don’t feel like rooting against the lefty with only two matches left. With that in mind, this isn’t a real best bet for me. It’s simply a lean.
LEAN: Tiafoe ML (+250 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
