College Football Week 2 Predictions:

There’s still one game left in Week 1, technically, but part of my betting strategy is hitting lines early in the week and then coming back late week to see which ones have moved the most (creating more value) on other plays. We had a great Week 1, cashing Notre Dame +3, Northwestern -2.5, San Jose State -3, and Northwestern Under 42.5 and only pushing on Minnesota +2 because of two missed field goals.

Now, let’s look at our college football Week 2 predictions based on my T Shoe Index projections:

 

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Northwestern (-3) vs Duke, O/U 39

Friday 9:00 p.m. ET (FS1)

As mentioned, we cashed Northwestern -2.5 against MAC favorite Miami (OH) last week. Duke is coming off a game against Elon where it looked about as bad as expected this year after losing head coach Mike Elko and QB Riley Leonard. Duke got downgraded a half point, while Northwestern got almost a full-point bump after their defensive performance against the Redhawks. TSI projects Northwestern -5.5 here. Although I think it’ll be a low-scoring affair, as we saw last week, the Wildcats’ defense is good enough to cover a number while not lighting the scoreboard up. 

Best Bet: Northwestern -3 (Play at 3 or better)

Iowa (-3) vs Iowa State, O/U 36

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

I will preface this pick by saying you absolutely should not watch this game unless you are an Iowa or Iowa State fan, as it projects to be an absolute snoozefest, as these matchups often are. Iowa looked like same old, same old, until halftime last week and then putting on a scoring barrage against poor Illinois State in the second half, winning 40-0 (I had to sweat an under 40.5 bet!) while Iowa State suffocated North Dakota to the tune of a 21-3 win. TSI projects Iowa -5 with a total of, wait for it…25.5! I mentioned on a podcast appearance this summer that I made a formula adjustment with Iowa in mind, which would allow me to project a broader range of totals, rather than be clustered around “FBS average” of about 55. This game is exactly what I had in mind, and I’m ready to cash another Iowa under.

Best Bet: Under 36 (Play to 35)

Ohio State (-38) vs Western Michigan, O/U 54

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (BTN)

Both of these teams played extremely weird games last week. On one hand, the highly-touted Buckeyes played with their food a little bit against Akron and did not look as sharp as some expected; meanwhile, Western Michigan almost played spoiler to Wisconsin in Madison, so one of two things is probably true: either the MAC and Big Ten are much better and worse than expected (doubtful), or last week is going to prove to be an outlier an these teams will become more of who we thought they were. I’ll take the latter, which means the Buckeyes’ offense shouldn’t rely on defensive scores to put up a 50-burger, and Western Michigan’s defense will revert to the putrid, 132nd-rated unit in the TSI defensive ratings in 2023.

Best Bet: Over 54 (Play to 56)

For more College Football Week 2 predictions, visit the College Football Week 2 Hub at VSiN.com.

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